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Post by Ian Noble on Dec 12, 2015 18:31:36 GMT
2015 Rookie RatingsBelow are the official D5 rookie ratings for the draft class of 2015. These ratings are subject to change once Walt Frazier and the ratings committee have properly reviewed rookies. These ratings were decided a few months ago, before the season began, so obviously there'll be some changes to guys like Kristaps Porzingis who has exceeded expectations. 76 Karl-Anthony Towns 74 D'Angelo Russell 77 Jahlil Okafor 72 Justise Winslow 74 Emmanuel Mudiay 73 Kristaps Porzingis 69 Mario Hezonja 72 Stanley Johnson 69 Jerian Grant 73 Willie Cauley-Stein 72 Frank Kaminsky 71 Myles Turner 68 Kelly Oubre 70 Trey Lyles 68 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 67 Sam Dekker 65 Cameron Payne 66 Justin Anderson 69 Devin Booker 68 Bobby Portis 67 R. J. Hunter 67 Delon Wright 63 Rashad Vaughn 69 Tyus Jones 69 Terry Rozier 68 Montrezl Harrell 63 Kevon Looney 62 Cliff Alexander 67 Chris McCullough 64 Nikola Milutinov 66 Jordan Mickey
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Dec 12, 2015 19:29:55 GMT
I like the idea, start low and then raise the onese who have proven something and leave the others as projects.
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Post by Walt Frazier on Dec 13, 2015 2:43:41 GMT
I like the idea, start low and then raise the onese who have proven something and leave the others as projects. That is the exact idea. I think it's going to be the most fair way. And we can even bump the rookies up slightly faster. Yes, their sample size may be smaller but that's the best evidence we have for them - their NBA numbers. The ratings Ian posted are going to be close. I think I'm also going to go with a somewhat strict rating system based on draft position, so it may look at little more basic but it takes personal preference out of the equation. And since we start them lower, we can adjust the good ones up more quickly and leave the ones who haven't proven enough yet at a lower spot, and they won't affect the game unjustly when they haven't proven enough at the NBA level yet. |
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Post by Walt Frazier on Dec 13, 2015 3:09:31 GMT
So, this is my generic scale that, yes, is kind of boring, but it basically removes any subjectivity other than the Top few players, which we will collaborate on in the Rating Committee Staff area.
This is based on Real Life (not D5) Draft Position.
Picks 1-5: 74+ (rated specifically by us...depends on the year and the players.)
Picks 6-10: 73
Picks 11-14: 72
Picks 15-18: 71
Picks 19-22: 70
Picks 22-25: 69
Picks 26-29: 68
Picks 30-33: 67
Picks 34-37: 66
Picks 38-41: 65
Picks 42-45: 64
Picks 46-50: 63
Picks 51-60: 62
Undrafted: 62
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Post by Walt Frazier on Dec 13, 2015 3:15:36 GMT
And yes, we'll be very ready and willing to bump up guys like Porzingis. I think he's at a 73 or 74.
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Post by Ian Noble on Dec 13, 2015 10:11:00 GMT
I myself don't like prescribed scales of any kind when it comes to player ratings, but the thing I like about choosing our rookie ratings is that they will be adjusted quickly if/when they prove themselves in the league, so I'm good with it.
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Post by Walt Frazier on Dec 13, 2015 13:45:37 GMT
I myself don't like prescribed scales of any kind when it comes to player ratings, but the thing I like about choosing our rookie ratings is that they will be adjusted quickly if/when they prove themselves in the league, so I'm good with it. I honestly don't like parts of it either but at least this is always unbiased on our part, and as you said we can adjust quickly. |
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Post by Hanamichi Sakuragi on Dec 13, 2015 15:12:04 GMT
So, this is my generic scale that, yes, is kind of boring, but it basically removes any subjectivity other than the Top few players, which we will collaborate on in the Rating Committee Staff area. This is based on Real Life (not D5) Draft Position. Picks 1-5: 74+ (rated specifically by us...depends on the year and the players.) Picks 6-10: 73 Picks 11-14: 72 Picks 15-18: 71 Picks 19-22: 70 Picks 22-25: 69 Picks 26-29: 68 Picks 30-33: 67 Picks 34-37: 66 Picks 38-41: 65 Picks 42-45: 64 Picks 46-50: 63 Picks 51-60: 62 Undrafted: 62 Maybe, its better if RCs have more say on it. Maybe the scale should not be applicable to the top 14 picks. Just an example, WCS is not a 73 and is not playing like a 73. Personally, I trust the RCs. I believe you will not give effort on it if you will only do something fishy. Just my two cents. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2015 16:23:05 GMT
I myself don't like prescribed scales of any kind when it comes to player ratings, but the thing I like about choosing our rookie ratings is that they will be adjusted quickly if/when they prove themselves in the league, so I'm good with it. I honestly don't like parts of it either but at least this is always unbiased on our part, and as you said we can adjust quickly. I think there has been little to no complaining about bias in rookie ratings -- even last year. Ratings are changed often enough that the initial one matters very little. The only place where bias seems to be able to strike a nerve in a league such as this, is during offseason FA. |
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Post by Walt Frazier on Dec 13, 2015 20:57:11 GMT
Talking more about just, personal preference type of Bias. Nothing like "rating my own player higher" type of bias.
