3rd Time Lucky for the D5 Celtics?
Feb 6, 2016 18:01:55 GMT
Bryan Colangelo, James Kay, and 3 more like this
Post by Ian Noble on Feb 6, 2016 18:01:55 GMT
3rd Time Lucky for the D5 Celtics?
Is it wise for teams to embrace "The Process" when rebuilding? "Only if you're lucky" says Boston Celtics General Manager, Ian Noble, who has had his share of bad luck during the last three years of the Boston Celtics rebuild which followed the break-up of their 2012 Dynasty Five championship winning team.
For teams on-the-rebuild the luck starts at the Draft Lottery, continues upon selecting players and finally eventuates in the careers of the young players who have entered the league from college or overseas, and the Boston Celtics have been historically unlucky ever since the death of Len Bias in 1986.
The Celtics NBA Lottery History
Bias was selected 2nd in the 1986 Draft by the defending champion Celtics. The "...closest thing to Michael Jordan to come out in a long time" (Washington Post, June 18, 1986) could have propelled the 80s Celtics into championship contention long after back injuries took their toll on Larry Bird, but within two days of being drafted Bias had died of a heart condition after a suspected, but not proven, cocaine overdose at his hometown in Maryland.
Just over ten years later, after a series of lottery-seasons, the Celtics finished last in the league and had the best chance of picking 1st to bring Tim Duncan to Boston, but the tanking San Antonio Spurs pipped the Celtics, who slipped to 3rd, and Duncan brought five championships back to the Spurs.
Another ten years passed by and in 2007 the Celtics had finished 2nd-from-bottom in the year that Greg Oden and Kevin Durant entered the league, with Danny Ainge strongly gunning for Durant, but again the lottery balls dropped Boston from 2nd to 5th, and if it weren't for a masterful summer of trading by Danny Ainge to bring in Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett the Celtics might still be pinning hopes on Jeff Green.
D5 Lottery History
Into the Dynasty Five years and the Celtics had not one but both top chance picks, 1st and 2nd, in the 2014 Draft Lottery, a 45% chance of top pick, and fate once again dropped the Celtics all the way to the 3rd and 4th picks in the draft. GM Ian Noble's draft board would have selected Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker at 1 and 2 even if Joel Embiid had not been injured, but the tantalising consensus #1 Center became injured mere days before the draft, fell to the Celtics at #3 and the 7'3" Embiid has not played a single game since he left the Kansas Jayhawks in 2014. #4 pick Dante Exum also suffered an ACL injury to end his rookie season and was also sidelined for an entire year.
In 2015 the Celtics held an amazing five 1st Round draft picks, three of which were involved in tie-breakers. Tie-breakers were to be decided based upon D5 teams regular season record, and using this system the Celtics won all three of their tie-breakers, but after some GMs spoke out against the process it was decided that a coin-toss would decide the tie-breakers. Using the new system the Celtics then lost all three of their tie-breakers.
The Celtics rebuild continued as they finished second-last in 2015 with two other lottery picks to hand, boasting a 22.6% chance of landing top pick in the 2015 Draft and a 65.35% chance of landing in the top three. Yet again the Celtics fell to 4th and instead traded the pick, along with their 11th pick, to the Utah Jazz in order to finally obtain one of their 2014 targets: Jabari Parker. The Celtics would have picked Jahlil Okafor, Karl Towns or D'Angelo Russell had they remained in the Top 3 in 2015.
What if?
As GM of the Celtics all of this begs the question: "What if?" What if there had been some luck going the Celtics way? According to the draft boards the Celtics would have Andrew Wiggins instead of Joel Embiid, or they would have had Jahlil Okafor and the 2015 trade for Jabari Parker likely would not have happened.
But then again.. what if Joel Embiid's rehabilitation pays off and he fulfils his potential? What if Jabari Parker becomes a franchise player for the Bucks in real life? What if Dante Exum can find the offensive aggression to complement his excellent defensive play? What if the host of talented youth, headlined by Enes Kanter, mature into a solid team? And lastly... what if, in 2016, the Celtics finally get lucky with one of their potentially three lottery picks?
