Kevin Durant - OKC (BR)

[Alex English]

^{Oklahoma City Thunder - Kevin Durant}

Kevin Durant has agreed to re-sign with the Oklahoma City Thunder to a 5 year contract worth $201,449,812. The final year is a player option.

Year 1: $34,682,550
Year 2: $37,283,741
Year 3: $40,080,022
Year 4: $43,086,023
Year 5: $46,317,475 (PO)

This was an extremely difficult and thoroughly debated decision. Kevin received many offers but it became clear that four stood out. The debate was between OKC, the Charlotte Hornets, the Houston Rockets, and the Minnesota Timberwolves.

All four had strong offers with a lot of benefits. To try and make it as succinct as possible, the problem we had to solve was this: Under what circumstances would Durant leave OKC to sign with another team? The answer being, to go to a team which offered a significantly improved chance at winning a championship.

Considering that, we concluded neither Houston, nor Minnesota offered an objectively better shot at a title compared to OKC. However the Charlotte Hornets did. They have the best roster to surround KD with, and they play in the weaker Eastern Conference.

That wasn't the only factor however, otherwise KD would be joining the Hornets. Money and team environment are important factors too. Charlotte's biggest weakness is that they can't offer a max contract. The best financial option were Durant to sign with Charlotte, would likely be a 2+1 deal that gets him Bird rights before signing another bigger contract after that. Given the cap space Charlotte had, they would be offering a 3 year / $88 million dollar contract. Compare this with the guaranteed $200 million contract Durant is signing, and even a 3 year / $112 million dollar deal over the same three year span with OKC, and it's a very large difference.

Given his past actions, we know Durant will take a pay cut in order to win, but we still concluded that to be too large of a financial difference that was not made up for with Charlotte's greater shot at a title.

Then there was the other secondary factor of team environment. This was debated, and the Russell Westbrook factor was considered. Would Durant join the guy in D5 that he left in the NBA? This will undoubtedly be a contentious issue, so I will leave up to everyone else to consider their own opinion because I think it's a moot point given the financial constraints the Hornets have.

I will simply say that the Westbrook issue was debated, but was not the ultimate reason for why we eliminated the Hornets bid for Durant.

That left us with OKC vs HOU vs MIN.

This brings us back to the first, and most important factor. Do either of those teams offer KD an improved shot at a championship? We said no. KD on all three of those teams result in a roughly equal chance at winning it all when you compare the overall talent on all three rosters. You can compound that with the issue that Houston also falls short of being able to offer a max contract, and that Minnesota has a history of injury issues.

After this, the consensus conclusion emerged that Durant would stay with OKC. Even considering all of the above, the consensus conclusion was not unanimous, however five of the six participants either strongly, or lightly leaned in favour of OKC. After reaching this point, we considered the decision to have been made. Durant will stay with the Thunder.

Thank you to everyone who showed interest in Durant, especially the four teams that were heavily debated. Also thank you to everyone else for your patience, this has taken up an enormous amount of time that has left us with hardly any signings almost two weeks into free agency. This decision, and the hopefully imminent Paul George decision, should clear the way for more dominoes to fall much more quickly.

[Vlade Divac]

I have no vested interest in this decision and am happy to see Durant go back to OKC, but taking his talents to Minnesota, in my opinion, would give Durant a legit chance to beat Golden State. Staying in OKC, going to Houston, or even Charlotte would not. Why would Durant want to play with overrated Kevin Love or a bunch of rookies that may never pan out? You are grossly underestimating a Minnesota team with Bledsoe/McCollum/Durant/Griffin/Capela with a solid bench and room to grow due to their youth.

[Chauncey Billups]

I agree with Vlade that he would have a better chance winning with Minnesota but it wouldn't be guaranteed. Factor in the money and OKC edges out. I think it was the right choice. 

[Walt Frazier]

The main thing that upsets me here is NOT ONCE did I get a response from Durant telling me where I stood. Pretty shitty.

I don't agree with the decision but I can live with that, I guess. But as a bidding team, all I was ever told is that Kevin received my offer.

