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Post by Walt Frazier on Apr 1, 2014 5:06:08 GMT
Current Rating: 76
This is a guy who peaked in 2011-12 with Memphis. In 60 games he played 22mpg, scored 8.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, and shot 45.3%.
He did fairly similarly in 18 mpg in 2012-13 with the Cavs (after a trade and with the team doing nothing)
The rest of his 2012-13 and his 2013-14 season, he was at 14 mpg and then 11 mpg this season. He now scores maybe 6 points, 3 rebounds, and his FG% is down to 43%
I wouldn't drop him a crazy amount to where he's useless, b/c he's still fairly young, but he basically has 1.5 good years under his belt, and has shown some promise but actually a lot of diminished returns overall. I can go into it further if people don't want to bother looking at his career stats. He broke into the league his rookie season in 16 mpg, shot 50.2% and had 7.7 points and 3.7 rebounds. Now, 5 years later, in his 11 mpg, he shoots 43.3%, has 5.9 points, and 3.3 rebounds. He hasn't progressed at all and arguably has regressed quite a bit looking at his FG%
There are NBA starters who make real impacts on the game getting a 76 rating. Speights plays 11 mpg and has a minimal impact.
Suggested Rating: 73
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Apr 1, 2014 13:28:46 GMT
74
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Post by Walt Frazier on Apr 2, 2014 2:50:20 GMT
Bump
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Post by Shane Battier on Apr 2, 2014 3:08:21 GMT
74 as well
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Post by Alex English on Apr 2, 2014 3:09:42 GMT
Speights absolutely does not deserve a decrease. He is just buried on a really good and deep Warriors team and so he plays just 11 minutes per game. His per 36 stats this year are 18.4ppg, 10.4rpg and 1.4bpg. That isn't just a quirk of his low playing time either. His per 36 stats for his entire career are 17.2ppg, 9.7rpg, and 1.2bpg.
He has played more than 20 minutes in just five games, but in those five games he is averaging 15.8ppg, 7.4rpg, and 1.6bpg in 23mpg. Those numbers are insanely good and include a 32 point, 8 rebound, and 3 block game in 26 minutes played.
A 76 rating puts him as being a competent back up, which is what he is at a bare minimum. He is a lot better than that though imo. If he was given starters minutes he would have a huge breakout year and be a gimme for an 80+ rating.
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Post by Mike Krzyzewski on Apr 2, 2014 3:10:29 GMT
74
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Post by Alex English on Apr 2, 2014 3:20:27 GMT
Per 36 stats is literally the worst statistic you can measure a player by. Besides, you gave Speights an awful contract and that's your own fault. Per 36 stats are the only way to adjust for playing time. They are usually stable throughout most of a players career while raw stats obviously fluctuate wildly based on playing time. Omer Asik's career per 36 rpg number are: 2010-11: 11.1 2011-12: 13.0 2012-13: 14.0 2013-14: 12.4 His raw rpg numbers are: 2010-11: 3.7 2011-12: 5.3 2012-13: 11.7 2013-14: 6.3 You don't know what you are talking about billy. |
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Post by Walt Frazier on Apr 2, 2014 3:34:39 GMT
To chime in, I think you're both right and both wrong haha.
Per 36 are certainly not the "worst way to evaluate a player" or whatever Billy said, but they do have limitations as Billy just correctly pointed out. They are certainly useful IMO but it should not always be ignored that for one reason or another, a player has only earned 10-15 minutes per game.
Sometimes it is simply that they are buried, but if their team had faith in them, why did they bury them on the depth chart? I'm not saying that applies directly to Marreese or not but when a guy is in his 5th season and is only earning 11 minutes per game, that tells me something.
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Post by Alex English on Apr 2, 2014 3:40:00 GMT
Per 36 stats are useless because players playing around 10MPG, in this case 11.5, come in to the game and do their job and are fresh. Fatigue, subtle injuries, and team chemistry are not accounted for. Explaining something to you is harder than teaching a 5 year old how to drive a stick shift, I swear. You let your ego get ahead of you sometimes bud. There isn't a stat in the world that takes into account "fatigue, subtle injuries, and team chemistry." You should invent one. You will be offered a job for every professional team in the world. No one has a bigger ego than you do billy... |
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Post by Alex English on Apr 2, 2014 3:51:37 GMT
You can't even make your own argument. You take what someone else says and twist it around. What are you talking about? Who's argument did I take? How did I twist it around? Although there is no statistic that takes into account fatigue, subtle injuries, and team chemistry, PER is a much better statistic than per 36. Let's look at some PER ratings then. Speights PER this season is 15.6. That very respectable and easily worthy of a 76, which is a very average rating. Speights career PER rating is 16.4. That's higher than Danilo Gallinari's career PER rating of 15.7. |
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Post by Alex English on Apr 2, 2014 4:55:33 GMT
Ugh, arguing with a fifteen year old...If I mention egos, you one up it, if I mention this or that, you'll use the same words but one up it. It's a refined junior high school argument tactic. Explaining something to you is harder than teaching a 5 year old how to drive a stick shift, I swear. You let your ego get ahead of you sometimes bud. You can't even make your own argument. You take what someone else says and twist it around. Per 36 stats is literally the worst statistic you can measure a player by. Besides, you gave Speights an awful contract and that's your own fault. Ok. I have responded in kind and I shouldn't have. I apologize for that. Can you drop the condescending attitude though? We are talking about fantasy basketball. There is no reason for us to be disrespectful. Your comparing apples to oranges here as well. Speights is a post-player and relies on his large frame and size to battle inside and get inside shots. Gallinari, on the other hand, relies mostly on his jump shot. Of course Speights is going to be more efficient via the PER statistic. The PER statistic works best when comparing players of similar position (wings with wings, post players with post players, etc) Take Chandler Parsons, Danilo Gallinari, and Nicolas Batum. All three have comparable PER numbers because they are all wing players even they have different skill sets and roles in their respective teams. An excellent comparison for Speights is Jordan Hill. Their careers have followed a very similar path. Career Stats: Jordan Hill - 16.0mpg, 6.4ppg, 5.1rpg, 0.7bpg, 16.1PER Marreese Speights - 15.6mpg, 7.4ppg, 4.2rpg, 0.5bpg, 16.4PER Per 36 Stats: Jordan Hill - 14.3ppg, 11.5rpg, 1.5bpg, 16.1PER Marreese Speights - 17.2ppg, 9.7rpg, 1.2bpg, 16.4PER Jordan Hill is currently being considered for a rating increase, which I think he deserves. The consensus seems to be in the 77-79 range for him, slightly above Speights current rating of 76. Again, I think this is just right. What doesn't make sense considering this is decreasing the rating for Speights. The only real difference between the two in my opinion is that Hill has the luxury of playing for a terrible Lakers team so he is finally getting some decent playing time. Speights on the other hand is playing for one of the top teams in the west and has a very deep squad to battle for playing time on with Andrew Bogut, David Lee, Jermaine O'Neal, Draymond Green, as well as himself. All of those guys deserve solid minutes but there is only so much floor time to go around. |
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Post by Alex English on Apr 2, 2014 5:13:22 GMT
Ah yes. A very fitting response. You stay classy billy...
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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Apr 2, 2014 12:06:21 GMT
76
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Apr 3, 2014 1:43:48 GMT
I just thought about it and did a bit of research I'm gonna say he should be like a 77-78
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Post by Walt Frazier on Apr 3, 2014 2:24:53 GMT
What in the holy fuck Jeremiah? And yet Favors is a 77 also from you? Conspiracy in this league or something.
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