2024 D5 Mock Draft Series
Feb 9, 2024 22:20:33 GMT
Allen Iverson, Mike Krzyzewski, and 7 more like this
Post by George Gervin on Feb 9, 2024 22:20:33 GMT
For the third consecutive year, the Mock Draft series is back! I will preface that this draft, frankly, compared to the last three years, is thin on high-upside talent. Many of this draft’s highest profile players would be borderline lottery picks in the 2023 cycle, and even in 2022 they’d probably be back half of the lottery selections. This draft could be a lot of fun for D5 GMs to really separate the GMs who can eye/evaluate talent versus those taking shots in the dark.
As it was for prior iterations, this first mock is the lottery selections only and I’ll do a full first round (and any teams with 2nd rounders who are without a first) after the D5 season is over. This iteration, like the last ones, is based on current standings and I make no assumptions on where teams are going to shake out – I don’t want any stray bullets from GMs mad they’re down this low.
Without further ado, the lottery mock awaits:
As it was for prior iterations, this first mock is the lottery selections only and I’ll do a full first round (and any teams with 2nd rounders who are without a first) after the D5 season is over. This iteration, like the last ones, is based on current standings and I make no assumptions on where teams are going to shake out – I don’t want any stray bullets from GMs mad they’re down this low.
Without further ado, the lottery mock awaits:
- Portland Trailblazers – Zaccharie Risacher, SF, JL Bourg (French League). Yeah, we are going to start off with a wild card at #1. The Blazers and Jerry West have one super blue chip in recently minted All-Star Tyrese Maxey, a rising young player in Josh Giddey going through the ebbs and flows of early career growth, and then after that the next best player (as far as long-term projections are concerned) is the tantalizing Cam Whitmore. Now, the Blazers here could go for a big man, of which Alex Sarr of France by way of Perth in the NBL is by the highest upside talent. However, at #1 and with the money involved, taking a player like Sarr may not be the best use of this selection. Taking his fellow countryman in Risacher might be higher risk, but with the potential for much greater reward. As an athletically fluid, young wing (will turn 19 shortly before the draft) with solid shooting (51% FG, 47% from 3 on a 44% 3PA rate) and good defensive showings, he profiles as a player who could greatly exceed his current play with more physical growth and expanding his on-ball creation opportunities. Portland needs to take a swing, and with many draft picks in the next few years, even at #1 they can shoot for the moon with other picks to ameliorate any crash they may suffer.
- Chicago Bulls – Cody Williams, SF, University of Colorado. Nope, no Sarr or Topic yet – yeah, not a huge fan of either one this high – so the Bulls and Shane Battier go for another big swing like the Blazers did at #1 for a wing. Williams, the younger brother of OKC’s budding sophomore star JDub, is much like his older brother as a shooter (57/48/73 splits), passer, and physically gifted (6’8” with a 7’3” wingspan as a 19-year-old) for the position. Based on his statistical output, physical profile, and family history alone, he is a safe bet to be a very solid to good NBA pro. The big glaring issues right now for Williams is he’s not built like the tank his brother is (just 185 LBs), and it shows in his rebounding and ability to get pushed around a bit too much. That said, time in a weight room should mitigate those concerns – but it may slow him down early in his NBA career. For the Bulls, outside of Tyler Herro and, when healthy, Wendell Carter Jr., there’s no starting NBA level player on this roster. They need to get some real juice on the wings, and this is a great starting point.
- Orlando Magic – Ja’Kobe Walter, SG, Baylor University. Alright, I’m going to go early here with Ja’Kobe because, like Keyonte George last year, I think there is way more here to like than the stats say. The shooting percentages are not great (except for FT%), and he doesn’t really show creation skills for others that you’d like out of a guard today. All that said, the dude can get to the rim and has one of the better FTA rates for a freshman. Despite that slight frame, he’s had multiple games of 6+ FTA (including three 10+ FTA ones) and even when his shot isn’t falling, he’s constantly getting into the paint. It is clear from the best players in today’s game how important rim pressure is, and Walter is showing a knack for getting downhill. Paired with Steve Nash's prior selections of Amen Thompson and Trey Murphy III, Walter could round out the perimeter core with another stellar wing option.
