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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Jan 17, 2019 18:08:37 GMT
Current rating: 82
Suggested rating: 78
Not sure if he's in a sophomore slump or if we just jumped the gun last year, but he's not been playing well at all.
12.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.6 bpg.
44% FG
30% 3p
The Celtics have a net negative 6 overall rating when he is on the floor (compared to +12 for Kyrie, +3 for Tatum, +10 for Marcus Morris). His ORtg (101 points per 100 possessions) is the lowest of all 15 Celtics players. Basketball Reference is actually showing that he is negative for offensive win shares, which I didn't even realize was possible. Basically, Brown has been an advanced-stats nightmare.
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Post by Mark Price on Jan 17, 2019 18:12:08 GMT
78
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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Jan 17, 2019 18:14:58 GMT
If you look at his per 100 and rate stats he's almost identical to last season except in 3 point shooting, where he is shooting a career low percentage.
Given that his FT shooting has always been around 65% I wonder if this is the new normal for Jaylen. But then again he shot 37.8% over 441 attempts the last couple seasons and has only let is fly 141 times this year.
I'll go 80. He was probably rated a little high to begin with. If his shooting stays at this level longer then I'll consider lowering further.
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Post by Jerry West on Jan 17, 2019 18:24:24 GMT
80
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Post by George Gervin on Jan 17, 2019 18:29:23 GMT
79 — he’s regressed since last year and it’s clear he and Rozier have suffered the most from Celtics lineup juggling/offensive pecking order
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Post by Jared Montini on Jan 17, 2019 19:22:32 GMT
79
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Kevin Hollis
Former Thunder GM for 7 years
All Star
Posts: 2,838 
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Post by Kevin Hollis on Jan 17, 2019 21:06:03 GMT
79
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Post by Walt Frazier on Jan 18, 2019 4:37:25 GMT
Wasn't super comfortable with his rating spread when I worked on him recently. He's just struggling, plain and simple, for half a season. Gotta make it show in our ratings imo.
79.5
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Post by Ian Noble on Jan 18, 2019 8:24:21 GMT
:ergh: I wait 8 months for Jaylen to get bumped, during which time he leads the Celtics in scoring* and is their best wing defender on the road to a 7-Game Conference Finals, and then 4 days later comes this thread. FWIW - last season Jaylen averaged 30 minutes per game. This season, when he plays 30 minutes or more, his stats have improved: 2017/18 - 14.5ppg 4.9rpg 1.6apg on 46/40/64 2018/19 - 16.0ppg 5.6rpg 1.4apg on 48/34/67 Looks like the damage is already done though. It's going to feel weird starting Montrezl over him. 81 * outside the 5 games he was heavily minutes restricted with hamstring injury. |
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Jan 18, 2019 9:33:49 GMT
I'm not really sure how Brown is even sniffing an 80 for you guys. To reiterate, he has literally been the worst player on the Celtics this season (apart from maybe Semi Ojeleye). He is dead last in Ortg on the Celtics, and the only players worse at Drtg are PJ Dozier and Semi Ojeleye. Brown's overall net rating is the worst on the team outside of Ojeleye.  To reiterate again, the Celtics, a team who has an overall net rating of +6.1 over 100 possessions, are -6 when Brown is on the floor. That means Brown makes the team average 12 points worse when he is on the floor. His per game averages are terrible, his advanced stats are terrible. By all metrics Brown is quite terrible. How is he possibly an 80?  |
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Post by Ian Noble on Jan 18, 2019 9:37:23 GMT
Let this be a lesson everyone - never try to stop one of Josh's players being absurdly overrated, he will exact swift revenge  |
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Jan 18, 2019 9:44:52 GMT
Let this be a lesson everyone - never try to stop one of Josh's players being absurdly overrated, he will exact swift revenge Please reconcile your 81 rating for Sabonis with your 81 rating for Brown I'll wait. |
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Post by Ian Noble on Jan 18, 2019 9:59:46 GMT
Let this be a lesson everyone - never try to stop one of Josh's players being absurdly overrated, he will exact swift revenge Please reconcile your 81 rating for Sabonis with your 81 rating for Brown I'll wait. Reconcile rating Jaylen Brown: * Lower than Tyreke Evans
* Same as George Hill
* Lower than Austin Rivers |
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Jan 18, 2019 20:06:48 GMT
Please reconcile your 81 rating for Sabonis with your 81 rating for Brown I'll wait. Reconcile rating Jaylen Brown: * Lower than Tyreke Evans
* Same as George Hill
* Lower than Austin Rivers Evans is getting gimped tho. Austin Rivers is overrated. Georgie Boy could probably use a lowering as well. |
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Jan 18, 2019 20:10:47 GMT
To be honest as far as actually rating him. Saying he's the worst player on the Celtics is a bit different than saying he's the worst player on say the Cavs or something.
