2020 Playoffs - Round 2 Preview
May 23, 2020 13:46:45 GMT
Ian Noble, Walt Frazier, and 5 more like this
Post by Andrei Kirilenko on May 23, 2020 13:46:45 GMT
2020 Playoffs - Round 2 Preview
1. Boston Celtics
4-1, +12.8 differential, 48.4% FG, 444 lineup rating
4. Brooklyn Nets
4-1, +5.0 differential, 44.0% FG, 420 lineup rating
After dropping Game 1 against the Bulls, the Celtics adjusted their lineup to have Ben Simmons guard Lillard and LeBron James guard Kawhi, and that was pretty much it for Chicago's hopes. Joel Embiid dominated Dewayne Dedmon down low, putting up three games of 25+ points, but the unsung hero for the Celtics was Jamal Murray, who had three 20+ point games himself (possibly because he was being guarded by Dion Waiters). The Celtics are stacked at every position, and are rewarded for their late-season success here in the 2nd round by avoiding the Bucks and Hornets.
The Nets don't present the star power of the Bulls, but they do have a much more balanced lineup. Although their high octane frontcourt of Porzingis and Collins struggled against the 76ers, the sharpshooting Devin Booker would not let the Nets lose, putting up over 20 points in 4 of the 5 games. The Nets will need to get their entire offense on track, however, if they are going to have any success against the Celtics, as Brooklyn dropped to just 44% FG in the first round. With the Nets already beating the Celtics twice this season without Kyrie Irving, there does at least seem to be a path forward to the ECF.
This matchup pits the top 2 efficient regular-season offenses in the league against each other, with the Celtics bullying down low and the Nets shooting lights out from every position. Devin Booker will need to continue to have big games, and a 2nd or 3rd player will need to emerge for Brooklyn if they are to have any chance against the league's best team.
Prediction: Semi-competitive Celtics win
3. Charlotte Hornets
4-1, +12.4 differential, 47.6% FG, 441 lineup rating
2. Milwaukee Bucks
4-1, +22.2 differential, 43.6% FG, 425 lineup rating
The playoff Bucks are back, putting in an absolute beatdown on the Atlanta Hawks (average win margin of 22.2). Milwaukee appears to be firing on all cylinders again, with Bradley Beal averaging 29.0 ppg in the playoffs and Anthony Davis doing just about everything else to terrorize opponents. There are some efficiency concerns for the Bucks, however, as the team put up just 104 ppg and shot just 43.6% on the series. Milwaukee will need its league-leading defense to hold up against a powerful Hornets team if they want to move on.
The Hornets, for their part, enjoyed a fairly comfortable first round, dropping only 1 (overtime) game to the Magic and winning by an average of 12.4 points per game. Paul George led the way as usual, putting up two 30+ point games, with Westbrook and co. filling in the gaps. Charlotte has to be pretty happy with their first round, as their team improved statistically in just about every category compared to the regular season. With a higher rated lineup, the Hornets will have to believe they have a real shot at knocking out the defending champs.
This matchup will be a bloodbath, with perhaps 2 of the top 3 teams in the entire league meeting in the 2nd round. These teams went to 7 games in the ECF last season, and I hope we get a similar battle here this year. With Durant injured last season, the Hornets are quietly much improved (Tony Snell and Robin Lopez are no longer starters), so I think the Hornets just edge out the Bucks in this much anticipated showdown.
Prediction: Competitive Hornets win
1. Sacramento Kings
4-2, +12.0 differential, 48.4% FG, 423 lineup rating
4. Portland Trail Blazers
4-2, +3.0 differential, 45.6% FG, 402 lineup rating
Despite dropping 2 games to a sub- .500 team, the Kings have to be pretty happy with their first round. With huge offensive contributions from DeMar DeRozan, a steady reliability from LaMarcus Aldridge, and a few marquee performances from Andre Drummond, the Kings find themselves with the highest-scoring and most efficient playoff offense. The formula seems to be working for Sacramento, and they are rewarded with a matchup against the lowest rated team in the 2nd round.
The Blazers started slow, dropping the first 2 games at home, but quickly rattled off 4 straight wins against the Rockets after moving Joe Ingles to the point guard position. Portland matches up well with the Kings, with traditional 2-big lineup and a few guys who can put the ball in the basket. This team is heating up at the right time, and with the Kings actually being lower rated than their first round matchup of the Rockets, Portland is going to be keen to keep writing their cinderella story.
This matchup will be a tougher test for the Kings than they had in the first round as the Blazers are well-constructed and have momentum after 4 straight wins. Sacramento showed some vulnerability in the first round, and has to be a little worried here despite Portland not having the firepower than the Warriors had. The Blazers have nothing to lose and I would imagine might try some unique lineups if they fall behind in the series.
Prediction: Competitive Kings win
3. Memphis Grizzlies
4-1, +9.4 differential, 46.2% FG, 417 lineup rating
2. Denver Nuggets
4-1, +17.0 differential, 47.7% FG, 434 lineup rating
All eyes were on the Bucks' dismantling of the Hawks in the first round, but the Nuggets quietly flexed their muscles themselves. Pascal Siakam has emerged as a force to be reckoned with, putting up a league-leading 30.0 ppg against the Spurs, with James Harden not far behind at 25.8. On the defensive end, the Nuggets were able to lock down Luka Doncic (22.2 ppg) and took just about every other Spur out of the equation. Denver has to like its chances of making it back to the finals this year with Golden State and Memphis both suffering significant injuries, but this matchup does still pose some risk to the Nuggets' goal.
The Grizzlies did play a first round series, but it seems like most GMs slept through it. Memphis methodically took down a Mavericks team that found themselves a bit out of their league, with three players (Jokic, Mitchell, Bogdanovic) all averaging above 20 ppg. Perhaps most impressive for Memphis is that the team shot better from three (insane 47.9%) than from two (45.2%), and made almost half of their field goals from deep. The Grizzlies probably don't consider themselves a contender this year with KAT out, but in a weakened conference, they might actually have their best chance yet of making the D5 finals.
This matchup features two of the better offenses in the league and will see a lot of points on the board. Denver is still the team to beat in the West until proven otherwise, and with the Grizzlies lacking KAT, they might not have enough firepower to hang with Harden and Siakam.
Prediction: Semi-competitive Nuggets win