- Dallas Mavericks – Reed Sheppard, G, University of Kentucky. Full disclosure, I don’t know what Sheppard is at the NBA level – all the numbers scream elite two-way guard given his defensive soundness (2.4 SPG, nearly 1 BPG for a 6’3” Guard), elite shooting (53/54/79 splits with a 57% 3PA rate), and stat stuffing on the boards (4.3 RPG) and passing (4.2 APG). But…the size to me is a real issue, as he doesn’t seem particularly long for a guard, and he’s doing all of this for Kentucky as an older freshman (will be 20 by the end of the college season) so is this just a matter of him being more physically/emotionally mature than his cohorts than being a truly elite talent? I’m not sure, but Dallas and Danny Longley has lost Ja for the year (over something not related to play-a-gangster-today incident) and have two burgeoning young players in Jalen Johnson and Derrick Lively with Dyson Daniels starting to scratch the surface of his potential. Sheppard would give them two things – first, a potential backcourt partner for Morant and second, in the worst-case scenario, insurance for Morant in the event he either can’t stay healthy or ignore his urges to cosplay Tupac.
- Philadelphia 76ers – Nikola Topic, PG, Red Star (Serbian League). Finally, one of the presumptive top players has his slide halted at #5 to the Sixers. The Sixers and Allen Iverson's core is actually quite solid despite their record – Desmond Bane is a real star, Ausar Thompson has had a good rookie year for the woeful Pistons, Jeremy Sochan is doing his best trying to implement Pop’s “vision” for his future, and then you add in the Magic duo of Jalen Suggs and Goga Bitadze, new Mav PJ Washington, and you have the makings of a pretty interesting group. The problem is that none of those players is a true lead guard who can pass at an elite level – Suggs offense still hasn’t come along, and Bane is more of a true 2 guard than a PG. Topic can really pass with plus size (6’6”) making a great impact in Europe. His shooting overall and at the line portend good mechanics, but the 3 Point results (28%) do not bear it out. Without that spacing, he risks falling into the trap that Giddey is trying to avoid or that Ben Simmons suffers from where players will not guard him and inhibit his passing lanes. For the Sixers, they can afford to go a lot of directions – for them, Topic represents an intriguing bet on him figuring out the shooting while banking on his impressive passing skills for immediate returns.
- Miami Heat – Stephon Castle, G, University of Connecticut. Ah yes, the Heat and Shaquille O'Neal, who watched their 2023 1st become Victor Wembanyama and have one more first rounder out in the ether to the Pelicans next year before they can say they have full control over their draft future again. Their roster has one surefire star player in Brandon Ingram, a player on the rise in Jalen Duren, and then after that it is bleak. They don’t have much on the perimeter outside of Ingram to be inspired about, and in a draft like this where there are not clear delineations between tiers of prospects, going for a mix of need and BPA wins out here in the choice of Castle. While he may have gotten off to a slow start at UConn, he’s since really had a banner stretch for the top ranked Huskies as a double-digit scorer and all-around stat stuffer. Castle is a physical player for a guard, and it’s reflected in his rebounding (1.8 Offensive RPG which for a guard is substantial) and defense (nearly 2 STOCKS per game). The shooting leaves a lot to be desired, but as far as a template for a big guard is concerned, Castle has some of the highest upside in this draft. The Heat desperately needs a guard, and they go for broke with the sixth player 19 or younger in the top of the mock.
- New Orleans Pelicans – Alex Sarr, C, Perth (NBL). The slide of the guy I’m sure everyone expected at the top finally ends! Physically, on paper, there isn’t a player in this draft with greater upside than Sarr; plus size for a center at 7’1”, 7’6” wingspan, elite defensive traits as a paint defender and switchable player, which is what everyone wants in today’s NBA. However, we must talk about two glaring issues. The first is for his size, he is a shit rebounder. He is regularly muscled around and with his size he should be able to corral more than 5 RPG (though the D5 Pelicans and Brian Scalabrine seem to like rangy impactful bigs with Nets era Brook Lopez rebounding disease). To be a reliable anchor in the middle, he must improve his strength and positioning. The second is the offense is intriguing but rudimentary for a player pegged to be a top 3 selection. At best, he can be an elite rim runner in the Lively/Claxton mold but unlike either of those guys, he doesn’t exhibit the same level of feel offensively and passing chops. The Pelicans already have a Big 3 of Fox, Mitchell, and JJJ, with Devin Vassell and Miles “wife beater” Bridges as the next layer of talent. Adding Sarr would give them, if he pans out, another blue-chip piece but one who shouldn’t disrupt their Big 3 or Vassell.
