Mike Conley

[James Kay]

I'm making a new thread for Mike Conley because the old rating change thread is several years old and I want to consolidate everyone's new ratings for him.

In the most recent season, Mike Conley posted these stats :

2013-2014

MP	FG%	3P%	FT%	RBD	AST	STL	BLK	TO	PTS
33.5	.450	.361	.815	2.9	6.0	1.5	.2	2.1	17.2

Basically he put up 17.2pts with 6 assists and 1.5 steals while shooting at a respectable clip.

Mike Conley brought a team that was missing Gasol for 21 games(reigning DPOY, uncontroversially the 1st/2nd passing big in the game, and 2nd/3rd scoring option for the team) to the playoffs in the West. It could be argued that without Gasol's injury and his own injury, Conley's stats would be even better - but we can't go off of what could've happened.

However, we DO KNOW that his stats are somewhat deflated due to the Grizzlies slow pace - the slowest in the NBA - and his relatively low minutes. Also, Conley's somewhat low assist numbers are due to the fact that he spends a lot of time off-the ball, and that the Grizzlies offense often goes through Zbo or Gasol in the post. Conley is THIRD in secondary assists per game.

As far as advanced statistics, he is #15 in Real Plus-Minus, #8 in Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus, and had a PER of 20.07 this season, good for 28th in the NBA and 7th among PGs.

PER is an almost exclusively offensive statistic, and Conley is already known for his elite defensive ability.

For those of you unfamiliar with RPM and RAPM, here is an article on ESPN that talks about them a little bit or you can research it more on your own:
regressing.deadspin.com/just-what-the-hell-is-real-plus-minus-espns-new-nba-s-1560361469

Also, random bit of NBA Insider's perspective: Don't remember when they said it and I can't find the clip online, but they (Chuck and Kenny) were talking about how Mike Conley is the BEST at controlling the pace of the game. (Not a real argument or statistic, but I thought it was worth mentioning.)

Finally, I wanna look at some of the guards who we have rated over Mike Conley at the moment:

Tyreke Evans(83), Demar Derozan (84), Brandon Jennings (83), Joe Johnson(86), Rudy Gay(85), Goran Dragic(84), Jrue Holiday(83) and we have JR Smith at the SAME RATING as Mike Conley(82).

Now out of these players, the only one I could make a feasible argument for being rated similarly to Conley is Dragic. I think it is absolutely criminal that we have BJ over Conley, though. But I think that looking at where we rate some of these players, we should definitely put Conley way higher.

Current Rating = 82
Suggested Rating = 86


Please, read the argument that I've put forward. Conley is an ELITE point guard - he destroyed the Westbrook-less Thunder last year, and played very well against them this year in the playoffs until he rolled his ankle.

[Andrei Kirilenko]

Sometimes I just look at rating changes and shake my head at how out of control they've gotten.

The problem is, IMO, not that Conley is underrated at an 82, but that we're overrating everyone else. It's like economic inflation, but with player ratings. There's a definite upward trend in ratings in compared to what they used to be. Back in the old D5, an 80+ player was a really solid piece. 85+ was a certified baller and was pretty rare. Now Rudy Gay is a damn 85. We've let this get out of control, pretty soon we're gonna have to move into the 90s for these fringe all-stars.

So yea, fuck it, 86.

[Glenn Robinson]

Disagree with your analysis of Holiday. He's a 23 year old all-star coming off an injury riddled season. Give him a full healthy season and he is on par or perhaps a bit above Conley.

[Glenn Robinson]

May 9, 2014 22:21:43 GMT Andrei Kirilenko said:

Sometimes I just look at rating changes and shake my head at how out of control they've gotten.

The problem is, IMO, not that Conley is underrated at an 82, but that we're overrating everyone else. It's like economic inflation, but with player ratings. There's a definite upward trend in ratings in compared to what they used to be. Back in the old D5, an 80+ player was a really solid piece. 85+ was a certified baller and was pretty rare. Now Rudy Gay is a damn 85. We've let this get out of control, pretty soon we're gonna have to move into the 90s for these fringe all-stars.

