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Post by Alex English on Mar 19, 2016 17:43:59 GMT
I am fine taking the risk with Wall and Aldridge opting out because the last offseason showed we completely missed the mark on the player option issue. Lebron was the only person to play the short term game to try and maximize his potential earnings.
Everyone else chose long term guaranteed money. Including LaMarcus Aldridge himself who signed for 4 years and $84 million. He left a lot of money on the table compared to playing the cap game and maxing his dollars. Here in D5 he's guaranteed 5 years and close to $140 million. Who the hell opts out from that? Nobody. Certainly not LaMarcus Aldridge if he'll also choose a long term option of $84 million. His 4th year opt out might make a little more sense since the cap could be between $110-$120 million by then, even then though, it would depend a lot on what's actually going on around that time.
Same thing with John Wall, opting out means giving up 5 years and almost $150 million. The way players behaved in the NBA last offseason shows that nobody would give up such a huge amount of guaranteed money.
I think basically everyone with player options will opt in. The only exceptions are probably Kyle Lowry and Paul Millsap because they're being underpaid enough that they can nearly double their salary.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2016 17:46:55 GMT
Agree with Alex 100%. Even players like Jimmy butler took long term deals last year, and it should be like that here.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2016 18:37:39 GMT
Only if they could sign a larger long term deal, would a player want to opt out.
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Post by Jay Z on Mar 19, 2016 19:03:17 GMT
Agree with Alex 100%. Even players like Jimmy butler took long term deals last year, and it should be like that here. These are not the same scenarios. Butler had 2 choices, go for a short term deal to get payed under the new max, or sign with the current max. The risk was an injury could derail his earning power in a future deal and he took the safe route with the current max (and the Bulls through in a player option to keep him from going the riskier route). A player like LA already has the money guaranteed to him, he gets to survey the NBA landscape and go after the fattest paycheck. If he opts in he makes about $140 mill over 5 years. If I'm doing the math correctly, if he opts out, he can sign a new max deal (assuming he falls under the 7-9 and not the 10, not sure how that falls) starting at $27 mill ($90 mill x 30%), with 11% raise per year, comes out to about $170 mill over 5 years. So stay in Denver at his current contract or pick his destination and bring in $30 million more over the same span of time? If i get the numbers wrong that's one thing, but if they're spot on then there is no reason (barring an injury that hurts LA's worth in FA) for LA to opt in and give up money on his LAST major nba contract. |
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Post by Charles Barkley on Mar 19, 2016 19:03:22 GMT
Stop assumimg the cap will do anything. You guys let this trade go through and Wall leaves then what. Just because the cap is going up does not mean it will continue to go up. Portland gives up the most here to get George who it looks is back to his old self. Irving and Wall are an even call except for Walls salary of course. Deng and Anderson is about equal as long as health isnt a factor. Im not sure who wins or who will get or be better with this deal. I think Denver wins short term. This is a fair trade and i would accept. I just hope these guys just didnt screw their playoff dreams. They were both in it. Denver had to get better to be a contender which he does. Only reason this trade is made. Portland does not get better in my opinion. I hope the teams chemistry will work out. Teams are trading because of GS getting Lebron. Thanks to Miami and its stupid move. Miami might not get in the east. Cant wait until this passes and to see the outcome. Go Spurs!! LOLOLOL |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2016 19:08:32 GMT
Agree with Alex 100%. Even players like Jimmy butler took long term deals last year, and it should be like that here. These are not the same scenarios. Butler had 2 choices, go for a short term deal to get payed under the new max, or sign with the current max. The risk was an injury could derail his earning power in a future deal and he took the safe route with the current max (and the Bulls through in a player option to keep him from going the riskier route). A player like LA already has the money guaranteed to him, he gets to survey the NBA landscape and go after the fattest paycheck. If he opts in he makes about $140 mill over 5 years. If I'm doing the math correctly, if he opts out, he can sign a new max deal (assuming he falls under the 7-9 and not the 10, not sure how that falls) starting at $27 mill ($90 mill x 30%), with 11% raise per year, comes out to about $170 mill over 5 years. So stay in Denver at his current contract or pick his destination and bring in $30 million more over the same span of time? If i get the numbers wrong that's one thing, but if they're spot on then there is no reason (barring an injury that hurts LA's worth in FA) for LA to opt in and give up money on his LAST major nba contract. Yeah, players that have an opportunity to look for a long term deal that nets them a shitload more money will probably opt out. But I don't think that scenario can play out here... Player options are determined BEFORE free agency, correct? So a player can't test potential offers or talk to teams before deciding their player option, as you are saying LMA can do above. |
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Post by Charles Barkley on Mar 19, 2016 19:18:35 GMT
Here's what Charles thinks because everyone knows they want to hear what the Round Mound of Rebound thinks about everything.
