Post by George Gervin on Feb 10, 2023 15:56:27 GMT
Welcome, my fellow GMs, to this year's iteration D5 Mock Draft Series! I have reallllyyyy slacked on putting up the first iteration for the 2023 draft cycle, but now that most teams in D5 have at least a third of their games completed, it is a good time to post the lottery. The full first round version will come closer to the D5 All Star break (plus numerous trades I imagine between now and then that could affect picks ownership) and the 2/3 mark for most teams on their schedules.
Now, let's get into the teams 'Weeping for Wemby' in this year's draft!
Now, let's get into the teams 'Weeping for Wemby' in this year's draft!
- Orlando Magic - Victor Wembanyama (C), Metropolitans 92 (French League). At the top of the ‘Weeping for Wemby’ pile is Steve Nash and the Magic who have systemically torn down their roster through trades over the last few seasons and oriented their future around securing a top player in this draft. On paper, Wembanyama is (arguably) the best prospect since LeBron James. He has had years of hype behind his condor-like 7’4” frame, and in the penultimate season before his arrival in the NBA, he is dominating the French League to the tune of 23 PPG, 10 RPG, and 4 STOCKs per game. His jaw dropping mix of athleticism and size has the makings of a franchise player – really the only thing that could stop him from succeeding given the skill and size combination is his body failing him, which players at his size have tended to not hold up well long term. All that said, the Magic would be thrilled to throw Wemby in the middle as their anchor (replacing Rudy Gobert, who was drafted many years ago by their former GM) flanked by other great young talent, such as Trey Murhpy III and Shaedon Sharpe.
- Oklahoma Citi Thunder – Scoot Henderson (PG), G League Ignite. Checking in with the second pick is Gary Payton and the Thunder, who have inherited quite a roster to overhaul. With notable draft whiffs from the previous regime in 2018 (Kevin Knox a pick in front of SGA that could’ve paired WCJ and SGA), 2019 (trading out of the 1st round to the Jazz when Nic Claxton was on the board), and 2020 (Wiseman…), the Thunder have a real talent deficit to make up. That said, all the previous draft pain could be undone by landing the draft’s second best player, Scoot Henderson. One could argue that in each of the previous four drafts, Scoot would’ve been in contention to go first – as far as guard prospects go, he is an elite one mixing an amazing combination of athleticism, size, speed, power, and skill. Still just 18 years old and on his second season in the G League, Scoot is up to 21/6/4.5 averages on 50/44/73 shooting splits. The Thunder will gladly scoop up Henderson to make him the new face of the franchise as they build out the rest of the roster around him, AJ Griffin, and Kuminga.
- Denver Nuggets – Amen Thompson (PG), Overtime Elite (OTE). With the third selection, Alex English and the Nuggets continue to flesh out their rebuild. In the last three drafts, they’ve added a lot of quality talent – Bones Hyland, Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Onyeka Okongwu stand out from the pack – and in this deep draft, they’ve got three more 1st round selections. I’m sure they would love to be higher in the draft to grab one of the two clear top prospects but, in this iteration, they’ll have to settle with the next cluster of prospects in the 3-9 range. In this range, arguably the highest ceiling player is Amen Thompson of the OTE. Amen can be summed up into three crisp traits: 99th percentile athleticism, unbelievable passing vision and ability, and insane defensive potential. Standing 6’7”, 210 LBs, he’s the definition of a jumbo Lead Guard that should thrive with more space in the NBA. That said, he’s not without red flags – chiefly his shooting (the form is better but very mechanical) and the OTE’s questionable competition level – and if he doesn’t go to a strong organization, he could flame out spectacularly. For the Nuggets, they have a strong young group already – they can afford to take a moonshot selection this high.
- Portland Trailblazers – Brandon Miller (F), University of Alabama. At number 4 is the Rose City itself, Jerry West 's Portland Trailblazers. They have been one of the most active teams this D5 season on the trade mark, shedding not only players but also salary in an effort to march into next offseason with loads of cap space, surplus draft picks, and (hopefully) another young promising player to add to their core of Giddey, Maxey, and Ayton. I’m sure they’d love to be higher on this list given the painstaking approach they’ve taken to tearing it all down, but this draft definitely has depth and talent beyond the uber duo at the top. I will preface (fourth wall break) that, personally, I don’t think Miller is this good – he has had great production at Bama, but there’s been some real concerns (chiefly a very loose handle, inability to drive in any direction but a straight line, and he is sneakily old (almost 21) for a freshman) that should be noted. All that said, Miller can do two things incredibly well: shoot and score. He is the definition of limitless range scorer that is highly coveted in the NBA. The Blazers dealt an oft injured version of this in MPJ this season – perhaps taking another swing at a healthier, less talented version of the same archetype will help balance their young talent.
