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Post by George Gervin on Dec 20, 2020 22:40:56 GMT
Welcome, my fellow GMs, to the 2021 D5 Mock Draft Series! I envision this being a mock that will be updated a couple of times a year at key points -- ideally at the D5 ASG, at season's end, and right after the D5 lottery results are finalized -- to ensure that this mock can account for the three fluid things with all drafts: pick ownership, player movement up and down the boards, and team records. If this works out well this season, it could be a series that becomes an annual exercise. As a preface to the preseason lottery mock -- and before a GM says "why is my team in the lottery, does Gervin think I'm going to suck this year and that's why I'm in this projection" -- I am making no projections about record in the first iteration. This order was derived from the final season standings from last year, just to make it easier for this first projection. The second update -- which will be around the D5 ASG, and expand to the rest of Round 1 -- will be more reflective of record projections and team status. Without further ado, here is the preseason lottery mock draft for 2021. Stay tuned around the 2020-21 D5 ASG for iteration #2, and the rest of Round 1! - Los Angeles Clippers – Cade Cunningham (PG), Oklahoma State University. We all know that the Clippers swapped their top three selection from the 2019 draft, RJ Barrett, for the 1st overall pick in 2020 to take LaMelo Ball as the heir apparent at PG. However, if the Clippers and Mike Krzyzewski were to land the 1st pick in 2021, they shouldn’t overthink it—Cunningham has been billed as Ben Simmons with a jumper, and while he doesn’t have the same freakish strength and size that Simmons possesses, he’s a powerful PG who is already 6’7”, 220 LBs and making an impact in college for Oklahoma State as the Number One option. When it comes to Cunningham, the only real knock at this stage is he can be too deferential at times, and he needs to be more assertive. However, there’s worse problems to have than two gigantic guards with elite vision and creation ability as your centerpieces, and LAC would be in an envious position adding Cunningham to their young core.
- Detroit Pistons – Evan Mobley (PF), University of Southern California. The Pistons and Chauncey Billups may be tempted to go with a wing like Jonathan Kuminga or Zaire Williams at #2, but the selection that presents the best upside and talent this high is Evan Mobley. An extremely athletic forward who is a two way terror, Mobley could team with Ayton in the frontcourt in a dynamic one-two punch as the Pistons round out their starting 5. While he definitely needs to improve his FT shooting, and he turns the ball over too much by trying to do too much at times, the upside is undeniable due to his length, rebounding, scoring makeup, and defensive potential. Such a selection would also open up opportunities for Detroit to explore adding a wing through a trade – using whoever is the odd man out between Sabonis, Ayton, and Mobley as the centerpiece.
- Utah Jazz – Jalen Suggs (PG), Gonzaga University. The Jazz and Tim Duncan spent most of their 2020 draft wheeling and dealing, picking up several selections and a shooting – but diminutive – PG in Tyrell Terry in the late first round. Jalen Suggs would represent the complete opposite of Terry (and incumbent PG Collin Sexton) in many regards as a physical force at PG. A 5* basketball and football recruit, the physicality and change of direction skills from the gridiron definitely show up for Suggs on the basketball court. When he gets going, there is really no stopping him from getting to the basket, and unlike last year’s football player turned basketball lottery talent in Anthony Edwards, Suggs displays a high basketball IQ and understanding of the game that compliments his physical prowess. On the Jazz, he could push Sexton into more of the SG type role that fits his game while providing a real force on both ends in the backcourt for a team already sporting an elite wing in Jayson Tatum and some promising frontcourt talent.
- Phoenix Suns (via Lakers) – Jalen Green (SG), G League Select. The Suns and Jared Montini have been snake bitten with lottery misfortune over the last few cycles, as they missed out on a top 3 pick in the 2018 draft, watched Cleveland win the Zion lottery with their pick, and then have two lottery selections in 2020 finish at the back half of the lottery. However, that could all change in 2021, where they figure to have not one, but potentially two lottery selections. With the first selection, they go for Jalen Green, a hyper athletic and competitive shooting guard on the G League Select team. Green’s biggest selling points are the competitive fire, which has been comped to some NBA greats like Kobe and MJ, combined with an elite basketball IQ and athleticism. Where he needs to improve is his frame, which is about 180 LBs, and some fundamentals with drives and attacking the basket. For Phoenix, Green could finally be the Lottery Gods bestowing an elite talent to their roster.
- Oklahoma City Thunder – Jonathan Kuminga (SF), G League Select. In the 2020 draft, the Thunder and Kevin Hollis took arguably the biggest athletic freak of the group in James Wiseman – despite only 3 games at Memphis before eligibility issues set in. In Kuminga, they go back to that same formula of freak athlete with insane traits, but one who hasn’t played as often as scouts would like over the years. Kuminga, in this draft, represents a level of potential that is likely matched only by Cunningham. At 6’8”, 210 LBs, and having just turned 18 (he skipped a grade late in HS), he’s physically a tank for his age, with the understanding and presence of mind to exploit matchups by leveraging that physicality and strength. Where Kuminga gets a bit off track is with finesse, as his game right now is a lot of sheer force and imposing his athletic will on guys. At the next level, while he figures to be a top shelf athlete, he will need to continue refining his game to beat guys with skill as much as he does with pure physical gifts. For the Thunder, he’d be a high upside wing to gamble on with his physical profile and age being major pluses at this point.
- Minnesota Timberwolves – Usman Garuba (PF), Real Madrid. The Timberwolves and Walt Frazier had the year from hell in 2019-20; outside of Golden State, they sported more talent on the injured reserve than any other team in D5, and it showed in their struggles to consistently keep up with teams during the year. While I’m sure they hoped for more lottery luck in where they would be selecting, they still landed an elite level prospect in Deni Avdija, who figures to be a fixture on the wings for years to come. In this first draft iteration, they go back to the international pool with Usman Garuba, a player who has been on NBA radars for a few years now playing for a big-time EuroLeague team in Real Madrid. He may not have eye opening stats for Real, but physically he’s an absolute monster for 18 years old, and defensively – both on the glass and as a team defender – he projects to be an anchor with his ability to move, react, and guard multiple positions. Unfortunately, his offense leaves a lot to be desired at this stage, and he will require patience (and a prayer) that he’s more than just a roll man offensively. For the TWolves, he’d be a wise pick as a smart hedge for Blake Griffin, who is only on a one year deal, and as an easy plug and play.
- New Orleans Pelicans – Zaire Williams (SF), Stanford University. The Pelicans and Brian Scalabrine had a boatload of selections in the 2020 draft, and spent most of the time trying to deal out entirely or far enough back given their roster spot logjam. They went – with their lone selection in Round 1 – for a 3 and D wing in Josh Green from Arizona in 2020, who was more ‘D’ than ‘3’. In 2021, they go for a guy who is more ‘3’ than ‘D’ in Zaire Williams. Williams is a super intriguing prospect given his shooting profile, huge size, ability to stroke off movement, in a spot up roll, or creating for himself (more on that last one in a bit). He’s also got all the tools – length, movement, ability to slide – to stay with smaller perimeter guys and hang with other wings and some bigs. Williams has, right now, two big issues holding him back from top 5 consideration. First, his basketball IQ is questionable; he’s not a guy who shows a lot of ability as a playmaker, as his ability to create for himself is pretty rudimentary right now, and he sports a pretty ghastly AST to TO ratio. Second – and arguably more concerning – is injury history. He missed an entire year of HS with an ankle injury, and he’s been sporting a huge knee brace at Stanford for what’s been described as a “minor” injury…though the precautions say otherwise. He could be a steal this late if he pans out, but he also could be one of those players teasing potential that doesn’t figure it out till their second contract. The Pelicans can afford to roll the dice give their bevy of young players already, and with no need for Williams to contribute right away.
- Washington Wizards – BJ Boston (SG), University of Kentucky. The Wizards and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar – no strangers to the lottery – are at a bit of a cross roads. They’ve got one definitive stud in Bam Adebayo, another young piece (when healthy) in Jonathan Isaac, a maxed out young PG in D’Angelo Russell, a pair of interesting late draft finds in Gary Trent Jr. and Anfernee Simons, and then their most recent selection in Devin Vassell from the 2020 draft. They’ve got big holes on the wing to fill, and at this stage they could opt for someone like Roko Prkacin or Scottie Barnes to help plug that. They could also opt for the higher upside of a guy like BJ Boston, an athletic guard from Kentucky. Boston is a hard guy to project. He’s got many attractive traits for a modern wing, with size (6’7”), length, and raw talent that cannot be taught. However, he’s really struggled in transitioning to the college game, shooting some paltry splits (39/18/84) and exhibiting some poor choices both on and off ball on both ends of the court. This would be a gamble that the Boston who challenged for a top 5 ranking in HS – and who had some eye opening scoring explosions – is going through a rut that he will pull out of, versus being a guy who dominated the lower ranks and is just average when facing guys just as big, strong, and as athletic. The Wizards, with holes to fill and seemingly not a ton of interest in getting off the lottery train, could take the gamble he becomes that scorer again.
- Phoenix Suns – Roko Prkacin (PF), Croatia. At #9 are the Suns and Jared Montini again. Earlier in the lottery, they went for a backcourt centerpiece in Jalen Green. At this selection, they go for a frontcourt centerpiece in Roko Prkacin of KK Cibona. Prkacin is the Avdija of this draft: a guy who is pretty solid on the wing, with a different calling card (Prkacin is a scoring wing, whereas Avdija is more of a playmaker). Prkacin is solid in several areas – he can handle the ball, create for himself and others, is a decent rebounder and team defender, and understands where the efficient areas are on the court for his game. His biggest plus right now is his competitive fire, hustle, and effort. He has a motor that doesn’t quit, and he’s already been named captain on Cibona, which is a testament to his leadership for such a young player. For the Suns, he could be a nice compliment to Green and, if he gets healthy, Mo Bamba to form the start of a young trio.
- New York Knicks – Keon Johnson (SG), University of Tennessee. At #10 we have the Knicks and Arvydas Sabonis, who have a new GM for the third time in three years. In the 2020 draft, they took a player who was the advanced stats crown jewel in Tyrese Halliburton, who figures to be their PG of the future. In the 2021 draft, they go with a guy who could be a great compliment to Halliburton in Keon Johnson out of Tennessee. Johnson is a leap of faith, but it’s hard to overlook what he brings to the table. Johnson is a top shelf athlete with elite level body control, a sixth sense when finishing and slashing to the rim, and a player who exhibits a great understanding of the Pick and Roll game – an absolutely crucial skill for today’s game. Johnson also turns loose his athletic gifts defensively, as he can cover a tremendous amount of ground, has very active hands, and plays bigger than his listed 6’5” due to that activity. For the Knicks, he’d be a nice selection as an upside swing that can play off ball and on ball – just like Halliburton can – and he’d be great leverage in contract talks with Buddy Hield, aka the captain of the “I have All Star nights but am not actually a winning player” team.
- Denver Nuggets (via Raptors) – Scottie Barnes (SF), Florida State University. At #11 we have the Nuggets and Alex English, who have gone from a perennial contender for the D5 crown to blowing up their roster in one offseason. Gone are James Harden, Nikola Vucevic, Pascal Siakim, and Tobias Harris – the core of that contending group – and in are the young guys (and Brook Lopez) for the start of the rebuild back. The Nuggets walked away with a number of assets from their wheeling and dealing, including some nice frontcourt pieces in Jaxson Hayes and Onyeka Okongwu, and a shooting wing in Aaron Nesmith. Scottie Barnes out of FSU, at this selection, would provide Denver with another young player unlike any other on their roster. Barnes seems to be straight from the FSU mold of hyper athletic, gigantic physical freaks at 6’9”, 230 LBs with a versatile game. Compared to the pair of FSU wings drafted in 2020, Barnes is neither as defensively sharp nor athletically freakish as Vassell and Williams respectively, but he is leaps and bounds above that pair on the offensive end as a playmaker. Barnes is already averaging 4.3. APG – which is very good for a freshman wing on a deep team – and he’s not a slouch defensively either with almost 2 SPG. Where he needs to improve is as a shooter, as he’s woeful from the line (42%) and 3 (22%), and for his size you’d like to see him average more than 4.5 RPG. That’s splitting hairs, though, at this point, as Barnes brings so much to the table to like as a modern wing that he’s worth the pick in the late lottery for a team with lots of opportunities to draft over the coming years.