1. I think on the basis of everything, it is a fair deal, leaning more towards Portland because he gets the best player in the deal.
2. LMA can earn a great deal more in salary by opting out and signing a new deal. That's if we just say he has the 7-9 years experience, like I think he will. If he opts out, and signs a 1 and 1, he can earn even more. Having said that, everyone looks at LMA as the guy who took less money, so everyone thinks he should take less money in here. But he took less money to go to the Spurs. And the Spurs in RL can't be replicated in here, I think it is a special scenario. Could he take less money in here? Yeah I think he could, but I don't think he could take the 7-8 million less he took in RL last season. And by not opting out, he passes up way more money than that.
3. Wall cannot earn more money by opting out and signing a new deal this off-season, his numbers are already above the max for him, and he has the max increases (I assume). The only way Wall makes more is if he opts out and signs a 1 and 1 or a 3 year with the PO in the 3rd.
4. Kyrie could sign anywhere. Honestly, in real life, I feel like he doesn't even like playing with LeBron and being number 2, so I didn't really think Kyrie should re-sign in Denver with all those guys. Who knows where Kyrie may go now.
5. If Portland re-signs Kyrie to a max, it is going to be hard for them to sign George when he opts out, it is already going to be hard considering there's no BRs on him.
I also feel like something should be said about what these guys chose to do this off-season. They chose to sign deals with Portland, because they wanted to be in Portland. They could have gotten that money anywhere, but have lost the 6th year.
If I was a player, and I signed a big deal in Cleveland, a nice long 6 year deal, and had been playing there for years before, I have my kids set up, my wife likes the city. We have a nice house for me and my NBA height. And then my GM goes and trades me? I'd be upset with that team. And in here, it isn't like the player has a say where he is traded, like Melo did in real life. I believe that should play in to what they decide to do this off-season just as much as the money. They should want to play in a city they love.
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Post by Jay Z on Mar 19, 2016 19:24:57 GMT
These are not the same scenarios. Butler had 2 choices, go for a short term deal to get payed under the new max, or sign with the current max. The risk was an injury could derail his earning power in a future deal and he took the safe route with the current max (and the Bulls through in a player option to keep him from going the riskier route). A player like LA already has the money guaranteed to him, he gets to survey the NBA landscape and go after the fattest paycheck. If he opts in he makes about $140 mill over 5 years. If I'm doing the math correctly, if he opts out, he can sign a new max deal (assuming he falls under the 7-9 and not the 10, not sure how that falls) starting at $27 mill ($90 mill x 30%), with 11% raise per year, comes out to about $170 mill over 5 years. So stay in Denver at his current contract or pick his destination and bring in $30 million more over the same span of time? If i get the numbers wrong that's one thing, but if they're spot on then there is no reason (barring an injury that hurts LA's worth in FA) for LA to opt in and give up money on his LAST major nba contract. Yeah, players that have an opportunity to look for a long term deal that nets them a shitload more money will probably opt out. But I don't think that scenario can play out here... Player options are determined BEFORE free agency, correct? So a player can't test potential offers or talk to teams before deciding their player option, as you are saying LMA can do above. That's up to the people (trade committee?) to determine when they look at the opt outs. They will have to read the situation and come to a decision for LA. To me, I saw he was worth the max last year and he will be worth the max again this year. I mean how could he not, his new teammate Josh Smith will make more than him. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2016 19:29:01 GMT
Yeah, players that have an opportunity to look for a long term deal that nets them a shitload more money will probably opt out. But I don't think that scenario can play out here... Player options are determined BEFORE free agency, correct? So a player can't test potential offers or talk to teams before deciding their player option, as you are saying LMA can do above. That's up to the people (trade committee?) to determine when they look at the opt outs. They will have to read the situation and come to a decision for LA. To me, I saw he was worth the max last year and he will be worth the max again this year. I mean how could he not, his new teammate Josh Smith will make more than him. I mean all I said is I think players should pick long term deals, as they would in real life. I never said anything about them not opting out. I just don't think Wall would opt out to sign a 1+1. if his current contract would make him more money than he would as a UFA taking a long term deal, I think he doesn't opt out. I'm sure you agree. |
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Post by Alex English on Mar 19, 2016 20:08:12 GMT
This is what Aldridge said after meeting with the Lakers as a free agent. - SourceHe cares about basketball way more than anything. The flash and hype LA could offer didn't really impress him. Then we also know that the money isn't the most important thing because he could have re-signed for $113 million. Instead he chose San Antonio for $84 million. It makes no sense for Aldridge to opt out. He cares about basketball. It's not even close that I have the best talent available to him. Plus he'll still get $140 million guaranteed. |
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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Mar 19, 2016 20:11:28 GMT
Just wanted to chime in quickly. I'd be extremely surprised if lma didn't opt out. He's bound to get a max deal from someone, hell I'll give it to him, and makes waaaaaay more money should he do so. I think wall opts in bc he gets the most money this way.
