Tim Duncan
Former Jazz GM
Sophomore
Posts: 482
Mar 9, 2022 22:04:51 GMT
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Post by Tim Duncan on Apr 12, 2019 8:30:05 GMT
1.GSW v 8.LAC
Injuries
GSW-Damian Jones(out for the playoffs)
LAC-No Injuries
Stats Comparision
Category GSW LAC Advantage
OFFRTG 114.9 112.3 GSW
DEFRTG 108.5 110.3 GSW
NETRTG 6.4 1.9 GSW
REB% 50.5 50.3 GSW
AST% 66.8 61.9 GSW
TOV% 13.9 13.7 LAC
TS% 59.6 57.9 GSW
Advantage-GSW in terms of stats comparison
Note-The stats for LAC are the stats post ASB in order to only have stats post Tobias Harris trade which effectively gives accurate stats of the current LAC roster.
Comparison of Starting Lineups
GSW LAC Advantage
Curry SGA GSW
Klay Bev GSW
KD Shamet GSW
Dray Gallo GSW
Cousins Zubac GSW
Dray vs Gallo is a close call due to Dray having a down year and Gallo having a career year but considering the fit of GSW and the playoffs I choose Dray over Gallo
Advantage-GSW
Playoff Experience
GSW LAC
677 games 148 games
Advantage-GSW
This total is the sum of playoff games played by the 10 players with the most mpg on either roster.
Summary
GSW outmatches LAC in each and every Category.
GSW have better team stats,more star power,more playoff experience and are also the two time defending champions.
LAC have punched above their weight in the regular season even after trading away their best player(Tobias Harris).However,they lack star power and experience and basically have no shot at beating GSW in a 7-game series.
Prediction-GSW in 4
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Post by Tom Izzo on Apr 12, 2019 8:40:44 GMT
That's a long write up just to have the Warriors in 4. Agreed but I feel like we can skip these for every Warriors series
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Post by Jerry West on Apr 12, 2019 9:22:00 GMT
Shouldn't this go on General Discussion?
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Tim Duncan
Former Jazz GM
Sophomore
Posts: 482
Mar 9, 2022 22:04:51 GMT
|
Post by Tim Duncan on Apr 12, 2019 11:10:58 GMT
2.DEN v 7.SAS Injuries DEN-MPJ(out for the season) SAS-Dejounte Murray(out for the season),Dante Cunningham(day to day)
Stats Comparison
Category DEN SAS Advantage OFFRTG 112.1 112.2 SAS DEFRTG 108 110.5 DEN NETRTG 4.1 1.7 DEN REB% 52.4 50.1 DEN AST% 65.3 58 DEN TOV% 13.6 12.2 SAS TS% 55.8 57.2 SAS
Advantage-DEN in terms of stats comparison
Comparison of Starting Lineups
DEN SAS Advantage Jamal White DEN Harris DeRozan SAS Barton Forbes Even Millsap Aldridge SAS Jokic Poetl DEN
Advantage-Both teams have equal firepower in terms of starters with the Nuggets having the best player on the court in Jokic but his lack of playoff experience worries me.On the other hand,the Spurs have a great duo in DeRozan and Aldridge with them being surrounded by good role players.However,DeRozan hasn’t been a great playoff performer with the Raptors in previous seasons but lets see if he manages to turn it around with the Spurs who have one of the greatest coaches in Pop.
Depth Advantage-DEN by a small margin due to the fact that when their starters got injured,they still managed to stay at the top of the West with players like Monte Morris,Malik Beasley and Torrey Craig contributing.
However,SAS have some good bench players in Bertans,Belinelli and Gay with Belinelli and Bertans capable of shooting the lights out.
Playoff Experience DEN SAS 123 games 331 games
Advantage-SAS This total is the sum of playoff games played by the 10 players with the most mpg on either roster.
Coach DEN SAS Mike Malone Pop
Advantage-SAS
Malone has done a great job in the regular season and imo deserves to be COTY runner up but he has never coached a playoff game whereas Pop has won 5 rings and has 23 playoff seasons and in the process has coached 277 playoff games.
