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Post by George Gervin on Jan 19, 2020 17:24:50 GMT
I’m going to be that guy and put this one up, cause despite his still gaudy counting stats, there’s a real decline happening here for Russ and I don’t think he should be in that 90+ tier anymore. I’m going to start with the counting stats before getting into other arguments: - 25.1 PPG (up from last year, and on par with 2017, but it’s a misleading 25 PPG)
- 7.2 APG (still nice, but down almost 3 apg from his last four seasons averages of more than 10.5 apg, and lowest since 2013)
- 7.8 RPG (great for a guard, but way down from his peak numbers and lowest since 2015)
- 3.8 TO per game (highest in his career)
- 43% FG/24% 3P FG (on 5 a game)/ 77% FT (6.5 attempts, which is declining since a 2016 peak)
- 46% eFG% (has declined 5 straight seasons from a 2015 peak)
On paper, he is a stat stuffing guard who is inefficient with few peers in what can be done on the stat sheet. However, his decline in shooting— particularly the 3 pointers and his year over year FTA decline— signal a player physically losing the ability to blow by guys and get the lift that made him an MVP whirling dervish for 3 seasons. When we get to the advanced stats, it bolsters the declining player argument:- 19.1 PER (has declined four straight years)
- 51% Ts (declined four straight years)
- 34% AST and 11% TRB (both declined over last four years despite the same or increased usage rate)
- WS/48 is 0.90 thus far in 2019-20, and since a 2015 peak of .245 he has declined at least 15% each year in this stat
- BPM, the most damning against Russ: 0.7 so far. This is the guy who had a 15.6 BPM in 2016, and he has fallen off a cliff since then in this area (8.2 in 2017, 6.5 last year)
And now we come to the eye test: when Harden is solo, and Russ sits, the Rockets are a whopping 12.7 pts better on offense. When it’s Harden sitting and Russ running the show, the Rockets are -14.5 worse on offense. It’s painfully obvious that Houston runs better with Harden, and Russ at times takes away from the whole 1 ball handler 4 supporting guys mantra Houston has employed when he hoists a patented mid range clunker.
In short, Russ is a guy who we all agree gives balls to the wall, max effort, and if he’s on your team you know he will leave it all on the line. However, his decline is happening before our eyes and he’s not the same guy who was a worldbeater on OKC.
Current Rating: 93
Proposed Rating: 88
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Post by Jared Montini on Jan 19, 2020 18:52:51 GMT
90
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Post by Tom Izzo on Jan 19, 2020 19:34:58 GMT
90
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Kevin Hollis
Former Thunder GM for 7 years
All Star
Posts: 2,838 
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Post by Kevin Hollis on Jan 19, 2020 20:00:29 GMT
89. A player like him is going to decline a lot faster than normal because it’s all based on athleticism, he can’t shoot.
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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Jan 19, 2020 20:12:32 GMT
85
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Post by Jerry West on Jan 19, 2020 20:51:20 GMT
89
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Post by James Kay on Jan 19, 2020 22:18:37 GMT
Only reason I never put Middleton up for an increase was because I know there would be a retaliatory thread made ASAP and I was right lol.
92.
He's played less than half a season's worth of games on his first new team after 11 years in OKC. He started off rather poorly recovering from injury shooting sub 40% from the field in his first 19 games, but he's been much improved shooting 48% from the field in his next 16.
If you actually watch the Rockets you'd see that if there's a problem with this team it's not Westbrook.
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Post by George Gervin on Jan 19, 2020 22:22:30 GMT
Only reason I never put Middleton up for an increase was because I know there would be a retaliatory thread made ASAP and I was right lol. 92. He's played less than half a season's worth of games on his first new team after 11 years in OKC. He started off rather poorly recovering from injury shooting sub 40% from the field in his first 19 games, but he's been much improved shooting 48% from the field in his next 16. If you actually watch the Rockets you'd see that if there's a problem with this team it's not Westbrook. For what it’s worth, it wasn’t retaliation for Middleton lol. But he’s been on a year over year decline for four straight years now, and his shooting is woeful. I just don’t buy that the change of scenery is the only driver here— he’s a 31 yr old PG with five previous knee surgeries and a history of shooting inefficiencies masked by his ability to get to the rim at will. He can’t do that as much any more, and it’s hampering his overall effectiveness in my opinion. |
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Larry Bird
 Indiana Pacers
Starter
Posts: 1,672
Mar 5, 2024 13:29:26 GMT
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Post by Larry Bird on Jan 19, 2020 22:22:43 GMT
92.