Ian, Alex, myself, and 3 others could do our own set of ratings and while we might agree on some, I bet we disagree by a couple of points on a lot of others. I could even tell you specifics on Ian's fleshed out list up above where I disagree by a lot.
But the thing is, none of us REALLY know, even the teams drafting them IRL don't really know. So, we use a plain rating system that is also low, so we can bump them up when they prove themselves.
It just seemed the least of any "evil" out of all of the options to me.
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Post by Walt Frazier on Dec 16, 2015 0:52:32 GMT
2015 Rookie Ratings
We have officially reviewed and updated the Rookie Ratings. At this time, you may put people up for increase/decrease. Pretty unlikely to decrease just yet but if they've proven they deserve an increase, go ahead and post a thread.
77 Karl-Anthony Towns
77 D'Angelo Russell
76 Jahlil Okafor
74 Kristaps Porzingis
74 Mario Hezonja
73 Justise Winslow
73 Emmanuel Mudiay
73 Stanley Johnson
73 Willie Cauley-Stein
73 Frank Kaminsky
72 Myles Turner
72 Cameron Payne
72 Devin Booker
72 Trey Lyles
71 Kelly Oubre
71 Sam Dekker
71 Rashad Vaughn
71 Terry Rozier
70 Jerian Grant
70 Justin Anderson
70 Bobby Portis
70 Delon Wright
69 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
69 Tyus Jones
68 R. J. Hunter
68 Chris McCullough
68 Nikola Milutinov
67 Jordan Mickey
67 Montrezl Harrell
67 Kevon Looney
62 Cliff Alexander
EDIT: I re-ordered the list based on ratings. It isn't the exact Real-Life Draft order but it's by grouping now instead of by D5 Draft order, which is what Ian had posted before.
Scale is above this post. Only leeway was in the Top 5 picks, but even that was kind of cookie-cutter for now. Main goal was to finish them, get their "template" correct, and keep them low so we can boost when appropriate.
Enjoy :-)
(Working on Nance Jr. still and I still want to create Kyle O'Quinn, he was a late addition to the new players thing, just never got him done).
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Post by James Kay on Dec 16, 2015 4:33:08 GMT
Whoa, how is Russell a 77?!
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Post by Walt Frazier on Dec 16, 2015 4:41:02 GMT
Whoa, how is Russell a 77?! Been explained a couple of times. Top 5 picks are "74+". That's part 1. Part 2 - We decided on these ratings before the season. Part 3 - For a Rookie he's had some pretty nice moments. And even as a "disappointment" in his first 24 games, he's putting up 12 points, 4+ rebounds, 3+ assists, 1+ steal, 1.5 3's at 32.5% (solid), 75% FT. That's a decent all-around game. But really, biggest part is Part 2, he was extremely highly thought of coming out of college, at least in some circles. Guards are also a little higher rated than big men. I could actually go on a bit with more reasons, but it's never going to be perfect when rating based on college play and stats. I think he might be better at a 76 or 75 but I don't think a 77 is far out of line. |
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Post by Walt Frazier on Dec 16, 2015 14:55:03 GMT
Whoa, how is Russell a 77?! Above all, remember that if this was last year, Russell could have been a 78, 79, 80 or 81. So, we are working on it! haha |
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Post by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar on Dec 16, 2015 22:15:19 GMT
Whoa, how is Russell a 77?! Above all, remember that if this was last year, Russell could have been a 78, 79, 80 or 81. So, we are working on it! haha Put him in 81 now and later we'll lower in down. Hahahahaha ^^ |
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Post by Sam Bowie on Dec 16, 2015 23:35:52 GMT
74 Kristaps Porzingis
74 Mario Hezonja
Stopped reading after that.
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Post by Walt Frazier on Dec 17, 2015 3:09:47 GMT
74 Kristaps Porzingis 74 Mario Hezonja Stopped reading after that. Then you missed the part about how we made these based on after the draft and where they were drafted? And the part where I specifically point to Porzingis and say we should get his increase going? Cool, always ignore content and make your decisions prematurely on limited data collection. :-p |
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Post by Sam Bowie on Dec 17, 2015 5:52:04 GMT
Still, not a fan.  I mean, Hanamichi has Porzingis as 8th-9th man right now. If Porzinglis wins ROY in real life and doesn't make 1st-rookie team in here it would not be realistic. Then again, I am Meh about the rookie ratings. Just think we could make some sort of voting (like dynasty5ive.proboards.com/thread/6552/1st-round-2015-rookie-ratings) next season (1 month after nba season tip-off) for +/- 2 overall point changes or so that would last for a week. D5 tip-off was 1 month and half after nba tip-off leaving 1 week after the hyphotetic voting to make changes. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 17, 2015 6:12:29 GMT
Still, not a fan. I mean, Hanamichi has Porzingis as 8th-9th man right now. If Porzinglis wins ROY in real life and doesn't make 1st-rookie team in here it would not be realistic. Then again, I am Meh about the rookie ratings. Just think we could make some sort of voting (like dynasty5ive.proboards.com/thread/6552/1st-round-2015-rookie-ratings) next season (1 month after nba season tip-off) for +/- 2 overall point changes or so that would last for a week. D5 tip-off was 1 month and half after nba tip-off leaving 1 week after the hyphotetic voting to make changes. I agree players in contention for ROY need to be raised so that they can have the same shot here in D5! Maybe wait a little more though... we could do the rating changes around december 15th in sim time and the rookies would still end up with pretty good stats and we would be more sure because we'd have half the season under our belt irl |
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Dec 18, 2015 3:58:34 GMT
It also depends on your team structure. Like Walt's rookie will do worse in the sim because he is on a better team.