- Indiana Pacers – Moses Moody (SG/SF), University of Arkansas. At #12 are the Pacers and Larry Bird, who are at a bit of a cross roads like some other Eastern Conference teams. With the top of the East stacked, and a roster that is part win now (DeMar Derozan, Fred Van Vleet) and part looking towards the future (the multitude of second round finds or young guys acquired the last few years), the Pacers figure to make some noise but probably will not present themselves as a threat to the top of the East. To that end, adding a high level, two way wing who shows promising potential on both ends would go a long way towards pushing the Pacers up the East ladder. Moses Moody, a freshman wing out of the SEC, could prove to be that kind of accelerator. A thicker wing at 6’6”, 205 LBs for a freshman, Moody has been the SEC freshman putting himself on the map early on this season. Playing in the Muss Man’s supercharged offense, Moody is putting up very good shooting splits (48/41/86) on good volume at all levels, while showing off a well-rounded game with his rebounding activity (5.7 RPG), defensive acumen (2.0 combined steals and blocks per game), and he’s even exhibited great discipline with few TOs (1.2) and fouls (1.8) per game despite playing almost 30 MPG. At this stage, the only reason Moody isn’t higher in the lottery is his current showing so far has been against a very weak schedule for Arkansas compared to other Power 5 teams. For Indiana, if he made it this far down, he could be a nice long term play on the wing as they try to straddle both competing and looking to the future.
- Cleveland Cavaliers – James Bouknight (SF), University of Connecticut. At #13 in the preseason mock we have the Cavaliers and Hanamichi Sakuragi, who are pretty similar to the Pacers in a lot of respects: they’ve got one foot in the playoff push door with vets like Danny Green, Mike Conley, and Al Horford on the roster, while the other foot is firmly with their young guys, chief among them Zion Williamson. While their frontcourt of the future figures to be set with Zion and Bol Bol – and their backcourt getting a boost from the selection of Theo Maledon in 2020 and the promise of Talen Horton Tucker on the wings – they could use another multifaceted wing. Enter James Bouknight, who is the first non-freshman, G League Select, or international prospect in this mock draft. Bouknight will have a lot experience relative to peers fighting for a lottery spot, as he played 28 games his freshman year at UConn (with 16 starts), and is the Huskies #1 option in his sophomore campaign. Bouknight is more of a classic wing, in that he scores well, rebounds well, is active in the passing lanes, and can be counted out as a complimentary piece, Where Bouknight struggles – and it’s why he’s not higher – is that he is not the playmaking wing that teams look for (1.3 APG across both seasons, and his TOs are at about 2 per game), and he’s had a high usage role (almost 28%) compared to what his role should be at the next level, so there is some projection here that he can succeed in a complimentary role versus being a primary or secondary option. For the Cavs, he’d be a player who can add scoring punch to the wing, and with a number of playmakers already on the team, he won’t be forced into a role that doesn’t jive with his skillset.
- New Orleans Pelicans (via Heat) – Terrence Clarke (SG), University of Kentucky. With the 14th and final pick in this first iteration of the 2021 D5 mock draft, we have the Pelicans and Brian Scalabrine's second selection via the Miami Heat. Earlier at pick #7, the Pelicans selected a shooting wing with limited playmaking potential in Zaire Williams. At #14, they go for a wing who is known more for his playmaking and ability on the ball—but who is having a brutal start to his college career as well. Terrence Clarke, along with BJ Boston, was supposed to make up one half of the 1-2 punch powering Kentucky this season. With a 1-5 start, this season has been anything but that for the Wildcats, and Clarke’s struggles have been a big reason for that. Clarke was known for his ability to distribute from the perimeter and keep teams honest with his shooting, though it certainly wasn’t his strong suit. This season, though, Clarke has had to contend with a lot of competing teammates on UK, hindering his ability to set guys up and be the primary initiator, and his shooting has been much criticized at this point (45/26/47 shooting splits…ouch). There’s also the not so little secret of some bad body language and an argumentative approach with the UK staff for Clarke that bears watching. However, Clarke does have upside that warrants consideration this high. He’s got a great frame for a shooting guard at 6’7”, 195 LBs, with length and those innate skills on the ball that are hard to teach. For the Pelicans, who it feels like have at least 1-3 lottery selections every year, they can afford to take some big swings on talent; a player like Clarke would be a homerun swing if he pans out, but he just as easily could be a bunt single.
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Larry Bird
Indiana Pacers
Starter
Posts: 1,672
Mar 5, 2024 13:29:26 GMT
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Post by Larry Bird on Dec 20, 2020 22:54:49 GMT
Nice write up!!
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Post by Alex English on Dec 20, 2020 23:02:43 GMT
Cool. Let's hope that Raptors pick stays in the lottery come draft time, then I can add my own for double lottery picks.
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Post by Bryan Colangelo on Dec 23, 2020 2:21:03 GMT
Cool. Let's hope that Raptors pick stays in the lottery come draft time, then I can add my own for double lottery picks.
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Post by Jared Montini on Dec 23, 2020 12:18:57 GMT
Cade Cunningham not going to Phoenix here hurts but love the write up. Will look more into Jalen green as well
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Post by George Gervin on May 1, 2021 16:44:41 GMT
As promised at the outset of this Mock Draft series, we have arrived at the precipice of the D5 All Star Game with approximately 53 games in the books for every D5 franchise. To say there's been some movement since the first iteration in the standings is an understatement; we have some expected teams at the bottom -- Phoenix, New York, and Washington -- and some unexpected lotto participants (looking at you, Philly and Portland), while the rest of the standings have shaped up more or less expected with a few Eastern Conference outliers.
For context, this mock is all of Round 1 plus two additional selections for franchises (SAS and GSW) that have no 1st round picks but have 2nd round selections. The following teams have no selections (as of this iteration) in either round: HOU, MIL, TOR, MIA, MEM, and LAL.
Round 1:
- PHX – Cade Cunningham (PG), Oklahoma State University. Ah the Suns—where to begin. Sporting arguably one of the worst starting lineups in the history of D5 (based on overall rating), Phoenix has opened up a five loss lead on the second place Knicks and Wizards for worst record in the League. With the flattened lottery odds, this is no longer as coveted a position to be in as years past. However, should Jared Montini hold the bottom spot wire to wire, his Suns will ensure a shot at one of these five elite guys at the top of the 2021 draft. In this mock, they select arguably the draft’s best player in Cade Cunningham. Cade’s held the top spot for most of the season amongst prospects, though one could argue both Evan Mobley and Jalen Suggs deep tourney runs – and their impact on their teams during that run – pulled them closer. Ultimately, though, when a supersized initiator who shoots 40% from 3 on six attempts per game and averaged 85% at the stripe on six attempts per game – all while clearly being his team’s focal point, night in and night out – with plus defensive play and basketball IQ is available, you shouldn’t overthink it. Yes, he could stand to improve his ball security (over 4 TOs a game) and you wish he was more assertive offensively at times, but Cade, at minimum, should be a top 2 player on a championship level team if he hits his apex, which at #1 overall is what a team should hope to grab.
- NYK – Evan Mobley (PF), University of Southern California. The Knicks, under their new GM Arvydas Sabonis , have been one of the more active teams in D5 this season on the trade market. Gone are longtime stalwarts Aaron Gordon and Ricky Rubio, and in are expiring veterans and roster morass to drive this ship towards the bottom. Their first pick under their new GM in last year’s draft appeared to add a championship caliber guard in Tyrese Halliburton who, while he did land on the dysfunctional Kings franchise, is a shoo-in for first team All-Rookie and a likely top 3 Rookie of the Year finish. What will be interesting to watch is how the Knicks decide between (barring a wild first selection) the non-Cade pool available in the top 5. In this mock, they grab the draft’s most talented big man – and maybe its highest ceiling player regardless of position –in Evan Mobley. Mobley closed his season at USC with a tremendous stretch as the central player in an unexpected Elite Eight run in the NCAA tournament. Mobley has several attractive traits in an elite prospect: insane mobility, very, very good defensive presence (4 STOCKs per game), and he comes from a pro athlete family as his father, Eric, was a Bucks first round selection in the mid-1990s. Despite that impressive background, Mobley does have some concerns. He’s not the floor spacing big – at least currently – that is coveted by teams, nor does he exhibit a lot of ability to create for himself. But, on upside alone – with size and defensive instincts that can’t be taught – the Knicks would be wise to grab him as their frontcourt anchor to complement their backcourt anchor Halliburton.
- MIN – Jalen Green (SG), G League Ignite. The bottom has finally fallen out on Walt Frazier and the Timberwolves, who are one of D5’s most snake bitten teams of the last few years. Gone are perpetually injured John Wall and rebounding machine Clint Capela – both shipped off to Western Conference foes with eyes on the playoffs – and Blake Griffin, I’m sure, would like to be on a team that isn’t fourth from the bottom. To add to the pain, their prized 2020 rookie, Deni Advija, suffered a scary looking leg injury that will rob him the rest of his rookie season and maybe some of his second year. The Wolves trades though were not all about subtraction, as they managed to snag three young guys – Thomas Bryant, Zach Collins, and Immanuel Quickley – to further bolster their young ranks. With the third pick, they grab Jalen Green, the G League Ignite’s biggest prize and a hyper athletic scorer. Green didn’t start out great during the Ignite’s season, but he really found his groove during the middle of the season and closed as that team’s best player. Green will need a strong core around him, though, as right now he’s very much a scorer only. The Timberwolves can afford to be patient with a player like Green, who peak upside could be a LaVine level scorer.
- WAS – Jalen Suggs (PG), Gonzaga University. At #4 we have the Wizards, who are trending towards a seventh straight season in the lottery under their current GM Kareem Abdul-Jabbar with none of those seasons finishing above 35 wins. As one of D5’s long term lottery residents, some of it is not their fault. Johnathan Isaac cannot stay on the floor, D’Angelo Russell is one of D5’s worst contracts, and they made an ill-advised trade out of the chance to select lead guards like Trae Young and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in 2018 for a bunch of second round selections and Thon Maker. However, the Wizards do have Bam Adebayo, and with the selection of Devin Vassell last year – a player in the Spurs development system who figures to be a very good 3 and D wing down the road – adding a more pure PG to the mix in Suggs could really round out their starting 5. It’s unlikely any other player helped their draft stock more than Jalen Suggs. While the Zags didn’t win it all, his Final Four buzzer beater vs UCLA was the tournaments “One Shining Moment,” and Suggs appears to have everything you’d want in a lead guard: poise, edge, basketball IQ, and the ability to get to his spots. There’s still questions about the legitimacy of his shooting translating, as he really fell off from his inferno start, and defensively he needs work, but for the Wizards, this would be a solid selection.
- LAC – Johnathan Kuminga (SF), G League Ignite. In the first iteration, the Clippers reigned supreme having been a regular fixture in the lottery the last couple of seasons. Mike Krzyzewski made the bold move to swap his 2019 1st Round selection, RJ Barrett, for the polarizing LaMelo Ball. While Ball did go down with a wrist injury several weeks ago, his impact on the Hornets was undeniable, and while Barrett is having a very solid second season with the Knicks, the Clippers appear to have made the correct call in the trade. The rest of their roster leaves something to be desired though; Obi Toppin has been buried on the Knicks bench (probably thanks to Thibs compulsion for playing guys 35+ MPG and his woeful defense), and Vernon Carey has seen some action but not a ton. They could really use another marquee perimeter player, and at #5, they grab a high upside wing in Johnathan Kuminga, the other G League Ignite one and done star. Unlike Jalen Green, Kuminga got off to an insane start at the G League level, looking like a prospect more than capable of the physical rigors of playing in the NBA. However, as the G League season progressed, Kuminga started to tail off from his insane start. Of the top five prospects in this draft, he likely needs the most development and seasoning; his shooting, while it appears okay in form, in practice is a real red flag (38% FG and just 24% from 3), and he doesn’t appear to have the vision (a 1:1 AST to ratio) that teams covet in wings nowadays. Ultimately, though, the draft does have a drop off after these first five prospects, and for the Clippers – who just need talent that can complement Ball – he should prove to be the start of rebuilding their wing corps.
