Post by James Kay on Jan 31, 2020 19:57:53 GMT
As we approach halfway through the season, let's take a look at the upcoming free agents for this off-season.
But first, let's take a look at some of the teams that might be pursuing them. I've divided them into tiers, and I also tried to rank them within those tiers. I used a projected cap of $116M, and have given rounded estimates for cap space. I should note that a lot of the marquee players are already on solid teams and the following suitors may have mixed results in trying to tempt them away from their already established success.
I also have not considered teams over the cap trying to re-sign their own players, and I also did not consider those teams that have limited cap space, with cap obligations over $90M, (sorry teams like OKC, WAS, and TOR).
Finally, let's also note the following structure for max individual contracts, assuming a cap of $116M:
Under 7 years: $29M
7-9 years: $34.8M
10+ years: $40.6M
Suitors
Tier 1:
A) Memphis Grizzlies - Cap Space: $61M
Perhaps the best suitor this off-season will be the Memphis Grizzlies. With Jokic and Mitchell already on board, and KAT's BRs, the Grizzlies have two of the best young bigs, and one of the very best young guards. What puts them over the edge, IMO, is that they have good GM leadership and have shown a willingness to compete, acquiring competitive pieces throughout their recent seasons.
Issues to deal with: Doesn't have BRs on Bojan, probably doesn't want to retain Teague, can Kat and Jokic co-exist?
Targeting: SF or PG.
B) San Antonio Spurs - Cap Space: $81M
Vaulting up to second place is San Antonio, and it was pretty close deciding between SAS and MEM. Both SAS and MEM have pretty solid bench pieces already lined up. But, MEM has 3 stars while SAS only has 2. However, SAS's stars are younger, and their GM is a little less experienced than Jeremiah, and their best move has been drafting what many called a no-brainer in Doncic. That being said, SGA was a great pick and acquiring Ibaka seems to have really made them competitive lately, proving that another star could have a similar impact.
Issues to deal with: Roster is somewhat empty (only 7-8 players on team next year).
Targeting: Big.
C) Brooklyn Nets - $63M
The Nets are solidly Tier 1 this off-season. Kyrie, Booker, Warren, Collins, and Porzingis is a young, balanced, and incredibly skilled lineup. The only thing keeping them from being A in this tier, and it's a somewhat big thing, is that technically the only player of note actually on the Nets next year is John Collins. Irving, Booker, Porzingis, and Warren are all free agents. While the Nets retain BRs on Booker and Porzingis, they do not have the BRs for Irving or Warren. The current team would certainly be a draw on any big name FA, but GM Barber may be stretched a little thin trying to keep the players currently on his roster. I would recommend stepping down from his usual PA duties.
Issues to deal with: Retaining current players, Porzingis injury concerns, no 1st rounders.
Targeting: Wing or PF, maybe C.
Tier 2:
A) Pelicans - Cap Space: $48M
The Pelicans are one of the hottest up and coming teams in D5 right now. With a young lineup of Trae Young, Jaren Jackson, Jr., and Brandon Clarke paired with the veteran leadership of Gordon Hawyard, they may be only a piece + a few years from perennial contention. They also have a decent amount of young talent in the pipeline like Melton, Thybulle, and Willias, as well as some high value firsts coming up.
Issues: Unproven/young talent.
Targeting: SG.
B) Hawks - Cap Space: $39M
Like the Pelicans, the Hawks have also been on the come-up after a somewhat long period of rebuilding. They recently acquired Jimmy Butler, and their young talent of Fox, Markkanen, and Oubre has looked truly promising. Nurkic is also a really solid big if he can get healthy again (the IRL Blazers are missing him).
Issues: Re-signing Oubre, Markkanen's recent struggles (probably Boylen's fault), Nurkic's injury, no 1st this year.
Targeting: Anything.
C) Bucks - Cap Space: $18M or $28M
I've put the Bucks at the bottom of Tier 2, but they could really vault up to A or even Tier 1 with just a few roster moves. With Gasol expiring and a PO likely to be declined by Lou Will, the Bucks are looking at a roster headlined by Anthony Davis and Bradley Beal, with pieces Bogdanovic, D. Murray, and Garland with Myles Turner likely to be re-signed with BRs. They've also recently won a championship and have had continued success as contenders.
