J.J. Redick

[Brian Scalabrine]

Current Rating: 77

Stats: 15 ppg, 2rpg, 1 apg
Last Year: 16.3 ppg, 2rpg, 1.4 apg

44% 3P
62.5% TS
15.2 PER (17.5 last year)
0.4 BPM


This guy is one of the top 5 shooters in the game still and is unbelievably efficient. He's a pretty good defender at this point, not a real liability and he is IMO the best catch and shoot guy in the NBA. He's the perfect compliment to any PG and is arguably the best 3 and D guy in the league, alongside a healthy Middleton. 

Suggested Rating: 83

[Alex English]

Can you be a 3 and D player if you're all 3 and no D? I've never thought of Redick as a good defender. His career Defensive BPM is -2.0 and he's never had a season with a positive DBPM is his entire career. Also his Defensive RPM is -1.05 and to put that into perspective, James Harden, the worst defender in the history of the sport of basketball, has a -1.12 DRPM. So I'm not sold on the "D" part of his game.

I'll go with a 78 because that's what we gave Kyle Korver. They're very similar players who are basically just catch and shoot guys that need a drive and kick opportunity from an attacking guard or they need to be run off of screens. JJ doesn't rebound, or make plays, or really do anything besides make shots that are created for him by other players. So I don't see where all the rating points of an 80+ player can go toward based on his skill set.

[Brian Scalabrine]

Ok, Ill provide some stats to backup my evaluation of him as a good defender, much better than korver ever was.

2015-16
On court Defensive Rating 102.2
Off Court Defensive Rating 105.7

2014-15
On Court D Rating 104
Off Court D Rating 107.9

This year his defense is better than ever!
On Court D Rating 101.4
Off Court D Rating 105.7

So if Redick is a bad defender why are his teams much better on defense with him on the floor and much worse when he's off the floor? It isn't a sample size thing, this trend goes back years for Redick, check his stats.

Now you might say, oh that's because he usually shares the floor with Deandre who's a great Defender, even though I personally don't think he is.

But Last Year:
D Rating with DeAndre on the floor: 103.3
D Rating with Redick on the floor: 102.2

So that pokes a major hole in that argument.

DRPM is an okay stat but it overvalues things such as steals and like all other D stats available is unable to completely tell the picture on D.

On off isn't perfect but when a trend goes back years and is as clear as Redick's is, I think we should look at it carefully.

Not to mention that Kyle Korver isn't anywhere near JJ's class as an offensive player.

Edit:
To add to this, on NBA.com you can see that JJ had a 49.5% Defensive Field Goal Percentage last year which is 10th among guards with 20 MPG who played 60 games or more last year. Kyle Korver's was 56.5%

I'm not sure why DRPM hates him but many other forms of defensive advanced stats seem to think he's a really good defender. And every stats points to him being far superior on defense to Kyle Korver

[Hanamichi Sakuragi]

It will help Brian if you can suggest where to put the 75 points addition that you are asking

[Brian Scalabrine]

Dec 12, 2016 0:46:59 GMT Hanamichi Sakuragi said:

It will help Brian if you can suggest where to put the 75 points addition that you are asking

I'd rather leave that up to Walt, Ian and the rating committee. I just think that as an NBA player JJ deserves to be an 83 given his skills and production. 

[Kevin Hollis]

Dec 11, 2016 23:59:12 GMT Alex English said:

Can you be a 3 and D player if you're all 3 and no D? I've never thought of Redick as a good defender. His career Defensive BPM is -2.0 and he's never had a season with a positive DBPM is his entire career. Also his Defensive RPM is -1.05 and to put that into perspective, James Harden, the worst defender in the history of the sport of basketball, has a -1.12 DRPM. So I'm not sold on the "D" part of his game.

I'll go with a 78 because that's what we gave Kyle Korver. They're very similar players who are basically just catch and shoot guys that need a drive and kick opportunity from an attacking guard or they need to be run off of screens. JJ doesn't rebound, or make plays, or really do anything besides make shots that are created for him by other players. So I don't see where all the rating points of an 80+ player can go toward based on his skill set.

Always have to compare the white guys to one another. 78

[Larry Bird]

75. All of his stats have decreased from last year.

[Alex English]

Those stats are interesting, but it doesn't really give context. I'm sure I've had this argument with you and/or James Kay before, but +/- stats don't always do the best job of showing the individual contributions of a player when they're just one of ten players on the court at any given time. They're tricky things to give consistent and reliable measurements since they don't account for who you're playing with, and who you're playing against. Substitution patterns play a huge role on any kind of +/- or on/off statistic.

But to try and add some context, we can look at the entire Clippers on/off stats page:
www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAC/2017/on-off/

So Redick has a net -4.3 rating in the effect of opponent offenses when he's on the court. That's cool and all, but Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin are all having a much stronger effect. They have net ratings of -8.2, -8.6, and -8.8 respectively. So double the negative impact on opponent offenses as Redick.

So Redick does appear to be having the best defensive season of his career as you said, but how much of that comes from playing with Paul, Griffin, and Jordan? Well who knows because there is no stat that effectively measures an individual's contributions to team defense. There are just ok stats and bad stats when it comes to measuring this area of the game imo.

I'm sure I can agree that he's a better defender than Korver though, but he also gets less rebounds, less assists and less steals. So I dunno, I really don't see how he's an 80+ player. He's good at what he does, but just too one dimensional to be worth such a big increase.

[Walt Frazier]

OK, just for fun.