- OKC – Keon Johnson (SG), University of Tennessee. The Thunder and Kevin Hollis this year have mimicked their real life counterparts to an eerily similar degree: trot out a roster of the future and somehow still not end up in the bottom five records. They’ve also been very quiet this season, not engaging in any trades or much activity to swap out pieces; instead the focus has been on giving minutes to the young guys – like James Wiseman, Wendell Carter Jr., and Malik Beasley. While I’m sure they’d love to snag one of the top two PGs available, they also leave much to be desired on the wings. Beasley is a scorer, but he’s also a volatile player who if he’s your top scorer there is a real ceiling on your team. Kevin Knox appears trending towards bust status (or at the very least needs a change of scenery from the Knicks), and they have a few other wings – such as Keita Bates-Diop and Torrey Craig – that are firmly in the “bench/role player” category. Enter Keon Johnson, who would immediately step in to this OKC roster as their highest upside wing with real defensive chops, creation ability, and athleticism that puts him in rarified air for a prospect. While his shooting leaves something to be desired (44/27/70 splits), his form isn’t completely broken, and he exhibits a level of feel for the game that should help his transition to the next level. For OKC, he’d be a long term piece who could stay in the backcourt or, if he continues to grow, a two way wing that every team covets.
- PHI – Franz Wagner (SF), University of Michigan. With the seventh pick, we have one of last year’s surprise squads, Allen Iverson 's Philadelphia 76ers. They went from a very competitive series versus the now juggernaut – but at the time still impressive – Brooklyn Nets in the first round of the Eastern playoffs to firmly out of the playoff picture. Their roster is pretty solid, with guys that are real current contributors – such as Malcolm Brogdon and Kyle Kuzma – and guys you can see as carrying the franchise mantle in the future, such as Michael Porter Jr., PJ Washington, and Desmond Bane. Currently there isn’t a player on the roster who you’d say is a lead guard to play with those aforementioned young guys, as their main lead guard – Dennis Schroeder – was just shipped with perpetual malcontent Dwight Howard to Charlotte for Nerlens Noel and expiring contracts. However, with PGs being a very deep position and one that has become quite fungible in today’s game, one could argue the 76ers should focus on adding another wing to that group who can complement MPJs scoring prowess and Washington’s all-around game. Franz Wagner is just the type of wing to throw into the young core. His strengths are pretty evident in his play: very, very good passer for a wing, strong defender, fundamentally sound from his time growing up in Europe and coming up through that development track, and a respectable shooter (48/34/84 splits on decent volumes). He’s also had the benefit of playing for a very good college program in Michigan, with the last year being under the tutelage of Juwan Howard, and that kind of exposure and testing in a tough league like the Big Ten should prove extremely beneficial as he transitions to the League. For Philly, he offers a wing who can create, defend, and chip in with scoring—all in all, a very well rounded prospect that can be a great chess piece now off the bench and in the future with their young core.
- DET – Jaden Springer (PG), University of Tennessee. The Pistons and Chauncey Billups check in at #8, which for them is pretty far down the lottery compared to the last couple of years where the top 3 became synonymous with “who is Detroit going to add this year?” They have their frontcourt set for the foreseeable future in Sabonis and Ayton as a Two Towers setup, and with the recent selections of Anthony Edwards and Keldon Johnson, the wings appear to be in good hands for the future as well. Where one could argue they had a miss in recent drafts is at PG—Coby White was benched for a time this year in Chicago, and while he is definitely a PG capable of scoring, he has been a bottom 10 player defensively in the entire League and he’s probably at his best as a bench microwave versus a starter. Jaden Springer, on the other hand, would be the kind of PG that could help launch Detroit into regular playoff contention. As a bigger PG (6’4”, 205 lbs), he’s unlikely to be pushed around at the NBA level, and he’s a PG who can not only create for himself and others, but he offers the kind of floor spacing that Detroit currently doesn’t have in the backcourt as a 44% shooter from 3. More importantly, though, Springer is a really good defensive guard, and with the struggles that both White and Edwards have exhibited on that end in their young NBA careers, adding a guard who can both defend and shoot should really help the lineup balance for the Pistons.
- DAL – Scottie Barnes (F), Florida State University. With the ninth pick, we have Danny Longley and the Mavericks, who earlier in this season – like Portland later on in this lottery– were firmly in the playoff mix before an injury to Ja Morant derailed that. The Mavericks have a couple of interesting options and routes they could go: they have a likely franchise player in Morant in the backcourt, an intriguing wing in Darius Bazley, and several frontcourt pieces – Naz Reid, Ivica Zubac, and Daniel Gafford – to mix and match for a future big man rotation. They could be a landing spot for this draft’s best supporting player, Corey Kispert, but instead they opt for another intriguing wing in Scottie Barnes. Barnes is the latest in the recent NBA pipeline of FSU wings, following in the footsteps of Devin Vassell, Patrick Williams, Terrence Mann, Jonathan Isaac, Malik Beasley, and Dwayne Bacon before him as the next FSU wing to be drafted. Barnes differs from many of his wing predecessors at FSU in that his strength was not freakish team or individual defense, shooting prowess, or scoring potential, but rather facilitation. For his size, Barnes is a freakish passer—one who can make passes he shouldn’t be able to at his size, but it’s clear he has the vision and basketball IQ to be, if not a solid primary initiator, a definitive supporting initiator off a main ball handler. Where Barnes needs work is his handle (very, very TO prone) and for a guy his size he rebounds like the Nets version of Brook Lopez…leaving you scratching your head how he could be this size yet this bad at rebounding. For Dallas, he could be a great foil to Morant as a great secondary creator who doesn’t necessarily need to score to be impactful, and one who coming through the FSU system will have sound defensive principles to build on in the NBA.
- DEN – Jalen Johnson (SF), Duke University. Well this is a weird entry at the tenth selection: Alex English and the Denver Nuggets, formerly perennial powers in the Western Conference and a fixture deep into the League schedule, have spent this season as one of the League’s most active squads on the trade market with a singular goal in mind…assets. Whether it is young players like Talen Horton-Tucker, Jaylen Nowell, and Moses Brown, or a trove of draft picks (almost 20 over the next four drafts), the Nuggets have been accumulating quite a stockpile. Last year, to kickoff their rebuild they went for a frontcourt anchor in Onyeka Okongwu. It remains to be seen how OO matures and helps the Hawks rotation, but he’s at least one position potentially cared for in the future. The Nuggets could use an infusion on the wings though, as Aaron Nesmith has looked anything but ready, and after that the wings you’d think are long term pieces begin to really thin. Now we come to Jalen Johnson, who personally I’d argue is this draft’s most polarizing prospect. It’s not just his game itself that causes debate – he’s clearly got passing acumen you cannot teach, yet his first step leaves a lot to be desired, but then with his size you can see the next potential “big-wing initiator” that has begun to pop up in recent drafts– but it’s his approach to the game and attitude that foment discussion as well. He left two High School teams abruptly, and then bailed (no other way to put it) on Duke when it was clear they were going to miss the tournament. He will have to answer for those instances, and his responses will likely be telling in how teams evaluate if he’s worth the risk. For the Nuggets, he offers a skillset that arguably only the newly acquired THT currently presents on their roster: a big initiator with the frame to be a defensive disruptor and malleable piece. If he pans out, he could be the kind of piece that teams are now shifting focus towards for the wing and might be the Nuggets future anchor in that corps.
- POR – Sharife Cooper (PG), University of Auburn. Similar to the 76ers at the seventh pick, with the eleventh pick we have one of last season’s other surprise squads in Jerry West and Portland, who delivered easily one of the biggest surprises of the year in ousting the Rockets in Round 1 of the Western Conference playoffs. They started out on a tear this season – at one point holding the pole position in the West – before a rough schedule stretch and improvements to rosters of other Western Conference foes began to push the Trailblazers down the standings. After trading Kyle Lowry and clearing a boatload of cap for this offseason, the Blazers have fully embraced a reset by handing the keys to Poku the Great and Tyrese Maxey. While they have already have Maxey – who projects at best as a defensive PG, offensive SG—and the maligned Terrence Davis in the backcourt, they look to grab the fourth PG in the top 10 of this mock in Sharife Cooper. Cooper only played twelve games at Auburn before injuries shut him down, but in those twelve games he was the definition of a firecracker: 20 PPG, 8 APG, 4 RPG, and getting to the line an absurd 9 times a game (which for the college ranks is pretty rare). His ability to slip through the bigs despite his size and get to the rack is an elite trait, as is his passing vision—much of which evokes comparisons to another smaller PG, Trae Young. His poor defense also evokes Young comparisons—and not in a good way. However, where the Young comps begin to fall apart is with shooting, where Cooper posted an unbalanced line of 39/22/82 splits. His FTA and percentages portend a player who should be able to shoot from the NBA consistently and with volume, but if he can’t improve that at the next level, he may be more bench, change of pace facilitator than starting PG. For Portland, he’d be a high upside swing with the hope that he lands in an organization with a strong core and developmental network to improve his deficiencies and maximize his strengths.
- CHI – Corey Kispert (SF), Gonzaga University. The Chicago Bulls check in at the twelfth pick, far higher in the draft rankings than they’d like to be for sure. Shane Battier received a staggering blow in the offseason with the departure of Kawhi Leonard only a few weeks after making an all-in trade for Nikola Vucevic as a last ditch carrot to keep Leonard. The Bulls this season are potentially faced with a second straight offseason of nail biting, FA waiting, with Damian Lillard holding a player option, and to boot they’ve stumbled through the season thus far. In came players like Draymond Green and Kyle Lowry to try to find a winning formula, which has proved elusive for the Bulls. Should the Bulls keep this selection, they’re likely looking for an impact player who is ready to provide some contributions. Few players fit that bill more than Corey Kispert of Gonzaga, who, as a four year player at a premier college program with elite shooting skill and high floor status as a role player, should be able to come in immediately and provide spacing for the Bulls to operate. Kispert won’t need to be the focal point like he was at Gonzaga – which would help improve his chances at contributing while masking some of the athletic deficiencies that loomed large in the Finals versus Baylor and UNC he participated in. This might be too low risk for a team like Chicago this high—especially as they own neither their 2022 nor 2024 first round selections – but a player like Kispert seems as sure a bet to produce, which is ultimately what the Bulls need to wring out of their picks given their win-now roster.
- NOP (via MIA) – Alperen Sengun (F/C), Besiktas (Turkish League). A regular participant in the lottery selections shows up at #13 in Brian Scalabrine and the Pelicans; this year, though, it’s not their selection, but the Heat’s pick, that lands them in the lottery as the Pelicans cling to a playoff seed in the West. The Pelicans have a lot of depth up and down the roster—rookie scale players like Derrick White, Trae Young, Josh Green, De’Anthony Melton, and Tyus Jones in the backcourt, Chuma Okeke and Romeo Langford on the wings, and the trio of Brandon Clarke, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Xavier Tillman Sr. up front has the Pelicans set up for the future. Add in veterans like Gordon Hayward and John Wall, and the Pelicans are in a pretty solid position to both be competitive while maintain a forward looking perspective. In this iteration, they start the international selections in a solid international pool with Alperen Sengun, the Turkish teenage wonder. Sengun is not your prototypical big in today’s game – he’s not a good shooter, he isn’t a vertical spacer, and he does most of his damage 15 feet and in. However, Sengun straight up produces as an 18 year old big: 31 GP (all starts), 20/9.5/2.5/1.5/1.5 on 64% FG and 80% FT in 28 MPG. He can really pass for a big his size as well, which has led some scouts to invoke a Jokic comparison (rather unfairly), but it’s hard not to look at the production and figure it will translate in the right situation in the NBA. For the Pelicans, they can afford to gamble, and in this draft, Sengun represents one of those Poku type moonshots (with way more production track record) that at this stage in the lottery isn’t a huge risk.