So yea, fuck it, 86.

I agree. I think we are overvaluing everybody else and the inflation is getting silly. That, and some players should be rated much lower, but it takes a bit longer to get a decrease going because you need a good body of work to take from to see if they really are worth a decrease, or if they just had a down or injured year.

[Alex English]

I agree with Josh's point, but Conley just isn't an 86. I'll say 83-84.

[James Kay]

May 9, 2014 22:40:49 GMT Glenn Robinson said:

Disagree with your analysis of Holiday. He's a 23 year old all-star coming off an injury riddled season. Give him a full healthy season and he is on par or perhaps a bit above Conley.

I'm a fan of holiday I think he's fantastic defensively but I think that all star selection was questionable. There's no way Id rate him above Conley although he may be rated correctly at 83.

[James Kay]

And in response to all of you, I agree with the trend that overvaluation is occurring.

BUT.

I think this is the worst time to bring that up. I've defended my rating with traditional statistics, advanced metrics, and other reasoning.

[James Kay]

Id really like some sort of background to your ratings when I've clearly defended my rating with so many points and you all throw out arbitrary numbers. Advanced metrics are not to be discarded or ignored, and Conley is ranked VERY highly in PER, RPM, and RAPM.

[Alex English]

Conley is just a good solid point guard. He's reliable and he will lead your team and that's great, but he is not an All-Star and I'm not sure he is even a near All-Star. He is not very explosive and never really 'goes off'. He has just three 30+ point games in his career, two this year, and he only had 5 games with double digit assists. He plays within himself, doesn't give up many turnovers, and is just a great point guard to have to be the 3rd or 4th best player on a really good team. Which again, is great, but he is not the type of guy to carry a team.

You brought up PER, so lets look at the top PERs for point guards this year.

25.9 - Chris Paul
24.7 - Russell Westbrook
24.1 - Stephen Curry
21.4 - Goran Dragic
20.5 - Isaiah Thomas
20.1 - Kyle Lowry
20.1 - Kyrie Irving
20.0 - Mike Conley
19.6 - Eric Bledsoe
19.5 - John Wall
19.0 - Ty Lawson
18.9 - Tony Parker

He is clearly not among the very best point guards but is in good company with the rest of the 'good but not great' guys around the 20 PER area. But this is just one season. Conley's career PER is relatively low at just 16.2. Of the guys in that area the highest rated is Tony Parker at 86, who is aging and was a little worse this year than his career level of play. Is Conley really better than all those guys around that level? Clearly not imo.

I'm not going to say too much about plus-minus stats as we've already had a big argument about this and you know I don't like them as they are way too team dependent. I guarantee you there will be an incredibly strong correlation between a player's plus minus stat and his team's win percentage. No matter how adjusted it is or however many variables any particular stat tries to account for. Just look at the Real Plus Minus stat you brought up:

espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM

Nick Colison is ranked 7th in the NBA. Yea he is a great role player, but that is clearly the product of what team he plays for. If his teammates weren't Durant and Westbrook he would be immeasurably lower on that list.

I think Conley is good, which is why I gave him an 83-84 rating, but an 86 just represents a level that Conley isn't at.

[James Kay]

May 10, 2014 0:37:52 GMT Alex English said:

Conley is just a good solid point guard. He's reliable and he will lead your team and that's great, but he is not an All-Star and I'm not sure he is even a near All-Star. He is not very explosive and never really 'goes off'. He has just three 30+ point games in his career, two this year, and he only had 5 games with double digit assists. He plays within himself, doesn't give up many turnovers, and is just a great point guard to have to be the 3rd or 4th best player on a really good team. Which again, is great, but he is not the type of guy to carry a team.

You brought up PER, so lets look at the top PERs for point guards this year.