- Washington Wizards – Ron Holland, G/F, G League Ignite. There are some immutable things in D5 – the inevitable deep playoff run from the Warriors, the turnover of the Kings roster seemingly every year, the Spurs tripping over their own feet on drafted talent being sent away too early – but Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's Wizards being a lottery team for the tenth straight year takes the cake. And yet, despite the presence of KAT, Scoot Henderson, Jaden Ivey, the Murray brothers, Christian Braun, and a seeming shift towards trying to win, the Wizards are here again. At this point, it is BPA for them given they’ve already got a lot of young guys and options. They could take a big like Donovan Clingan to hedge a KAT injury or exit, but that feels unnecessary when Holland is sitting here. The first non-college or international player drafted, but continuing the theme of young guy, Holland can get a bucket. At 6’8” 200 LBs, he’s averaging 19.5 PPG for the Ignite with 2.3 SPG to boot. While the Ignite cast has generally disappointed, Holland has at least shown up and is providing two-way effort. Where he will need to develop is playing actual defense (he does a lot of steals hunting but isn’t necessarily positionally defending well) and learning how to pass the ball (negative AST:TO ratio). The Wizards can’t get off this hamster wheel in the lottery, so they may as well take another swing at a prospect to see if they can pull themselves out.
- Orlando Magic (via SAC) – Ryan Dunn, F, University of Virginia. The first non-freshman has landed! The Magic and Steve Nash have two lottery picks thanks to a trade with the Pacers that netted this Kings pick, and at #3 they went for an upside pick in Walter from Baylor. At #9, they go for the player who likely has the easiest projection to an NBA role in Ryan Dunn from UVA. Defensively, Dunn is the best player in this draft on production; statistically, he is averaging 2.2 SPG, 1.6 BPG, and sporting a .133 DWS and 5.9 DBPM for a wing which is stellar. At 6’8”, 215 LBs, he uses his strength and length very aggressively and can operate as an excellent team and 1v1 defender. He has been favorably compared to Herb Jones, Vince Williams Jr., and Mikal Bridges as a defender that is just everywhere on the court and can anchor a wing unit. However, he is, undoubtedly, the most offensively inept of those four. While his FG% is great at 58%, he is shooting a ghastly 58% at the FT line and 24% from 3PT range. All those other elite defenders have become at the very least respectable shooters at the NBA level, and Dunn has a tremendous amount of work to do on his form to hope to provide any value on the offensive end. If he can do that, like what Herb Jones did, then this is an easy 3 and D, All Defense caliber wing. If he can’t shoot, then he’s maybe Andre Roberson or other wing archetypes that couldn’t cut it when it mattered on the court. For the Magic, Dunn could be good insurance for Pat Williams future extension if they don’t want to dole out significant cash to retain him.
- Milwaukee Bucks – Matas Buzelis, F, G League Ignite. At #10, the Bucks and Glenn Robinson are sitting pretty – they already have two-star level young guys in Scottie Barnes and Darius Garland, a third in Jabari Smith Jr. who is steadily improving, and then a host of other young guys (Quentin Grimes, Isaac Okoro, Nikola Jovic, Gradey Dick) who are fun options to watch develop and see if they become the fourth option in the fold. Buzelis on potential is intriguing – he’s huge with interesting skills as a bigger wing who can handle the ball well and seems to show solid basketball IQ on the court. That said, he’s been incredibly passive for the G League Ignite, his lack of strength is readily apparent, and he hasn’t shown the same level of progression that he did at lower levels when he was a top HS recruit. The Bucks don’t need this pick to necessarily pan out given they’ve got three guys already – but if Buzelis figures it out and hits his potential, there are few guys who can do what he does at his size.
- Atlanta Hawks (via LAC) – Justin Edwards, F, University of Kentucky. Alright, before anyone skewers me for this one, go research some of these prospects – this draft is bad after a certain point, and honestly the gap between the 7th or 8th prospects and the 35th one is not huge. With a pick here where Atlanta and Jay Z have a mega rookie in Wemby, they just need to grab for upside while they have picks in the lottery range cause that guy is going to keep them from being in this range for a long time with his play. Edwards, preseason, was a top 3 projected pick. His play in HS spoke for itself, as he was a top 5 recruit and has all the tools to be an elite wing. His play at Kentucky has been frankly pitiful; poor advanced measures, poor raw stats, and not a lot here that would tell you he was a top player in HS. Some of his output has been impacted by lingering issues suffered in the preseason practice circuit that he hasn’t fully shaken – but some of it is also a function of the explosion of other guys on the team, especially Reed Sheppard, supplanting him in the offensive priority. Kentucky prospects also need to account for the Calipari effect, where he likes to shove them into a role and many times, they have shown far more at the NBA level; the Hawks should bank on Edwards pedigree as a prospect over the output so far.