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Post by James Kay on Jan 19, 2020 22:28:29 GMT
Only reason I never put Middleton up for an increase was because I know there would be a retaliatory thread made ASAP and I was right lol. 92. He's played less than half a season's worth of games on his first new team after 11 years in OKC. He started off rather poorly recovering from injury shooting sub 40% from the field in his first 19 games, but he's been much improved shooting 48% from the field in his next 16. If you actually watch the Rockets you'd see that if there's a problem with this team it's not Westbrook. For what it’s worth, it wasn’t retaliation for Middleton lol. But he’s been on a year over year decline for four straight years now, and his shooting is woeful. I just don’t buy that the change of scenario is the only driver here— he’s a 31 yr old PG with five previous knee surgeries and a history of shooting inefficiencies masked by his ability to get to the rim at will. He can’t do that as much any more, and it’s hampering his overall effectiveness in my opinion. He underwent surgery on his hand and knee this off-season. Joined a new team for the first time in 12 years. Has the most ball dominant teammate of his career thus far. But yes, the guard averaging 29/7/7 on league average TS% over the past 15 games deserves a 5 point decrease. What a joke. |
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Post by George Gervin on Jan 19, 2020 22:40:36 GMT
For what it’s worth, it wasn’t retaliation for Middleton lol. But he’s been on a year over year decline for four straight years now, and his shooting is woeful. I just don’t buy that the change of scenario is the only driver here— he’s a 31 yr old PG with five previous knee surgeries and a history of shooting inefficiencies masked by his ability to get to the rim at will. He can’t do that as much any more, and it’s hampering his overall effectiveness in my opinion. He underwent surgery on his hand and knee this off-season. Joined a new team for the first time in 12 years. Has the most ball dominant teammate of his career thus far. But yes, the guard averaging 29/7/7 on league average TS% over the past 15 games deserves a 5 point decrease. What a joke. He’s 21% on catch and shoot opportunities this year, which at his current attempt rate would be the worst ever in a player pool of 50 or more such attempts in a season. That’s partially fit next to Harden, but that’s also his shooting has fallen off significantly the last couple of seasons. The Rockets average close to 120 pts per 100 possessions when Russ is off the floor, and 109 pts per 100 possessions when he’s on. That’s not a player providing a net positive despite the stats. |
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Post by James Kay on Jan 19, 2020 23:06:18 GMT
He’s 21% on catch and shoot opportunities this year, which at his current attempt rate would be the worst ever in a player pool of 50 or more such attempts in a season. That’s partially fit next to Harden, but that’s also his shooting has fallen off significantly the last couple of seasons. The Rockets average close to 120 pts per 100 possessions when Russ is off the floor, and 109 pts per 100 possessions when he’s on. That’s not a player providing a net positive despite the stats. NBA Stats shows him at 24.7%, not 21%, which is negligble, but makes me question how many other stats you've exaggerated. Besides, out of that player pool of ~220 players, he's in the bottom 50 of attempts per game. He's not a spot up shooter. Oh no. And again, you're citing these on/off stats for a player who started the season coming off surgeries on a brand new team next to the highest usage player of the modern era. Why does he deserve to be crucified for a slow start? Since Dec.7 the Rockets are 6.7 points better with Russ on the floor than without. A higher net rating than Harden, by a good deal, actually. |
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Post by George Gervin on Jan 19, 2020 23:12:37 GMT
He’s 21% on catch and shoot opportunities this year, which at his current attempt rate would be the worst ever in a player pool of 50 or more such attempts in a season. That’s partially fit next to Harden, but that’s also his shooting has fallen off significantly the last couple of seasons. The Rockets average close to 120 pts per 100 possessions when Russ is off the floor, and 109 pts per 100 possessions when he’s on. That’s not a player providing a net positive despite the stats. NBA Stats shows him at 24.7%, not 21%, which is negligble, but makes me question how many other stats you've exaggerated. Besides, out of that player pool of ~220 players, he's in the bottom 50 of attempts per game. He's not a spot up shooter. Oh no. And again, you're citing these on/off stats for a player who started the season coming off surgeries on a brand new team next to the highest usage player of the modern era. Why does he deserve to be crucified for a slow start? Since Dec.7 the Rockets are 6.7 points better with Russ on the floor than without. A higher net rating than Harden, by a good deal, actually. You look at this profile from basketball reference from his MVP season to now— advanced and counting stats— and there is an objective, not subjective, decline in his play. There is no embellishment on my part with respect to his stats. They are what they are, and you can tie back from the original post to his Basketball Reference profile. www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/westbru01.html |
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Post by James Kay on Jan 19, 2020 23:24:31 GMT
