San Antonio Spurs
Post by George Gervin on Dec 16, 2021 18:09:41 GMT
I know it's coming at some point, so might as well get this up and out of the way as even I can't argue his current rating. I understand I am impacting my own team's success but numbers and eye test doesn't lie.
Counting stats wise, compared to last year AD is actually up on everything sporting a 23.8/10.2/3.0 slash line with 3.5 STOCKs per game, but trend wise from the Lakers bubble championship it's been a slow slide for him from that 'Destroyer of Worlds' stretch. The gist on a sample size basis:
All that said, I don't think this is some 5-6 point decline in overall rating as some in the Discord are suggesting. A lot of his minutes this year have been next to Russ with LeBron off the court, and Russ is getting to a point where he cannot really drive by guys in the halfcourt and his athleticism is really waning. The Lakers roster construction is also fucking garbage and he is their only 'positive' defender on the court for them. AD has been forced to space the floor more than he really should to compensate for Russ and other new additions to the Lakers as well, which even at his apex he wasn't ever better than a 33% 3P shooter.
However...AD also bulked up WAY too much and it's clear that is backfiring in his movement on the court and the defensive versatility isn't the same as bubble/last two years at NOP AD. Maybe he turns it around at some point (he is just 28 still) but I do think a downgrade is in order here.
Current Rating: 96
Proposed Rating: 93
Counting stats wise, compared to last year AD is actually up on everything sporting a 23.8/10.2/3.0 slash line with 3.5 STOCKs per game, but trend wise from the Lakers bubble championship it's been a slow slide for him from that 'Destroyer of Worlds' stretch. The gist on a sample size basis:
- 62 regular season games since that bubble run and a six game series vs PHX last year in the playoffs
- FG% has actually been about career average at 52%, but his 3P% has plummeted from the bubble of 34% to a now ghastly 18%. FT% is also dipping as well from 85% that bubble year to 72% now
- The advanced stats tell the bigger picture of AD's slide -- his bubble year WS/48 was .250 (second highest in his career) with his highest Defensive advanced metrics. This season, he's down to .179, which isn't terrible but is a far cry from that bubble play. His BPM has also slid to the point where it's clear he isn't an apex, top tier 1st option but more like the League's best 2nd option to an apex superstar
All that said, I don't think this is some 5-6 point decline in overall rating as some in the Discord are suggesting. A lot of his minutes this year have been next to Russ with LeBron off the court, and Russ is getting to a point where he cannot really drive by guys in the halfcourt and his athleticism is really waning. The Lakers roster construction is also fucking garbage and he is their only 'positive' defender on the court for them. AD has been forced to space the floor more than he really should to compensate for Russ and other new additions to the Lakers as well, which even at his apex he wasn't ever better than a 33% 3P shooter.
However...AD also bulked up WAY too much and it's clear that is backfiring in his movement on the court and the defensive versatility isn't the same as bubble/last two years at NOP AD. Maybe he turns it around at some point (he is just 28 still) but I do think a downgrade is in order here.
Current Rating: 96
Proposed Rating: 93
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