I think we over complicate things here. Players IMO care about 2 things only, how close a team is to contention and money. And they care about money way more.
Also good to post out that lma won a chip already here in d5 so I'd imagine he'd be more about the money now
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Post by Alex English on Mar 19, 2016 20:13:04 GMT
We did all this last year. We hypothesized over the idea that every player would organize their options to max out their money. We were completely wrong. Why would we go down the same road this year?
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Post by Ian Noble on Mar 19, 2016 20:13:38 GMT
This is what Aldridge said after meeting with the Lakers as a free agent. - SourceHe cares about basketball way more than anything. The flash and hype LA could offer didn't really impress him. Then we also know that the money isn't the most important thing because he could have re-signed for $113 million. Instead he chose San Antonio for $84 million. It makes no sense for Aldridge to opt out. He cares about basketball. It's not even close that I have the best talent available to him. Plus he'll still get $140 million guaranteed. This is great, we need to get this in-depth when the off season arrives. |
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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Mar 19, 2016 20:17:06 GMT
This is what Aldridge said after meeting with the Lakers as a free agent. - SourceHe cares about basketball way more than anything. The flash and hype LA could offer didn't really impress him. Then we also know that the money isn't the most important thing because he could have re-signed for $113 million. Instead he chose San Antonio for $84 million. It makes no sense for Aldridge to opt out. He cares about basketball. It's not even close that I have the best talent available to him. Plus he'll still get $140 million guaranteed. This is great, we need to get this in-depth when the off season arrives. Big difference between the irl Lakers or blazers and teams here that can offer him a contending path and money. There are at a minimum 5 teams he could join, become a title contender and make the most money possible. IRL Lma didn't have these options. I think it's a different scenario here |
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Post by Charles Barkley on Mar 19, 2016 20:27:55 GMT
This is what Aldridge said after meeting with the Lakers as a free agent. - SourceHe cares about basketball way more than anything. The flash and hype LA could offer didn't really impress him. Then we also know that the money isn't the most important thing because he could have re-signed for $113 million. Instead he chose San Antonio for $84 million. It makes no sense for Aldridge to opt out. He cares about basketball. It's not even close that I have the best talent available to him. Plus he'll still get $140 million guaranteed. Going back to what I said... LMA cares about basketball, yes. We know this. I knew that article existed. He also had said that he wanted to play in Texas because he is from Texas. And if the Spurs can fit you in, why not sign up for that? Especially if Pop says he will be there. All I am saying is that LMA has become this poster child of players taking less money to go play for winning teams. And that is not the case at all. The Spurs are a special organization. They are the best run organization in all of sports of all time. Period. Their chemistry and how everything is done there is just so different to anything else. And we cannot replicate that in here. Like I said, I can see LMA taking a few off the top to help a team out. But I can't see him passing up 7-9 million dollars a year like he would pass up if he were to opt-in. That's just my opinion. Especially when you add in the fact that Alex wasn't the team that signed him this off-season. That's just how I feel about LMA. I feel that he should opt-out. I can't see him losing that much money in his contract to play for a team that he didn't sign with in the first place. He did it in real life because it was the Spurs, and we can all agree that the RL Spurs do not exist in any shape or form in D5, and no team really can possibly come close to it. |
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Post by Alex English on Mar 19, 2016 20:28:05 GMT
Big difference between the irl Lakers or blazers and teams here that can offer him a contending path and money. There are at a minimum 5 teams he could join, become a title contender and make the most money possible. IRL Lma didn't have these options. I think it's a different scenario here And there are a minimum 5 superstar free agents he's competing with in free agency because if you believe Aldridge opts out, then you basically believe everyone opts out. So that means all these guys are on the market: LaMarcus Aldridge DeMarcus Cousins Chris Bosh Kevin Love Paul Millsap Nikola Vucevic Greg Monroe Al Horford Marc Gasol - maybe Derrick Favors - maybe When the dust settles, what are the odds Aldridge ends up in a better situation than my team? That's a huge risk for him too. We can tell from his past behaviour that he would opt in. |
