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Post by Charles Barkley on Jun 8, 2015 10:19:30 GMT
I mean, technically, you had a 50% chance of losing each tie-breaker. It wasn't like you had a 87.5% chance of winning them all. Its like flipping a coin over and over. Sure, the more times you get heads in a row, the more likely you are to get tails. But it's still 50-50 each time. Statistics man, crazy thing. ... Lel What? We did use a coin flip for them right? Or am I just an idiot like usual? |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2015 10:21:42 GMT
What? We did use a coin flip for them right? Or am I just an idiot like usual? He had a 12.5% chance of losing all 3. That doesn't mean he had a 87.5% chance of winning all three, it meant he had an 87.5% chance of winning at least one of them. |
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Post by Charles Barkley on Jun 8, 2015 10:31:25 GMT
What? We did use a coin flip for them right? Or am I just an idiot like usual? He had a 12.5% chance of losing all 3. That doesn't mean he had a 87.5% chance of winning all three, it meant he had an 87.5% chance of winning at least one of them. Technically, he had a 50% chance of winning the first, a 50% chance of winning the second, and a 50% chance of winning the third. The odds of him losing all 3 and winning all three would be the same, I think. The 87.5% to win 1 seems right, Im not doing the math right now. But at the end of the day, none of them tied together, so it is like continually flipping a coin over and over, its always 50-50, but at the same time the odds increase towards a certain outcome, but at the same time its always 50-50, but at the same time the odds increase towards the outcome................ Statistics man, statistics. Some fucked up shit. Like, the Confucius, how can a cat both be alive and dead at the same time? If a cat is trapped under a box that has a mechanism that releases poison if the box is open and fills the room. Man, some crazy shit. There's also another one where someone asks a monk how to feel enlightenment and the monk says by hanging over a ledge on a cliff and letting go. Some really really cool things to talk about when stoned. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2015 10:33:26 GMT
He had a 12.5% chance of losing all 3. That doesn't mean he had a 87.5% chance of winning all three, it meant he had an 87.5% chance of winning at least one of them. Technically, he had a 50% chance of winning the first, a 50% chance of winning the second, and a 50% chance of winning the third. The odds of him losing all 3 and winning all three would be the same, I think. The 87.5% to win 1 seems right, Im not doing the math right now. But at the end of the day, none of them tied together, so it is like continually flipping a coin over and over, its always 50-50, but at the same time the odds increase towards a certain outcome, but at the same time its always 50-50, but at the same time the odds increase towards the outcome................ Statistics man, statistics. Some fucked up shit. Like, the Confucius, how can a cat both be alive and dead at the same time? If a cat is trapped under a box that has a mechanism that releases poison if the box is open and fills the room. Man, some crazy shit. There's also another one where someone asks a monk how to feel enlightenment and the monk says by hanging over a ledge on a cliff and letting go. Some really really cool things to talk about when stoned. You do know that if you have a 50% chance to have an outcome, and then have 3 tries, you have a 12.5% chance of getting outcome B every time over the whole set right? It's 6 am, so I'll give you some time to delete these posts and I'll delete mine and maybe no one will see these  |
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Post by Charles Barkley on Jun 8, 2015 10:37:39 GMT
Technically, he had a 50% chance of winning the first, a 50% chance of winning the second, and a 50% chance of winning the third. The odds of him losing all 3 and winning all three would be the same, I think. The 87.5% to win 1 seems right, Im not doing the math right now. But at the end of the day, none of them tied together, so it is like continually flipping a coin over and over, its always 50-50, but at the same time the odds increase towards a certain outcome, but at the same time its always 50-50, but at the same time the odds increase towards the outcome................ Statistics man, statistics. Some fucked up shit. Like, the Confucius, how can a cat both be alive and dead at the same time? If a cat is trapped under a box that has a mechanism that releases poison if the box is open and fills the room. Man, some crazy shit. There's also another one where someone asks a monk how to feel enlightenment and the monk says by hanging over a ledge on a cliff and letting go. Some really really cool things to talk about when stoned. You do know that if you have a 50% chance to have an outcome, and then have 3 tries, you have a 12.5% chance of getting outcome B every time over the whole set right? It's 6 am, so I'll give you some time to delete these posts and I'll delete mine and maybe no one will see these You do know that there is a difference between Odds (chance here) and probability right? So like, 50-50 odds, but the probability increases. I worded it wrong I guess. I like discussing this shit and feeling like an idiot and learning though, maybe others will learn about basic statistics too. I was all about the advanced stats and game theory econ in college, now im just a dude who forgot a bunch of shit that cost way too much money for a piece of paper saying I learned the shit that I've forgotten. But I can make a mean excel sheet and flip linear matrices, thats like, good for nothing in terms of lotto odds |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2015 10:49:38 GMT
You do know that if you have a 50% chance to have an outcome, and then have 3 tries, you have a 12.5% chance of getting outcome B every time over the whole set right? It's 6 am, so I'll give you some time to delete these posts and I'll delete mine and maybe no one will see these You do know that there is a difference between Odds (chance here) and probability right? So like, 50-50 odds, but the probability increases. I worded it wrong I guess. I like discussing this shit and feeling like an idiot and learning though, maybe others will learn about basic statistics too. I was all about the advanced stats and game theory econ in college, now im just a dude who forgot a bunch of shit that cost way too much money for a piece of paper saying I learned the shit that I've forgotten. But I can make a mean excel sheet and flip linear matrices, thats like, good for nothing in terms of lotto odds And I'm a washed up physicist that delivers pizzas but the likelihood of getting tail 3 times in a row is P(F)*P(F)*P(F). using a binomial distribution where p is the probability of success and q = (1-p) = probability of failure, the probability of a specific sequence of outcomes where there are r successes and n-r failures is p^r * q^(n-r). in this case p=.5, q=.5, r=0, n=3, n-r= 3 so the probability of him getting tail 3 times in a row is .5^0 * .5^3 = .125 = 12.5% |
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Post by Charles Barkley on Jun 8, 2015 11:04:23 GMT
You do know that there is a difference between Odds (chance here) and probability right? So like, 50-50 odds, but the probability increases. I worded it wrong I guess. I like discussing this shit and feeling like an idiot and learning though, maybe others will learn about basic statistics too. I was all about the advanced stats and game theory econ in college, now im just a dude who forgot a bunch of shit that cost way too much money for a piece of paper saying I learned the shit that I've forgotten. But I can make a mean excel sheet and flip linear matrices, thats like, good for nothing in terms of lotto odds And I'm a washed up physicist that delivers pizzas but the likelihood of getting tail 3 times in a row is P(F)*P(F)*P(F). using a binomial distribution where p is the probability of success and q = (1-p) = probability of failure, the probability of a specific sequence of outcomes where there are r successes and n-r failures is p^r * q^(n-r). in this case p=.5, q=.5, r=0, n=3, n-r= 3 so the probability of him getting tail 3 times in a row is .5^0 * .5^3 = .125 = 12.5% Yes yes YASSS thats what I was trying to say. I was mixing up probability with odds. His odds each time were 50-50, but the probability stacks up. Like with a deck of cards, the odds of getting any one card off the top of the deck is 1 in 56, and each time a card is pulled that isnt your card, the probability increases, as well as the odds if we just throw the card out. BUT if we put the card back in, and reshuffle the deck, the odds become 1 in 56 again, but the probability does increase each time. Coin flip is much easier of an example, but sometimes explaining it in different terms helps me, as well as others reading this seeing it. Odds and probability, statistics man, statistics. On another note, you may not be a washed up physicist who delivers pizza, you could be a dude with a good internet connection and fast hands and I can actually be Charles Barkley. On the internet, we can be anyone and anything. In 50 years in won't matter who you are or what you did, only what you were on the internet. Born too late to explore the Earth, too early to explore the stars, born just right to explore the internet and dank memes that cant melt steel fuel. |
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Post by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar on Jun 8, 2015 11:04:56 GMT