25.9 - Chris Paul
24.7 - Russell Westbrook
24.1 - Stephen Curry
21.4 - Goran Dragic
20.5 - Isaiah Thomas
20.1 - Kyle Lowry
20.1 - Kyrie Irving
20.0 - Mike Conley
19.6 - Eric Bledsoe
19.5 - John Wall
19.0 - Ty Lawson
18.9 - Tony Parker

He is clearly not among the very best point guards but is in good company with the rest of the 'good but not great' guys around the 20 PER area. But this is just one season. Conley's career PER is relatively low at just 16.2. Of the guys in that area the highest rated is Tony Parker at 86, who is aging and was a little worse this year than his career level of play. Is Conley really better than all those guys around that level? Clearly not imo.

I'm not going to say too much about plus-minus stats as we've already had a big argument about this and you know I don't like them as they are way too team dependent. I guarantee you there will be an incredibly strong correlation between a player's plus minus stat and his team's win percentage. No matter how adjusted it is or however many variables any particular stat tries to account for. Just look at the Real Plus Minus stat you brought up:

espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM

Nick Colison is ranked 7th in the NBA. Yea he is a great role player, but that is clearly the product of what team he plays for. If his teammates weren't Durant and Westbrook he would be immeasurably lower on that list.

I think Conley is good, which is why I gave him an 83-84 rating, but an 86 just represents a level that Conley isn't at.

First off, Alex, thank you for your response. This is type of response I think is needed for players like Mike Conley - those who are not superstars but who's place in the NBA is somewhat blurred. Your response was actually defended by stats and reasoned arguments.

That being said, I have a few responses to your post.

1. You said he is not an All-Star. I'd argue that in the East, he'd be an All-Star or at the least and All-Star snub.

2.You said he is not explosive. This is very true. Yes, he doesn't have many 30+ point games or double digit assists games. Firstly, Conley is a consistent player. He doesn't have many outrageously great games, or horrendously bad ones. I don't think he should be punished for that. The fact that he has his averages without those great games should actually speak to his consistency. Secondly, as I said in my original post, Conley's stats are significantly affected by his minutes played and the Grizzlies SLOWEST pace in the NBA. Out of all those PGs that you listed for PER, Conley plays the least minutes and at the slowest pace.

3. You bring up Conley's career PER. While it is admittedly low, that is because Conley came into the league unreformed and with a poor jumpshot. When you look at his statistics, it is clear that he has improved every year. This year is not an anomaly outside of his career-range, it is merely the progress of hard work. This is not an ephemeral up-year. This is just Conley improving his game year by year.

4. You make a VERY good point regarding Nick Collison being so highly rated on RPM - obviously we should not use RPM as the one and only measure of talent. However - for a leader of a team, I don't think that Conley is one of the players who was mistakenly put there. Nick Collison was placed so highly because he is a very effective bench player. Players like Lebron, Durant, Dirk, Love, Duncan, Curry, Iggy, Westbrook, Aldridge. They are all ranked above Conley in RPM. I think that while we should take RPM with a grain of salt because it has the potential to prop up effective bench players like Collison, Frye, Birdman - Conley is NOT one of those players and his RPM rating should not being ignored.

Like I said, I thank you so much for responding with a real post, and I think that this type of discourse is great for player ratings to be accurate as possible. That being said, I'm obviously biased, but the reason I traded for Conley was because I regarded him this highly because I had been seen him play this well all season and - in in upward linear trend for the entirety of his career.

[Walt Frazier]

I'll go 84. Fully read everything posted here, don't have time to go into my reasonings right now...this is just where I think Conley should be.

[Glenn Robinson]

May 9, 2014 23:28:06 GMT James Kay said:

May 9, 2014 22:40:49 GMT Glenn Robinson said:

Disagree with your analysis of Holiday. He's a 23 year old all-star coming off an injury riddled season. Give him a full healthy season and he is on par or perhaps a bit above Conley.

I'm a fan of holiday I think he's fantastic defensively but I think that all star selection was questionable. There's no way Id rate him above Conley although he may be rated correctly at 83.