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Post by Charles Barkley on Mar 19, 2016 20:30:04 GMT
Big difference between the irl Lakers or blazers and teams here that can offer him a contending path and money. There are at a minimum 5 teams he could join, become a title contender and make the most money possible. IRL Lma didn't have these options. I think it's a different scenario here And there are a minimum 5 superstar free agents he's competing with in free agency because if you believe Aldridge opts out, then you basically believe everyone opts out. So that means all these guys are on the market: LaMarcus Aldridge DeMarcus Cousins Chris Bosh Kevin Love Paul Millsap Nikola Vucevic Greg Monroe Al Horford Marc Gasol - maybe Derrick Favors - maybe When the dust settles, what are the odds Aldridge ends up in a better situation than my team? That's a huge risk for him too. We can tell from his past behaviour that he would opt in. Cousins should probably opt-in, since its all about the money for him. And I think, right now, people would rather have LMA over Bosh, Monroe, Vucevic, Favors. And I also think it is guaranteed Favors and Gasol opt-out. Both would make way way more money, and that's what the options are for. |
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Post by Charles Barkley on Mar 19, 2016 20:33:04 GMT
But, this trade isn't about who opts-in and who opts-out.
Both teams take considerable risks here. And I'd say the risk is equal for both teams.
Neither team may have each player in 4 years.
I think it is a good trade for Portland, he loves George. And I think Alex is smart in trying to get some team players around Harden.
This is very fair IMO. And both GMs know the risks involved. I see no reason why it shouldn't pass.
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Post by Alex English on Mar 19, 2016 20:44:01 GMT
Even if you want to assume money is as important as basketball for Aldridge, his best option is still to opt in next year and then opt out of the 4th year of his contract.
If you assume the cap stays at $90 million forever then Aldridge only leaves like $10-15 million on the table to stay in Denver. But the cap isn't staying there. By then the cap will be around $110-$120 million. A max contract then will actually make him more money than taking the long term option this offseason with who knows which team. That middle of the contract option can't exist anymore since we've changed the rules.
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Post by Charles Barkley on Mar 19, 2016 20:53:20 GMT
Even if you want to assume money is as important as basketball for Aldridge, his best option is still to opt in next year and then opt out of the 4th year of his contract. If you assume the cap stays at $90 million forever then Aldridge only leaves like $10-15 million on the table to stay in Denver. But the cap isn't staying there. By then the cap will be around $110-$120 million. A max contract then will actually make him more money than taking the long term option this offseason with who knows which team. That middle of the contract option can't exist anymore since we've changed the rules. I agree with this. His best bet is to opt-out after the 3rd year where he will be 10 year elgible. However, he will have 11 seasons in the league, and he will be ~33 when that free agency hits. Are teams going to want to spend almost 40 million a year on Aldridge? I don't think so. Especially when you just made the arguement about how all these good PFs are in this free agency class. What if no one has cap space and a need for him? The 2nd option in his contract allows him to get the most money, but it is also a lot riskier. If he doesn't opt-out now, he could lose a considerable amount of dough, but if he waits and tries to opt out in the 4th year, he may not get the max. I wouldn't feel comfrotable giving a 33 year old a 5 year deal. |
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Post by Alex English on Mar 19, 2016 21:00:39 GMT
What if no one has cap space and a need for him? Uh I will. I'll have his bird rights and be trying to win my fourth straight championship. |
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Post by Charles Barkley on Mar 19, 2016 21:04:00 GMT
What if no one has cap space and a need for him? Uh I will. I'll have his bird rights and be trying to win my fourth straight championship. I know that, but if no one has space, which could possibly happen considering the amount of money we are about to pass out here, then there are no competitors on the market for LMA. You know how it works. If no one can afford to pay him that 40 million dollar a year deal, then he won't get it, because you, smartly, would offer less. Personally, I don't see him being worth 40 a year at age 33. And I don't see lots of teams having 40 in cap space, you know? Like I said, I think this trade is fair, I think you're doing the smart thing, but thinking LMA is a lock to stay in his contract is being naive. |
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Post by Clyde Drexler on Mar 19, 2016 22:17:06 GMT
Holy shit!
