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Post by Charles Barkley on Jul 26, 2014 14:31:57 GMT
Here is my SG speadsheet: www.filedropper.com/d5sgThere are ~5 or so top SG's in the league right now, then some defined mediocrity, then very little relation to our ratings to production. Included about 40 SG's, tried to get one from nearly all of our teams, and tried to include the starting SG from each team. My initial reaction was that SG is a pretty piss poor position right now, with very few elite guys. There could be a few reasons for this, but I believe it is mainly due to the development of the SF crop and the blurred line of SG/PG with the new combo guard style. I am sure some guys are not listed that probably should be, please let me know and I will update accordingly. There are also a lot of guy who have been out of the league a bit that could be removed, i.e. DeShawn Stevenson, Michael Redd. I'll have the google.doc uploaded later and probably the PG and SF group up later today. Will post more thorough thoughts and feelings about this later. Enjoy! |
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Post by Charles Barkley on Jul 27, 2014 6:18:55 GMT
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Jul 28, 2014 22:18:24 GMT
There should be maybe 1-3 guys even above an 85 at the SG position. Maybe 7-8 guys in the 80-84 range. I'm gonna look at them a little more when I get home.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Jul 28, 2014 22:47:11 GMT
Having looked at the data here are some first thoughts on what's going on here:
-We have to lower Kobe (93 OVR, 10PER), I'm sorry we just do if we want this league to keep being able to try and say we base ratings off of real life. We can put him up as the first to be reranked after the first month if you want.
-When D Wade is actually playing he's still one of the best SG's in the league which kind of surprised me as I've been kind of a D Wade is a grandpa person for a while now.
-Same with Ginobili
-James Harden
, DeMar DeRozan
, Goran Dragic
, D Wade are the only four guys who I consider to be worthy of a rating over 85.
Harden for offense only, DeMar for both and athleticism, Goran for mostly offense and speed with decent defense, D wade just needs his vertical and a few defensive things lowered just a smidge then the main downside of having him will be his injuries.
-Guys who might be rated too low: Dion Waiters, Tim Hardaway Jr., Gerald Henderson, Monta Ellis, CJ Miles
-Guys who are right where I think they should be: Joe Johnson, Lance Stephenson, Klay Thompson, Bradley Beal
-Guys who might be rated too high: Iman Shumpert
, Thabo Sefolosha
, Brandon Rush
, Louis Williams, Ray Allen, OJ Mayo
Unlike the showings for the big men there are 0 egregiously underrated SGs because there are so few great SGs. There is a top 4 as opposed to a top 10-12 like with big men.
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Post by Charles Barkley on Jul 29, 2014 2:06:57 GMT
This is all just my opinion.
When you take a look at the ratings and then take a look at their production, there are some discrepancies.
Dragic played a lot better than an 84. You can make an argument that he was the best SG in the league this season. Dragic and Harden are both at the top, and they both do different things for their teams.
If we take these two, Dragic and Harden, and have them as a baseline for the best SG's in the league, we then can begin to rate the second tier SGs.
Second Tier SGs: This would be somewhere between an 86 and an 84 rating. DeMar, Lance, Monta, Klay, and Wade.
Really, all of these guys come in at around an 84 production wise. They all were called upon to do different things for their teams, and did those things well. Lance had to be the second option, sometimes 3rd, behind PG and West. DeMar had to carry the Raptors; his overall FG% and eFG% are killed by his 3PT %. If DeMar shot 38% from the three, he'd be up in the top of the second tier. Monta pretty much is in the same boat as Lance, a good second option. Monta and Lance have a similar make-up in secondary stats (REB, AST, STL, BLK). Monta had more assists and more steals, while Lance came ahead in boards but not so far behind in assists. But Lance came in far behind in points. Wade was Wade, but for only 53 games at 33 minutes a night. Monta had the same stats as Wade, or nearly the same, but for all 82 games and 37 minutes a night.
Klay is a different beast, he shoots the 3 and does it at an elite level. He also had a very high FG%, and got a decent amount of boards and steals. Klay could also be in the 3rd tier range, but because he does some things at an elite level, he deserves to be in here.
Third Tier SGs: Some of these guys will be disagreed upon. Others can be argued that they are better, and they would be better if they had more minutes (Manu). These guys are my 83-81 range. Joe Johnson, JR Smith, Manu, Afflalo, Eric Gordon, Kevin Martin, Bradley Beal.