- Minnesota Timberwolves – Donovan Clingan, C, University of Connecticut. At #12 we have the TWolves and Walt Frazier, who have nailed two of their most recent lottery selections in Cade Cunningham and Jalen Williams and made a shrewd acquisition of Immanuel Quickley to give themselves three reliable young players going forward. Add to that group the encouraging, albeit raw, play of Bilal Coulibaly, and you have the outline of the future backcourt and wing starting group for this team. They have a huge hole at the 5, and it is fitting to slot in the biggest player in this draft in 7’3”, 285 LBs Donovan Clingan. The unsung hero of UConn’s title run last year, Clingan was the per minute offensive and defensive monster. He has continued that this year, as he’s averaging 12.6/6.5/2.3 STOCKs in just 20 MPG. He’s been incredibly impactful for the Huskies on both ends of the floor, and he shows real dexterity despite his size with the ball. All that said, he needs to get in better shape – it is worrisome that he can’t really go more than half a college game minutes wise – and it’s unclear if he is a big in a rotation or starter at the next level. The TWolves, though, don’t really have any big man to speak of, and Clingan at the very least figures to be an elite defensive big at the NBA level. That’s worth a late lottery pick in a draft devoid of the obvious stars like previous years.
- Denver Nuggets – Rob Dillingham, G, University of Kentucky. A third Wildcat in the lottery! The Nuggets and Alex English, like the Bucks, TWolves, and Pelicans above them in the lottery, already have their core dudes in place – Paolo Banchero is a newly minted All Star in his second year and looks incredible for the Magic, his teammate Franz Wagner had an amazing run in the FIBA World Cup for the German champs and has continued to improve in the NBA, and Brandon Miller (after a slow start recovering from injury) has looked like the best player on the Hornets with LaMelo in and out of the lineup. Add in Mark Williams at the 5, who was showing real skill before he went down with an injury, and you just need a lead guard to complete this starting group. Cason Wallace may eventually take that last spot, but he needs to show more statistical output to support being a fulltime starter. Grabbing a fellow Wildcat who is pumping out points as competition is not a bad option this late in the lottery. What Dillingham does well is shoot (44% on nearly 5 3s a game), pass (4.1 APG in just 24 MPG), and get his hands on a lot of passes defensively in Kentucky’s scheme. His aggressiveness as a defender has led to a fouls issue (nearly 3 per game in his 24 MPG) and he doesn’t really get the line at the rate he should given Kentucky’s drive and kick offensive scheme, but his ability to shoot with volume and reliability should give him a clear off-ball role in the NBA. The Nuggets likely have four of their five starting spots locked up, and maybe all five if Wallace continues to develop. However, you can never have enough options in-house to roll out for a starting five, and Dillingham offers the most intrigue this late in the lottery.
- Toronto Raptors – Ajay Mitchell, G, UC Santa Barbara. The Raptors and Bryan Colangelo are the last lottery selection, and after dealing Pascal and Beal away signaling the start of a rebuild, they go on the offensive to add talent. Likely by the end of the season, they’ll be higher up in the standings to grab someone with a bit more upside. That said, Mitchell is a sleeper candidate in this draft. A junior from Belgium, he’s been a solid three-year starter with a career 51/32/81 splits across 82 GP. He’s steadily improved his statistical output to a now stellar 19.6/4/3.9/1.5 STOCKs per game, with a career 60% TS for USCB. His playstyle is very old school, as he likes to get to the paint and mix it up with post moves and leverage his excellent footwork; while he doesn’t show the same power to his game, he plays much like Jalen Brunson did at Villanova where his footwork, brains, and technique got him where he needed to be on the court. Mitchell is on the older side (will be 22 by the start of the next NBA season), so there is less upside here than the players above who are mostly 18-19 years old. However, the Raptors need to start somewhere in their rebuild and if Mitchell can translate his game to the NBA much like Brunson did, then the Raptors would have a great start to their future team.