Trailblazers - Nuggets

[Brandon Roy]

Mar 20, 2016 3:03:57 GMT Alex English said:

Mar 20, 2016 2:55:53 GMT Danny Longley said:

Switching to accept as well, Wall not being eligible for 30% changes a lot for me. And yeah, I also think Aldridge has more to gain by opting in now and then opting out on his 2nd PO than just jumping out at the first chance.

So I think this deal is officially accepted now. Crazy. I still want to keep Paul George somehow lol.

45 pts by George today..

[Walt Frazier]

Mar 20, 2016 2:36:24 GMT Alex English said:

Mar 20, 2016 1:03:27 GMT Walt Frazier said:

If he were signing the contract fresh right now, yes, he should take the guaranteed long-term money over the risk. But, this offseason, he won't really be taking any risk, IMO. He'll be healthy (or he won't, which in that case, if it's a serious injury, he opts in of course) and will know he can get a max by opting out. He's not taking a risk. He's getting the same length remaining contract for more money, significantly more.

How much of the basketball side do you think should be considered? Right now you are completely ignoring it, and based on what I've already posted in here, the basketball is more important to LaMarcus than the money.

But even just considering the money, he actually maximizes his ability to earn money by opting in, then opting out out of the fourth year of his deal. By then the cap will have jumped again and will overcome whatever money he left on the table during this offseason because he gets two max contract years going into his late 30s instead of having to hit free agency again at 36 years old. Let's play out Aldridge's career assuming he gets the max whenever he hits free agency.



By opting in and hitting free agency 2 years later, he can earn $30 million dollars more. That's with the assumption LMA gets a 2 year $60 million contract as a 36 year old, which is probably generous. All these numbers are pretty ridiculous though, I'm not sure we'll actually be giving guys massive contracts like this. However, any amount taken off these numbers reduces the value of money overall anyway, so no matter how you draw it up I don't see why Aldridge would choose to opt out this year.

I recognize the risk is there, I just don't think you guys are actually considering the full picture. You're just looking at the short term money while ignoring the long term options and the basketball side too. Then some of you are probably just getting wet at the idea that Aldridge could opt out and I wouldn't be able to sign him.

The one assumption you are making is that he will still get the full max after opting out in 2-3 years. Right now, he's still young enough to get that max. At that time, perhaps he does get injured, perhaps his game isn't at the level it has been, a myriad of other factors could have occurred. There's actually more risk in the whole "waiting to opt out" thing than there is opting out this year, again assuming he stays healthy IRL for the rest of this season.

Timing is right for him this season to still get a max contract. In 3 years, it definitely may not be. Could it still be? Yes. But it feels less likely for me. So, the numbers you use are, at the very least, likely a bit high.

Gets harder and harder to guess what's going to happen as you start looking 5 years out. But, this offseason compared to 2-3 years from now is murky enough (which is why LMA may take the money this offseason instead of waiting 2-3 years). Looking 5 years ahead is really tough.

I get your point, I'm not saying it's a slam dunk per se that he'll leave, but I also think the chance may be higher than you're thinking.

As for the "basketball side" of things, sure. Your team is great. We can't deny that. Perhaps playing in Texas was a bigger deal than even the "basketball side" of things? Can we say with utmost certainty that it was not? He definitely did want to play there. And, yes, he definitely did want to play on a good team that cared about basketball. But, joining Giannis doesn't sound terrible in Houston. Somehow, joining IT2 and possibly RJax (and at the very least, JR would have more cap with Bynum clearing out to sign someone in addition to Aldridge) doesn't sound that horrible.

Look, yes your team is better. But you're not in Texas. You're a lot better, but you're not in Texas.

Those teams do have at least one good player, and they ARE in Texas. It's all going to factor. We'll also have to see how your team meshes, could be a factor too.

It's risky, and it's not a slam dunk he returns or that he leaves, but it's a damn big risk because there is a LOT at stake.

Good luck man.

[Alex English]

Mar 20, 2016 3:15:08 GMT Brandon Roy said:

Mar 20, 2016 3:03:57 GMT Alex English said:

So I think this deal is officially accepted now. Crazy. I still want to keep Paul George somehow lol.

45 pts by George today..

[Jeremiah Hill]

Mar 20, 2016 2:36:24 GMT Alex English said:

Mar 20, 2016 1:03:27 GMT Walt Frazier said:

How much of the basketball side do you think should be considered? Right now you are completely ignoring it, and based on what I've already posted in here, the basketball is more important to LaMarcus than the money.