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Post by Ian Noble on Dec 19, 2015 10:55:32 GMT
It also depends on your team structure. Like Walt's rookie will do worse in the sim because he is on a better team. If KAT doesn't win ROTY this year it will be a miracle (and/or because of a freak injury). |
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Post by Hanamichi Sakuragi on Dec 20, 2015 0:07:39 GMT
It also depends on your team structure. Like Walt's rookie will do worse in the sim because he is on a better team. If KAT doesn't win ROTY this year it will be a miracle (and/or because of a freak injury). Tell that to the 19 points in 21 minutes of Porzingaawwd!! |
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Post by Charles Barkley on Dec 26, 2015 5:16:12 GMT
You all are in here talking about bias regarding the Rookie Ratings. Well, I have news for you, they are biased, extremely biased. And here's why...
When it comes to rating the rookies, what do we have to go off of? We don't have credible NBA data. All we have are their college stats, and that isn't pro-level competition. A player's PPG can be hugely inflated, and often times they are, because of the competition they face. Some college teams don't have legit centers. And when I say legit, I mean they are playing guys who are 6'8 at center out of desperation. Rebounds become inflated. The quality of competition makes steals become inflated, the talent, or lack there of, of a player's teammates makes assists fluctuate.
So, at the end of the day, all we have to go off of are these jacked up stats, measurables, and basketball bloggers calling KAT the next great thing.
And we some how have to boil all of that down in to a rating. And if we all ranked the players in the past draft from best to worst, no one person would have the same list as the next. And no one person would have the same top 10 list as the next. We all feel strongly and differently about players.
So, yes, bias comes in to play. Walt may like Okafor better than KAT. Ian may like Mario over Russell. Alex may like Winslow over Mudiay.
But it isn't like these guys are rated drastically different than one another. We don't have Mario at a 90 and KAT at a 70.
When you learn that the number next to a guys name means nothing, then you will understand things. What is most important about the rookie ratings, and I said this last year till I was blue in the face and my fingers had blisters, is that they are built properly. We don't need want Russell out there with insane rebounding and KAT with crazy 3PT ability. That is not what we want.
What we want is a proper template for which to improve upon down the road for these rookies.
So quit bitching about bias. Everything in life has some form of bias or another. Even if we were completely unbiased in the rookie rating process, there would still be bias in it from the Draft Xpress guys or NBA GMs and where they pick the players. Bias can never be eliminated from the process. Whether it be the Rookie Rating scale, or regular Stock Watch shit. The Bias will always be there, despite Len snorting the coke.
Oh, and while ya'll are screaming about rating bias, you're missing the more important things.
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Post by Sam Bowie on Dec 30, 2015 22:50:50 GMT
Charles, nice post but it is out of context. Point is we had enough NBA information to adjust rookies. At least, +/- 2 points adjustments.
Since Magic has no rookies, it is not really my business even though I want Porzingis to have a real rating in order for James to eat his shoe. With that said, I am arguing because I think we can do better next time. Maybe, we can do what we did with -/- 2 points that GMs can vote on for a week or so.
Also, I understand that ratings are going to be updated eventually but that usually takes a month or more to happen. It is fine if you don't agree with me though. It is just my point of view. I probably wouldn´t even be making this post if it wasn't for that damn shoe, hahaha.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2015 23:09:22 GMT
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Jan 8, 2016 13:06:01 GMT
The rookie ratings have been great this season. We haven't had to adjust more than what, like 3 guys.
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Post by Walt Frazier on Jan 8, 2016 13:37:59 GMT
The rookie ratings have been great this season. We haven't had to adjust more than what, like 3 guys. And, I believe, they've all been increases. Which makes more sense. |
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Boston Celtics
Minnesota Timberwolves
Cleveland Cavaliers
Charlotte Hornets
Washington Wizards
I mean, Hanamichi has Porzingis as 8th-9th man right now. If Porzinglis wins ROY in real life and doesn't make 1st-rookie team in here it would not be realistic. Then again, I am Meh about the rookie ratings.