Issues: Re-signing Turner who has had to play behind other players his whole career thus far, making room for a max contract, Lou Will picking up his option.
Targeting: Guard, maybe a wing.
Tier 3:
A) Utah Jazz - Cap Space: $56M
The Jazz have all their firsts, and a young roster with decent promise, and lots of cap space. Tatum, Collins, Sexton, Bagley, Culver is a lot of potential. However, they will have to overcome a reputation for losing as well as being, well, in Utah. However, there's potential here to perhaps consolidate assets and land 1 star first to pair with Tatum, and then attempt to lure another in FA.
Issues: Unproven young talent, can a star help them win?
Targeting: C, anything.
B) Pacers - Cap Space: $50M
The Pacers have a roster that never seems to stay the same. However, they currently have a fairly solid accumulation of young assets in J. Allen and VanVleet to pair with hard-nosed veterans Draymond, Randle, and Morris (although those are all PFs).
Issues: Re-signing VanVleet, Dinwiddie, and maybe E. Gordon, no 1st this year.
Targeting: Probably more PFs.
Tier D (aka honorable mentions):
A) Detroit Pistons - Cap Space: $69M
B) Dallas Mavericks - Cap Space: $39M
C) Los Angeles Lakers - Cap Space: $57M
These teams have cap space, but are likely to find it difficult to convince any big-names or even medium names to join their squads, as they are lacking in major asset to pair with them. However, I should note that the Pistons have two promising rookies in Ayton and White, while the Mavericks have likely ROTY Ja Morant as well as Barton and Monk. I cannot say the same about the Lakers.
Finally, here is a list of notable upcoming FAs, also organized into tiers, although not really ranked within those tiers.
Tier 1:
Lebron James
Kawhi Leonard
Paul George
Steph Curry
Russel Westbrook
Kyrie Irving
Devin Booker
Karl-Anthony Towns
Tier 2:
Blake Griffin
Kemba Walker
Kristaps Porzingis
Myles Turner
Tobias Harris
Andre Drummond
Tier 3:
TJ Warren
Danilo Gallinari
Montrezl Harrell
Bojan Bogdanovic
Kelly Oubre
Fred VanVleet
Jeff Teague
Lou Williams
Terry Rozier
Kyle Kuzma
Derrick Rose
But first, let's take a look at some of the teams that might be pursuing them. I've divided them into tiers, and I also tried to rank them within those tiers. I used a projected cap of $116M, and have given rounded estimates for cap space. I should note that a lot of the marquee players are already on solid teams and the following suitors may have mixed results in trying to tempt them away from their already established success.
I also have not considered teams over the cap trying to re-sign their own players, and I also did not consider those teams that have limited cap space, with cap obligations over $90M, (sorry teams like OKC, WAS, and TOR).
Finally, let's also note the following structure for max individual contracts, assuming a cap of $116M:
Under 7 years: $29M
7-9 years: $34.8M
10+ years: $40.6M
Suitors
Tier 1:
A) Memphis Grizzlies - Cap Space: $61M
Perhaps the best suitor this off-season will be the Memphis Grizzlies. With Jokic and Mitchell already on board, and KAT's BRs, the Grizzlies have two of the best young bigs, and one of the very best young guards. What puts them over the edge, IMO, is that they have good GM leadership and have shown a willingness to compete, acquiring competitive pieces throughout their recent seasons.
Issues to deal with: Doesn't have BRs on Bojan, probably doesn't want to retain Teague, can Kat and Jokic co-exist?
Targeting: SF or PG.
B) San Antonio Spurs - Cap Space: $81M
Vaulting up to second place is San Antonio, and it was pretty close deciding between SAS and MEM. Both SAS and MEM have pretty solid bench pieces already lined up. But, MEM has 3 stars while SAS only has 2. However, SAS's stars are younger, and their GM is a little less experienced than Jeremiah, and their best move has been drafting what many called a no-brainer in Doncic. That being said, SGA was a great pick and acquiring Ibaka seems to have really made them competitive lately, proving that another star could have a similar impact.
Issues to deal with: Roster is somewhat empty (only 7-8 players on team next year).
Targeting: Big.