Surely for the Boston Celtics, surely it's third time lucky?
Is it wise for teams to embrace "The Process" when rebuilding? "Only if you're lucky" says Boston Celtics General Manager, Ian Noble, who has had his share of bad luck during the last three years of the Boston Celtics rebuild which followed the break-up of their 2012 Dynasty Five championship winning team.
For teams on-the-rebuild the luck starts at the Draft Lottery, continues upon selecting players and finally eventuates in the careers of the young players who have entered the league from college or overseas, and the Boston Celtics have been historically unlucky ever since the death of Len Bias in 1986.
The Celtics NBA Lottery History
Bias was selected 2nd in the 1986 Draft by the defending champion Celtics. The "...closest thing to Michael Jordan to come out in a long time" (Washington Post, June 18, 1986) could have propelled the 80s Celtics into championship contention long after back injuries took their toll on Larry Bird, but within two days of being drafted Bias had died of a heart condition after a suspected, but not proven, cocaine overdose at his hometown in Maryland.
Just over ten years later, after a series of lottery-seasons, the Celtics finished last in the league and had the best chance of picking 1st to bring Tim Duncan to Boston, but the tanking San Antonio Spurs pipped the Celtics, who slipped to 3rd, and Duncan brought five championships back to the Spurs.
Another ten years passed by and in 2007 the Celtics had finished 2nd-from-bottom in the year that Greg Oden and Kevin Durant entered the league, with Danny Ainge strongly gunning for Durant, but again the lottery balls dropped Boston from 2nd to 5th, and if it weren't for a masterful summer of trading by Danny Ainge to bring in Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett the Celtics might still be pinning hopes on Jeff Green.
D5 Lottery History
Into the Dynasty Five years and the Celtics had not one but both top chance picks, 1st and 2nd, in the 2014 Draft Lottery, a 45% chance of top pick, and fate once again dropped the Celtics all the way to the 3rd and 4th picks in the draft. GM Ian Noble's draft board would have selected Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker at 1 and 2 even if Joel Embiid had not been injured, but the tantalising consensus #1 Center became injured mere days before the draft, fell to the Celtics at #3 and the 7'3" Embiid has not played a single game since he left the Kansas Jayhawks in 2014. #4 pick Dante Exum also suffered an ACL injury to end his rookie season and was also sidelined for an entire year.
In 2015 the Celtics held an amazing five 1st Round draft picks, three of which were involved in tie-breakers. Tie-breakers were to be decided based upon D5 teams regular season record, and using this system the Celtics won all three of their tie-breakers, but after some GMs spoke out against the process it was decided that a coin-toss would decide the tie-breakers. Using the new system the Celtics then lost all three of their tie-breakers.
The Celtics rebuild continued as they finished second-last in 2015 with two other lottery picks to hand, boasting a 22.6% chance of landing top pick in the 2015 Draft and a 65.35% chance of landing in the top three. Yet again the Celtics fell to 4th and instead traded the pick, along with their 11th pick, to the Utah Jazz in order to finally obtain one of their 2014 targets: Jabari Parker. The Celtics would have picked Jahlil Okafor, Karl Towns or D'Angelo Russell had they remained in the Top 3 in 2015.
What if?
As GM of the Celtics all of this begs the question: "What if?" What if there had been some luck going the Celtics way? According to the draft boards the Celtics would have Andrew Wiggins instead of Joel Embiid, or they would have had Jahlil Okafor and the 2015 trade for Jabari Parker likely would not have happened.
But then again.. what if Joel Embiid's rehabilitation pays off and he fulfils his potential? What if Jabari Parker becomes a franchise player for the Bucks in real life? What if Dante Exum can find the offensive aggression to complement his excellent defensive play? What if the host of talented youth, headlined by Enes Kanter, mature into a solid team? And lastly... what if, in 2016, the Celtics finally get lucky with one of their potentially three lottery picks?
Surely for the Boston Celtics, surely it's third time lucky?