Post by Alex English on Jun 30, 2022 5:06:08 GMT
I'm done picking so here's the annual big board post for posterity's sake.
This year my tiers broke down like this:
Tier 1 (1-2): Chet and Paolo (Probable stars, maybe superstars)
Tier 2 (3): Jabari (6'10" Klay Thompson)
Tier 3 (4-9): Best of the rest (Projectable starters with potential star upside)
Tier 4 (10-17): Good but not great (Elite role players with varying levels of upside)
Tier 5 (18-26): Good but with flaws (Good role players that probably won't exceed that level)
Tier 6 (27-41): Boom-bust, boring (Mix of poorly performing young players, and at-best role players)
Tier 7 (42-60): Long-shot lottery tickets and guys that probably just suck (They all probably suck)
Tier 8 (Honourable Mentions): They totally suck, but honourably.
Tier 9 (Unranked): Everybody else
This year my tiers broke down like this:
Tier 1 (1-2): Chet and Paolo (Probable stars, maybe superstars)
- I started this off with Chet alone in his own tier. I never got this top 3 stuff, let alone top 4. He may be slender man, but he plays physical and should be able to put on at least some weight. He has true unicorn potential where he could be good at everything and truly elite at a few things as well.
- The more I looked, the more I liked Paolo. He absolutely has the highest floor of the top guys and his passing is really what might take him to the next level. I couldn't move him ahead of Chet because of his insanely high ceiling, but he's a very respectable 2nd on my board and definitely ahead of Jabari.
Tier 2 (3): Jabari (6'10" Klay Thompson)
- Jabari at number 1 never made sense to me. He's bad at both self creation and creating for others. I do like his defense, but I'm curious how he'll hold up without Walker Kessler backing him up. However his shooting is the most valuable skill of any player in this draft so he still has a ton of value. I see him more as a play finisher rather than a primary offensive weapon though. Like a 6'10" Klay Thompson.
Tier 3 (4-9): Best of the rest (Projectable starters with potential star upside)
- Ivey falls into this tier for me and is only at the top because of amazing physical tools. I think he's got some flaws and is definitely no Ja Morant.
- Mathurin and Davis are pretty comparable to me. Mathurin is obviously much more efficient and has a higher ceiling in my opinion, but Davis is the better defender. For me Davis is a bet that when his role scales down he'll be much more efficient and so his value as a second or third option will come through. I can't say why, but I like that bet. If he stays as an inefficient volume scorer I'd definitely drop him a bunch.
- Murray was amazing this year. If I gave him full credit for his performance he'd probably be on the tier with Jabari. However he's a sophomore of senior age and was nowhere near this impressive as a freshman, so there's some caution here for me.
- Dyson is all about his shot. If he becomes a good shooter then I think he'll be the best player in this tier because he has everything else. There's a long way for him to go to prove his shooting though.
- Sharpe, who knows. Some clips of him playing in high school can never give an accurate portrayal. I stuck him at the end of this tier because you can obviously see the flashes, but really all I can confidently say about him is that he can jump high.
Tier 4 (10-17): Good but not great (Elite role players with varying levels of upside)
- The three bigs are kind of tied in my mind. Duren is ahead just due to freak athleticism and age, so higher ceiling. I've been confused why Kessler was so much lower on mock drafts, I'm really high on him. Mark Williams is the most polished of the three, but also the least likely to break out of the DeAndre Jordan/Clint Capela style big man role. He has an absolute ideal fit in Charlotte though, so if I were to make post-draft adjustments, I'd put him 10th.
- I wish Branham was more explosive and better defensively, because he'd be an obvious top five prospect. He's got real elite shot making potential, but may end up being of similar value to AJ Griffin who I see as the more classic secondary wing player.
- Procida comes in as my top international prospect. I love this guy and don't understand why he hasn't gotten more love. He's got the shooting like some typical euro wing, but has atypically awesome athleticism, which really raises his floor to me. He's shown little to no creation ability, unlike Dieng ranked just below him who scores pretty impressively on the eye test, but actually performed terribly. They're kind of yin-yang as the high floor 3&D role player Procida and the boom-bust raw but high ceiling Dieng.
- Jalen Williams is a nice player too. I'm going to stop writing about everyone, this is going to get way too long.
Tier 5 (18-26): Good but with flaws (Good role players that probably won't exceed that level)
- I like a lot of these guys, but they're not really well-rounded or have lower ceilings. I don't believe Sochan develops enough offensively to break out as more than a defensive specialist. Tari is a powerful bully that overwhelms but lacks polished skills. Ochai can shoot, but not sure he does anything else better than average at the NBA level. Jovic is trash on defense, etc. You get the point.
- I still like many of these guys for what they do offer though and an atypical development curve could really shoot any one of these guys much higher.
Tier 6 (27-41): Boom-bust, boring (Mix of poorly performing young players, and at-best role players)
- Here you can grab some premium lottery tickets, like Blake Wesley, Jaden Hardy, Max Christie, etc.
- Or guys that I think lack the tools to ever develop into more than role players, like LaRavia, Nembhard, Braun, Moore, etc.
Tier 7 (42-60): Long-shot lottery tickets and guys that probably just suck (They all probably suck)
- I'd really focus on the lottery tickets in this tier and hope their college performance is a blip in their overall development. So PBJ, McGowans, Houstan, etc.
Tier 8 (Honourable Mentions): They totally suck, but honourably.
- I'm sure a few of these guys will break through, but by and large, all the decent players should be gone by now. Like, Colin Gillespie might be an elite third-string PG, and Kenneth Lofton might lose 40 pounds and uncover the fantastic basketball player that's somewhere in there, and maybe JD Notae won't be such an inefficient offensive player that his defense becomes of real value. There's a maybe in here for all these guys, but I bet maybe not.
Tier 9 (Unranked): Everybody else
- So I'm just some guy that scouts with stats and whatever internet footage I find. I'm no pro, so there's probably a good player or two in here, but I didn't see them, or discounted them because they're old. My almost honourable mentions were Alex Barcello, Keve Aluma, Justin Bean, Kam McGusty, Scotty Pippen Jr., Gui Santos and Fabian White. So I'd guess one of them might be the hidden gems.
- Speaking of old, Justin Bean was born about two weeks after Devin Booker. Seven year veteran, drafted in 2015, Devin Booker. A few of these guys are so old you can hardly call them prospects anymore.