C) Brooklyn Nets - $63M
The Nets are solidly Tier 1 this off-season. Kyrie, Booker, Warren, Collins, and Porzingis is a young, balanced, and incredibly skilled lineup. The only thing keeping them from being A in this tier, and it's a somewhat big thing, is that technically the only player of note actually on the Nets next year is John Collins. Irving, Booker, Porzingis, and Warren are all free agents. While the Nets retain BRs on Booker and Porzingis, they do not have the BRs for Irving or Warren. The current team would certainly be a draw on any big name FA, but GM Barber may be stretched a little thin trying to keep the players currently on his roster. I would recommend stepping down from his usual PA duties.
Issues to deal with: Retaining current players, Porzingis injury concerns, no 1st rounders.
Targeting: Wing or PF, maybe C.
Tier 2:
A) Pelicans - Cap Space: $48M
The Pelicans are one of the hottest up and coming teams in D5 right now. With a young lineup of Trae Young, Jaren Jackson, Jr., and Brandon Clarke paired with the veteran leadership of Gordon Hawyard, they may be only a piece + a few years from perennial contention. They also have a decent amount of young talent in the pipeline like Melton, Thybulle, and Willias, as well as some high value firsts coming up.
Issues: Unproven/young talent.
Targeting: SG.
B) Hawks - Cap Space: $39M
Like the Pelicans, the Hawks have also been on the come-up after a somewhat long period of rebuilding. They recently acquired Jimmy Butler, and their young talent of Fox, Markkanen, and Oubre has looked truly promising. Nurkic is also a really solid big if he can get healthy again (the IRL Blazers are missing him).
Issues: Re-signing Oubre, Markkanen's recent struggles (probably Boylen's fault), Nurkic's injury, no 1st this year.
Targeting: Anything.
C) Bucks - Cap Space: $18M or $28M
I've put the Bucks at the bottom of Tier 2, but they could really vault up to A or even Tier 1 with just a few roster moves. With Gasol expiring and a PO likely to be declined by Lou Will, the Bucks are looking at a roster headlined by Anthony Davis and Bradley Beal, with pieces Bogdanovic, D. Murray, and Garland with Myles Turner likely to be re-signed with BRs. They've also recently won a championship and have had continued success as contenders.
Issues: Re-signing Turner who has had to play behind other players his whole career thus far, making room for a max contract, Lou Will picking up his option.
Targeting: Guard, maybe a wing.
Tier 3:
A) Utah Jazz - Cap Space: $56M
The Jazz have all their firsts, and a young roster with decent promise, and lots of cap space. Tatum, Collins, Sexton, Bagley, Culver is a lot of potential. However, they will have to overcome a reputation for losing as well as being, well, in Utah. However, there's potential here to perhaps consolidate assets and land 1 star first to pair with Tatum, and then attempt to lure another in FA.
Issues: Unproven young talent, can a star help them win?
Targeting: C, anything.
B) Pacers - Cap Space: $50M
The Pacers have a roster that never seems to stay the same. However, they currently have a fairly solid accumulation of young assets in J. Allen and VanVleet to pair with hard-nosed veterans Draymond, Randle, and Morris (although those are all PFs).
Issues: Re-signing VanVleet, Dinwiddie, and maybe E. Gordon, no 1st this year.
Targeting: Probably more PFs.
Tier D (aka honorable mentions):
A) Detroit Pistons - Cap Space: $69M
B) Dallas Mavericks - Cap Space: $39M
C) Los Angeles Lakers - Cap Space: $57M
These teams have cap space, but are likely to find it difficult to convince any big-names or even medium names to join their squads, as they are lacking in major asset to pair with them. However, I should note that the Pistons have two promising rookies in Ayton and White, while the Mavericks have likely ROTY Ja Morant as well as Barton and Monk. I cannot say the same about the Lakers.
Finally, here is a list of notable upcoming FAs, also organized into tiers, although not really ranked within those tiers.
Tier 1:
Lebron James
Kawhi Leonard
Paul George
Steph Curry
Russel Westbrook
Kyrie Irving
Devin Booker
Karl-Anthony Towns
Tier 2:
Blake Griffin
Kemba Walker
Kristaps Porzingis
Myles Turner
Tobias Harris
Andre Drummond
Tier 3:
TJ Warren
Danilo Gallinari
Montrezl Harrell
Bojan Bogdanovic
Kelly Oubre
Fred VanVleet
Jeff Teague
Lou Williams
Terry Rozier
Kyle Kuzma
Derrick Rose