San Antonio Spurs
Post by George Gervin on Jan 16, 2023 23:32:06 GMT
Note: For the crowd who don't want to read the full explanation, the two sentence summary is as follows: 1) Gobert is sliding defensively while still being a very good defender, just no longer Atlas holding up the whole franchise type defender and 2) he is a negative player from an On/Off perspective for the first time in his career due to the offensive drag he is imbuing unto the entire TWolves system. As such, he needs to be knocked down a peg from his current rating perch.
Current Rating: 88
Suggested Rating: 84.5
For the full explanation, keep reading here...
In a movie voice-over tone: "What if I told you the 2022-23 Minnesota Timberwolves had a defender who, presently, is in the 99th percentile for on-ball defense, 93rd percentile for off-ball defense, and grades at an A/A+ grades for NBA tracking data on defense in all of the following areas: Matchup Difficulty, Defensive Positional Versatility, On-Ball Defense, Ball Screen Navigation, and Rim dFG% vs Expectations...."
...if your bingo card had Jaden McDaniels, congratulations! You've identified the actual engine who should get All Defense nods supporting Minnesota's top half of the League defense.
Now let's talk about Rudy Gobert.
I'll preface with this: by advanced measures and traditional stats, he's still a very impactful defender. That stated, whether you look at it by raw stat output or advanced measures, Gobert has had a noticeable decline through half a season in Minnesota that mirrors other hulking non-offensively skilled centers (Roy Hibbert, anyone?) in NBA history.
We will start with the easy part -- the raw counting stats. This season, Rudy Gobert is posting the following line:
On paper, it doesn't look that bad -- walking double-double, top 5 offensive rebounder in the game still (albeit he has way more company at the top than years past), and within 3 FT of the rim, he's still a great finisher. However, contextually these stats are a significant decline from even last season and peak Rudy dominance:
The 13.6 PPG? Lowest in seven seasons.
The 11.8 RPG? Lowest in six seasons.
The 8.4 DRPG? Lowest in six seasons and a full 2.5 RPG less than last year in Utah.
The 1.3 BPG? Lowest since his rookie year in 2013 (not a typo), and down almost a full BPG from last year, and half the BPG rate (2.7) he sported in the 2020 season just two years ago.
In short, his output is very good but no longer elite compared to prior seasons. You could argue the decline is as much a function of the clusterfuck that is the TWolves coaching system, but Rudy's calling card has never been offensive dominance -- it has been defensive greatness holding up any team. Which leads to the advanced stats portion of this program.
Simply put, the Advanced Stats behemoth is beginning to come back to the pack. His Points Per Possession On/Off impact is still very influential (-7.8), which is great from a defensive point of view...until you realize that it is the lowest rate in five years, and for the first time in his career, Rudy is an overall negative player for On/Off impact when factoring in the offense. That's right, not even his rookie year was he a negative player on the court. When on the court offensively, the TWolves are 107.1 points per 100 possessions, which is 30th in the League. That's behind the dysfunctional Rockets and injury riddled Hornets.
The major defensive indicator though on Rudy's waning grip on the top of the Defense pile comes in the rim protection data. When peeling back the layers on Cleaning the Glass and the NBA's tracking data, Gobert had for the last eight years finished 1st five times and 2nd twice (finishing 9th the other time) in Points Saved Over Average. What this means is Rudy was the PREMIER protector for the Jazz to the point, if they put an average player in at center instead of Rudy, their defense fell off a cliff and the conversion rate on drives (and therefore points scored) was over 20% higher when Rudy wasn't on the court. In those years, Rudy exceeded 2 points or more saved per 100 possessions, which is elite, 99th percentile territory for at-rim defense.
Well now, in Minnesota, Rudy is currently 24th amongst 61 qualifying bigs in rim protection effectiveness. Last year, opponents only converted 49% at the rim when Rudy was in the area (defined as six feet) to contest -- a League best rate. This year? 60.2% conversion rate, which is the worst in his career and a HUGE increase from years prior. To juxtapose it to McDaniels, who has very high marks for his defense, Rudy is saving only 0.3 points per 100 attempts compared to 1.9/100 attempts for McDaniels, which is near the League lead.
I don't want folks to take away from this post an excoriation of Rudy and that he should be completely dropped to an inappropriate rating -- he is still an impactful player who is being unfairly maligned because the Timberwolves GM is a fucking idiot for giving up 5 1st round picks, Walker Kessler, Jared Vanderbilt, and some reliable veterans. However, that doesn't change the fact that at almost 31, the data and how he is impacting play on the court backs up a slow down from All Time great levels of defensive play.
