Alex English's 2021 Big Board
Aug 6, 2021 23:05:43 GMT
Ian Noble, Mike Krzyzewski, and 5 more like this
Post by Alex English on Aug 6, 2021 23:05:43 GMT
My draft is over, so here's my big board for this year. We can all come back in a few years and see how bad some of my opinions were.
I have a lot more tiers this year, and I'd break them down like this:
Tier 1 (1-4) - Very good starters with realistic star upside
Tier 2 (5-10) - Projectable starters with possible star upside
Tier 3 (11-20 + Giddey, Garuba, Sengun) - High level role players with starter upside
Tier 4 (21-40 + Petrusev, Vrenz, Jakobaitis) - Likely role players with varying levels of upside
Tier 5 (41-60 + Begarin) - Lower level role players or G-Leaguers, some with upside
Tier 6 (Honourable Mentions) - Like tier 4, but worse
Tier 7 (Everybody Else) - Get your passports updated
I have a lot more tiers this year, and I'd break them down like this:
Tier 1 (1-4) - Very good starters with realistic star upside
- Mobley was definitely a better performing prospect than Cade this year, but Cade stays at #1 because of his archetype. The NBA is all about tall wing-like creators. Cade has the most obvious path to superstardom.
- I almost dropped Suggs to a lower tier because I think his ceiling is much lower than the other three, but I also think he has a high floor as a good and reliable starter, definitely a higher floor than Green, so I left him as part of this tier.
Tier 2 (5-10) - Projectable starters with possible star upside
- Barnes easily has the highest ceiling of this tier imo. Obviously everything depends on his shot. Being in Toronto is a great place for him and makes me higher on his development, but I'm not going to move him up.
- Wagner was fantastic as a prospect in every way except offensive creation and raw athleticism, for that reason he might have the lowest ceiling in this tier despite being the guy at the top. He's so good at everything else that I think he'll have a very productive and impactful career.
- Bouknight and Kuminga are clearly the riskiest guys in this tier imo. They can be exciting and explosive, but their downside is pretty low.
Tier 3 (11-20 + Giddey, Garuba, Sengun) - High level role players with starter upside
- This set of players have certain holes in their game or limitations on their development. I project them as having a much more difficult path to becoming fully dynamic multi-dimensional two-way players. They'll likely fill a specific kind of role in the NBA.
Tier 4 (21-40 + Petrusev, Vrenz, Jakobaitis) - Likely role players with varying levels of upside
- Things really start opening up in this tier. We've mostly got good college players with limitations or archetypes that probably prevent them from becoming more than good backups (Preston, Dosunmu, Queta, etc.) mixed with more raw or bad players with potential to become really nice players in the future (Todd, Ziaire, Primo, etc.)
Tier 5 (41-60 + Begarin) - Lower level role players or G-Leaguers, some with upside
- These guys probably all suck, but I'm sure a few will manage their weaknesses or have outlier level development and become serviceable players. Whether it's the raw athletic types (Greg Brown, JT Thor, David Johnson, etc.) or the limited players whose elite skills in specific areas overcome their weaknesses (Garza, Hurt, Schakel, etc.), we'll just have to wait and see.
Tier 6 (Honourable Mentions) - Like tier 4, but worse
- This group isn't too different from tier 4. They seemed to be worth highlighting and separating from the big long list of likely nobodies below, but I ran out of spots in my top 60.
Tier 7 (Everybody Else) - Get your passports updated
- I'm sure many of these guys will have nice careers in Europe or China or wherever, but I just found it hard to see a path to the NBA for them. If any of them manage to do it, I'd bet on the elite shooters (Alston, Jaworski, Littleson, etc.) where one of them could become the next Duncan Robinson.