Post by Ian Noble on Feb 13, 2014 12:35:20 GMT
I tallied it up and it's taken us 83 personal messages of negotiation, over 2 weeks, to reach this conclusion:
Dallas Mavericks
Indiana Pacers
Boston Celtics
As you can see, I'm doing this for the draft picks. If I'm not very good at judging young talent over the next few years then my team will be awful.
I don't want to trade Rondo, I've never wanted to trade him. He's my favorite player, he's still only 27, he doesn't rely on his athleticism so he's got the better part of a decade of All-Star calibre years ahead of him. I have his bird rights and everything.
If I don't trade Rondo though I fear I'll be one of those teams stuck in the middle of the Eastern Conference for the foreseeable future; not good enough to make the playoffs and not bad enough to get any decent draft picks. If I trade Rondo now, early in the season, my 2014 Boston 1st Rounder will no doubt be higher, so as well as acquiring all these first rounders I'll also increase the value of my own 1st Rounder and, watching this rookie crop every day on TV, I really want as many picks as possible.
Lastly, when you look at the picks I'm receiving, only one of them is a potentially projected lottery pick (PHX 2015 1st). The rest of the picks come from quite strong teams. Dallas and Cleveland will almost certainly make the playoffs this season. Next season there's Brooklyn and Sacramento, who both have teams full of really good players that are under contract until well beyond the 2015 draft. I think the volume of picks might make the trade committee skeptical, but the quality of those picks is pretty guaranteed to be lower than your average set of 1st rounders when you actually weight it up.
Dallas Mavericks
Receive:
87 Rajon Rondo - $11,945,545 - $12,909,091
78 Nate Robinson - $2,900,000 - $3,300,000
BOS 2015 2nd
IND 2016 2nd
Total: $14,845,545
Send:
83 Shawn Marion - $9,066,796
69 Patrick Patterson - $3,105,302 - $4,319,474
CLE 2014 1st
DAL 2014 1st
BKN 2015 1st
PHX 2015 1st
Total: $12,172,098
Indiana Pacers
Receive:
83 Shawn Marion - $9,066,796
74 Avery Bradley - $2,511,432 - $3,581,302
Total: $11,578,228 (Will use $4,208,680 of the Pacers $5,035,180 cap space).
Send:
72 Ekpe Udoh - $4,469,548 - $5,962,377
78 Nate Robinson - $2,900,000 - $3,300,000
IND 2015 2nd
SAC 2015 1st
IND 2016 1st
Total: $7,369,548
Boston Celtics
Receive:
72 Ekpe Udoh - $4,469,548 - $5,962,377
69 Patrick Patterson - $3,105,302 - $4,319,474
DAL 2014 1st
CLE 2014 1st
BKN 2015 1st
PHX 2015 1st
SAC 2015 1st
IND 2016 1st
Total: $7,574,850
Send:
87 Rajon Rondo - $11,945,545 - $12,909,091
74 Avery Bradley - $2,511,432 - $3,581,302
BOS 2015 2nd
Total: $14,456,977
As you can see, I'm doing this for the draft picks. If I'm not very good at judging young talent over the next few years then my team will be awful.
I don't want to trade Rondo, I've never wanted to trade him. He's my favorite player, he's still only 27, he doesn't rely on his athleticism so he's got the better part of a decade of All-Star calibre years ahead of him. I have his bird rights and everything.
If I don't trade Rondo though I fear I'll be one of those teams stuck in the middle of the Eastern Conference for the foreseeable future; not good enough to make the playoffs and not bad enough to get any decent draft picks. If I trade Rondo now, early in the season, my 2014 Boston 1st Rounder will no doubt be higher, so as well as acquiring all these first rounders I'll also increase the value of my own 1st Rounder and, watching this rookie crop every day on TV, I really want as many picks as possible.
Lastly, when you look at the picks I'm receiving, only one of them is a potentially projected lottery pick (PHX 2015 1st). The rest of the picks come from quite strong teams. Dallas and Cleveland will almost certainly make the playoffs this season. Next season there's Brooklyn and Sacramento, who both have teams full of really good players that are under contract until well beyond the 2015 draft. I think the volume of picks might make the trade committee skeptical, but the quality of those picks is pretty guaranteed to be lower than your average set of 1st rounders when you actually weight it up.