I just hope that the one that I'll pick will lead my team to atleast a playoff this coming seasons. Having the most ruined team is horrible. ^^ The team you adopted was ruined, but you got to make it your own. You didn't pick up someones controller and play the 4th quarter with a 20 point lead, you know? Also, you want to see a team in ruins? Look at what Jeremiah inherited. And then consider he had his pick between like 4 other teams. And I quote "I want to play on All-Madden". The dude who had the Grizzlies last nearly intentionally destroyed a team. Not a very good team to begin with, but destroyed it none the less. The Wiz, before T-Mac came, was a solid rebuilding team. He then believed he had enough assets to flip to make a push, spoiler alert: he didn't. Then he bailed before FA, the most crucial time in a team building process and left you with a shit sammich. But you're doing a good job Kareem!! Hang in there, you'll get better. Especially with a top 2 pick now. Thanks Charles. I just hope to pick 2nd so that there will be no problem. ^^ |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2015 11:05:42 GMT
Thanks Charles. I just hope to pick 2nd so that there will be no problem. ^^ You must've missed it... Orlando got pick #3 so you're in the top 2! |
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Post by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar on Jun 8, 2015 11:08:44 GMT
Thanks Charles. I just hope to pick 2nd so that there will be no problem. ^^ You must've missed it... Orlando got pick #3 so you're in the top 2! I think there's still a tendency that I'll pick 1st. Hahahaha ^^ |
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Post by Charles Barkley on Jun 8, 2015 11:09:18 GMT
Thanks Charles. I just hope to pick 2nd so that there will be no problem. ^^ You must've missed it... Orlando got pick #3 so you're in the top 2! Mr. Physicist, he wants pick 2 so that he doesn't have to decide between KAT and Okafor, at least that's how I interpreted it. I was like that last year, I had pick 2 and was like yes, no decision, either Parker or Wiggins, whoever James doesn't want. And then I scouted till my eyes bled and ended up with Vasijile Micic and Alessandro Gentile. |
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Post by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar on Jun 8, 2015 11:14:45 GMT
You must've missed it... Orlando got pick #3 so you're in the top 2! Mr. Physicist, he wants pick 2 so that he doesn't have to decide between KAT and Okafor, at least that's how I interpreted it. I was like that last year, I had pick 2 and was like yes, no decision, either Parker or Wiggins, whoever James doesn't want. And then I scouted till my eyes bled and ended up with Vasijile Micic and Alessandro Gentile. That's my point. It's hard to pick 1st because you'll have a hard time picking and if you pick the wrong player it's your fault for picking the wrong player. Hahahaha ^^ |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2015 11:15:55 GMT
Mr. Physicist, he wants pick 2 so that he doesn't have to decide between KAT and Okafor, at least that's how I interpreted it. I was like that last year, I had pick 2 and was like yes, no decision, either Parker or Wiggins, whoever James doesn't want. And then I scouted till my eyes bled and ended up with Vasijile Micic and Alessandro Gentile. That's my point. It's hard to pick 1st because you'll have a hard time picking and if you pick the wrong player it's your fault for picking the wrong player. Hahahaha ^^ Picking 2nd would suck this year if Okafur goes #1. I don't know what people see in KAT, but he is way shittier than Okafur. Trust me I'm really good at scouting big men. (Hassan Whiteside = GOAT) |
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Post by Charles Barkley on Jun 8, 2015 11:16:48 GMT
Mr. Physicist, he wants pick 2 so that he doesn't have to decide between KAT and Okafor, at least that's how I interpreted it. I was like that last year, I had pick 2 and was like yes, no decision, either Parker or Wiggins, whoever James doesn't want. And then I scouted till my eyes bled and ended up with Vasijile Micic and Alessandro Gentile. That's my point. It's hard to pick 1st because you'll have a hard time picking and if you pick the wrong player it's your fault for picking the wrong player. Hahahaha ^^ You'll be fine dude, no matter what pick and no matter who you pick. Just believe in your decision, even if everyone keeps saying Rose will never be the same player again. |
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Post by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar on Jun 8, 2015 11:18:40 GMT
I agree with Charles. You'll never know what's happens next. Don't forget what happen to Oden. ^^
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2015 11:18:36 GMT
That's my point. It's hard to pick 1st because you'll have a hard time picking and if you pick the wrong player it's your fault for picking the wrong player. Hahahaha ^^ You'll be fine dude, no matter what pick and no matter who you pick. Just believe in your decision, even if everyone keeps saying Rose will never be the same player again.  I feel so bad for you with rose. I know the pain I really do. I watched my team suffer year after year from the Eric Gordon max contract knee problem fiasco. Derrick Rose is now a glorified Eric Gordon. |
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Post by Charles Barkley on Jun 8, 2015 11:20:37 GMT