Manu gets 23 minutes a night, he could probably play around 30 a night, and he does in big games. His stats suffer because of the minutes, BUT BECAUSE HE COULD PLAY 30 a night, he is in this tier. JR Smith is JR Smith, he isn't bad, and he isn't good, he's just ok. Shoots at a high rate from 3, a second option. Shoots 6.5 3's a night and is at 39% means he is worth his 82 rating. Manu should probably be an 83, but at an 81, he still fits in this tier. We have all heard the argument for Joe Johnson, he didn't play like an 83, and he probably shouldn't be an 83, but that isn't up to me, its up to everyone else. Afflalo did his thing this year, he didn't do anything great, but shot 4 3's a night at a 42% clip while putting up 3.5 boards and assists a night, deserves his new 81 rating. Eric Gordon is another high volume shooter, so his FG% suffered, but his 3PT% was extremely good, 4 3's at 39% and his TS% and eFG% weren't bad. Kevin Martin is what he is, a spot up 3 man and has been throughout his career and he has always done it very well.
Bradley Beal is a smaller beast that Klay is, definitely big things in his future just like Klay, but for now, he resides in this tier.
Now the tiers get interesting.
The "All Defense Tier": None of these guys are rated an 80 but they all could be pushed there with a good argument about their defense, some have offensive skills and those are the ones that would make the best argument. Jimmy Butler, Victor Oladipo, Wesley Matthews, Tony Allen, Sefolosha, Shumpert, Gerald Henderson
Both Tony Allen and Sefolosha probably aren't going anywhere offense wise, they are what they are. They can be rated whatever, but their defensive attributes need to be high, because they played good defense for their teams. They may get decreases but I feel they are rated appropriately especially if their defensive attributes are high. Henderson is another guy playing on a good defensive team, is probably accurately rated.
Surprisingly Shumpert is in this tier. Not many think of him for his defense, but it was actually very good playing on a mediocre New York Knicks defense. His future is bright and his defense is good. Jimmy Butler's defensive can be questioned. Is he an elite defender or is he just on an elite defensive team? We will find out this season just how well his offense is this season, provided Rose is Rose. But Butler could use an increase to the Shumpert level, based on defense alone.
Wesley Matthews is the Jimmy Butler of Portland if Jimmy Butler played with a scoring guard and a Batum level SF. Both Hinrich and Augustin are not Rose, and Dunleavy isn't anywhere close to the player Batum is. Matthews sits fine at a 79 but he is older than most think and he will probably peak these next two years at around an 83.
Victor Oladipo is another young beast. Is he the offensive "juggernauts" Klay and Beal are? No way. But he had the 2nd highest STL% while posting a respectable number in AST% because he played out of position a bit.
IMO, both Butler and Dipo can use an increase to the 78 range, Oladipo's and Butler's make or break seasons are this year.
The Young Scoring Guard Tier: Dion Waiters, Danny Green, Avery Bradley, Alec Burks, OJ Mayo
Dion's future is bright, could use an increase from a 76, but not to the 80's. Danny Green is what he is: a Spur, take it as what you will. Could also use an increase of about 2 points IMO. Avery and Alec are going to break out this season, Rondo will be out and the Jazz will soon realize Trey Burke doesn't fit with Exum and that Alec Burks gets to the rim at a near elite level. OJ Mayo may look out of place here, but he isn't old enough for the next category. OJ Mayo was hyped, and now he just seems like a lazy out of shape 2 guard who's spot in the rotation is dieing. Could probably come down some, but time will tell in this next season. TBC
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Post by Charles Barkley on Jul 29, 2014 2:17:03 GMT
The "In Their Prime, Topping Out Guards": Gerald Green, Jodie Meeks, Brandon Rush
Rush needs lowered, without a doubt. Gerald Green had a good season and could use a bump but not to an 80. Jodie Meeks also needs a bumped, played very well this past season, and SVG likes him so he could be on the rise next season.
The "Slowly Fading But Still Does One Thing Good": Ray Allen, JJ Redick
Ray Allen isn't an 80, the argument against him are his PER 36 numbers, the only problem is he can't play 36 minutes a night, he still shoots it well you'd think, but it was at a 37.5% clip on 4 three's a night. Nerf him to a JJ Redick level? Well, JJ shot the 3 better and shot a better FG%. It's time to put Jesus Shuttlesworth in his place, please.
The "Young, You Think They're Underrated Guards": Tim Hardaway Jr, Jeremy Lamb
They haven't shown a lot, they shouldn't be rated any higher until they do. And I don't understand how anyone voted that Hardaway should be a 74, seriously? 8.5 PPG, 1.5 AST, 2.4 Boards, 0.7 Steals, 35% from 3, 43% from the field. There isn't any reason to raise him until he shows us something, which may be soon, same with Lamb.
The "I Really Don't Know Why They Are This High" Tier: CJ Miles, Randy Foye, Jordan Crawford, Marcus Thornton, Rodney Stuckey, Louis Williams, and I guess Brandon Rush could be in this tier as well.
Seriously guys, look at the stats provided, use your brain, you're all smart enough to see it.
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