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Post by Ian Noble on May 18, 2014 10:16:59 GMT
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Post by Ian Noble on May 18, 2014 12:54:31 GMT
I'm away from home and can't test it right now Josh but thanks for doing that!
Does it properly behave like the lottery though? Does it only move teams up into the top 3 spots if they get lucky and then assign the rest on regular season record?
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Post by Charles Barkley on May 18, 2014 13:59:23 GMT
Are you using the At Risk simulator? I think that one is very customizable and was on all of the computers in the finance lab where I went to school. I'd imagine a simulator like that is on all college computers to best mimic the financial markets
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Post by Charles Barkley on May 18, 2014 14:00:58 GMT
But you can just make a regular excel sheet without any add-on programs and make one, it might be tricky but if I played with it for a bit, I could probably do it.
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Post by Charles Barkley on May 18, 2014 14:22:37 GMT
On another note:
"In the event that teams finish with the same record, each tied team receives the average of the total number of combinations for the positions that they occupy. In 2007, the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Portland Trail Blazers tied for the sixth worst record. The average of the 6th and 7th positions in the lottery was taken, resulting in each team getting 53 combinations (the average of 63 and 43). Should the average number not be an integer, a coin flip is then used to determine which team or teams receive the extra combination(s). The result of the coin flip is also used to determine who receives the earlier pick in the event that neither of the tied teams wins one of the first three picks via the lottery."
Since Philly and Houston are tied with the same record, the average of the combination (7 chances and 6 chances out of 1000) is used. Because the average of 6 and 7 is 6.5, which is not an integer, a coin flip is needed to decide if Philadelphia or myself receives the 12th slot or the 13th slot.
LETS SEE THAT COIN FLIP lol
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Post by Charles Barkley on May 18, 2014 14:29:38 GMT
Also, because San Antonio and Utah ended with the same record, we use the average of the possibly combinations in which they can receive the top 3 selections. It is 63 and 43 respectively, so they both receive the same odds, 5.3 %. Are we using a different odds system than the one they used last year? Because SAS should have an original chance of 4.3% and the Hawks should have a chance of 2.8%. Now, because the Jazz and Spurs tied, and the average of their odds is an integer, they receive that average (5.3%) as their odds. This is all from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery#Process |
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on May 18, 2014 14:31:15 GMT
I'm away from home and can't test it right now Josh but thanks for doing that! Does it properly behave like the lottery though? Does it only move teams up into the top 3 spots if they get lucky and then assign the rest on regular season record? You'll have to paste a formula into three separate cells to determine picks 1-3 and then just assign the rest by hand (since there's no probability involved after that) @charles- It's just a basic formula, I'm not familiar with the stuff you're talking about. I basically live my life on excel, so I'm decent with this kind of stuff |
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Nov 30, 2024 11:27:29 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2014 14:31:33 GMT
Boy, look out if Houston wins the lottery and Rose gets healthy!
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Post by Charles Barkley on May 18, 2014 14:32:52 GMT
Also, I like this spread sheet, I got NOP and HOU the first sim I did. Question though, after we in put the equation and delete it and replace it with just the name, do we then go to column A and delete the team that received the pick? This way a team can't receive the 1st and 2nd? Meaning if team 1 gets the first pick, do we delete their odds before we run the equation for the second pick? I got one where team 2 had the first and third picks, I think. |
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Post by Charles Barkley on May 18, 2014 14:35:09 GMT
I'm away from home and can't test it right now Josh but thanks for doing that! Does it properly behave like the lottery though? Does it only move teams up into the top 3 spots if they get lucky and then assign the rest on regular season record? You'll have to paste a formula into three separate cells to determine picks 1-3 and then just assign the rest by hand (since there's no probability involved after that) @charles- It's just a basic formula, I'm not familiar with the stuff you're talking about. I basically live my life on excel, so I'm decent with this kind of stuff yeah, the one thing I learned in college is that excel is life. we used this simulator to customize investment portfolios. it seems like it is easier than what you used, but they both accomplish the same thing. If you made your equation based off the odds Ian provided, you may need to change it as the odds he gave us are not correct if going by the Wikipedia listed draft lottery odds. |
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on May 18, 2014 14:35:41 GMT