[Andrei Kirilenko]

Jul 12, 2017 18:35:22 GMT Vlade Divac said:

I have no vested interest in this decision and am happy to see Durant go back to OKC, but taking his talents to Minnesota, in my opinion, would give Durant a legit chance to beat Golden State. Staying in OKC, going to Houston, or even Charlotte would not. Why would Durant want to play with overrated Kevin Love or a bunch of rookies that may never pan out? You are grossly underestimating a Minnesota team with Bledsoe/McCollum/Durant/Griffin/Capela with a solid bench and room to grow due to their youth.

I posted this in the Durant discussion, so I will share it here as well. You may agree/disagree with some of the nuances, or even disagree that this is a valid way of looking at it at all, but take it for what its worth:

Jul 9, 2017 23:26:37 GMT Andrei Kirilenko said:

OKC - his team is actually better than I was thinking. Tyreke (82) - Matthews (79) - Durant (97) - Plumlee (80) - DMC (93). The Knight rating change hurts him, but having Plumlee at an 80 is going to make him a lot better this year. This reflects all current rating change discussions and I dont see anyone over/under rated. The total rating in this lineup is 431.

CHA - lineup would be Westbrook (96) - Middleton (84) - Durant (97) - Serge (85) - Nerlens (78). Total rating is 440 and has Dragic (82) on the bench. However, Serge at an 85 seems high. Everyone else is pretty fairly rated.

MIN - lineup would be Bledsoe (87) - McCollum (82) - Durant (97) - Blake (89) - Capela (72). Total rating is 427, which is actually worse than the current OKC team. If you factor in a Capela rating change to ~78, this team becomes slightly better, but only by 2 points. Is it really enough to convince Durant to leave OKC?

HOU - lineup would be Giannis (89) - Gordon (79) - Durant (97) - Love (88) - Biyombo (78). Total rating is 431, actually better than Minnesota. However, Biyombo is probably overrated at a 78 and should be a ~75, making this lineup slightly worse.

CHA - 440

OKC - 431

HOU - 431 --> 428ish

MIN - 427 --> 433ish

Just on the championship aspect alone, Charlotte is the clear favorite. I think it would be a clear-cut decision if Westbrook wasn't there and if he had cap room. The other three teams are actually extremely similar, and all have similar benches. Unless he is going to Charlotte, I don't think there is any sort of argument to be made for Durant leaving OKC to try to win a championship.

[Alex English]

Jul 12, 2017 18:37:44 GMT Walt Frazier said:

The main thing that upsets me here is NOT ONCE did I get a response from Durant telling me where I stood. Pretty shitty.

I don't agree with the decision but I can live with that, I guess. But as a bidding team, all I was ever told is that Kevin received my offer.

Yes, this is true. I've been very busy with my current work schedule, interviewing and getting a new job as of last week, and starting to plan my move to a new city in order to start this job a month from now. My communication with all the bidders left a lot to be desired. I apologize for that.

However, I don't believe it affected the final outcome of this decision.

[Kevin Hollis]

Jul 12, 2017 18:44:43 GMT Alex English said:

Jul 12, 2017 18:37:44 GMT Walt Frazier said:

The main thing that upsets me here is NOT ONCE did I get a response from Durant telling me where I stood. Pretty shitty.

I don't agree with the decision but I can live with that, I guess. But as a bidding team, all I was ever told is that Kevin received my offer.

Yes, this is true. I've been very busy with my current work schedule, interviewing and getting a new job as of last week, and starting to plan my move to a new city in order to start this job a month from now. My communication with all the bidders left a lot to be desired. I apologize for that.

However, I don't believe it affected the final outcome of this decision.

If you were wondering, Walt, I did not get any feed back either. We were all left sitting and waiting and I thought about messaging more to see what was going on, but I figured it would only do harm as everyone is busy in life and free agency.

[Glenn Robinson]

Jul 12, 2017 18:44:43 GMT Alex English said:

I've been very busy with my current work schedule, interviewing and getting a new job as of last week, and starting to plan my move to a new city in order to start this job a month from now.

Congrats on the new job!