Prediction-SAS in 6
While DEN had a great regular season,their lack of playoff experience will hurt them .Also Malone is bound to get outcoached by Pop. This series can go to a game 7 due to both teams not being great travellers. If this series goes to a game 7 then it can go either ways as DEN has been great at home while Spurs struggles on the road but I doubt if Nuggets can close out a game 7. Anyways my money is on the Spurs but expect a close contest.
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Tim Duncan
Former Jazz GM
Sophomore
Posts: 482
Mar 9, 2022 22:04:51 GMT
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Post by Tim Duncan on Apr 12, 2019 13:06:02 GMT
Sorry guys messed up the SAS v DEN post just editing it now
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Tim Duncan
Former Jazz GM
Sophomore
Posts: 482
Mar 9, 2022 22:04:51 GMT
|
Post by Tim Duncan on Apr 12, 2019 13:59:24 GMT
3.POR v 6.OKC Injuries POR-Nurkic(out for the season) OKC-Roberson(out for the season),
Stats Comparison
Category POR OKC Advantage OFFRTG 110.9 109.8 POR DEFRTG 113.4 106.4 OKC NETRTG -2.5 3.4 OKC REB% 51.3 50.9 POR AST% 53.7 54.8 OKC TOV% 14.9 13.4 OKC EFG% 53.6 51.4 POR Note-The POR stats are basically off the court stats for Nurkic as it gives a somewhat accurate representation of how POR plays when Nurkic is not on the floor.However,it is not totally accurate because this also factors in the games Nurkic was playing but the second unit was on the court which slightly slowers POR’s stats. Also EFG% was used in place of TS% because I didn’t find TS% when Nurkic is off the court. Advantage-OKC in terms of stats comparison
Comparison of Starting Lineups
POR OKC Advantage Dame Russ Even CJ Ferguson POR Harkless PG13 OKC Aminu Grant OKC Kanter Adams OKC
Advantage-OKC but not by a lot.Grant v Aminu was a tough decision but I went with Grant due to better shooting stats.Dame v Russ is a very important matchup as the series is largely dependent on who performs better.If Dame chokes like last year ,POR have no chance against OKC.Russ needs to be efficient and not shoot OKC out of the game.
Depth Advantage-POR Seth ,Hood and Collins seem like great bench players to me whereas I don’t really believe in OKC’s bench.Schroder is good but unpredictable and Noel has been decent too but I believe POR has the better bench.
Playoff Experience POR OKC 205 games 321 games
Advantage-OKC This total is the sum of playoff games played by the 10 players with the most mpg on either roster.
Prediction-OKC in 6 POR will be hurt by the loss of Nurkic and while Kanter is a double-double machine,he is horrendous defensively.OKC’s over reliance on Russ and PG13 might hurt them but those 2 players hold the key to them winning the series.Russ should find it easy against the defensively weak backcourt of Dame and CJ but should be in control and not take an insane amount of shots.If PG13 becomes MVPG again then POR has no chance against OKC.Lets hope OKC doesn’t become inconsistent and choke this series away.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Apr 12, 2019 14:43:09 GMT
Great Write Up, here's my personal predictions/disagreements with yours.
GSW-LAC
I don't think GSW sweeps the starters argument. Gallinari is better than Draymond Green in my opinion. For the first time in a long time GSW does have a crack in their roster dominance.
I do have GSW in 4 but I'm not going to surprised if LAC steals one and gets the Gentleman's Sweep.
DEN-SAS
I don't think the matchup between Barton and Forbes is even. Barton has been gradually improving from his injury since coming back and I think that continues.
That and in terms of depth, the Spurs have playoff success cancer in Rudy Gay.
I think that the absence of DeJounte Murray hurts SAS a lot more than people will admit.
Defense will win this I think and Denver has been better on that end the whole season even with players regularly missing time which means their young depth pieces have experience playing larger roles as well. We can also talk about perceived lack of "clutchness" in the 2 big name players on SAS as well.
Denver in 7
POR-OKC
This will all come down to whether or not Westbrook wants to shoot them out of games or not. That said Aminu is better than Grant but missing Nurkic with the leg is gonna just kill them.