Also, I like this spread sheet, I got NOP and HOU the first sim I did. Question though, after we in put the equation and delete it and replace it with just the name, do we then go to column A and delete the team that received the pick? This way a team can't receive the 1st and 2nd? Meaning if team 1 gets the first pick, do we delete their odds before we run the equation for the second pick? I got one where team 2 had the first and third picks, I think. I think in the real NBA they just draw again if they draw a combination of a team already chosen. If you did delete the cells, I think you'd end up with the same odds anyway, but it's probably more work than just re-pasting the formula until you get a team that hasn't already won a spot. |
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on May 18, 2014 14:37:40 GMT
You'll have to paste a formula into three separate cells to determine picks 1-3 and then just assign the rest by hand (since there's no probability involved after that) @charles- It's just a basic formula, I'm not familiar with the stuff you're talking about. I basically live my life on excel, so I'm decent with this kind of stuff yeah, the one thing I learned in college is that excel is life. we used this simulator to customize investment portfolios. it seems like it is easier than what you used, but they both accomplish the same thing. If you made your equation based off the odds Ian provided, you may need to change it as the odds he gave us are not correct if going by the Wikipedia listed draft lottery odds. Yea I just threw this together this morning, I'm gonna spend a few minutes and clean it up right now. So Utah and SAS get the same odds and then Philly and Houston get the same odds but we need a coinflip for that one since it's not divisible by two. We will also need a coinflip in the event that neither Utah or SAS win a spot in the top 3, because then the coinflip will decide who gets the higher pick. |
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Post by Alex English on May 18, 2014 14:44:55 GMT
Can I suggest we use the lottery simulator for 2007? espn.go.com/nba/lottery2007/mockdraftIt matches our standings much better. Using 2013 Utah currently has almost double the chances of winning over myself despite the fact that we are tied. |
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Post by Alex English on May 18, 2014 14:49:08 GMT
If Josh sets up his spreadsheet to match our standings exactly then that is the best case scenario. But the 07 lottery looks to be a better option over 2013.
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Post by Charles Barkley on May 18, 2014 14:49:14 GMT
yeah, the one thing I learned in college is that excel is life. we used this simulator to customize investment portfolios. it seems like it is easier than what you used, but they both accomplish the same thing. If you made your equation based off the odds Ian provided, you may need to change it as the odds he gave us are not correct if going by the Wikipedia listed draft lottery odds. Yea I just threw this together this morning, I'm gonna spend a few minutes and clean it up right now. So Utah and SAS get the same odds and then Philly and Houston get the same odds but we need a coinflip for that one since it's not divisible by two. We will also need a coinflip in the event that neither Utah or SAS win a spot in the top 3, because then the coinflip will decide who gets the higher pick. Yupp. I mean, I'd be ok with a 0.65% chance and just splitting it with Philly if he'd want to do that. But I noticed they don't carry the odds out to the hundredths for some weird reason. Don't know if that specifically would change things or not. I don't know where Ian got his odds from, and I'm not 100% confident in what Wikipedia has; maybe I'll check the NBA page and the rest of the internet for some draft lottery odds, seeing as I drank a lot of coffee and have no work to do. |
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Post by Charles Barkley on May 18, 2014 14:51:24 GMT
Can I suggest we use the lottery simulator for 2007? espn.go.com/nba/lottery2007/mockdraftIt matches our standings much better. Using 2013 Utah currently has almost double the chances of winning over myself despite the fact that we are tied. So every draft is weighted differently according to the standings? If so, it wouldn't be too hard to weight ours like they do theirs. |
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on May 18, 2014 15:03:16 GMT
basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/lottery_simulator this is gonna be the easiest one Way easier than any of the shit you guys are trying to do. D5 Team
| Real Life Team
| Boston
| Milwaukee
| Orlando
| Philadelphia
| New Orleans
| Orlando
| Charlotte
| Utah
| | Memphis | Boston
| Utah
| LA Lakers
| San Antonio
| Sacramento
| Atlanta
| Detroit
| New York
| Cleveland
| Washington
| Philly via NOP
| Phoenix
| Denver
| Philadelphia
| Orlando via NY Knicks
| Houston
| Minnesota
| LA Clippers
| Phoenix
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Post by Alex English on May 18, 2014 15:13:02 GMT
basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/lottery_simulator this is gonna be the easiest one Way easier than any of the shit you guys are trying to do. D5 Team
| Real Life Team
| Boston
| Milwaukee
| Orlando
| Philadelphia
| New Orleans
| Orlando
| Charlotte
| Utah
| | Memphis | Boston
| Utah
| LA Lakers
| San Antonio
| Sacramento
| Atlanta
| Detroit
| New York
| Cleveland
| Washington
| Philly via NOP
| Phoenix
| Denver
| Philadelphia
| Orlando via NY Knicks
| Houston
| Minnesota
| LA Clippers
| Phoenix
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Except the odds here don't match. The 2007 lottery link I posted is better for matching standings. |
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on May 18, 2014 15:14:27 GMT
Also WTF is with the Boston Percentage on some sites saying it's 10% and not 8.8%. Weird.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on May 18, 2014 15:14:49 GMT
Also WTF is with the Boston Percentage on some sites saying it's 10% and not 8.8%. Weird.