[Vlade Divac]

Jul 12, 2017 18:39:44 GMT Andrei Kirilenko said:

Jul 12, 2017 18:35:22 GMT Vlade Divac said:

I have no vested interest in this decision and am happy to see Durant go back to OKC, but taking his talents to Minnesota, in my opinion, would give Durant a legit chance to beat Golden State. Staying in OKC, going to Houston, or even Charlotte would not. Why would Durant want to play with overrated Kevin Love or a bunch of rookies that may never pan out? You are grossly underestimating a Minnesota team with Bledsoe/McCollum/Durant/Griffin/Capela with a solid bench and room to grow due to their youth.

I posted this in the Durant discussion, so I will share it here as well. You may agree/disagree with some of the nuances, or even disagree that this is a valid way of looking at it at all, but take it for what its worth:

Jul 9, 2017 23:26:37 GMT Andrei Kirilenko said:

OKC - his team is actually better than I was thinking. Tyreke (82) - Matthews (79) - Durant (97) - Plumlee (80) - DMC (93). The Knight rating change hurts him, but having Plumlee at an 80 is going to make him a lot better this year. This reflects all current rating change discussions and I dont see anyone over/under rated. The total rating in this lineup is 431.

CHA - lineup would be Westbrook (96) - Middleton (84) - Durant (97) - Serge (85) - Nerlens (78). Total rating is 440 and has Dragic (82) on the bench. However, Serge at an 85 seems high. Everyone else is pretty fairly rated.

MIN - lineup would be Bledsoe (87) - McCollum (82) - Durant (97) - Blake (89) - Capela (72). Total rating is 427, which is actually worse than the current OKC team. If you factor in a Capela rating change to ~78, this team becomes slightly better, but only by 2 points. Is it really enough to convince Durant to leave OKC?

HOU - lineup would be Giannis (89) - Gordon (79) - Durant (97) - Love (88) - Biyombo (78). Total rating is 431, actually better than Minnesota. However, Biyombo is probably overrated at a 78 and should be a ~75, making this lineup slightly worse.

CHA - 440

OKC - 431

HOU - 431 --> 428ish

MIN - 427 --> 433ish

Just on the championship aspect alone, Charlotte is the clear favorite. I think it would be a clear-cut decision if Westbrook wasn't there and if he had cap room. The other three teams are actually extremely similar, and all have similar benches. Unless he is going to Charlotte, I don't think there is any sort of argument to be made for Durant leaving OKC to try to win a championship.

I am not accusing anyone of foul play by any means; Although, I can relate to non-communication by player agents. In my opinion, Capela is flat-out better than Ibaka right now with much more room to grow, McCollum averaged 23 ppg last year and should probably be rated higher than Middleton, Bledsoe has room to grow still, and I personally think Blake will play more on the perimeter than he did last year with Paul and perform much better. Factor relations between Westbrook and Durant and I can see why Durant did not choose Charlotte. It will be interesting to see if Paul George's trade to the Thunder helps the Hornets sign George; especially since Minnesota will be in the running since Walt is his PA.

Overall, OKC would be my second choice and I think it is a solid and conservative decision that Edmund Burke would be proud of. My biggest objection, however, is the notion that Durant could win more with Charlotte than Minnesota. Clearly, Minnesota is an ascending at every single position while Charlotte is not. The ONLY thing that could make Charlotte more attractive the presence of Brandon Ingram, but he needs to show something before I agree with that logic.

[Brian Scalabrine]

I obviously have no dog in this fight but I'm just curious:

If Charlotte had cleared full max space would KD have signed with him?

[Alex English]

Jul 12, 2017 19:00:19 GMT Brian Scalabrine said:

I obviously have no dog in this fight but I'm just curious:

If Charlotte had cleared full max space would KD have signed with him?

That would have been a hell of a debate lol. I can't speak for the others, but I probably would have voted yes for Charlotte if they had room for a max deal. They were #2 for me after OKC as it is. Having the money would have likely done it for me.

It's tough to debate hypotheticals though.

[Jeremiah Hill]

Jul 12, 2017 19:00:19 GMT Brian Scalabrine said:

I obviously have no dog in this fight but I'm just curious:

If Charlotte had cleared full max space would KD have signed with him?