- Utah Jazz (via Heat) – Keyonte George (G), Baylor University. With the fifth pick, we have Jared Montini and the Jazz, who made waves in the offseason with free agent splashes and have made one of the more consequential trades of the young season in the Beal to Toronto swap that netted OG Anunoby and reclamation project Killian Hayes. As a top 5 team in D5 by record, they can afford to go BPA here and ignore positional need. That’s where George comes in. On paper, this may seem a bit high; his shooting splits are 39/33/80, and Baylor has stumbled a bit in Big 12 play. However, George as a prospect hits a tremendous number of checkmarks – both analytically and eye test – that screams ‘star level player’. First is his ability to play without the ball in an offense – Baylor has four guys in double digits on scoring average, and outside of Keyonte they’re all upper classmen with a title under their belt. He has been able to fit in very well with those experienced guys and not rock the boat. Second is his ability to get to the rim combined with his high three point rate – 6.5 attempts a game at the stripe combined with over 7 3s a game is a potent mix for an offensive talent. Third is his pace and feel for the game – he doesn’t play out of control, and he’s on a 12 game stretch in conference play where he's hit 17 points or higher 10 of those times with tough opponents in there. For the Jazz, he can serve two purposes as they compete – first as a nice injury hedge in the event Simons or Harden go down, and second as a long term replacement for Harden as age catches up.
- Washington Wizards – Nick Smith Jr. (SG), University of Arkansas. Ah yes, cue the Curb musical score – we have now arrived at D5’s perpetual lottery participant, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and the Wizards. This will be (if it holds) their ninth straight trip to the lottery from as high as #2 back in 2015 when they snagged DLo to as low as 11 (they have picked there a few times). They are veterans at the lottery process, and in this iteration they just miss out on the top 5 and its 48 hour time slots for selection. The Wizards nailed the draft last year, picking up two likely All Rookie guys in the lottery in Jaden Ivey and Keegan Murray while also picking up a nice long term 3 and D prospect in Christian Braun late. With KAT already locked down long term, the Wizards can focus on adding more talent around their core. Nick Smith has had, to put it politely, an incredibly snake bitten freshman season with Arkansas. He got injured early, came back, then got hurt again, and even in the time he was healthy it didn’t look inspiring for a guy who had critical acclaim entering the season. But…the talent is just mesmerizing for a guard. His spatial awareness and understanding how to move without the ball in an offense to create advantageous angles is elite, and you can see the blueprint of a guard who can play in any offense off of any type of backcourt partner. Next to Ivey, who is a far more explosive, downhill guard, he can operate off of screens and pindowns to get open on the Wiz. This would be a solid pickup mid lottery to bank on the pedigree of Smith to triumph over his injury history.
- Philadelphia 76ers – Ausar Thompson (SF), Overtime Elite (OTE). In the middle of the lottery we have Allen Iverson and the Sixers, who have had a very volatile ride during this young season. Roughly a month ago, they were fighting with the Blazers for top odds in the lottery, watching Ben Simmons fuck around and turn his contract into a radioactive dumpster fire, Desmond Bane get hurt, and bring in another player with a Blaise attitude in DLo. Now, though, with Bane back and starting to rip off wins now after bumps to Kuzma and Grant, they are in a prime spot to take BPA or potentially jump up in the lottery. In this version, they stay put and take the other Thompson twin, Ausar. Unlike Amen, Ausar is an elite athlete but not 99.99% type; additionally, unlike his brother, Ausar shows real shooting potential that have made significant strides over the last year. Defensively, he also shows immense potential given his length and activity on that end of the court. Like his brother, there will be questions about competition level and their ages compared to the other OTE players, but on upside alone, there are few players that exceed the twins. The Sixers can roll the dice on highest upside given they have several young guys already plus a star on the rise in Bane to soften the blow if Ausar flames out.