- IND – Moses Moody (SG/SF), University of Arkansas. At #14 are Larry Bird and the Pacers, who have clawed their way back out from a rough start to be on the cusp of playoff participation in the Eastern Conference bloodbath. They’ve made a few moves around the edges during the season – save for one trade where Eric Bledsoe was shipped away – and come into this upcoming offseason primed with a ton of cap space to play with. While they will have some players to consider extensions for – such as Jakob Poeltl, Caris LeVert, and Dario Saric – they figure to be a major free agent player. From a draft standpoint, Indy appears to have hit on another early second rounder in the Celt’s Peyton Pritchard, but with the injury history that LeVert carries (not to mention what price tag he may carry) adding a player like Moody, who was mocked the first time to the Pacers, would be a nice insurance policy. A thicker wing at 6’6”, 205 LBs for a freshman, Moody finished strong during the regular season for Elite Eight bound Arkansas. While Moody unfortunately disappeared for most of the tournament run, they arguably would not have been as high a seed or been as strong a threat without the 18/6/2 line Moody put up in SEC play. Yes, Moody really should focus on improving his ability to create for others and cut down on the TOs, but for an Indiana team with a lot of depth and youth, he could be another piece to the puzzle and a plug ‘n’ play should LeVert continue to be dogged by injuries.
- PHX (via LAL) – James Bouknight (SF), University of Connecticut. At #15 we have Jared Montini 's Suns again, this time via the Lakers pick that is on the precipice of dropping back into the lottery. The Suns in this iteration landed their franchise center piece at #1 in Cade Cunningham. However, with a roster that is easily the most barren in D5 as far as talent, they should be focused on BPA from here on out. Enter James Bouknight, who should be the start of the wing ranks for the Suns. Bouknight started off pretty good this season for the Huskies before tailing off (especially from 3) as UConn entered Big East play. Bouknight is more of a classic wing, in that he scores well, rebounds well, is active in the passing lanes, and can be counted out as a complimentary piece, Bouknight, unfortunately, didn’t really dispel concerns about creation for others with his play this season, as he sported a negative AST:TO ratio (1.8 to 2.8) and as a player who figures to be a secondary or third scorer at the next level, it’d help if he also wasn’t a Black Hole once he gets the ball. For the Suns, though, he’s one of the more proven options remaining that figures to be a solid selection which, given the recent track record of Suns draftees, should be what they’re looking for mid-round.
- NOP – Davion Mitchell (PG), Baylor University. With the 16th selection, Brian Scalabrine 's Pelicans check in again with their own selection. Earlier at pick #13, the Pelicans took a moonshot with the teenaged Turkish big, Alperen Sengun. At #16, they go for a player who probably had one of the best closing stretches between conference tournament and NCAA tournament in recent memory in Davion Mitchell. As a senior with 94 games under his belt at the college level, Mitchell should be able to come in Day 1 and provide real minutes for a team. His best attributes are his defensive skill and tenacity (it wouldn’t be surprising if he competes for an All NBA Defensive team spot at multiple points in his career) combined with very good shooting touch (38% from 3 over his college career). For the Pelicans, who have a wealth of talent on their roster that is on their rookie scale contract, they could opt to go for another gamble, but the potential to add a player not unlike their Brandon Clarke selection from two years ago – veteran college player with very clear strengths and the type of high floor to be a real contributor – could be a great solidifier for their bench, or be a useful trade carrot down the road.
- DEN (via TOR) – Josh Giddey (PG), Adelaide 36ers (Australian NBL). In the lottery, Alex English 's Nuggets started their wing rebuild with a big initiator in Jalen Johnson; with the Raptors selection from the Pascal Siakim deal, they grab another big initiator, this time one from the Land Down Under, Josh Giddey. As a barely 18 year old prospect playing in the NBL, Giddey has been a stat stuffer in the box score: 11 PPG, 7 RPG, 7 APG, and 1 SPG in 23 GP (all starts) for the Adelaide 36ers. He’s also an unusually big PG at 6’8”, 210 LBs, and in the vein of the supersized initiator that teams have been hunting for in recent years. Giddey does have some things he needs to iron out – particularly his shooting, which is an unsightly 42/31/65 splits—and physically he’s going to need time to be able to withstand the rigors of the NBA. At this stage in the draft, though, as one of the youngest prospects available with real production in a professional league, he’s worth the dice roll – whether he comes over the NBA this year or next – as a long term play for a Nuggets team with plenty of draft capital to take some shots.
- IND (via MEM) – Day’Ron Sharpe (C), University of North Carolina. With the last selection in the lottery, Larry Bird went for Caris LeVert insurance in Moses Moody on the wings. With their second first round selection via the Bojan Bogdanovic trade with Memphis, the Pacers grab some Poeltl/Richaun Holmes/Jarrett Allen insurance in Day’Ron Sharpe of UNC. Sharpe is a gigantic big at 7’0”, 270 LBs and he uses that size to his advantage; at UNC, he averaged a whopping 7.5 RPG in just 19 MPG, and he added 1.5 APG, 2 STOCKs, and 9.5 PG to boot. A fair question to raise with Sharpe is why he wasn’t on the floor more given his impact – especially as he wasn’t incredibly foul prone in those minutes – but one could chalk it up to the dumpster fire that was UNC last season in Roy Williams’s swan song. It could also be conditioning, as he is a massive human being but probably could be just as effective at 255 LBs versus his current 270 Lbs. For the Pacers, Sharpe is a big who will need some time to get adjusted (bigs always take longer to develop) to the NBA pace; however, given the potential cap outlays they could have at the center position in the next two seasons – Holmes and Poeltl are both underrated players who may get more money than expected, and Allen figures to fetch decent money as well – they could use a low cost depth option that exhibits the potential to be a starting level center down the line.
- SAC – Kai Jones (F/C), University of Texas. At #19 we have Amare Stoudemire's Kings, who usually are wheeling and dealing their selections as opposed to using them. However, being Stepien ruled for 2022, the Kings are forced to at least hold onto this pick until they’re on the clock. With their current roster construction, they have a mix of veterans on the wrong side of 30, players in their prime, and some intriguing young role players. Now, we all know this roster could change on a dime with the Kings’ penchant for trading, but one area where the Kings could look to shore up is in the frontcourt. Willie Cauley Stein has been the definition of a journeyman big, Kelly Olynyk is okay, and after that the frontcourt becomes guys firmly on the back nine of their NBA careers. Kai Jones would be a long term, high risk, high reward type pick befitting of the Kings recent history towards taking swings. Jones is arguably the highest upside big in this class not named Evan Mobley. He’s extremely fluid, has very good form on his jumper, and you can see the outlines of an elite 3 and D center at the next level. However, Jones is the definition of raw—he has not played basketball that long, and he definitely had many moments where it was clear he just doesn’t process the game quick enough to react. For the Kings, at this stage in the draft, Jones is a worthwhile draft and stash. They don’t need him right now to contribute in their playoff battles, and if he pans out, he could be a Myles Turner type center with the ability to be a defensive terror and floor spacer anchoring the middle. Or he becomes a really enticing trade piece for the some distant deal for a star.
- WAS (via SAS) – Jared Butler (PG), Baylor University. The Wizards and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar check in at #20 via the Spurs pick, which is the last one outstanding from the legendary JR Wiles draft hating days. At #3, the Wizards went for a consummate PG prospect in Jalen Suggs to help flesh out their starting five. At #20, they grab another PG to serve as the third guard in the rotation with Suggs and D’Angelo Russell in Jared Butler. While Butler isn’t as defensively sound as his teammate Davion Mitchell, he can more than handle his own on that end of the floor (over 2 SPG his Junior year, with 1.5 SPG averaged over his 94 games at Baylor). He’s also the kind of PG who can command the floor, providing playmaking (5 APG), scoring (16.7 PPG), shooting (47/41/79 splits on 6 Attempts from 3 for that 41% split), and workhorse minutes (30 MPG for the Bears). Butler can stand to be more careful handling the ball, as he’s quite TO prone, and he doesn’t get the line as much as he could given his physicality and smarts driving to the rim, but for the Wizards, if Suggs and Butler pan out, this is a good problem to have: two starting caliber PGs that ensure little dropoff in play at the position when one isn’t on the floor.
- UTA – Isiah Jackson (C), University of Kentucky. At #21 we have Tim Duncan 's Jazz, who have made quite a meteoric rise in the standings this season after years languishing in the lottery. Some of those assets acquired through recent drafts, trades and FA – such as Zach Collins and Thomas Bryant – were used to boost their playoff aspirations this season, including the additions of veterans like Clint Capela and Ricky Rubio. The Jazz under their predecessor GM did not have a very strong draft track record, with far more misses (Marvin Bagley, Jarrett Culver) than hits (Collin Sexton), and their latest GM spent most of the 2020 draft trading back from the fifth pick to acquire as many assets as possible before trading back into Round 1 to select Tyrell Terry as a future bench shooter. In 2021, they go for a long term play up front in Isiah Jackson, who ironically became the hallmark prospect amongst the latest Kentucky recruiting class over several more highly regarded prospects. Jackson’s biggest strength is his supreme size (6’10”, 7’3” wingspan) coupled with elite shot blocking skill (2.6 BPG in just 20 MPG) and defensive prowess. He is a player with very good mobility for his size as well, with the FT attempt rate and form that usually portend an ability to expand shooting range out to the NBA 3 point line. However, Jackson is far from ready to contribute in an NBA setting; he’s insanely foul prone (think Triple J level at MSU bad for foul rate) and it’s clear he can’t do much to get rid of the ball when he gets in trouble (negative AST:TO ratio by a wide margin). For the Jazz, he can be a useful big to throw in the mix off the bench behind Capela—one who can ensure no dropoff in rim protection—and maybe become a more useful big in time than Marvin Bagley has been in his short career.
- CLE – Chris Duarte (G/W), University of Oregon. At #22 we have the Cleveland Cavaliers and Hanamichi Sakuragi , who are perhaps the most ardent supporters of contend, contend, and contend – costs be damned. Amassing a roster featuring two of the League’s highest salaried players – Al Horford and Mike Conley – with a prime Zach LaVine and rising star Zion Williamson has yielded a team more than fighting for homecourt advantage in the early rounds of the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Cavs also have developed a track record – despite their visible disdain for teams building through the draft – of identifying talent in this range, such as Immanuel Quickley, Theo Maledon, Talen Horton-Tucker, and Isaac Bonga. This year, they snag another player who could prove to outplay his draft position in Chris Duarte of Oregon. Duarte, if he was a younger prospect (will be 24 by the time next season starts), would be much higher in this draft—statistically speaking, he offers much of what is expected of a modern wing. Scoring? Check (17 PPG). Versatility? Check (4.6 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.9 SPG, and 0.8 BPG). Shooting? Check (53/42/81 splits on 66% TS and 63% EFG). Beyond his draft age, the only other significant negative for Duarte is he doesn’t get to the line very frequently for a player with his talent and skill. For the Cavs, he fits the ethos of their philosophy: a ready-made player who should be able to step in Day 1 to provide minutes to a contending team.
- CHA – Ziaire Williams (F), Stanford University. With the 23rd pick we have James Kay 's Charlotte Hornets, defending D5 champions and perennial end of first round participants in the draft. They’ve arguably had the most impactful trades this season for any team, as gone are mainstays Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Nerlens Noel for the likes of James Harden, Dennis Schroeder, 3-6 Latvia, and John Collins. While the Hornets have revamped their backcourt at both starting spots and with the signings of Ty Jerome and PJ Dozier for the bench, they still could use some upside bench assistance on the wings, where at the moment Rui Hachimura stands alone. A prospect like Ziaire Williams normally wouldn’t be available this far down in a draft, but a confluence of factors makes him a likely slide contender. First, he’s had a very slow recovery from a leg injury suffered his last year of high school that stretched well into his lone season at Stanford. It sapped some of his trademark athleticism and defensive effectiveness, which raises flags on if this will have long term ramifications. Second, Stanford had easily the weirdest college basketball season under COVID, as they did not play a single home game (you read that right) due to rules in the Bay Area on sports participation. As such, Stanford was on the road the entire season and one has to wonder the toll that took on the players – particularly one like Williams as a freshman overcoming a significant injury. Third, this draft is fairly deep and players with question marks will undoubtedly slide—leading to instance like this where a player most had pre-season as a top 8 selection landing in the 20s. For the Hornets, Williams would be a dice roll that he can regain his pre-injury form and become the floor spacing, defensive wing that he looked well on his way to being while providing some bench depth behind Khris Middleton.