I mean, Westbrook won a championship here in D5. If he had won one in OKC in real life KD wouldn't have resigned with GSW. 

I don't think there is any doubt that Charlotte has the better situation even with the Westbrook thing and all money being the same its a slam dunk given Durant's actions in the past. I don't think Kevin would argue that decision much. Luckily the Charlotte cap situation worked out for him. 

[Chauncey Billups]

Jul 12, 2017 19:31:47 GMT Alex English said:

Jul 12, 2017 19:00:19 GMT Brian Scalabrine said:

I obviously have no dog in this fight but I'm just curious:

If Charlotte had cleared full max space would KD have signed with him?

That would have been a hell of a debate lol. I can't speak for the others, but I probably would have voted yes for Charlotte if they had room for a max deal. They were #2 for me after OKC as it is. Having the money would have likely done it for me.

It's tough to debate hypotheticals though.

So his relationship with Russell didn't/wouldn't have played a factor?

[Jeremiah Hill]

Jul 12, 2017 19:36:56 GMT Chauncey Billups said:

Jul 12, 2017 19:31:47 GMT Alex English said:

That would have been a hell of a debate lol. I can't speak for the others, but I probably would have voted yes for Charlotte if they had room for a max deal. They were #2 for me after OKC as it is. Having the money would have likely done it for me.

It's tough to debate hypotheticals though.

So his relationship with Russell didn't/wouldn't have played a factor?

Russell won a championship here in D5 last season basically by himself, I don't think Westbrook and KD have played together in D5 in years either. Kind of a weird role playing thing but the situations are much different. 

[Alex English]

Jul 12, 2017 19:36:56 GMT Chauncey Billups said:

Jul 12, 2017 19:31:47 GMT Alex English said:

That would have been a hell of a debate lol. I can't speak for the others, but I probably would have voted yes for Charlotte if they had room for a max deal. They were #2 for me after OKC as it is. Having the money would have likely done it for me.

It's tough to debate hypotheticals though.

So his relationship with Russell didn't/wouldn't have played a factor?

Sure it would have been talked about. It was talked about anyway. In my opinion, I don't think that would have been a big enough issue to deny Charlotte all on it's own if they would have otherwise had the best offer. Like Jeremiah said though, Charlotte's cap situation worked against him and in OKC's favour.

[Kevin Hollis]

I already told Alex that I wouldn't have been salty if Durant left - it was a tough decision. I would have been disappointed, but not pissed at anyone given real life circumstances. I am definitely glad things worked out in the end for me, but they easily could have gone another way and I realized that. I think you. Anyone can only really be pissed if you are blindsided by a decision, this wouldn't have been that way. I am interested to see how the pg debacle will go though as I am pretty sure bird rights aren't in play there.

[Vlade Divac]

Jul 12, 2017 19:36:26 GMT Jeremiah Hill said:

Jul 12, 2017 19:00:19 GMT Brian Scalabrine said:

I obviously have no dog in this fight but I'm just curious:

If Charlotte had cleared full max space would KD have signed with him?

I mean, Westbrook won a championship here in D5. If he had won one in OKC in real life KD wouldn't have resigned with GSW. 

I don't think there is any doubt that Charlotte has the better situation even with the Westbrook thing and all money being the same its a slam dunk given Durant's actions in the past. I don't think Kevin would argue that decision much. Luckily the Charlotte cap situation worked out for him. 

Can you honestly look me in the face and tell me you would rather have Ibaka than Capela and Middleton instead of McCollum?

[Kevin Hollis]

Maybe the latter

[Jeremiah Hill]

Charlotte is only 2 million off from being able to sign Paul George to a full max. Gonna be interesting to see what happens. He can for sure do Jae Crowder. Would be interesting to see if he considers renouncing Ibaka's bird rights to try and fit Paul George. Would leave a hole at the 4 or 3 but he'd have like 12 more million to play around with to sign guys or absorb salary. Could trade Ingram and signed players for a package of role players.