- Sacramento Kings - Anthony Black (G/F), University of Arkansas. With the eighth pick we have an unusual entrant in Amare Stoudemire 's Kings. In their last four seasons under their current GM, they’ve made the playoffs every cycle and have gone deep in two of those years. They’re always a bet to be competitive, but age and the overall parity of the Western Conference at the top with one juggernaut and four strong teams after that has pushed the former playoff regular down the standings. The Kings have one good long term piece in Jalen Duren, the League’s youngest player who has played very well for a foundering Pistons side. Anthony Black would be a totally different type of young prospect compared to the athletically elite, yet fundamentally raw, Duren. Black is a high IQ, super polished ballhandler who has stepped up in the absence of Nick Smith for the Razorbacks. He’s been a stat sheet stuffer, and his vision at 6’8” has been very impressive. He is the exact type of player teams hunt for in today’s NBA where having multiple ballhandlers with size and smarts is the dream setup. The Kings can start on modernizing their backcourt with the addition of Black to their roster.
- New Orleans Pelicans - Cam Whitmore (PF), Villanova University. Checking in at the ninth pick is Brian Scalabrine and the Pelicans, who like the Kings are in the lottery after a few years in the playoffs. Beset by injuries and the desire to preserve cap flexibility entering Trae and JJJ’s max extension offseason, the Pelicans are hanging around the edge of firmly in the lottery and Play-In game shenanigans. Devin Vassell – a pick up last season in a swap with WCJ going to Sacramento – has had a breakout season, giving the Pelicans a clear third young talent to lean on with Trae and JJJ for the future. Josh Green has also shown some flashes, and they still have solid role player talent in Brandon Clarke, Harrison Barnes, and Kelly “Canadian Giannis” Olynyk. What they’re still missing though is a ‘fuck you’ forward with attitude, physicality, and ability to scale into a two way terror. Whitmore checks many of those boxes as a freshman sporting a huge frame, 5* pedigree, and playing for a program that has regularly churned out NBA talent the last decade in Villanova. He had a slow start due to injury, but he’s quietly starting to string good two way performances together for the Wildcats. Where he has made his presence known most is defensively, as he’s hounded opposing ballhandlers (1.5 SPG) and is physically holding his own in the rough and tumble Big East. His major issue right now is the passing – it’s not clear if he’s lacking vision or still adjusting to the pace of college play – which has been poor, and he’s not getting to the rim as much as he used (just 2 FTs a game). Some of it may be injury rust to knock off coupled with Nova’s complex system, but there’s too much raw talent in a jacked frame for a super young (won’t be 19 until after Summer League) prospect that the Pelicans can afford to gamble on with their cache of draft picks and three good to great young pieces already.
- Chicago Bulls – Jarace Walker (F), University of Houston. Landing at number 10 are Shane Battier and the Bulls, who tried to retool towards improving their draft odds by offloading Dame Lillard back to his original D5 franchise, the Kings, before it was nixed at the 11th hour. Now with Dame still in the fold, WCJ staring down a big extension this offseason, and other teams frothing at the chance to trade for Tyler Herro, they are at a real crossroads. They need an injection of talent on the wings, and that’s just what Walker can provide. On an elite Houston Cougars squad firmly in the mix for a title, Walker has been cast into a very clear role on a veteran team. He does a lot of the blue collar work on defense and offense for Houston, showing flashes from time to time of the tantalizing on-ball ability in a player with his size and frame when Houston gives him some free rein on offense. Defensively is where his value has clearly popped in college, as he has been tasked with guarding the best opposing player night after night and, even as a freshman, he’s held up exceedingly well. There’s definite offensive upside here too with Jarace that, just due to the rest of the Houston roster, isn’t adequately explored in their system. For the Bulls, he would give them a blue-chip wing that they could either hold onto to form the basis of their next generation or dangle in front of other teams for a star to pair with Dame.
- Minnesota Timberwolves - Cason Wallace (PG), University of Kentucky. As we round the corner to the backend of the lottery, we have arrived at a team who is getting destroyed by injuries again: Walt Frazier 's Minnesota Timberwolves. Last time they were in the lottery with a shot at an elite talent, they landed Cade Cunningham off the heels of a shitload of injuries to aging stars. Now, their injuries this round are of a more tragic nature, as Lonzo Ball can’t walk or run still, Cade busted his shin, and the rest of the roster has had its ups and downs. The Wolves have some good young talent – Jalen “Good JW” Williams has been a beast for OKC, Immanuel Quickley has had an awesome year, and even GTJ has been solid for the Raptors. However, given their two biggest injury red flags are in the backcourt (and with Quickley’s FA looming in an offseason where many teams have cap to burn), they need a talent infusion to hedge future problems. Cason Wallace would be an amazing option this late as a physical, big point guard with immense defensive production at Kentucky, solid shooting (albeit on a bizarre 49/41/69 split spread), and clear ‘IT’ factor as a teammate. He’s going to be one of those guards who just sticks in the NBA with his ability to fit on a team, do the dirty work as a defender, and coming from the UK Guard to NBA pipeline, likely having some untapped upside that is just neutralized by Calipari’s rigid system (SGA, Herro, Murray, IQ, Maxey…the list goes on). The Wolves can grab Wallace as an upside piece and hope for the best with their injured starters and IQ’s free agency.