Conley this year: 73 games, 17.2ppg, 1.6spg, 6.0apg, 2.9rpg, 81FT%, 36% from 3, 45FG%

Holiday last year: 78 games, 17.7ppg, 1.6spg, 8.0apg, 4.2rpg, 75FT%, 36% from 3, 43FG%


I'd say they are pretty comparable when it comes to matching up their best seasons to date. I'd say 83 for Conley seems fair.

[Brian Scalabrine]

I agree basically with Glen and alex. Gonna go 83

[Shaquille O'Neal]

84 cuz of that defense

[Clyde Drexler]

I haven't really posted any ratings in a while since the number of threads for players fluctuated at a stupid rate, but thought I'd chime in again.

Basically, in my opinion, Conley is behind these guys when it comes to point guards:

Chiris Paul - 94
Stehpen Curry - 87 (Pending 89)
John Wall - 84 (Should be higher, yes I'm biased )
Russel Westbrook - 90
Tony Parker - 86
Damien Lillard - 82
Kyle Lowry - 78 (Pending 82)
Kyrie Irving - 85
Goran Dragic - 84

* No particular order - also may be missing some guys.
* Not counting in Rose

So looking at this list, even though Conley is a solid guy, just couldn't be rated at a 86. Unless everyone is going to get some juicy boosts.

I would give him an 83 though, that Grizzly team always seems to surprise people.

[Jeremiah Hill]

Kyrie Irving - 85 should probably be an 80.

[Charles Barkley]

I agree with Josh's point about rating inflation and an upward trend of all these guys becoming inflated or are already inflated.

I think Conley does a lot that isn't reflected in the stat sheet, like James said. He is the epitome of a floor general.

I'd say Conley is an 85. He isn't a fringe all-star in my opinion. When you look at the PG's in the league, they can be broken down into categories reflecting how they play. In the distributor category and floor general, I'd say he's the 3rd best PG in the league behind Paul and Parker.

[Brian Scalabrine]

May 13, 2014 9:58:06 GMT Charles Barkley said:

I agree with Josh's point about rating inflation and an upward trend of all these guys becoming inflated or are already inflated.

I think Conley does a lot that isn't reflected in the stat sheet, like James said. He is the epitome of a floor general.

I'd say Conley is an 85. He isn't a fringe all-star in my opinion. When you look at the PG's in the league, they can be broken down into categories reflecting how they play. In the distributor category and floor general, I'd say he's the 3rd best PG in the league behind Paul and Parker.

Above curry? And wall? And westbrook? And Lillard? I can see maybe above wall and Lillard, although I wouldn't agree, but he can't be above curry and westbrook. Even if he's a better defender they are so much superior offensively

[Brian Scalabrine]

And I'm a big conley guy great of but not top 3

[Charles Barkley]

May 13, 2014 11:06:53 GMT Brian Scalabrine said:

And I'm a big conley guy great of but not top 3

I don't put Conley in the same category of PG's as Lillard, Westbrook, Wall, and them.

It's unfair to compare those guys to Paul, Parker, Conley, Rubio. Yeah they may all play the point, but different guys do completely different things, either because their team asks them to, or because they are different types of players.

Like I said, IMO there are 3 categories of point guards around the league. You have the scoring guards, the distributors, and then a combo of both. I'd say Westbrook and Rose are the best scoring PG's. Paul, Parker, and Conley are the best distributing PG's. And Lillard and Wall do both well but not great. 

Guys like Brandon Jennings, Monta Ellis, Brandon Knight, Westbrook, that model of PG gets the label combo guard. Then guys like Kyrie, Lillard, Wall score well and distribute well but don't control the game like Paul, Parker, and Conley do.

You have the guys who are floor generals and control the tempo, and then you have the guys that are constantly on the attack and only really get assists as a by product of being the primary ball handler for their teams.

Yeah Westbrook gets double digit assists every now and again, but does he really set up other guys for their own shot? Or does he just create his own shot and dish it when someone is more open than he is.