- LAC (via MIL) – Roko Prkacin (F), Cibona (Adriatic League). Checking in at #24 are the Clippers and Mike Krzyzewski , who have this selection via the Robert Covington salary dump by the Bucks. Early in the lottery, the Bucks grabbed a multi-dimensional young wing in the G League Ignite’s Jonathan Kuminga; at the end of Round 1, they grab another multi-dimensional wing in Roko Prkacin of Croatia. Prkacin was a prospect that, pre-draft, was pegged as a potential lottery selection; an 18 year old with a well-rounded game who had shown real contributions in multiple leagues, he came into the year with a lot of momentum behind his draft stock. While Prkacin had a very solid 49 games this year across Adriatic League and other Euro play, he doesn’t have numbers that jump of the page, averaging 14 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2 APG, and 1.5 STOCKs per game on 51/36/63 shooting splits. The numbers don’t tell the whole picture with Prkacin, though, who was named team captain despite being 18 years old and demonstrated a willingness to mix it up on the court with opponents. For the Clippers, he’d be another Swiss Army knife wing like the Kuminga lottery selection—one who is another solid complement for LaMelo Ball as the Clippers build their future core.
- NYK (via HOU) – Nah’Shon Hyland (SG), Virginia Commonwealth University. With the 25th pick, we have the New York Knicks and Arvydas Sabonis via the Luke Kennard and Kendrick Nunn trade from earlier this season. At the top of the draft, the Knicks went for their frontcourt anchor of the future in Evan Mobley. This far down, they could look to add a wing or a different guard; in this iteration, the Knicks go for a fast rising prospect in Nah’Shon Hyland of VCU. Hyland has been as prospect who has flown under the radar; his freshman season last year at VCU didn’t portend the kind of sophomore bump he’d experience this year with the Rams, and now the cat is out of the bag. Hyland’s best skills are his mix of scoring (19.5 PPG), defense (1.9 SPG), and shooting volume (37% from 3 on a 0.547 3P Attempt Rate, which is very high) all put in the package of an athletic guard. Next to Tyrese Halliburton for the Knicks, he’d be a guard capable of defending smaller, quick guards while still providing necessary floor spacing. He is on the lighter side at 170 LBs, which presents an issue with this Knicks backcourt of potentially getting bulldozed by stronger guards, and he doesn’t take care of the ball as well as he could, but this far down in the draft, he offers two very good to near elite skills as a shooter and defender to be worth the swing in Round 1 for a Knicks team looking to stock up on talent.
- PHX (via GSW) – Neemias Queta (C), Utah State University. With their third selection in the first round, Jared Montini and the Suns round out the position bases after adding a guard (Cade Cunningham) and wing (James Bouknight) earlier in the draft by going for Mo Bamba’s replacement, Neemias Queta. As it has already been expounded in earlier selections, the Suns frankly need talent where they can get it, whenever available. This far down, they could go for young players – such as BJ Boston or Usman Garuba – to maximize the potential aspect while on their first round deal, but if Cade proves to be as good as everyone thinks he will, the Suns won’t be bad for long. Queta is much closer to being a center ready to deliver, and his fit in a Cade centric Suns offense would be really fascinating. Queta excels at the usual center expectations – solid rebounder (10.1), very, very good defender (3.3 BPG, 1.1 SPG) and an efficient scorer (60% TS, 56% FG)—all while doing so in a 7’1”, 7’4” wingspan package. Where Queta adds a unique dimension is as a passer – simply put, he is a playmaker as a center averaging almost 3 APG. He had several 5 or more assist games while at Utah State, and was neck and neck with their guards for APG. For the Suns, while he isn’t a shooting center that most teams look for, he is a unique center as a playmaking 5 with real defensive chops who—if paired with Cade – could provide two very much plus playmakers at their positions.
- ATL – Aaron Henry (SF), Michigan State University. At #27 are the Hawks and Jay Z , who have been one of two surprise teams in the Eastern Conference pushing the two headed behemoth at the top of the standings with a blend of veterans, young stars, and solid role players driving their ship. The Hawks sneakily could be a team primed for a move before the deadline, as they’re not far off of 9 year max money for next offseason; however, at the moment, this mock projects them adding a wing who figures to be ready to play in Aaron Henry. Personally (breaking the fourth wall here), I think Henry is going to be great having come through the MSU gauntlet over the last three seasons and showing real improvement year to year as a physical wing who checks many boxes for the modern NBA wing. Henry is a willing facilitator and passer (3.6 APG), while also offering plus defense (2.6 STOCKs per game), rebounding (5.6 RPG), and scoring (15.5 PPG). Where Henry has struggled in his MSU career is from distance, as he’s hovered around 30% from 3 across his time at MSU. However, the fact his FT% is relatively good (76%) would seem to imply that his form isn’t completely broken and perhaps needs some slight tweaks to be more reliable from that distance. At the outset, though, Henry would be a boon for the Hawks off the bench as versatile wing ready to provide minutes to a contender – especially with the Hawks having just six players signed for the next season.
- ORL – Marcus Bagley (SF), Arizona State University. Holding the 28th selection are the Orlando Magic and Steve Nash , who have been on a tear to say the least this season. At one point, the Magic were on a 14 game sprint to briefly hold the top of the Eastern Conference over the two perceived title favorites in all of D5, all while retooling their roster around Rudy Gobert to maximize depth and versatility. The Magic could go in a few directions this far down the draft; they hold Bird Rights on Evan Fournier, but one could argue Jordan Clarkson – an acquisition from last season – is the better player and more valuable to extend. However, he will likely command more than what the Magic are projected to have available, and should he end up walking, they will need some long term bench depth to fill the ranks. Enter Marcus Bagley, who by virtue of his last name will get skepticism in the draft process. Unlike his brother, Marcus is a smaller player who is actually more suited for the wing (looking at you, Vivek, trying to play Marvin as a wing…) with his fluidity and athleticism. Bagley’s best traits beyond his plus size for a wing are his willingness to shoot from distance (6 Attempts per game) while making a solid clip (35%). He’s also a solid rebounder for a wing averaging 6.2 RPG at Arizona State. Where Bagley has issues – though not to the same degree as his brother – is on defense, where he is a player who routinely gets roasted. Until he comes around on that end of the floor, his ceiling will be a floor spacing wing that you have to hide. This far down in the draft, though, he is a player with upside that would be worth the gamble for a team like Orlando, who have the depth where he wouldn’t need to contribute immediately and they can take a wait-and-see approach with his development.
- BKN – Joel Ayayi (G), Gonzaga University. With the penultimate selection in the first round, we have the first of two D5 superteams in Andrei Kirilenko 's Brooklyn Nets. Winners of the Kawhi Leonard free agency sweepstakes last offseason, the Nets made a significant all-in move in the first half of the season, sending away young bigs John Collins and Kristaps Porzingis to the Hornets for Kawhi sidekick Paul George. The Nets window may have shrunk based on the age of their core, but they are arguably the League’s most daunting opponent when everything is clicking, as they offer shooting, playmaking, and elite perimeter defense in a League that has become much more a guard and wing game. While the Nets foremost concern over the next few seasons will be managing the cap responsibly to ensure their core can stay together, they will need cheap options to fill out the roster. Joel Ayayi, as a college guard playing for a perennial championship level basketball program in Gonzaga, would be a versatile bench guard that should have no issues with the pressure of playing in a supercharged environment like this Nets contending stretch. Ayayi offers a lot of strengths as a prospect – he’s an elite rebounder for a guard at 7 RPG in 31 MPG, and he’s a very effective shooter (58/40/78 shooting splits on 67% TS and 65% EFG) from the backcourt. The reason Ayayi is down the board this far is threefold: first, he’s an older prospect at almost 22, so there will be a perceived lack of upside left for him to develop further. Second, coming from a Gonzaga team where he didn’t need to create much for himself and had some other elite players around him, will Ayayi be as successful outside of that ecosystem? I’d argue the Nets are one of the perfect situations for him as he won’t have a ton of pressure to create on his own, but there does need to be a “Gonzaga system inflation” asterisk put next to Ayayi till proven otherwise. And lastly, for all his immense physical gifts as a 6’5”, 7’0” wingspan PG, he is not nearly the defender he could be. Sure, he gets some steals but for a guy with his physical profile, he should be a dominant defender in the backcourt. For Brooklyn, he figures to be a low ceiling player that, at the very least, they should feel comfortable knowing they’re going to get a likely bench player, which with their cap situation getting one on a good contract for long term is paramount.
- BOS – Usman Garuba (F), Real Madrid (Spanish League). Closing out Round 1 is the other D5 superpower in Ian Noble 's Boston Celtics, who sport D5’s highest rated starting five ever and the weight of expectations of the Conference Finals at minimum, if not D5 Finals, hanging over their franchise like the Sword of Damocles. The Celtics are at a critical juncture beyond just the pressure to make the Finals – they face an impending cap crunch that, if it doesn’t break up this core six this offseason, will surely do so next season. Boston needs to balance the need of adding players who could help but also look for high upside plays when they present themselves. Based on how this mock iteration shook out, an upside play has fallen in their laps with Usman Garuba. If you looked at a 2021 mock draft from most sites two or more years ago, Garuba was a name regularly mocked in the top 5. He was a player who physically destroyed opponents in Spain at the lower levels, and the anticipation built that with the first team at Real Madrid he would continue to impose his will on opponents with his freakish combination of strength and athleticism. However, what’s actually occurred is the opposite – Garuba has stalled out, and some of those hopes of a physical defensive forward with the ability to be an elite NBA defender have begun to fade significantly. Not all is lost for Garuba – who though he only averaged 4.5 PPG and 4.5 RPG in 17 MPG with Real this season across 74 games – as he still shows he can play with the best athletes in the world given his raw physical talent. But whoever drafts him will need to show serious patience, as he’s probably years away from being a regular contributor. For Boston, there’s really nothing to lose by taking Garuba this far down; if he regains that form which made him a coveted prospect years ago, this pick will look like a steal. If he becomes something in between his current underwhelming play and former dominance, that’s still a defensive bench big with the ability to defend across a wide range of positions, which is a player contending teams always crave.
Round 2 (teams with 2nd round picks only):- 44. SAS (via MIA) – Herbert Jones (F), University of Alabama. With the 44th – and their only selection – in the 2021 draft, George Gervin 's Spurs are at a crossroads. They had an underwhelming start to the 2020 season, hovering around the 7-10 range in the Western Conference until a trade of Rui Hachimura for Christian Wood sparked a run up the standings—at one point as high as 2nd in the West – that has firmly secured the Spurs in the playoff running in the West. Heading into next season, the Spurs have a lot of roster spots secured in both the starting lineup and the bench. However, one can never have enough wings, and the Spurs current bench crop featuring the underperforming Josh Okogie as its lone signed player leaves a lot to be desired. Herbert Jones of Alabama figures to be an easy bet to plug into many bench environments; while he’s on the older side for a senior prospect at 23 yrs old, he’s one who is the definition of versatile. He stuffed the stat sheet with 11 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.7 SPG, and 1.1 BPG on 45/35/71 shooting splits. Jones is also a defensively sound wing, which is always a plus when talking about a bench player. He could stand to be much, much more careful with the ball, as he’s highly turnover prone, and he does get foul happy. This late in the draft though, Jones offers some very good to elite skill level in passing, defensive IQ, and rebounding that any team would love to have on their bench. For the Spurs, he’s a low risk proposition this late to provide crucial bench depth.
- 49. GSW (via SAS) – BJ Boston (SG), University of Kentucky. Checking in at #49 are Chris Mullin 's Warriors, who had a very active draft last year with five selections – including four in Round 1 – that really beefed up their bench. The focus of that draft was on a mix of wings (Jaden McDaniels, Paul Reed, Jahmi’us Ramsey), a lead guard (Cole Anthony) and a true center (Isaiah Stewart). The Warriors, however, did not grab a true shooting guard, and beyond Joe Harris – who was the main backup to the now oft injured Klay Thompson—the pickings are slim. BJ Boston this far down the draft would be the kind of low risk, high reward selection a contending team like GSW should make. If Boston ever lives up to his 5* recruit status and figures it out, he could be a really impactful scorer. If he doesn’t pan out, it’s a second round pick with minimal financial repercussions on the cap at a point where the hit rate tends to be low anyway this far down the draft. Boston, though, would easily be the highest upside prospect this far down given his pedigree and having been part of the Kentucky NBA factory under Calipari.