That said look at his rating last year I think his defense was a bit overrated (I believe I said the same thing last season.) Those shooting percentages are a killer and Hayward being back was always going to hurt him because Hayward is making bank, they are gonna play him over Brown all day.
Based on where he is 78.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Jan 18, 2019 20:11:53 GMT
Also Marcus Smart is their best wing defender and he's not even a wing.
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Post by Hanamichi Sakuragi on Jan 18, 2019 23:59:44 GMT
77
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Post by Alex English on Jan 19, 2019 6:53:35 GMT
79.
Possibly jumped the gun, possibly he'll regain his level of play. For now though, he's definitely not playing like an 82.
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Post by Ian Noble on Jan 20, 2019 10:21:22 GMT
You rated Jaylen 84 back in May |
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Post by Hanamichi Sakuragi on Jan 20, 2019 10:33:55 GMT
You rated Jaylen 84 back in May When I thought his playoff performance was indicative of what he can really do. I was clever enough to think that he was already nearer to his ceiling than his floor and I was wrong. His stagnant numbers this and last season weigh heavier now than his breakout playoff performance. |
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Post by Ian Noble on Jan 20, 2019 10:36:55 GMT
You rated Jaylen 84 back in May When I thought his playoff performance was indicative of what he can really do. I was clever enough to think that he was already nearer to his ceiling than his floor and I was wrong. His stagnant numbers this and last season weigh heavier now than his breakout playoff performance.  |
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Post by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar on Jan 21, 2019 0:47:06 GMT
79 ^^
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Jan 21, 2019 15:59:06 GMT
Remember me bitching about people overrating playoff performances as well?
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Post by Walt Frazier on Jan 22, 2019 4:39:08 GMT
Truly think we should close the Stock Watch when the playoffs begin.
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Post by Ian Noble on Jan 22, 2019 11:46:58 GMT
Truly think we should close the Stock Watch when the playoffs begin. I can agree that player ratings in D5 should not change during D5's Playoffs. But if you mean that IRL playoff performances should be ignored, then I very much disagree In fact there's no better time to judge a player's ability than during the IRL Playoffs. |
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Post by Jared Montini on Jan 22, 2019 14:02:17 GMT
Truly think we should close the Stock Watch when the playoffs begin. I can agree that player ratings in D5 should not change during D5's Playoffs. But if you mean that IRL playoff performances should be ignored, then I very much disagree In fact there's no better time to judge a player's ability than during the IRL Playoffs. I agree 100%. Playoffs are when it matters most, it's when teams start playing real D. I think he just means close voting during playoffs. You'd still be able to justify your rating using playoff numbers |
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Jan 23, 2019 20:20:23 GMT
Truly think we should close the Stock Watch when the playoffs begin. I can agree that player ratings in D5 should not change during D5's Playoffs. But if you mean that IRL playoff performances should be ignored, then I very much disagree In fact there's no better time to judge a player's ability than during the IRL Playoffs. Then I don't wanna see anyone whining when someone submits a ratings increase with only a few games played. If we're going to massively inflate the stats of someone because of 4-6 games then it shouldn't matter where those games occur. |
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Post by Ian Noble on Jan 23, 2019 20:44:15 GMT
I can agree that player ratings in D5 should not change during D5's Playoffs. But if you mean that IRL playoff performances should be ignored, then I very much disagree In fact there's no better time to judge a player's ability than during the IRL Playoffs. Then I don't wanna see anyone whining when someone submits a ratings increase with only a few games played. If we're going to massively inflate the stats of someone because of 4-6 games then it shouldn't matter where those games occur. Playoffs matter more than regular season, and I do hold an opinion that a player shouldn't be rated 90 or over if they've never made the playoffs (see: what's Timberwolves-era-Kevin Love, current Nikola Jokic), but yeah there are less of those games obviously! |
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Post by Jerry West on Jan 23, 2019 20:47:45 GMT
Playoffs matter more than regular season, and I do hold an opinion that a player shouldn't be rated 90 or over if they've never made the playoffs (see: what's Timberwolves-era-Kevin Love, current Nikola Jokic), but yeah there are less of those games obviously! Jokic is a given to make the playoff this year, they are 2nd in the West and had key injuries all year. |
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Post by Ian Noble on Jan 23, 2019 20:52:40 GMT
Playoffs matter more than regular season, and I do hold an opinion that a player shouldn't be rated 90 or over if they've never made the playoffs (see: what's Timberwolves-era-Kevin Love, current Nikola Jokic), but yeah there are less of those games obviously! Jokic is a given to make the playoff this year, they are 2nd in the West and had key injuries all year. True, there's a difference there, but there is a part of me that feels it's a threshold that should be crossed first. |
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