[Charles Barkley]

IMO its like comparing a stretch 4 in Ryan Anderson with a low post banger like Z-Bo. Or comparing a high post center like Marc Gasol to defensive oriented centers like Dalembert and Perkins.

Players may categorically play the same position, but they don't all do the same things. And we can't compare them like they do. Is Conley an overall top 3 PG in my book? No. But is he a top 3 floor general IMO? Yeah, which is why I rated him one point less than Parker.

[Charles Barkley]

May 13, 2014 11:06:22 GMT Brian Scalabrine said:

May 13, 2014 9:58:06 GMT Charles Barkley said:

I agree with Josh's point about rating inflation and an upward trend of all these guys becoming inflated or are already inflated.

I think Conley does a lot that isn't reflected in the stat sheet, like James said. He is the epitome of a floor general.

I'd say Conley is an 85. He isn't a fringe all-star in my opinion. When you look at the PG's in the league, they can be broken down into categories reflecting how they play. In the distributor category and floor general, I'd say he's the 3rd best PG in the league behind Paul and Parker.

Above curry? And wall? And westbrook? And Lillard? I can see maybe above wall and Lillard, although I wouldn't agree, but he can't be above curry and westbrook. Even if he's a better defender they are so much superior offensively

I just re-read what I said. I understand how you took it the way you took it. But I didn't mean it that way. I meant that in the "floor-general" or "distributor" category, Conley is third. 

[Brian Scalabrine]

Ok I see what you're saying but even in that case shouldn't curry be above him in that category? He gets more assists and points and us more efficient and runs the offense in golden state through him while in Memphis its through zbo and gasol.

I like conley but he is a full tier below guys like curry, Paul westbrook Parker in my opinion. Even in the second tier I would put him behind wall probably very close to lillard and dragic. I'm not including drose or rondo so I'd put conley as the 6th, 7th or 8th best overall. Above guys like Lowry, Kyrie, kemba ect..

[Deleted]

In addition to what other people said, particularly Alex about the PER stat, I think Conley derives a lot of his offense because of Randolph and Gasol. Besides, Conley does NOT wow via the eye test. I think an 83 would be perfect but I am going to give him an 84 because WE NEED TO RAISE DAMIAN LILLARD DAMN IT!

[James Kay]

May 13, 2014 13:41:37 GMT Brian Scalabrine said:

Ok I see what you're saying but even in that case shouldn't curry be above him in that category? He gets more assists and points and us more efficient and runs the offense in golden state through him while in Memphis its through zbo and gasol.

I like conley but he is a full tier below guys like curry, Paul westbrook Parker in my opinion. Even in the second tier I would put him behind wall probably very close to lillard and dragic. I'm not including drose or rondo so I'd put conley as the 6th, 7th or 8th best overall. Above guys like Lowry, Kyrie, kemba ect..

This is exactly where I see Conley. But those 4 are rated 89, 94, 90, and 86. I actually don't see Parker up there. He benefits tremendously from the perfect system he plays on. I'd rather put Rondo. After that I see it going Parker, and then a three way of Conley, Lillard, and Dragic,then Wall not far behind at all.

I agree with the PG ratings for the most part, but this is how I see how the ratings should be:

Paul: 94
Westbrook: 90
Curry:89
Rondo:87
Parker: 86
Dragic: 84 (Belongs 84-85)
Lillard:82 (Belongs 84-85)
Conley: 82 (Belongs 84-85)
Wall: 84
Lowry/Kyrie/Jrue/Deron(81-83)
Kemba/Teague (79-81)

[James Kay]

May 13, 2014 15:05:07 GMT Vlade Divac said:

In addition to what other people said, particularly Alex about the PER stat, I think Conley derives a lot of his offense because of Randolph and Gasol. Besides, Conley does NOT wow via the eye test. I think an 83 would be perfect but I am going to give him an 84 because WE NEED TO RAISE DAMIAN LILLARD DAMN IT!

As I said in my original post, Conley is actually THIRD in secondary assists, behind Paul and Rubio. If anything, his offense is taken away by Randolph and Gasol because Grizzlies offensive possessions often begin with post-ups by the two of them.