- Dallas Mavericks – Brice Sensabaugh (G/F), Ohio State University. At number 12 is Danny Longley and the Mavericks, who have been hanging around despite a roster that is really just Ja, Zubac, rookie stalwart Dyson Daniels, and then a bunch of ‘meh’ players after that. Some of them have some interesting upside, like Jalen Johnson and Usman Garuba, but with a superstar like Ja, they need to have some hits on more productive talent. It is hard to select a guy with greater production than Sensabaugh, who has been lighting it up on a good Ohio State squad. On the eye test, Sensabaugh shouldn’t be as productive as he is – he’s got a doughy 6’6” frame that looks more like an OSU defensive end than a basketball player, but he just knows how to get to his spots using skill, muscle, and the OSU system to put up points. It isn’t an understatement that on a per minute basis at the college level, he is one of the best offensive players in basketball at 17.5 PPG in just 23 MPG. The offensive upside and production aside, Brice is down this far for two reasons: first, he is a horrible defender subject to regular torture by opposing teams switching onto him. With better conditioning and more accountability from a coaching staff, he should be able to improve on that end given his frame and length combination. Second, he has a penchant to get really, really bad tunnel vision on offense. He’s not incapable of passing – he just likes to pound the ball and not share. That won’t work at the NBA for him early on as unless he’s going to a garbage team, he won’t get 1st or 2nd option level touches on offense. For the Mavs, though, he would prove to be a high upside, high risk selection where he could explode offensively with more space, better conditioning, and less stress from a team to carry the offense.
- Milwaukee Bucks – Taylor Hendricks (F), University of Central Florida. At the back of the lottery with lucky #13 is Glenn Robinson and the Milwaukee Bucks, who have managed to do essentially a two year pivot on the fly from perennial playoff team in the East with Anthony Davis and Bradley Beal to now having a young, rising group of players led by Darius Garland and Scottie Barnes. The Bucks have a plethora of young prospects, so at this stage they’ll want to go BPA and ignore fit as they work on accumulating more assets. Hendricks is a fast riser as a prospect, going from a relatively unheralded recruit in high school to exploding early on at UCF as a do-it-all forward with good shooting touch (47/40/80) splits and real defensive chops (nearly 3 STOCKs per game). The biggest issues with Hendricks as a prospect are his passing game (he takes care of the ball extremely well, but doesn’t quite show as much facilitation as desired for two way wings) and he might be stuck between forward positions if he can’t keep up the shooting prowess. All that said, he is very young (just turned 19) and has already shown real production that is highly projectable to today’s NBA roles and responsibilities for wings. For the Bucks, he’d be another good young guy to add to the fold on the wings with Grimes, Jabari Smith, Ziaire Williams, Kevin Huerter, and Nikola Jovic already on the roster as a high risk, high reward swing.
- Denver Nuggets (via Raptors) – Gradey Dick (SF), University of Kansas. With the last pick in the lottery, we have Alex English's Nuggets second selection in this first round. At #3, they scooped up the draft’s premier athlete in Amen Thompson of OTE. At #14, they grab the draft’s best shooter in Gradey Dick of Kansas. On a veteran team coming off an NCAA championship, Dick has been the lone underclassman for Kansas making real impact – he has started 23 games for them, and given Kansas has had a brutal schedule, he has gotten a lot of action in high profile games. The pluses for Dick are his size (6’8”), high release point, very fluid mechanics, and ability to shoot on numerous platforms (i.e., on the move, off screens, standstill, dribbling into his shot) that is highly coveted in today’s NBA. He has demonstrated smart defensive instincts as well despite a rail thin frame that, with a lithe lower body, doesn’t portend being able to bulk up in time. For the Nuggets, he could prove to be a high floor, low risk type selection that is a perfect complimentary starter to its more ball dominant stars as an elite snipper on the wings who isn’t a completely hopeless player defensively.