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on May 18, 2014 15:15:10 GMT
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on May 18, 2014 15:19:35 GMT
Bullshit Josh, no way you are getting 3rd pick I am!
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Post by Charles Barkley on May 18, 2014 15:42:45 GMT
Why aren't we using the default odds? then fixing the ties? Why are we using other years draft simulators?
SAS and UTA get 5.3 % chances at a top 3 pick, HOU and PHI have a coin flip to see who gets 0.7% odds and 0.6% odds. If neither UTA or SAS receive a top 3 pick, then a coin flip is needed to see who receives the higher pick in the lottery. The coin flip between HOU and PHI determines who has the better odds and the better pick for the draft.
Seems pretty simple as the draft lottery is weighted with a specific percentage for each slot. Ties are settled by averages if it is an integer, if it isn't an integer, we use a coin flip.
It seems like the only reason we are using a different simulator is because we didn't have the ability to customize the lottery via excel. But we do now, so no need to be using a 2007 simulator or a 2013 simulator.
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Post by Charles Barkley on May 18, 2014 15:46:27 GMT
Very good. Also, looked up what happens in the event of a team gets picked again, i.e. team 1 comes up 1st and 3rd like it did here, and they just disregard it and do as you did in the video. Therefore, deleting the teams on the side has no impact on the equation. |
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Post by Ian Noble on May 18, 2014 17:33:06 GMT
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Post by Ian Noble on May 18, 2014 20:44:46 GMT
The draft lottery has now been held. I will be posting the results over the next 14 days.
A video of the selection process will be posted once we're done.
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Post by Ian Noble on May 18, 2014 20:54:27 GMT
Coin toss results in the event that neither team breaks into the Top 3:
12th and 13th: Philadelphia will draft ahead of Houston.
6th and 7th: San Antonio will draft ahead of Utah
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Post by Alex English on May 18, 2014 21:26:09 GMT
Sweet. So unless he moves up then Josh's 4 guard lineup cost him 2 spots in the draft.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on May 18, 2014 21:31:34 GMT
The draft lottery has now been held. I will be posting the results over the next 14 days. A video of the selection process will be posted once we're done. Not to give it away, but let us know, are you disappointed with the results. |
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Post by Ian Noble on May 18, 2014 21:35:05 GMT
The draft lottery has now been held. I will be posting the results over the next 14 days. A video of the selection process will be posted once we're done. Not to give it away, but let us know, are you disappointed with the results. Obviously if I was happy or sad either way, that would give away what happened!  |
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25% Boston Celtics - 
15.6% Houston Rockets (via NOP) - 
11.9% Charlotte Hornets - 
8.8% Memphis Grizzlies - 
5.3% Utah Jazz - 
5.3% Denver Nuggets (via SAS) - 
2.8% Atlanta Hawks - 
1.7% New York Knicks - 
0.8% Phoenix Suns - 
0.7% Philadelphia 76ers - 
13. Philadelphia 76ers - 
15. Milwaukee Bucks - 
16. New Orleans Pelicans (via IND) - 
23. Minnesota Timberwolves - 
25. Orlando Magic (via LAL) - 
26. Chicago Bulls - 
27. LA Lakers (via DEN) - 
29. Miami Heat - 
Brooklyn Nets
Denver Nuggets