That's my point. It's hard to pick 1st because you'll have a hard time picking and if you pick the wrong player it's your fault for picking the wrong player. Hahahaha ^^ Picking 2nd would suck this year if Okafur goes #1. I don't know what people see in KAT, but he is way shittier than Okafur. Trust me I'm really good at scouting big men. (Hassan Whiteside = GOAT) Ehh, from my viewpoint, I see what people see in KAT, a higher floor is all. And if you wanted my advice, I could pretty much talk you into picking anyone from KAT and Okafor to Johnson and Winslow to Russell and Mudiay to WCS, Propingas, and Hezonovia (sp?) Like I said before, I have 15 or so guys in tier 1, my all-star talent tier. Sure there are some sub-tiers but I think a lot of these guys project really well in to the league 3-5 years down the road. Like this draft Top15 better than last years, but last years was 35 deep to role players, this years falls off, imo. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2015 11:23:25 GMT
Picking 2nd would suck this year if Okafur goes #1. I don't know what people see in KAT, but he is way shittier than Okafur. Trust me I'm really good at scouting big men. (Hassan Whiteside = GOAT) Ehh, from my viewpoint, I see what people see in KAT, a higher floor is all. And if you wanted my advice, I could pretty much talk you into picking anyone from KAT and Okafor to Johnson and Winslow to Russell and Mudiay to WCS, Propingas, and Hezonovia (sp?) Like I said before, I have 15 or so guys in tier 1, my all-star talent tier. Sure there are some sub-tiers but I think a lot of these guys project really well in to the league 3-5 years down the road. Like this draft Top15 better than last years, but last years was 35 deep to role players, this years falls off, imo. I wish Trimble had come out this year. I hope I can get him next year. |
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Post by Charles Barkley on Jun 8, 2015 11:24:38 GMT
You'll be fine dude, no matter what pick and no matter who you pick. Just believe in your decision, even if everyone keeps saying Rose will never be the same player again. I feel so bad for you with rose. I know the pain I really do. I watched my team suffer year after year from the Eric Gordon max contract knee problem fiasco. Derrick Rose is now a glorified Eric Gordon. Nah, Gordon has one elite talent, shooting it from deep. Problem is, lots of dudes in the NBA can do that for much much less than Gordon. And we've seen guys come back from a knee injury and perform really well (Bledsoe). I can't really say Rose showed any elite talent this past year, but I believe in him. Like I said earlier, like him most as a person, believe he can come back to former proto-type PG, and if not former proto-type PG, then a CP3 type dude but quicker. Who knows, just really interesting for me to watch and I understand the sunk cost in my head, but sometimes you gotta call the girl and hold out hoping for hope. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2015 11:26:23 GMT
I feel so bad for you with rose. I know the pain I really do. I watched my team suffer year after year from the Eric Gordon max contract knee problem fiasco. Derrick Rose is now a glorified Eric Gordon. Nah, Gordon has one elite talent, shooting it from deep. Problem is, lots of dudes in the NBA can do that for much much less than Gordon. And we've seen guys come back from a knee injury and perform really well (Bledsoe). I can't really say Rose showed any elite talent this past year, but I believe in him. Like I said earlier, like him most as a person, believe he can come back to former proto-type PG, and if not former proto-type PG, then a CP3 type dude but quicker. Who knows, just really interesting for me to watch and I understand the sunk cost in my head, but sometimes you gotta call the girl and hold out h oping for hope.Do you remember what Eric Gordon looked like his last year in LA? He was elite in a shitload of categories and very very good at defense. Disclaimer: I am not saying EG was as good as Derrick Rose, but their problems are similar and their new skillset is now similar. Enjoy a 3 point jacking Rose, and watch Jimmy Butler do all the cool shit. |
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Post by Charles Barkley on Jun 8, 2015 11:43:28 GMT
Nah, Gordon has one elite talent, shooting it from deep. Problem is, lots of dudes in the NBA can do that for much much less than Gordon. And we've seen guys come back from a knee injury and perform really well (Bledsoe). I can't really say Rose showed any elite talent this past year, but I believe in him. Like I said earlier, like him most as a person, believe he can come back to former proto-type PG, and if not former proto-type PG, then a CP3 type dude but quicker. Who knows, just really interesting for me to watch and I understand the sunk cost in my head, but sometimes you gotta call the girl and hold out h oping for hope.Do you remember what Eric Gordon looked like his last year in LA? He was elite in a shitload of categories and very very good at defense. Disclaimer: I am not saying EG was as good as Derrick Rose, but their problems are