But even just considering the money, he actually maximizes his ability to earn money by opting in, then opting out out of the fourth year of his deal. By then the cap will have jumped again and will overcome whatever money he left on the table during this offseason because he gets two max contract years going into his late 30s instead of having to hit free agency again at 36 years old. Let's play out Aldridge's career assuming he gets the max whenever he hits free agency.



By opting in and hitting free agency 2 years later, he can earn $30 million dollars more. That's with the assumption LMA gets a 2 year $60 million contract as a 36 year old, which is probably generous. All these numbers are pretty ridiculous though, I'm not sure we'll actually be giving guys massive contracts like this. However, any amount taken off these numbers reduces the value of money overall anyway, so no matter how you draw it up I don't see why Aldridge would choose to opt out this year.

I recognize the risk is there, I just don't think you guys are actually considering the full picture. You're just looking at the short term money while ignoring the long term options and the basketball side too. Then some of you are probably just getting wet at the idea that Aldridge could opt out and I wouldn't be able to sign him.



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There is absolutely no evidence to support Lamarcus Aldridge values basketball more than money. 

Did he leave one year of max money on the table? Yes. However he still has a maximum 4 year deal. This to me says that although he does value basketball, by no means does it mean he does not value having a maximum value contract. 


So requirement one of LaMarcus Aldridge is that he has a maximum deal of at least 4 years. 


Did he leave for a title contender? Yes. 


Title Contender could reasonably be considered to be a requirement or at least a team that becomes a title contender with him on it (lots of teams like that now in D5)


However I do not think that being a title contender was his primary reasoning for choosing the Spurs. The number one reason is because the Portland Trailblazers organization is actually pretty bad. They have screwed up many picks, they have had injury problems on their teams due to them hiring terrible medical staffs etc. 


Close to home. Now I think this was more of a perk than anything resembling a requirement. If the Lakers front office wasn't a joke I fully believe he would have flipped a coin. Either way there are only 4 teams in Texas. The Spurs, The Rockets, The Mavericks and The Grizzlies (lol jk). 


There is nothing within driving distance of San Antonio. Seriously Texas is a hell hole I've been there. So no other teams can claim this perk. There are currently no teams in D5 in Texas that meet the contender requirement and also have an opening for LMA, Dirk is a C/PF though they could move Chandler and try and reload, K Love is a PF and the Spurs are doing something towards being a contender but definitely aren't only 1 piece away.

Now if we look towards the future we have to consider the landscape of D5 and how things work here and imagine that his agent (pretend here) knows the landscape as well. No one in this league gives max deals to players over 32. It just doesn't happen, this is his last big contract within D5. Someone will give him a max contract to take him to 34 years old but they will not give him a max contract that takes him to 38 years old especially given that his game I feel will transition more like David West than like a Dirk or a Tim Duncan. 


In summary his requirements are basically to a team that will Contend, Has a well run consistent organization, and that can offer him a 4 year max deal. He really likes the perk of living in Texas.


So basically he's going to Dallas the only contender in the league who has managed to work near the cap or at it nearly as masterfully as the real life Spurs. You heard it here first people. This was likely to be true regardless of whether he was traded or not. 

 

[Jay Z]

I think I've seen Jeremiah reference 4 year max contract twice. Are we matching the NBA and switching to a 5 year max on BR players, 4 for everyone else because the rules still show 6 and 5.

[Kevin Hollis]

Mar 20, 2016 7:29:19 GMT Jay Z said:

I think I've seen Jeremiah reference 4 year max contract twice. Are we matching the NBA and switching to a 5 year max on BR players, 4 for everyone else because the rules still show 6 and 5.

He is saying four year max as a minimum; which, is a five year in d5.

[Clyde Drexler]

It'll be weird seeing Wall and LMA on the Nuggets considering me and Alex had a history of meeting each other in the playoffs.

Looks like Brandon has made this team his own now!

[Ian Noble]

EI will accept also. I'm not sure I would want to open up my team to this much uncertainty though.

Trade passed.

[Hanamichi Sakuragi]

Until now, I am dreaming of a simulator that have "chemistry" on it

[Brian Scalabrine]

Interesting to look back on this deal now.

While both teams have had great success since, I think it might be a rare lose-lose trade.

Portland gets Kyrie in exchange for Wall and lost PG

Denver got Wall but lost Kyrie and PG while LMA is on the downturn of his career.

Imagine if Alex decided to stand pat, does PG ever leave the Rocky Mountains?

With LMA's decline, would Wall have left Portland in Free Agency for greener pastures?

Do PG, Harden and Kyrie carry Alex to a championship the last 2 years?

Do potential PG suitors go harder after Durant instead, causing him to leave OKC?

This is one of the most fascinating trades in D5 History. Changed the entire trajectory of the league.