Current Rating: 88
Suggested Rating: 84.5
For the full explanation, keep reading here...
In a movie voice-over tone: "What if I told you the 2022-23 Minnesota Timberwolves had a defender who, presently, is in the 99th percentile for on-ball defense, 93rd percentile for off-ball defense, and grades at an A/A+ grades for NBA tracking data on defense in all of the following areas: Matchup Difficulty, Defensive Positional Versatility, On-Ball Defense, Ball Screen Navigation, and Rim dFG% vs Expectations...."
...if your bingo card had Jaden McDaniels, congratulations! You've identified the actual engine who should get All Defense nods supporting Minnesota's top half of the League defense.
Now let's talk about Rudy Gobert.
I'll preface with this: by advanced measures and traditional stats, he's still a very impactful defender. That stated, whether you look at it by raw stat output or advanced measures, Gobert has had a noticeable decline through half a season in Minnesota that mirrors other hulking non-offensively skilled centers (Roy Hibbert, anyone?) in NBA history.
We will start with the easy part -- the raw counting stats. This season, Rudy Gobert is posting the following line:
- 13.6 PPG/11.8 RPG (3.4 Offensive, 8.4 Defensive)/1.3 BPG/0.9 SPG
- 68% FG on 7.7 attempts per game (70% TS)
On paper, it doesn't look that bad -- walking double-double, top 5 offensive rebounder in the game still (albeit he has way more company at the top than years past), and within 3 FT of the rim, he's still a great finisher. However, contextually these stats are a significant decline from even last season and peak Rudy dominance:
The 13.6 PPG? Lowest in seven seasons.
The 11.8 RPG? Lowest in six seasons.
The 8.4 DRPG? Lowest in six seasons and a full 2.5 RPG less than last year in Utah.
The 1.3 BPG? Lowest since his rookie year in 2013 (not a typo), and down almost a full BPG from last year, and half the BPG rate (2.7) he sported in the 2020 season just two years ago.
In short, his output is very good but no longer elite compared to prior seasons. You could argue the decline is as much a function of the clusterfuck that is the TWolves coaching system, but Rudy's calling card has never been offensive dominance -- it has been defensive greatness holding up any team. Which leads to the advanced stats portion of this program.
Simply put, the Advanced Stats behemoth is beginning to come back to the pack. His Points Per Possession On/Off impact is still very influential (-7.8), which is great from a defensive point of view...until you realize that it is the lowest rate in five years, and for the first time in his career, Rudy is an overall negative player for On/Off impact when factoring in the offense. That's right, not even his rookie year was he a negative player on the court. When on the court offensively, the TWolves are 107.1 points per 100 possessions, which is 30th in the League. That's behind the dysfunctional Rockets and injury riddled Hornets.
The major defensive indicator though on Rudy's waning grip on the top of the Defense pile comes in the rim protection data. When peeling back the layers on Cleaning the Glass and the NBA's tracking data, Gobert had for the last eight years finished 1st five times and 2nd twice (finishing 9th the other time) in Points Saved Over Average. What this means is Rudy was the PREMIER protector for the Jazz to the point, if they put an average player in at center instead of Rudy, their defense fell off a cliff and the conversion rate on drives (and therefore points scored) was over 20% higher when Rudy wasn't on the court. In those years, Rudy exceeded 2 points or more saved per 100 possessions, which is elite, 99th percentile territory for at-rim defense.
Well now, in Minnesota, Rudy is currently 24th amongst 61 qualifying bigs in rim protection effectiveness. Last year, opponents only converted 49% at the rim when Rudy was in the area (defined as six feet) to contest -- a League best rate. This year? 60.2% conversion rate, which is the worst in his career and a HUGE increase from years prior. To juxtapose it to McDaniels, who has very high marks for his defense, Rudy is saving only 0.3 points per 100 attempts compared to 1.9/100 attempts for McDaniels, which is near the League lead.
Utah Jazz
Phoenix Suns
Portland Trailblazers
Charlotte Hornets
Minnesota Timberwolves
New Orleans Pelicans
Washington Wizards
Houston Rockets
New York Knicks
Brooklyn Nets
Detroit Pistons
Sacramento Kings
Orlando Magic
Indiana Pacers
