Post by George Gervin on Feb 5, 2021 14:47:35 GMT
Note: To preface, the sample size for this SW is Shai's last 46 games during the 2019-20 season, the Thunder's 7 game series vs the Rockets in the bubble, and the 19 games where Shai has been the 1st option this season for a total sample of 72 games.
SGA is the leading man now in OKC, and he's looked excellent so far shouldering the load (usage up from 24% to 27%) while not having any dips in his efficiency (FG% is up from 47% last season to 51% this season, 3P% is up from 34% last season to 38% this season on more attempts per game, and his EFG% and TS% (57% and 62% respectively) are both up over last season) and improving all his counting stats except RPG.
His current counting stats line as the Thunder's leading man (19 games): 21.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 6.3 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.7 BPG in just 33 MPG. His advanced stats are all improved this season as well from last year, as his PER is up to 21.7, his 3P attempt and FT attempt rates (.311 and .424) are both highest in his career (obviously tied to the usage bump, but still a positive sign given his percentages), and his Assist Rate has more than doubled (32% from 15% last season). While his individual RAPTOR is a barely net positive right now (+0.3), it's his On/Off stat that demonstrates his value to the Thunder, as the starting unit plummets (from +1.7 to -6.2) when Shai sits this year.
In short, Shai has taken another mini-leap from last season, and he's done so without hampering his shooting efficiency (with the exception of FT%, which is down to 76% from 81%) and putting up very good counting and advanced stats for a third year, 22 year old combo guard. He's not without warts -- you'd wish he took more than 15 shots per game given his standing as a team's 1st option with his shooting rates, and in the playoffs he looked skittish to put it mildly vs. Houston with the exception of one awesome game in that series where he had 31/12/6/4 -- but he's definitely better than his current 80 rating with his Old Man, slow-the-pace down, play style.
Before I propose a rating, I've added the stat averages across the 72 games for context:
2019-20 season (from previous SW onward): 46 games, 19.2 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.2 SPG, 0.8 BPG, shot 50/32/80 splits with 57% TS, 24% USG rate, 6.1 WS, .121 WS/48, and a 1.7 BPM (both OBPM and DBPM were positive)
2019-20 playoffs in the bubble: 7 games, 16.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.4 BPG, shot 43/40/96 splits with 57% TS, 18% USG rate, 0.6 WS, .1 WS/48, and a 1.8 BPM
2020-21 season: 19 games, 21.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 6.3 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.7 BPG, shooting currently 51/38/76 with 62% TS, 27% USG rate, 2.0 WS, .153 WS/48, and a 3.2 BPM (both positive still)
Current Rating: 80
Proposed Rating: 85
SGA is the leading man now in OKC, and he's looked excellent so far shouldering the load (usage up from 24% to 27%) while not having any dips in his efficiency (FG% is up from 47% last season to 51% this season, 3P% is up from 34% last season to 38% this season on more attempts per game, and his EFG% and TS% (57% and 62% respectively) are both up over last season) and improving all his counting stats except RPG.
His current counting stats line as the Thunder's leading man (19 games): 21.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 6.3 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.7 BPG in just 33 MPG. His advanced stats are all improved this season as well from last year, as his PER is up to 21.7, his 3P attempt and FT attempt rates (.311 and .424) are both highest in his career (obviously tied to the usage bump, but still a positive sign given his percentages), and his Assist Rate has more than doubled (32% from 15% last season). While his individual RAPTOR is a barely net positive right now (+0.3), it's his On/Off stat that demonstrates his value to the Thunder, as the starting unit plummets (from +1.7 to -6.2) when Shai sits this year.
In short, Shai has taken another mini-leap from last season, and he's done so without hampering his shooting efficiency (with the exception of FT%, which is down to 76% from 81%) and putting up very good counting and advanced stats for a third year, 22 year old combo guard. He's not without warts -- you'd wish he took more than 15 shots per game given his standing as a team's 1st option with his shooting rates, and in the playoffs he looked skittish to put it mildly vs. Houston with the exception of one awesome game in that series where he had 31/12/6/4 -- but he's definitely better than his current 80 rating with his Old Man, slow-the-pace down, play style.
Before I propose a rating, I've added the stat averages across the 72 games for context:
2019-20 season (from previous SW onward): 46 games, 19.2 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.2 SPG, 0.8 BPG, shot 50/32/80 splits with 57% TS, 24% USG rate, 6.1 WS, .121 WS/48, and a 1.7 BPM (both OBPM and DBPM were positive)
2019-20 playoffs in the bubble: 7 games, 16.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.4 BPG, shot 43/40/96 splits with 57% TS, 18% USG rate, 0.6 WS, .1 WS/48, and a 1.8 BPM
2020-21 season: 19 games, 21.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 6.3 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.7 BPG, shooting currently 51/38/76 with 62% TS, 27% USG rate, 2.0 WS, .153 WS/48, and a 3.2 BPM (both positive still)
Current Rating: 80
Proposed Rating: 85