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Post by Alex English on May 1, 2021 17:59:44 GMT
Damn, how long did it take to write that? So much effort.
I feel the need to correct you though, I have 23 picks in the next four drafts including 8 for this year. So if anyone is going to want to move down or trade into this draft, I'm your guy.
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Post by George Gervin on May 1, 2021 18:10:28 GMT
Damn, how long did it take to write that? So much effort. I feel the need to correct you though, I have 23 picks in the next four drafts including 8 for this year. So if anyone is going to want to move down or trade into this draft, I'm your guy. Very long lol— not to mention researching rosters to make sure there wasn’t a dumbass mock for a player. It’s hard to keep track of your picks when you’re like Presti over here with asset acquisition
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Post by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar on May 1, 2021 23:52:58 GMT
George Gervin. I'll pick your pick for you if you have your pick next draft. ^^
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Post by George Gervin on Jul 14, 2021 21:49:03 GMT
With the D5 lottery concluded and Cade's destination finally determined, the final iteration of the 2021 D5 Mock Draft series is here! Go wild with anger over my takes and players you hate being mocked to your team - MIN – Cade Cunningham (PG), Oklahoma State University. In the last version, we were watching the bottom finally fall out on Walt Frazier and the Timberwolves. Whether by bad luck, injury, or running into a playoff buzz saw, nothing had really gone their way over the last couple of seasons. Now, though, I imagine there is cause for rejoice in the Twin Cities, as they jump up from the third spot in the draft lottery all the way to the top. With prior trades this last season that managed to add two young pieces – Thomas Bryant and Immanuel Quickley – to existing prospects like NAW, Lonzo Ball, and Deni Avdija, the Timberwolves now are in the catbird seat with a stacked draft class. They could opt to go in any direction – grab one of the top four prospects, get a trade bounty, shock the world by taking a guy not in that consensus quartet – but in this final iteration prior to the 2021 D5 draft, the Wolves make the expected choice of Cunningham. While Cade and his team opted to skip the combine and only will work out for the team holding the 1st overall selection, there hasn’t been anything made public that would change his hold on the top spot. He is the kind of prospect that checks many boxes for a perimeter player in today’s game – shooting, passing, scoring, and defending – that make him the type of malleable, versatile piece that the Wolves can add to their young team and put their rebuild into overdrive.
- NYK – Evan Mobley (PF), University of Southern California. The Knicks and Arvydas Sabonis had to sweat it out till the last day of the lottery pick announcements, watching as they possibly could bring Cade to the Big Apple. Alas, they didn’t land that first pick, but that doesn’t mean all is lost. Depending on your risk appetite for prospects, Evan Mobley could be not only better to take a swing on this high than Cade given his ceiling, but also his current production isn’t so far off Cade that it’d be a wild upset to have him at the top of a big board. Mobley’s traits have been extolled before – the defense, the fluidity at his size, the BB IQ, the pedigree being the son of a former NBA player – that make him such a coveted prospect. What’s even more outstanding for Mobley is compared to big men drafted in the top 5 since 2003, only one (Anthony Davis) offered a similar statistical profile along the dimensions of passing, blocks, and discipline not to foul. Will Mobley reach AD’s heights? That’s hard to say – but for the Knicks, being second here isn’t the worst thing to happen, as when it’s all said and done, they could end up with the best player in the draft five years down the road.
- LAC – Jalen Suggs (G), Gonzaga University. The Clippers, for a hot minute late in the season, looked like they were going to potentially threaten breaching the play-in tournament. However, they were passed in the standings out West by a few teams that pushed them to the fourth best odds – and jumping up to the third spot based on the Suns tumble down the lottery. With the third pick, probably more conventional wisdom would be take Jalen Green, a more natural 2 guard, to pair with LaMelo, who can play his more natural PG position in a hyper potential backcourt. However, the Clippers and Mike Krzyzewski in this version grab Jalen Suggs for two chief reasons: prospect floor and fit. Suggs as a prospect arguably has a much higher floor than Green by virtue of his more well-rounded game, ability to play multiple positions, and his demonstration already at Gonzaga of fitting into a team with elite talent and seamlessly filling a role. Next to LaMelo, Suggs can very easily play at shooting guard and with his defensive tenacity and BB IQ, he should be able to help cover for some of LaMelo’s defensive shortcomings far more than Green could. Suggs would also serve as another excellent facilitator for the Clippers, whereas adding Green – who is not nearly as advanced a creator for others compared to his ability to create for himself – might place too much pressure on Ball to be the offensive creator. Regardless of the guard they select, the Clippers cannot really go wrong, but on paper, Suggs projects to be close enough to Green in talent and much better in fit that he goes to Hollywood.
- PHI – Jalen Green (SG), G League Ignite. Full disclosure – if I was the Sixers and Allen Iverson, given their monster trade for Ben Simmons and Malcolm Brogdon already in the backcourt, I’d seriously consider taking Scottie Barnes here as a potential wing monster to roll the dice on. However, that would really buck the conventional notion of a quartet above the rest in this draft, so rather than rock the boat, let’s focus on how they’ll spend a surprising five pick jump in the lottery to #4. Jalen Green is arguably the draft’s premier perimeter scorer. He is the definition of a three level player on that end of the floor, and at his apex it’s impossible to believe he will be a 25+ PPG scorer in the League. Why Green slots in as fourth amongst that quartet in this mock draft iteration has more to do with everything else on a basketball court. Defensively, he’s the furthest behind of the consensus four; there’s far too many plays where he looks like a Matador with a bull than a guy actively defending his man. As a facilitator, he’s also the furthest behind of the top four – yes, even compared to Mobley as a big, he’s worse – so what you’re getting right now as far as value is whatever he puts up offensively. That’s not to say he won’t be an excellent player in the League—he very well with this era’s offensive explosion become the early leader of “best player in this class” – but he has much more to develop still to become the type of franchise anchor. For Philadelphia, who I’m sure is thrilled to be here, they can afford to take him, be patient, and work on getting Ben Simmons into a gym to change shooting hands..
- PHX – Scottie Barnes (F), Florida State University. Jesus, where to begin with the Suns. This team and Jared Montini might be cursed – in 2018, they miss out on Luka, Ayton, and JJJ (and pass on Trae, SGA, and MPJ) for Mo “9 ft. arms” Bamba; in 2019, they watch the Cavs land Zion with their draft pick; in 2020, they roll the dice on the Warriors sucking in 2021 only to watch Tyrese Halliburton go one pick after their selection they traded. Now in 2021, with the best odds to land in the top four of any team, they land at five. In recent drafts, being at #5 would be a huge disappointment – the talent has really dropped off in the last two drafts in particular after the top three prospects – and for the Suns expecting one of those consensus four, I’m sure it’s doubly disappointing. However, with the fifth selection, Scottie Barnes could end up being a pleasant surprise for the Suns. What Barnes does well is pretty much everything but shooting. Need a passer? He’s arguably a top three facilitator in this draft based on vision, IQ, and production. Need a defender? 6’8”, 7’3” wingspan, 235 LBs and coming from the FSU wing factory, he’s been coached to play defense well both individually and as a team defender. Add to those two aspects the rave character feedback across the board, and you have the makings of a wing who can be the face of a franchise. There is a catch – and it’s a big one. Barnes, as a shooter, is far away from peak form. His shot comes off funky, and while he showed in workouts that he’s been tweaking the form, his ability to keep defenses honest will dictate his ceiling. For the Suns, with a roster that one could argue Cam Johnson – 25 yrs. old, role player at peak – is their best player, they need a moonshot. Barnes could end up being better than any guy in front of him in this mock, and with nothing to lose, the Suns go for broke.
- POR – Josh Giddey (PG), Adelaide 36ers (Australian NBL). For those in D5 who have perused the Discord, the Blazers and Jerry West have either created the greatest pump-and-dump, GameStop style scheme ever with their drooling over Giddey to hide their true prospect dreams, or we can call this pick the “in-stone” selection for the 2021 D5 Draft. As a barely 18 year old prospect playing in the NBL, Giddey has been a stat stuffer in the box score: 11 PPG, 7 RPG, 7 APG, and 1 SPG in 23 GP (all starts) for the Adelaide 36ers. He’s also an unusually big PG at 6’8”, 210 LBs, and in the vein of the supersized initiator that teams have been hunting for in recent years. Giddey does have some things he needs to iron out – particularly his shooting, which is an unsightly 42/31/65 splits—and physically he’s going to need time to be able to withstand the rigors of the NBA. The Blazers went bold last year on a physically immature, passing gifted foreigner in Poku the Great – for the second year in a row, they grab youth, upside and passing chops for their young core.
- DEN – Johnathan Kuminga (SF), G League Ignite. The Nuggets and Alex English were hoping, post play-in tourney where they had two chances to move up, to be picking higher than seventh and fourteenth, but the Lottery Gods deemed it not to be. However, like some teams in front of them who missed out on the top four guys, this draft isn’t for naught, as they watch one of the draft’s youngest prospects slide into their laps. Based on the Nuggets GM’s prior draft board history, Kuminga is probably not the usual archetype for them prospect wise. He wasn’t particularly efficient, didn’t shoot very well, and compared to his more hallowed G League Ignite teammate Jalen Green, he got worse, not better, as their season advanced. Ultimately, though, this is a League where talent reigns supreme, and on that basis, Kuminga arguably has few peers in this class. He has the physical profile to handle the rigors of the League immediately, and with his young age, the sky is the limit if he can iron out his current deficiencies. The Nuggets are rich in draft assets and other young prospects right now that taking risks behooves their current situation; there’s few bigger risks, or potential rewards, than Kuminga in this draft, and the Nuggets stake a big piece of their rebuild to that potential at #7.
- OKC – Keon Johnson (SG), University of Tennessee. No change here for the Thunder and Kevin Hollis – they still desperately need wing help, and with Giddey, Suggs, and Cunningham all long gone, they’re not going to grab one of the premier PG prospects in this draft all the way at #8. Keon Johnson hasn’t played organized basketball for very long, and he measured out quite small for a guy that plays more like a wing than a guard (6’3”), but he made up for it with stupid athleticism (48” vertical) that broke nearly two decade old combine records for verticality and explosiveness. Yes, he will take real patience with whoever drafts him – and given OKC’s prior foray into “wing who needs work” in Knox, they may not want to go for such a wildcard bet this high. On the flipside, if Johnson hits, he might be a two way monster the likes of which every team looks for in today’s game.
- WAS – Alperen Sengun (F/C), Besiktas (Turkish League). Here we go – enter the Wizards and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, who are making their seventh straight appearance in the lottery, and six of those seven spent in the top 10. Frankly, that kind of futility has left…well, not much to show for it. Their best player (Isaac) they’ve drafted has been hurt all but one year of his career; their best player full-stop (Bam) was acquired via a three team trade two seasons ago and honestly, they haven’t inspired confidence that they can field a winning roster with him as he comes into an extension eligible year after next season. With that last point in mind, they grab the draft’s singularly most productive prospect in Alperen Sengun, the Turkish teenage wonder. Sengun is not your prototypical big in today’s game – he’s not a good shooter, he isn’t a vertical spacer, and he does most of his damage 15 feet and in. However, Sengun straight up produces as an 18 year old big: 31 GP (all starts), 20/9.5/2.5/1.5/1.5 on 64% FG and 80% FT in 28 MPG. He can really pass for a big his size as well, which has led some scouts to invoke a Jokic comparison (rather unfairly), but it’s hard not to look at the production and figure it will translate in the right situation in the NBA. All that production led to him being named Turkish League MVP, which for folks keeping score at home, prospects who grab MVPs in foreign leagues as youngsters have generally done pretty well in the NBA. For the Wizards, best case scenario is Sengun continues to produce in the NBA and they solve the frontcourt spot next to Bam; worst case scenario, Sengun is a hedge against a potential Bam exit.