[Jeremiah Hill]

Jul 12, 2017 20:12:11 GMT Vlade Divac said:

Jul 12, 2017 19:36:26 GMT Jeremiah Hill said:

I mean, Westbrook won a championship here in D5. If he had won one in OKC in real life KD wouldn't have resigned with GSW. 

I don't think there is any doubt that Charlotte has the better situation even with the Westbrook thing and all money being the same its a slam dunk given Durant's actions in the past. I don't think Kevin would argue that decision much. Luckily the Charlotte cap situation worked out for him. 

Can you honestly look me in the face and tell me you would rather have Ibaka than Capela and Middleton instead of McCollum?

I would rather have Capela instead of Ibaka, but I would pick Middleton over McCollum. 

[Jeremiah Hill]

Westbrook, Middleton and Paul George vs Paul, Butler and Kawhi vs Davis, Beal and Gasol would be an interesting Eastern conference.

[Vlade Divac]

Jul 12, 2017 20:20:12 GMT Jeremiah Hill said:

Jul 12, 2017 20:12:11 GMT Vlade Divac said:

Can you honestly look me in the face and tell me you would rather have Ibaka than Capela and Middleton instead of McCollum?

I would rather have Capela instead of Ibaka, but I would pick Middleton over McCollum. 

How? McCollum has averaged over 20 PPG the last two seasons while Middleton's highest is 18 PPG. I know you are going to bring up position, but I personally think you place too much value on that. You commented on my draft grade that me taking three forwards was smart, but I took those three players because I thought they were the best available players. Honestly, I think Mathias Lessort will play center in the NBA rather than PF given his offensive skill-level.

[Vlade Divac]

Jul 12, 2017 20:22:04 GMT Jeremiah Hill said:

Westbrook, Middleton and Paul George vs Paul, Butler and Kawhi vs Davis, Beal and Gasol would be an interesting Eastern conference.

Yeah, let's just give Charlotte a good team. I think Minnesota with Durant or PG versus Golden State would be a better Western Conference Finals.

[Charles Barkley]

Jul 12, 2017 18:39:44 GMT Andrei Kirilenko said:

Jul 12, 2017 18:35:22 GMT Vlade Divac said:

I have no vested interest in this decision and am happy to see Durant go back to OKC, but taking his talents to Minnesota, in my opinion, would give Durant a legit chance to beat Golden State. Staying in OKC, going to Houston, or even Charlotte would not. Why would Durant want to play with overrated Kevin Love or a bunch of rookies that may never pan out? You are grossly underestimating a Minnesota team with Bledsoe/McCollum/Durant/Griffin/Capela with a solid bench and room to grow due to their youth.

I posted this in the Durant discussion, so I will share it here as well. You may agree/disagree with some of the nuances, or even disagree that this is a valid way of looking at it at all, but take it for what its worth:

Jul 9, 2017 23:26:37 GMT Andrei Kirilenko said:

OKC - his team is actually better than I was thinking. Tyreke (82) - Matthews (79) - Durant (97) - Plumlee (80) - DMC (93). The Knight rating change hurts him, but having Plumlee at an 80 is going to make him a lot better this year. This reflects all current rating change discussions and I dont see anyone over/under rated. The total rating in this lineup is 431.

CHA - lineup would be Westbrook (96) - Middleton (84) - Durant (97) - Serge (85) - Nerlens (78). Total rating is 440 and has Dragic (82) on the bench. However, Serge at an 85 seems high. Everyone else is pretty fairly rated.

MIN - lineup would be Bledsoe (87) - McCollum (82) - Durant (97) - Blake (89) - Capela (72). Total rating is 427, which is actually worse than the current OKC team. If you factor in a Capela rating change to ~78, this team becomes slightly better, but only by 2 points. Is it really enough to convince Durant to leave OKC?

HOU - lineup would be Giannis (89) - Gordon (79) - Durant (97) - Love (88) - Biyombo (78). Total rating is 431, actually better than Minnesota. However, Biyombo is probably overrated at a 78 and should be a ~75, making this lineup slightly worse.