similar and their new skillset is now similar. Enjoy a 3 point jacking Rose, and watch Jimmy Butler do all the cool shit. Yes I remember what EG was like, more developments this off-season, stay tuned. To not make this into a Rose thread, I'll end this and get back to more important matters after this post, basic stats not being one of them. I don't think Rose will just be walkin 3's. I also don't think Jimmy Buckets will be as good in Hoidberg's system. Probably a better per 48 though. I think this year was Rose realizing he can still do things. I think we saw it in the playoffs, him getting to the rim more, but he did have that one bad game where he didnt go to the rim as much and subsequently, to the line. So, I think Rose has his feet under him again. His teammates love him. They trust him. I think his turnovers will be way down, but they could be where they were last year due to needing to understand Zoidberg. I think he will have his games where we think he is back, and I think we will have his games where we say he won't be the same again, and I think we will have his games where he does new things. I think the biggest thing about becoming a superstar in this league is consistency. Steph took a big step, he probably has 25+ point games near 75% of the time. I think Rose will be inconsistent again this season, but not as bad as last season. He will be 27 this season. And I think when he is 28, the 2016-2017 season is when we see him back to All-Star caliber, 2nd team All-Pro level. He may not get those accolades because of other Eastern Conference PGs, and just the greatness of PGs right now in general (or their lack of defense), but I think we will see right then and there if he is truly done, or back to form. That's the timeline for him in my head. The 2016-2017 season. EG's LAC great season was what? 3rd year in the league? Had solid rookie and sophomore campaigns, then got hurt. This was his 3rd season since injury. This season was Rose's 1st back from missing 95% of the games in 2 seasons. So give him 2 more years, like we have with EG. And I still think EG can come back to his LAC self. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2015 11:44:57 GMT
Do you remember what Eric Gordon looked like his last year in LA? He was elite in a shitload of categories and very very good at defense. Disclaimer: I am not saying EG was as good as Derrick Rose, but their problems are similar and their new skillset is now similar. Enjoy a 3 point jacking Rose, and watch Jimmy Butler do all the cool shit. Yes I remember what EG was like, more developments this off-season, stay tuned. To not make this into a Rose thread, I'll end this and get back to more important matters after this post, basic stats not being one of them. I don't think Rose will just be walkin 3's. I also don't think Jimmy Buckets will be as good in Hoidberg's system. Probably a better per 48 though. I think this year was Rose realizing he can still do things. I think we saw it in the playoffs, him getting to the rim more, but he did have that one bad game where he didnt go to the rim as much and subsequently, to the line. So, I think Rose has his feet under him again. His teammates love him. They trust him. I think his turnovers will be way down, but they could be where they were last year due to needing to understand Zoidberg. I think he will have his games where we think he is back, and I think we will have his games where we say he won't be the same again, and I think we will have his games where he does new things. I think the biggest thing about becoming a superstar in this league is consistency. Steph took a big step, he probably has 25+ point games near 75% of the time. I think Rose will be inconsistent again this season, but not as bad as last season. He will be 27 this season. And I think when he is 28, the 2016-2017 season is when we see him back to All-Star caliber, 2nd team All-Pro level. He may not get those accolades because of other Eastern Conference PGs, and just the greatness of PGs right now in general (or their lack of defense), but I think we will see right then and there if he is truly done, or back to form. That's the timeline for him in my head. The 2016-2017 season. EG's LAC great season was what? 3rd year in the league? Had solid rookie and sophomore campaigns, then got hurt. This was his 3rd season since injury. This season was Rose's 1st back from missing 95% of the games in 2 seasons. So give him 2 more years, like we have with EG. And I still think EG can come back to his LAC self. EG has blown out his knees like 3 times |
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Post by Walt Frazier on Jun 8, 2015 12:40:12 GMT
Welp, I'm fairly happy. Also, all of my picks (3, 10, 19) are OTB for various reasons. Might want to package 10 and 19 to move up a bit, or put one of those with #3 to get up higher, # 1 or 2 in this draft! Or, maybe I use a combination of all 3 to get some vet pieces? Hit me up if you're interested, but especially #3 is not going to be cheap, and I like this draft in general, just so you know where I'm coming from.