- NOP (via MIA) – Franz Wagner (F), University of Michigan. The Pelicans and Brian Scalabrine surely were hoping to jump up…and they were one draft spot from being that team as Philly jumped from #9 all the way to #4. The Pelicans are still chock full of depth despite some trades late in the season, and after a surprise first round series win over the 3rd seeded Jazz and hard fought second round series versus the Rockets, there is a lot to be excited about in New Orleans. However, if there’s one thing that great depth on cheap contracts breeds, it’s not enough cap to pay everyone. At some point, with a max coming to Trae Young and potentially Jaren Jackson Jr. down the road – not to mention what salary Hayward commands this offseason – the Pelicans need to think about adding guys who can produce on rookie scales. Franz Wagner is that kind of prospect; he is one those lottery projected players where there are few holes in his game. Sure, you’d like him to be a bit more athletic given he will play on the wings, and he doesn’t hit the glass as much as you’d like for a guy with his BB IQ and fundamental position skills, but as a guy who can produce on a rookie scale and provide real value to a team as either an elite bench wing or starter, he will be a coveted player. Given the Pelicans need to start mapping out cap expenditures and thin ranks on who is paid versus who hits the road, Wagner should help backfill some of that production lost in the future.
- DET – Jaden Springer (PG), University of Tennessee. No change here for Detroit and Chauncey Billups at the eleventh selection from the last version. Springer actually makes even more sense now for Detroit, not only because of the skillset he brings to the table at that lead guard spot combined with his natural athletic talent, but also with Coby White blowing out his left shoulder and being shelved for the foreseeable future, there’s got to be some doubt now as to what kind of player White comes back as given the existing deficiencies in his game. In a perfect world, White might be a Sixth Man sparkplug if his shoulder injury proves to be a long term management item for him. As a bigger PG (6’4”, 205 lbs.), Springer’s unlikely to be pushed around at the NBA level the way White has, and he’s a PG who can not only create for himself and others, but he offers the kind of floor spacing that Detroit currently doesn’t have in the backcourt as a 44% shooter from 3. More importantly, though, Springer is a really good defensive guard, and with the struggles that both White and Edwards have exhibited on that end in their young NBA careers, adding a guard who can both defend and shoot should really help the lineup balance for the Pistons.
- DAL – James Bouknight (SF), University of Connecticut. At #12 we have the Mavericks and Danny Longley, who bowed out in the play-in tournament to an underperforming Memphis squad and then the Lakers in the deciding 8 seed game. What’s clear for Dallas is they have two starting spots secured – Ja Morant at PG and Ivica Zubac at C. Where they continue to need talent is at wings, and a guy like James Bouknight is just what the doctor ordered for a roster like this. Bouknight started off pretty good this season for the Huskies before tailing off (especially from 3) as UConn entered Big East play. Bouknight is more of a classic wing, in that he scores well, rebounds well, is active in the passing lanes, and can be counted out as a complimentary piece, Bouknight, unfortunately, didn’t really dispel concerns about creation for others with his play this season, as he sported a negative AST to TO ratio (1.8 to 2.8) and as a player who figures to be a secondary or third scorer at the next level, it’d help if he also wasn’t a Black Hole once he gets the ball. In predraft workout settings, Bouknight has been destroying guys in his matchups, showing the offensive prowess that excites teams about his potential as a top tier scoring option if not right away, then pretty soon after his rookie year. He’d provide much needed punch on the wings for Dallas, as well as become an athletic running mate for their freak athlete PG Morant on the break.
- IND – Moses Moody (SG/SF), University of Arkansas. No change here for the Pacers and Larry Bird at #13. Despite dealing off two bigs in Jakob Poetl and Richaun Holmes at the deadline for backcourt players Isaac Okoro and Seth Curry, the Pacers still need a more physical wing given the injury risks some of their current stalwarts carry. Moses Moody has been one of the predraft process winners amongst the current crop, as his freakish +8.5 inch wingspan combined with his statistical 3 and D profile have teams salivating over perhaps the next Mikal Bridges type prospect. For Indiana, they’ve oscillated between competing and rebuilding over the last few seasons—with a seeming commitment to rebuilding, they grab a player who fits a coveted mold in today’s game to add to their stable of young talent.
- DEN (via TOR) – Nah’Shon Hyland (SG), Virginia Commonwealth University. With the 14th pick, we have the Nuggets and Alex English via the Siakam trade with the Raptors. I know you’re reading this thinking “a smaller guard who was a 2nd round prospect just a hot minute ago at #14?? What gives?”…well, let me explain. Hyland’s ability to fly under the draft radar imploded after he dominated the combine in multiple facets. It wasn’t just drills and measurements, where his wingspan (+7.75 inches) will allow him to play up in size fairly easily despite his height and his speed was evident, but his dominant performances in the scrimmages versus other prospects where he clearly was the best player on the floor only cemented his status as a pure basketball player. Hyland’s best skills are his mix of scoring (19.5 PPG), defense (1.9 SPG), and shooting volume (37% from 3 on a 0.547 3P Attempt Rate, which is very high) all put in the package of an athletic guard. For the Nuggets, there might be higher upside guys left like a Jalen Johnson, Isiah Jackson, or even Sharife Cooper that they could take a stab at. However, those guys all have major flaws that either haven’t been explained (looking at you, Irish goodbye your last three teams, Jalen…) or were exposed a bit in the predraft process (Cooper’s diminutive size and Jackson’s rawness) that should give real pause in the lottery. With Hyland, he not only assuaged some fears with his combine performance, but also has the production in college to definitively back up the projection. For Denver, he could be a very nice foundational piece in the backcourt as they accumulate talent for this roster.
- PHX (via LAL) – Davion Mitchell (PG), Baylor University. With the 15th selection, the Suns and Jared Montini check in again with their own selection. Earlier at pick #5, the Suns went for upside and youth with Scottie Barnes on the wings. At #16, they go for a player who probably had one of the best closing stretches between conference tournament and NCAA tournament in recent memory in Davion Mitchell. As a senior with 94 games under his belt at the college level, Mitchell should be able to come in Day 1 and provide real minutes for a team. His best attributes are his defensive skill and tenacity (it wouldn’t be surprising if he competes for an All NBA Defensive team spot at multiple points in his career) combined with very good shooting touch (38% from 3 over his college career). For the Suns, the last guy they drafted who was ancient by age terms turned out to be a solid pick in Cam Johnson. While this isn’t the 30th selection like that was a few years ago, the premise remains the same that perhaps adding another adult in the draft will help right the ship for this Suns roster.
- BKN (via MEM) – Kai Jones (F/C), University of Texas. At #16 we have the Brooklyn Nets and Andrei Kirilenko, who are methodically marching through the D5 playoffs towards a potential Finals date with Houston or Golden State. They made a late season trade to shore up their frontcourt that saw Isaac Okoro leave for Jakob Poetl and this draft selection. At the time, it didn’t look like Memphis would slide as far as they did – at one point this was potentially lottery bound – but the Nets now have the benefit of taking BPA available. As their GM has preached in the Discord, he isn’t about those “Age 21 and up” prospects. Kai Jones would be a long term, high risk, high reward type pick befitting of the Nets preferred youth movement draft ethos. Jones is arguably the highest upside big in this class not named Evan Mobley. He’s extremely fluid, has very good form on his jumper, and you can see the outlines of an elite 3 and D center at the next level. If you looked at highlight reel videos alone, you’d think Jones would be a top ten pick. However, Jones is the definition of raw—he has not played basketball that long, and he definitely had many moments where it was clear he just doesn’t process the game quick enough to react. For the Nets, Jones is a worthwhile draft and stash. They don’t need him right now to contribute in their playoff battles, and if he pans out, he could be a Myles Turner type center with the ability to be a defensive terror and floor spacer anchoring the middle. Or he becomes a really enticing trade piece with one of their existing mega-stars for a different mega-star.
- NOP – Chris Duarte (G/W), University of Oregon. At #17 we have the Pelicans and Brian Scalabrine again, who went with one readymade wing in the lottery already in Franz Wagner of Michigan. With this selection, they snag another player who will probably prove to be very valuable on his rookie contract in Duarte. His age has been the much discussed talking point (just turned 24), but statistically speaking, he offers much of what is expected of a modern wing. Scoring? Check (17 PPG). Versatility? Check (4.6 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.9 SPG, and 0.8 BPG). Shooting? Check (53/42/81 splits on 66% TS and 63% EFG). Beyond his draft age, the only other significant negative for Duarte is he doesn’t get to the line very frequently for a player with his talent and skill. For the Pelicans, who as mentioned before are facing not only a roster crunch but also cap crunch by virtue of a good draft track record, adding a readymade player who can contribute on his rookie deal becomes that much more important.
- SAC – Jalen Johnson (F), Duke University. Unchanged in draft position from the last iteration are the Kings and Amare Stoudemire; however, prospect wise they watch Kai Jones climb the ladder a bit out of range and have a prospect with far more pedigree (and in my opinion higher risk) slide to them in Jalen Johnson. Now, I’m not going to get on my soapbox about Jalen the person – he strikes me based on his pattern of behavior as a sore loser and bad locker room guy, but in the sims that kind of stuff doesn’t matter. What Jalen does on the court as a stat stuffing wing – albeit one who can’t shoot that well – should be coveted on draft night. For the Kings, who have a lot of roster turnover in pursuit of playoff glory, Johnson could be a steal this far down if he gets his attitude in check. He could also just as easily be a bust. This far down, though, players of his talent level aren’t usually available – the Kings therefore take the good with the bad and make Johnson their selection.
- CHI – Ziaire Williams (F), Stanford University. With the 19th pick we have the Chicago Bulls and Shane Battier, who put up a valiant effort in Round 1 versus the Nets but ultimately couldn’t overcome the talent disparity. While I’m sure their focus will be more on the looming Player Option decisions of their starting backcourt, the Bulls have to also be thinking about where they are currently thin on the roster position wise and comb the ranks for a gem. A prospect like Ziaire Williams normally wouldn’t be available this far down in a draft, but a confluence of factors makes him a likely slide contender to the Bulls. First, he’s had a very slow recovery from a leg injury suffered his last year of high school that stretched well into his lone season at Stanford. It sapped some of his trademark athleticism and defensive effectiveness, which raises flags on if this will have long term ramifications. Second, Stanford had easily the weirdest college basketball season under COVID, as they did not play a single home game (you read that right) due to rules in the Bay Area on sports participation. As such, Stanford was on the road the entire season and one has to wonder the toll that took on the players – particularly one like Williams as a freshman overcoming a significant injury. Third, this draft is fairly deep and players with question marks will undoubtedly slide—leading to instance like this where a player most had pre-season as a top 8 selection landing in the 20s. For the Bulls, Williams could be the kind of wing that normally they wouldn’t draft by virtue of being way, way down the draft order. If he can get with the right training staff to correct his knee, the Williams in HS that was a two way menace could make the Bulls very, very happy down the road.
- WAS (via SAS) – Sharife Cooper (PG), University of Auburn. The Wizards and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar check in again at #20 via the Spurs pick, which is the last one outstanding from the legendary JR Wiles draft hating days. At #9, the Wizards went with overseas production and youth in Alperen Sengun of Turkey; at #20, they go for a flashy PG with some question marks in Sharife Cooper. As far as speed up and down the floor is concerned, Cooper has very few peers in this draft – he can fly up the floor and pass at an elite level, something teams are always looking for. Where Cooper is going to struggle is a combination of two crucial items: shooting inefficiency and size. Cooper initially was the talk of the combine by coming in at 6’4”…only for the NBA to admit afterwards it was a typo and he actually came in at barely 6’0”. Strike one against Cooper physically. Strike two is his statistical profile; his shooting splits were horrendous at Auburn, and he couldn’t finish well around the hoop at all due to the aforementioned size issue. That finishing won’t be easier at the NBA level, so he will really need to work on eliminating his “lean back” shot form from the perimeter to have any hope of maximizing his talent. For the Wizards, who currently need talent period, Cooper is a worthy swing at #20.
- UTA – Isiah Jackson (C), University of Kentucky. No changes from the previous iteration for the Jazz and Tim Duncan, who finished strong during the regular season to a third place finish out West in the standings. Unfortunately, that finish didn’t translate to a series win in Round 1, as they were bounced by the Pelicans in seven hard fought games. The Jazz assuredly will be eyeing max level free agents this offseason after their performance, and with Jayson Tatum as the star hook to pitch—but alas, the draft comes first. With Clint Capela firmly entrenched at center, the Jazz can afford to go BPA on upside upfront without worrying about the need to produce. Jackson is extremely raw, but defensively speaking, he was a monster at Kentucky. If the shooting touch he displayed comes around with more frequency and greater confidence, the Jazz may have themselves a spacing and defending big that has become the Unicorn teams hunt for nowadays.