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Mar 19, 2016 23:05:58 GMT
LaMarcus Aldridge still got a max deal. He lost a year but it wasn't like he took a less money per year. So if healthy he would be wise to take a 4 year deal for whatever his max is.
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Post by Walt Frazier on Mar 20, 2016 1:03:27 GMT
I am fine taking the risk with Wall and Aldridge opting out because the last offseason showed we completely missed the mark on the player option issue. Lebron was the only person to play the short term game to try and maximize his potential earnings. Everyone else chose long term guaranteed money. Including LaMarcus Aldridge himself who signed for 4 years and $84 million. He left a lot of money on the table compared to playing the cap game and maxing his dollars. Here in D5 he's guaranteed 5 years and close to $140 million. Who the hell opts out from that? Nobody. Certainly not LaMarcus Aldridge if he'll also choose a long term option of $84 million. His 4th year opt out might make a little more sense since the cap could be between $110-$120 million by then, even then though, it would depend a lot on what's actually going on around that time. Same thing with John Wall, opting out means giving up 5 years and almost $150 million. The way players behaved in the NBA last offseason shows that nobody would give up such a huge amount of guaranteed money. I think basically everyone with player options will opt in. The only exceptions are probably Kyle Lowry and Paul Millsap because they're being underpaid enough that they can nearly double their salary. If he were signing the contract fresh right now, yes, he should take the guaranteed long-term money over the risk. But, this offseason, he won't really be taking any risk, IMO. He'll be healthy (or he won't, which in that case, if it's a serious injury, he opts in of course) and will know he can get a max by opting out. He's not taking a risk. He's getting the same length remaining contract for more money, significantly more. |
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Post by Walt Frazier on Mar 20, 2016 1:07:29 GMT
All this opt-in / opt-out talk aside though.
I accept. The risk has been expressed and Alex has acknowledged it, though he doesn't, apparently, believe it to be true.
He's a big boy though, so I'll accept.
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Post by Alex English on Mar 20, 2016 2:36:24 GMT
If he were signing the contract fresh right now, yes, he should take the guaranteed long-term money over the risk. But, this offseason, he won't really be taking any risk, IMO. He'll be healthy (or he won't, which in that case, if it's a serious injury, he opts in of course) and will know he can get a max by opting out. He's not taking a risk. He's getting the same length remaining contract for more money, significantly more. How much of the basketball side do you think should be considered? Right now you are completely ignoring it, and based on what I've already posted in here, the basketball is more important to LaMarcus than the money. But even just considering the money, he actually maximizes his ability to earn money by opting in, then opting out out of the fourth year of his deal. By then the cap will have jumped again and will overcome whatever money he left on the table during this offseason because he gets two max contract years going into his late 30s instead of having to hit free agency again at 36 years old. Let's play out Aldridge's career assuming he gets the max whenever he hits free agency.  By opting in and hitting free agency 2 years later, he can earn $30 million dollars more. That's with the assumption LMA gets a 2 year $60 million contract as a 36 year old, which is probably generous. All these numbers are pretty ridiculous though, I'm not sure we'll actually be giving guys massive contracts like this. However, any amount taken off these numbers reduces the value of money overall anyway, so no matter how you draw it up I don't see why Aldridge would choose to opt out this year. I recognize the risk is there, I just don't think you guys are actually considering the full picture. You're just looking at the short term money while ignoring the long term options and the basketball side too. Then some of you are probably just getting wet at the idea that Aldridge could opt out and I wouldn't be able to sign him. |
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Post by Danny Longley on Mar 20, 2016 2:55:53 GMT
Switching to accept as well, Wall not being eligible for 30% changes a lot for me. And yeah, I also think Aldridge has more to gain by opting in now and then opting out on his 2nd PO than just jumping out at the first chance.
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Post by Alex English on Mar 20, 2016 3:03:57 GMT
Switching to accept as well, Wall not being eligible for 30% changes a lot for me. And yeah, I also think Aldridge has more to gain by opting in now and then opting out on his 2nd PO than just jumping out at the first chance. So I think this deal is officially accepted now. Crazy. I still want to keep Paul George somehow lol. |
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Mar 20, 2016 3:11:08 GMT
Welcome to Brooklyn, Kyrie!
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