CHA - 440

OKC - 431

HOU - 431 --> 428ish

MIN - 427 --> 433ish

Just on the championship aspect alone, Charlotte is the clear favorite. I think it would be a clear-cut decision if Westbrook wasn't there and if he had cap room. The other three teams are actually extremely similar, and all have similar benches. Unless he is going to Charlotte, I don't think there is any sort of argument to be made for Durant leaving OKC to try to win a championship.

For what it's worth, Gordon has an increase pending as does Warren

[James Kay]

Jul 12, 2017 20:28:58 GMT Vlade Divac said:

Jul 12, 2017 20:20:12 GMT Jeremiah Hill said:

I would rather have Capela instead of Ibaka, but I would pick Middleton over McCollum. 

How? McCollum has averaged over 20 PPG the last two seasons while Middleton's highest is 18 PPG. I know you are going to bring up position, but I personally think you place too much value on that. You commented on my draft grade that me taking three forwards was smart, but I took those three players because I thought they were the best available players. Honestly, I think Mathias Lessort will play center in the NBA rather than PF given his offensive skill-level.

I'd rather have Ibaka than Capela. You guys grossly underestimate the importance of shooting. Capela is good but he's playing with one of the best passers in the game. Plus Ibaka is flat out better defensively.

McCollum edges out Middleton, IMO, but just barely. Middleton isn't quite the scorer McCollum is, but he's much better defensively and can play the 2,3, or 4.

[Jared Montini]

Ibaka>Capela
CJ>Kris

[James Kay]

Fair decision, I guess, but Durant did sign IRL for even less than I offered him. To me that's a pretty clear indicator that winning > money.

Regardless, a lot of work went into this obviously. Thanks for the consideration. Congrats OKC!

[Vlade Divac]

Jul 12, 2017 20:36:07 GMT James Kay said:

Jul 12, 2017 20:28:58 GMT Vlade Divac said:

How? McCollum has averaged over 20 PPG the last two seasons while Middleton's highest is 18 PPG. I know you are going to bring up position, but I personally think you place too much value on that. You commented on my draft grade that me taking three forwards was smart, but I took those three players because I thought they were the best available players. Honestly, I think Mathias Lessort will play center in the NBA rather than PF given his offensive skill-level.

I'd rather have Ibaka than Capela. You guys grossly underestimate the importance of shooting. Capela is good but he's playing with one of the best passers in the game. Plus Ibaka is flat out better defensively.

McCollum edges out Middleton, IMO, but just barely. Middleton isn't quite the scorer McCollum is, but he's much better defensively and can play the 2,3, or 4.


While I agree with you that Middleton and McCollum are fairly close because the former is a bigger player, I don't think Ibaka really that good anymore. His blocks are wayyyy down, he never was nor is a very good man defender or an exceptional rebounder, and now he is simply a three point shooter. Honestly, he reminds me of Kevin Love without the passing ability/skill.

[James Kay]

Jul 12, 2017 20:39:55 GMT Vlade Divac said:

Jul 12, 2017 20:36:07 GMT James Kay said:

I'd rather have Ibaka than Capela. You guys grossly underestimate the importance of shooting. Capela is good but he's playing with one of the best passers in the game. Plus Ibaka is flat out better defensively.

McCollum edges out Middleton, IMO, but just barely. Middleton isn't quite the scorer McCollum is, but he's much better defensively and can play the 2,3, or 4.


While I agree with you that Middleton and McCollum are fairly close because the former is a bigger player, I don't think Ibaka really that good anymore. His blocks are wayyyy down, he never was nor is a very good man defender or an exceptional rebounder, and now he is simply a three point shooter. Honestly, he reminds me of Kevin Love without the passing ability/skill.

You're just revealing your ignorance and reliance on box score numbers. Even as his block numbers have decreased, his rim protection and FG% allowed has remained on par with the best in the game (Gobert, Whiteside, etc). He's not a monster rebounder, just average, but he's been drawn outside the paint as teams shoot more threes so of course his boards are down. He's still one of the best jump shooting big men in the league. o

[Chauncey Billups]

I think both Ibaka and Capela are good players in their own right and both have their strengths.

Clint Capela has a high ceiling, but atm Ibaka has the higher floor.