And yes, we need to raise Lillard.

[Deleted]

May 13, 2014 16:46:21 GMT James Kay said:

May 13, 2014 13:41:37 GMT Brian Scalabrine said:

Ok I see what you're saying but even in that case shouldn't curry be above him in that category? He gets more assists and points and us more efficient and runs the offense in golden state through him while in Memphis its through zbo and gasol.

I like conley but he is a full tier below guys like curry, Paul westbrook Parker in my opinion. Even in the second tier I would put him behind wall probably very close to lillard and dragic. I'm not including drose or rondo so I'd put conley as the 6th, 7th or 8th best overall. Above guys like Lowry, Kyrie, kemba ect..

This is exactly where I see Conley. But those 4 are rated 89, 94, 90, and 86. I actually don't see Parker up there. He benefits tremendously from the perfect system he plays on. I'd rather put Rondo. After that I see it going Parker, and then a three way of Conley, Lillard, and Dragic,then Wall not far behind at all.

I agree with the PG ratings for the most part, but this is how I see how the ratings should be:

Paul: 94
Westbrook: 90
Curry:89
Rondo:87
Parker: 86
Dragic: 84 (Belongs 84-85)
Lillard:82 (Belongs 84-85)
Conley: 82 (Belongs 84-85)
Wall: 84
Lowry/Kyrie/Jrue/Deron(81-83)
Kemba/Teague (79-81)

I agree with most of what you said, but I would take some points away from Paul and give them to Parker and maybe Curry.

[Deleted]

May 13, 2014 16:48:35 GMT James Kay said:

May 13, 2014 15:05:07 GMT Vlade Divac said:

In addition to what other people said, particularly Alex about the PER stat, I think Conley derives a lot of his offense because of Randolph and Gasol. Besides, Conley does NOT wow via the eye test. I think an 83 would be perfect but I am going to give him an 84 because WE NEED TO RAISE DAMIAN LILLARD DAMN IT!

As I said in my original post, Conley is actually THIRD in secondary assists, behind Paul and Rubio. If anything, his offense is taken away by Randolph and Gasol because Grizzlies offensive possessions often begin with post-ups by the two of them.

And yes, we need to raise Lillard.

How do you keep secondary assists? The post-ups help him score and assist because he can attack the basket easier due to the attention paid to the bigs. It also helps him be on a good team. A guy like Conley would need to be the man on a team before I am ready to agree with you.

[James Kay]

May 13, 2014 17:46:08 GMT Vlade Divac said:

May 13, 2014 16:48:35 GMT James Kay said:

As I said in my original post, Conley is actually THIRD in secondary assists, behind Paul and Rubio. If anything, his offense is taken away by Randolph and Gasol because Grizzlies offensive possessions often begin with post-ups by the two of them.

And yes, we need to raise Lillard.

How do you keep secondary assists? The post-ups help him score and assist because he can attack the basket easier due to the attention paid to the bigs. It also helps him be on a good team. A guy like Conley would need to be the man on a team before I am ready to agree with you.

You can say that about any team though, obviously other players help out their teammates.

How do I keep secondary assists? Like where do I find this stat?

stats.nba.com/playerTrackingPassing.html

[Deleted]

May 13, 2014 17:51:22 GMT James Kay said:

May 13, 2014 17:46:08 GMT Vlade Divac said:

How do you keep secondary assists? The post-ups help him score and assist because he can attack the basket easier due to the attention paid to the bigs. It also helps him be on a good team. A guy like Conley would need to be the man on a team before I am ready to agree with you.

You can say that about any team though, obviously other players help out their teammates.

How do I keep secondary assists? Like where do I find this stat?

stats.nba.com/playerTrackingPassing.html

The Grizzles depend on Randolph for offense and if he struggles, which happens against certain players, they are reliant on their defense.

Yeah the I have never heard of anything like that...it would seem hard to keep to me but I will look into it more. Thanks!