O-Aware is a 92. I don't think it'd be responsible to go much higher there.
FG is at an 82. He's a well-above average shooter. I'd maybe want to do more research, but I could see 5 points here.
3PT at an 85. He's absolutely killing it the last 3 seasons over 43%. He shot 47.5% last year. over 44% this year. I'd give him a 99 so there's 14 points, effectively one rating point increase right there.
FT could take 4 points or so.

He could actually take a 15-20 point boost on Inside Scoring. He's 69.2% inside this year, though he's very rarely in there. I dunno, maybe 10-12 tops actually.

That being said, his Pass rating of 75 is way high for his 1 apg. He'd need to be a 50 or lower. Huge killer there.
Handle at 80 is very high, comparably, to the rest of the ratings we've processed. Would want to take some off there.

DAware at 53 could come up some, maybe 10-20 at the most. Probably about 15, take him to a 68.
Steal and Block are rated correctly as of now.
OReb and DReb could both come down 10 points, he does nothing there.

Speed and Quick are at 87...could keep them there I guess. His Stamina is at an 89, which is pretty high in comparison. Maybe should be 5 off there.
Could give some points to Jump, maybe as much as 20.

Unfortunately, his Injury is set at 85 so that needs to come down to 70 to be in line. That's a full rating point off.

So, looking at all his stats...math...math....math

Comes to 3 point increase. Lol. I could go a little generous here and there and support a 1 point OVR jump. I think he kind of feels like a 77 or 78, honestly can't decide.

My vote, 77.5

[Brian Scalabrine]

Dec 12, 2016 1:35:16 GMT Alex English said:

Those stats are interesting, but it doesn't really give context. I'm sure I've had this argument with you and/or James Kay before, but +/- stats don't always do the best job of showing the individual contributions of a player when they're just one of ten players on the court at any given time. They're tricky things to give consistent and reliable measurements since they don't account for who you're playing with, and who you're playing against. Substitution patterns play a huge role on any kind of +/- or on/off statistic.

But to try and add some context, we can look at the entire Clippers on/off stats page:
www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAC/2017/on-off/

So Redick has a net -4.3 rating in the effect of opponent offenses when he's on the court. That's cool and all, but Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin are all having a much stronger effect. They have net ratings of -8.2, -8.6, and -8.8 respectively. So double the negative impact on opponent offenses as Redick.

So Redick does appear to be having the best defensive season of his career as you said, but how much of that comes from playing with Paul, Griffin, and Jordan? Well who knows because there is no stat that effectively measures an individual's contributions to team defense. There are just ok stats and bad stats when it comes to measuring this area of the game imo.

I'm sure I can agree that he's a better defender than Korver though, but he also gets less rebounds, less assists and less steals. So I dunno, I really don't see how he's an 80+ player. He's good at what he does, but just too one dimensional to be worth such a big increase.



I agree it should be taken in context which is why sample size it so important. Sample size seems to show Redick is one of the best defenders on the clippers or at least really good. 

Looking at the plus minus stats of the last year clippers Redick actually had the highest, outside of Luc Richard AMboute who only played 20 games, Defensive Plus Minus on the whole team! The Highest Defensive rating of a team in no fluke, especially not with that many minutes. I think it combined with the other stats such as Opp FG% which is awesome for him, proves that he is a good defender. Individually these stats can have a bit of noice but when so many of them are showing that he is a good defender and he is known by many in the media as being a good defender and I've watched him and would personally rate him well, I think its more certain. 

I would also argue he's one dimensional on offense because that's what the clippers IRL need. He'd be able to handle and has shown the ability and has on occasion handled a much bigger role like when Blake was out last year. 

[James Kay]

80

[Hanamichi Sakuragi]

Dec 12, 2016 3:23:06 GMT Walt Frazier said:

OK, just for fun.

O-Aware is a 92. I don't think it'd be responsible to go much higher there.
FG is at an 82. He's a well-above average shooter. I'd maybe want to do more research, but I could see 5 points here.
3PT at an 85. He's absolutely killing it the last 3 seasons over 43%. He shot 47.5% last year. over 44% this year. I'd give him a 99 so there's 14 points, effectively one rating point increase right there.
FT could take 4 points or so.

He could actually take a 15-20 point boost on Inside Scoring. He's 69.2% inside this year, though he's very rarely in there. I dunno, maybe 10-12 tops actually.

That being said, his Pass rating of 75 is way high for his 1 apg. He'd need to be a 50 or lower. Huge killer there.
Handle at 80 is very high, comparably, to the rest of the ratings we've processed. Would want to take some off there.

DAware at 53 could come up some, maybe 10-20 at the most. Probably about 15, take him to a 68.
Steal and Block are rated correctly as of now.
OReb and DReb could both come down 10 points, he does nothing there.

Speed and Quick are at 87...could keep them there I guess. His Stamina is at an 89, which is pretty high in comparison. Maybe should be 5 off there.
Could give some points to Jump, maybe as much as 20.

Unfortunately, his Injury is set at 85 so that needs to come down to 70 to be in line. That's a full rating point off.

So, looking at all his stats...math...math....math

Comes to 3 point increase. Lol. I could go a little generous here and there and support a 1 point OVR jump. I think he kind of feels like a 77 or 78, honestly can't decide.

My vote, 77.5

Thanks. 77.

[Jeremiah Hill]

77 same thing we did with Korver except he's not doing it as good as Korver did.

[Andrei Kirilenko]

77 no change