NBA Stats shows him at 24.7%, not 21%, which is negligble, but makes me question how many other stats you've exaggerated. Besides, out of that player pool of ~220 players, he's in the bottom 50 of attempts per game. He's not a spot up shooter. Oh no. And again, you're citing these on/off stats for a player who started the season coming off surgeries on a brand new team next to the highest usage player of the modern era. Why does he deserve to be crucified for a slow start? Since Dec.7 the Rockets are 6.7 points better with Russ on the floor than without. A higher net rating than Harden, by a good deal, actually. You look at this profile from basketball reference from his MVP season to now— advanced and counting stats— and there is an objective, not subjective, decline in his play. There is no embellishment on my part with respect to his stats. They are what they are, and you can tie back from the original post to his Basketball Reference profile. www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/westbru01.htmlThank you for linking me to basketball reference, his main page. Really clarifying. I don';t see any objective decline in his play. He absolutely peaked in his MVP season when he had a VORP of 12.4, but 7.6 (14-15), 8.3(15-16), 12.4 (16-17 MVP), 7.5 (17-18), 5.6 (18-19) does not show a decline in his play. Is it an objective decline to note that last year he shot his highest FG% at the rim of his entire career? You're ignoring most of what I'm saying, so I probably won't respond after this. But you keep citing on/off numbers when the on/off numbers for his time in OKC were always fantastic and while the numbers in Houston absolutely started poor, they no longer are. Since Dec. 7 (last 15 games): Westbrook on/Harden off: +7.5 Harden on/Westbrook off: +/-0. www.pbpstats.com/wowy/nba?0Exactly1OffFloor=201566&1Exactly1OnFloor=201935&TeamId=1610612745&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&Type=Team&FromDate=2019-12-07&ToDate=2020-01-20 |
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Post by Walt Frazier on Jan 19, 2020 23:38:00 GMT
I'll go 91.5
There's some decline in his insane counting stats, but I'm ready to pop back up to 93 (ish) if he keeps his recent turnaround up.
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Amare Stoudemire
 Sacramento Kings
Starter
Posts: 2,416
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Post by Amare Stoudemire on Jan 20, 2020 15:13:28 GMT
92
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Post by James Kay on Jan 21, 2020 5:27:01 GMT
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/ermj53/russell_westbrook_vs_the_oklahoma_city_thunder_32/
boooo
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Jan 21, 2020 5:34:02 GMT
90. This dude has the most annoying stats on the planet. I have to say we rated Westbrook at 93 based on his triple double life he was living. But god damn is he shooting 3s like shit. His O rating is awful and his defense is OK. That said I can't see a world in this season where he's under a 90. He's still uber athletic, his 3pt dropped but his FT went up. IDK. This might be more of a feeling one.
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Jan 21, 2020 13:13:07 GMT
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/ermj53/russell_westbrook_vs_the_oklahoma_city_thunder_32/ boooo He had the worst +/- in the game  |
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Post by Hanamichi Sakuragi on Jan 21, 2020 14:23:29 GMT
88
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Post by George Gervin on Jan 21, 2020 15:02:28 GMT
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/ermj53/russell_westbrook_vs_the_oklahoma_city_thunder_32/ boooo He had the worst +/- in the game And he had this low IQ play of the night to seal the game for OKC |
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Post by James Kay on Jan 21, 2020 18:11:32 GMT
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/ermj53/russell_westbrook_vs_the_oklahoma_city_thunder_32/ boooo He had the worst +/- in the game Single game +/- stats are worse than useless |
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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Jan 21, 2020 19:20:43 GMT
He had the worst +/- in the game Single game +/- stats are worse than useless So are Triple Doubles |
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Post by James Kay on Jan 21, 2020 19:56:09 GMT
Single game +/- stats are worse than useless So are Triple Doubles Says the guy posting multiple 40-15 losses |
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Post by James Kay on Jan 25, 2020 22:37:12 GMT
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Post by Mark Price on Jan 25, 2020 22:38:56 GMT
89
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Post by James Kay on Feb 1, 2020 22:07:40 GMT
Make his 3PT incredibly low but this thread is otherwise embarrassing.
Westbrook has been absolutely dominant lately
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Post by Tom Izzo on Feb 1, 2020 22:17:19 GMT
The Rockets are out here winning games with Thabo Sefolosha at center.
What a time to be alive
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Feb 2, 2020 19:31:09 GMT
Just watched their game vs the Mavs (missing Luka) on Friday. The whole team just fits together like shit tbh.
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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Feb 2, 2020 19:56:48 GMT
Just watched their game vs the Mavs (missing Luka) on Friday. The whole team just fits together like shit tbh. I know he had a personal issue with Harden but it was a huge mistake to trade CP3 for Westbrook. If the rockets just ran it back from last season they'd be among the clippers, bucks and Lakers as championship favorites |
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