OKC in 7.
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Tim Duncan
Former Jazz GM
Sophomore
Posts: 482
Mar 9, 2022 22:04:51 GMT
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Post by Tim Duncan on Apr 12, 2019 20:06:05 GMT
4.HOU v 5.UTA
Injuries HOU-No major injuries UTA-Exum(out for the season),
Stats Comparison
Category HOU UTA Advantage OFFRTG 114.8 110.2 HOU DEFRTG 110.1 105.2 UTA NETRTG 4.7 5.0 UTA REB% 48.1 52.2 UTA AST% 54.1 64.4 UTA TOV% 13.4 14.9 HOU TS% 58.1 57.2 HOU Advantage-UTA but not by a lot
Comparison of Starting Lineups
HOU UTA Advantage CP3 Rubio HOU Harden Mitchell HOU Gordon Ingles UTA Tucker Favors UTA Capela Gobert UTA Advantage-UTA but Ingles v Gordon was close but Ingles has been the better shooter and the better defender and we have to keep in mind what he did to Playoff P last season. Tucker v Favors was another close one and while Favors is the better player,Tucker fits into D’Antoni’s system perfectly while hitting those corner threes and defending well.
Playoff Experience HOU UTA 478 games 382 games
Advantage-HOU This total is the sum of playoff games played by the 10 players with the most mpg on either roster. Experience doesn’t seem to be a problem for either team as the Rockets were just a game away from defeating GSW and while they don’t have Ariza and Mbah a Moute ,they still have plenty of experience. The Jazz starters had really less playoff experience last year but they still managed to defeat OKC with a rookie leading the way.Ingles really stepped up that series too despite going up against a way more experienced PG13 Prediction-HOU in 7 I believe that this will be the closest series with the result going either way. I had Utah as a dark horse candidate for the WCF but its unfortunate that they meet HOU in the first round and will most probably meet GSW in the second round. Utah is a well coached team composed of great players with an elite defence.They have arguably the best rim protector in the league in Gobert.Last year,Utah made some noise in the playoffs and I expect them to fight well this year too.
Houston is one of the best offensive teams this season.Hopefully Harden can perform like he has been in the regular seasons instead of having a meltdown like he did in Game 6 against the Spurs in 2017.Houston better hope CP3 stays healthy otherwise it can end up costing them a lot.
This matchup is between the league’s 2nd best offense and the 2nd best defence and it is going to be a close contest but I have Houston winning it with homecourt in game 7 being a vital factor in this prediction.
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Post by Jerry West on Apr 12, 2019 20:07:42 GMT
Getting a bit worried that we're the same person because even in game number our predictions are pretty much the same Tim Duncan
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Apr 12, 2019 20:09:31 GMT
Can't wait to see the East write up.
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Tim Duncan
Former Jazz GM
Sophomore
Posts: 482
Mar 9, 2022 22:04:51 GMT
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Post by Tim Duncan on Apr 12, 2019 20:10:13 GMT
Getting a bit worried that we're the same person because even in game number our predictions are pretty much the same Tim Duncan Lol thats pretty insane .Also i thought i was the only person who thinks Utah can take Houston to 7 games with most people having HOU in 5 or 6
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Tim Duncan
Former Jazz GM
Sophomore
Posts: 482
Mar 9, 2022 22:04:51 GMT
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Post by Tim Duncan on Apr 12, 2019 20:11:06 GMT
Guys if you have any suggestions feel free to tell me about it
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Post by George Gervin on Apr 12, 2019 21:07:44 GMT
Utah to me feels like the likeliest bet to “upset” their opponent in the first round out West; they have the defense to give Houston problems, and who knows when— not if— the annual Chris Paul playoff injury occurs for Houston
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Post by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar on Apr 13, 2019 1:30:33 GMT
(1)GSW vs (8)LAC | GSW in 6 (2)DEN vs (7)SAS | DEN in 7 (3)POR vs (6)OKC | OKC in 6 (4)HOU vs (5)UTA | UTA in 7
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Washington Wizards
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