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Post by Hanamichi Sakuragi on Jun 8, 2015 23:58:00 GMT
Who else feels that this draft deserves the hype of 2014 class than the 2014 themself?
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Jun 9, 2015 1:48:52 GMT
Who else feels that this draft deserves the hype of 2014 class than the 2014 themself? I told everyone and I'll reiterate it here for those who weren't here for it last season. It was the main basis for my displeasure with the original rookie ratings. It is very rare for a rookie to come into the NBA and make any sort of meaningful contribution to a team. Even top picks will sometimes take a few years to emerge/find their role. For every Kyrie Irving there are several Kevin Durants/Russell Westbrooks who take a few years to actually do anything good. And many more Ramon Sessions, Corey Brewer types and then again even more players who never do anything ever. |
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Post by Walt Frazier on Jun 9, 2015 1:52:19 GMT
Who else feels that this draft deserves the hype of 2014 class than the 2014 themself? I told everyone and I'll reiterate it here for those who weren't here for it last season. It was the main basis for my displeasure with the original rookie ratings. It is very rare for a rookie to come into the NBA and make any sort of meaningful contribution to a team. Even top picks will sometimes take a few years to emerge/find their role. For every Kyrie Irving there are several Kevin Durants/Russell Westbrooks who take a few years to actually do anything good. And many more Ramon Sessions, Corey Brewer types and then again even more players who never do anything ever. Um, are you that young you don't remember Jeremiah? 20 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.0 steals and .9 blocks. Durant wasn't immediately a top 2 player but to say he wasn't doing good things in his rookie year is a bit asinine. Westbrook's 15/5/5 line with over a steal a game is nothing to sneeze at either, plus he made 4.3 FT a game at a 81.5% clip from the line. Come on son! |
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Jun 9, 2015 2:04:40 GMT
I told everyone and I'll reiterate it here for those who weren't here for it last season. It was the main basis for my displeasure with the original rookie ratings. It is very rare for a rookie to come into the NBA and make any sort of meaningful contribution to a team. Even top picks will sometimes take a few years to emerge/find their role. For every Kyrie Irving there are several Kevin Durants/Russell Westbrooks who take a few years to actually do anything good. And many more Ramon Sessions, Corey Brewer types and then again even more players who never do anything ever. Um, are you that young you don't remember Jeremiah? 20 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.0 steals and .9 blocks. Durant wasn't immediately a top 2 player but to say he wasn't doing good things in his rookie year is a bit asinine. Westbrook's 15/5/5 line with over a steal a game is nothing to sneeze at either, plus he made 4.3 FT a game at a 81.5% clip from the line. Come on son! ---------------------------- And just like Wiggins this year it meant fuckall to overall team success. |
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Jun 9, 2015 2:06:13 GMT
Players will put up stats when given the opportunity and playing time even bad ones. IE MCW (not that he's bad just an example of playing time and opportunity and stats not meaning anything when looked at overall.
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Post by Walt Frazier on Jun 9, 2015 3:04:20 GMT
I mean, I really don't care what it "means" but you said they didn't do anything for a couple years. Stats are stats. Some players do NOT put up stats when given an opportunity. Or they don't even earn that opportunity during practices or college or the draft process, etc etc etc. Just b/c the team around them might not be good enough to make the playoffs doesn't mean their stats mean nothing. That's just silly IMO.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Jun 9, 2015 3:53:37 GMT
I understand that.
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I feel so bad for you with rose. I know the pain I really do. I watched my team suffer year after year from the Eric Gordon max contract knee problem fiasco. 
Minnesota Timberwolves
Cleveland Cavaliers