- CLE – Corey Kispert (F), Gonzaga University. The Cavs and @f5sakuragicheck in at #22, and they gave D5 its most exciting playoff series to date in their near comeback versus the top seeded Celtics. While they came up short in Game 7 of that series, there is a lot to like about the Cavs situation, with a clear superstar talent in Zion, a productive star player in LaVine, and a boatload of cap space this offseason to play with as they try to improve their standing out East. The Cavs draft record suggests they probably will find someone obscure at this slot that will turn out to be great, and the rest of us will scratch our heads on draft night only to eat our words later, but in this version, they take a surefire role player in Kispert. No, he’s not a lottery talent – similar to Mitchell – as has been projected. But what Kispert can clearly do is shoot extremely well on multiple platforms – stationary, on the move, catch and shoot – that any playoff team would love to have, on top of having played at an elite program with top notch coaching for four years. For Cleveland, he can be a player along with Lu Dort and Matisse Thybulle of the bench that adds real value through a defined role and skill set on a cheap, controllable contract.
- CHA – Trey Murphy III (F), University of Virginia. At #23 are the Hornets and James Kay, still the D5 defending champs but one who suffered a first round sweep at the hands of the Hawks that I’m sure left them stunned at what’s next. Featuring a completely retooled roster from last year’s championship team – only Khris Middleton surviving the turnover – the Hornets had ambitions to run it back. Losing in the manner they did in Round 1, and facing an offseason of questions on how to tweak this roster going forward, all things are fair game for the Hornets. Should they keep their current group intact, they could use bench wing support—in this iteration, that support is Trey Murphy III, a top rising prospect in this draft. What Murphy does well is shoot…like, really, really well to the tune of 51/43/92 splits on 67% TS and 64% eFG. Offensively, he is the definition of an analytics model breaker with his prowess all over the court as a shooter. He’s also not a slouch defensively for a wing, with a +4 inch wingspan on his 6’9” frame. So why is he down in the 20s? Well, first he came from a smaller program (Rice) prior to just one year at UVA, so the track record at top tier competition isn’t long for him. Second, he doesn’t add much right now beyond shooting and positional defense – he’s a poor rebounder for his size and doesn’t show much as a primitive, let alone adequate, passer for the wings. However, Murphy clearly has an elite level talent in the League’s obsessive hunt for shooting, and for the Hornets, if all he does is continue to shoot the leather off the ball, he’s a worthwhile pick in the 20s a real bench player and spot starter.
- NYK (via HOU) – Usman Garuba (F), Real Madrid (Spanish League). With their first pick in Round 1, the Knicks and Arvydas Sabonis grabbed an elite defensive talent at center in Evan Mobley to help protect the rim for their squad. With the 24th pick, the Knicks take another elite defensive prospect in Real Madrid’s Usman Garuba. The upside to Garuba is immense – 94 games played this past year alone for Real Madrid across multiple leagues in Europe has provided him ample experience as a teenager to make his mark. Defensively, he is one of the few guys who can earn the label of a 1 through 5 defender. Where Garuba’s value will ultimately be determined to a team is offensively – right now, he can’t be a guy who is expected to create offense for himself easily let alone others. He will be very dependent on his teammates creating for him to provide value on that end. If he never advances to a stage where he can reliably create, he likely is Spanish Andre Roberson. But if he can improve on that end – while not losing his defensive acumen – he could be for the Knicks the type of lockdown defender needed to counter today’s offensive firepower on the wings.
- LAC (via MIL) – JT Thor (F), University of Auburn. With their second pick in Round 1, the Clippers could go a number of ways – international draft and stash with several intriguing options here, such as Roko Prkacin or Ariel Hukporti, or a more League ready senior prospect type like Ayo Dosunmu – but instead they take the draft’s biggest mystery in JT Thor. On paper, Thor shouldn’t be a first round pick – his production was okay at Auburn in his lone year, and he wasn’t a focal option offensively or defensively of the Tigers. However, Thor has exploded to put it mildly onto the draft scene, first with his otherworldly displays of athleticism and fluidity at the combine in drills and testing, the second with measurables placing him in the highest percentiles for a player on the wing. Now he’s risen from 2nd round two-way contract at best to a definite first rounder, if not top 20 selection. For the Clippers, this would be the kind of “Fuck it, why not?” gamble at this stage in the draft that if he doesn’t pan out, that follows history for picks this low, but if he does pan out, they will have added another potential piece to their roster.
- ORL – Josh Primo (G), University of Alabama. With the 25th pick, one draft riser went to the Clippers in JT Thor. At 26, we have another draft riser in Josh Primo going to the Magic and Steve Nash. Like Thor, Primo didn’t really show in his one year at Alabama that he was a One-and-Done guy – his statistical profile in fact was pretty poor, and he probably would’ve been better served returning to school to showcase his sophomore year. However, once the predraft process began and he was able to show at the combine and in workouts skills he had at his disposal that he didn’t show at Alabama, which piqued the interest of NBA teams. As a moldable prospect, he comes with elite length and physical tools for a guard—with a nascent ability to run the point while being able to also play off ball. For the Magic, this is all about trying to add a high reward guy at the end of Round 1—especially with a likely capped out roster coming with offseason extensions looming for Hield and Fournier.
- ATL – Joe Wieskamp (F), University of Iowa. At 27 are the Hawks and Jay Z, who blew the doors off the Hornets in Round 1 of the playoffs before getting beat like a red-headed stepchild by the Nets in Round 2. The Hawks go into the offseason sneakily with decent cap space and the potential, were they to offload Kelly Oubre, to get to max contract money and a core to sell to a max level FA. This far down, regardless of FA aspirations, the Hawks should be looking for players that can contribute now while Jimmy Butler is still in his prime as a player. Joe Wieskamp as this year’s prime movement shooter is just the type of prospect to go for this far down. Wieskamp at Iowa was overshadowed by National Player of the Year Luka Garza, but as NBA prospects go, he is the superior. He can move very well off the ball, and his movement shooting both on the court in Iowa and demonstrated at the combine in drills is off the charts. He’s not Duncan Robinson or JJ Redick elite in that respect on the move, but he isn’t too far off that kind of shooting prowess. He also tested athletically very, very well, portending a guy who shouldn’t get blown away defensively by NBA athletes. For Atlanta, he figures to be a legit bench shooting threat on a controllable contract – music to their ears as a contending team.
- PHX (via GSW) – Roko Prkacin (F), Cibona (Adriatic League). With their third pick in Round 1, the Suns and Jared Montini look to add to their stable of prospects this draft with a likely stash candidate in Roko Prkacin of Cibona, Prkacin is one of the draft’s youngest prospects – still just 18 – and at the combine he performed pretty well, measuring out a solid 6’8”, 225 LBs with a 4+ wingspan to his height. He also tested pretty well in the drills; it’s a shame he didn’t play the scrimmages, but his Adriatic League play is more valuable than a combine scrimmage for teams at this point. The main reason Prkacin isn’t higher on the draft board is ultimately he plateaued in production. Last year’s numbers and this years are not very different, which gives pause on whether Prkacin has peaked a bit as a jack of all trades, master of none wing. Those types of players, though, have value off the bench, and perhaps it is a bit harsh to expect much more from a very young player playing in a difficult European League. The Suns would be wise to bank on him continuing to improve as he enters his 20s and grab a Swiss Army knife piece at the end of the draft.
- BKN – Miles McBride (G), University of West Virginia. With the Nets first pick, this mock adhered to their “Fuck older than 21” prospects ethos espoused by Andrei Kirilenko. At 29, we’re going for that again with Miles “Deuce” McBride from West Virginia. The best way to describe Deuce is as one of the most intense guys on the floor—playing under Bob Huggins will do that to a player – who exhibits a very well rounded game. Sporting shooting splits of 43/41/81 with almost 2 SPG and supreme (+8 wingspan) length, he is the definition of a point of attack guard that can be a havoc defender in the Patrick Beverly mold. He also has no problem getting to spots with his quickness and length to finish over defenders. The Nets don’t really have any holes – the perks of being a stacked team – but with Derrick Rose a free agent, and Kyrie oft injured (or often distracted), adding a guard who can feasibly project as a bench cog at minimum, potential starter at best, could be a boon for the Nets ability to sustain success in the face of injury risks and a high priced roster.
- BOS – Ayo Dosunmu (G), University of Illinois. Rounding out the first round are the Celtics and Ian Noble, who sport the League’s best record for a second consecutive season. Their roster had its second major shakeup in as many seasons, as Ben Simmons and Jerami Grant were sent packing to Philadelphia for Michael Porter Jr. and rental veterans. One thing that has been glaring for the Celtics in these playoffs due to injuries to Jaylen Brown and Jamaal Murray is the lack of longterm, quality guard depth—when Jeff Teague is taking 20 shots at a crucial playoff moment, that’s not a great sign. Ayo Dosunmu of Illinois is the definition of an end of 1st, elder statesman prospect that playoff teams long target. He’s got plus size for the backcourt at 6’5” with a 6’11” wingspan, and after averaging 20/6/5 on 49/39/78 splits for the Illini, he’s got the production to go with the frame. Ayo is down here by virtue of being almost 22 years old, which in theory limits his upside, and he did suffer a bad knee injury earlier in his college career. For the Celtics, they need reliability from these draft picks given – like the Nets – the injury risks of their star players. Dosunmu can step in Day 1 as a reliable professional off the bench for the Celtics – especially in the face of likely missing Murray for all of next season as well.
Round 2 (Teams with 2nd rounders but no 1sts)40. SAS (via MIA) – Aaron Henry (F), Michigan State University. At #40 are the Spurs and George Gervin, who were on the losing end of Round 1’s most competitive playoff series with the Kings in heartbreaking, OT fashion at home in Game 7. Heading into an offseason with $51 MM in cap space and at least one starter in Christian Wood to extend, this is a pivotal juncture for their future trajectory; they could try to grab a draft and stash prospect, a sliding One and Done or G League player to roll the dice on, or someone more ready to play. In this iteration, they go for the latter option in Aaron Henry of MSU. As a player, his projection is fairly cookie cutter – he’s a plus defender on the wing who can put the ball on the deck, facilitate, and played night after night in the Big Ten faced up against the team’s best perimeter player regularly. He’s the definition of a bench wing that has addressed the ‘D’ portion of 3 and D. The shooting still leaves something to be desired, which limits his ceiling a bit, but with the Spurs likely to lose Marcus Morris on the wing this offseason to a long term offer, any depth on the wings is much appreciated. 50. GSW (via SAS) – Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (F), Villanova University. At #50 are the Warriors and Chris Mullin, who have had two decisive 4-1 series wins these playoffs by surprisingly close margins in every game. KD has gone supernova for most of these playoffs for them, demonstrating why he’s one of the League’s most feared players, and the Warriors stare down another potential Finals trip if they get by Houston in the Conference Finals. Last year, the Warriors had arguably four prospects “hit” among their five draftees – Cole Anthony, Isiah Stewart, Jaden McDaniels, and Paul Reed – with only Jah’mius Ramsey disappointing. With that draft success in mind, the Warriors can afford to be picky; JRE, as he’s known, would be the type of chess board piece befitting of a Warriors squad constantly in contention. While he’s not the longest wing, or most athletic player, he comes from the Nova system that has churned out NBA ready talent—and he’s no exception. One thing he adds as a dimension that prior Nova prospects haven’t is as a passer, and for the Warriors on their bench, that could be a significant addition. Where JRE will struggle is as a shooter – pretty abysmal 28% from 3 and only 70% from the stripe—and defensively he can be beaten by longer players due to his negative wingspan. The Warriors, though, don’t need a star at #50 – just a contributor, which JRE should be more than capable of doing.
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Post by Mike Krzyzewski on Jul 14, 2021 23:36:38 GMT
Amazing content George!!
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Jul 15, 2021 2:43:26 GMT
Great write up. I feel that the past 3 drafts have been kinda bad after the top 3 each year. It's getting annoying tbh.
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