TJ Warren

[Josh Barber]

Current Rating: 82

17.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.4 bpg
50.5% FG
37.3% 3P
83.8% FT

This is probably going to come off as petty, but we seem to be increasing everyone's rating this year and TJ Warren is sitting at 82 while a lot of GMs have voted an extremely similar player in Jaylen Brown to get an 85. I'm not trying to make this an attack on Brown, but simply pointing out that if Brown in an 85 then Warren should be as well.

The difference between the two is that TJ Warren is actually a positive impact on his team (On/Off +2.9 whereas the Celtics are actually better when Brown doesn't play at On/Off -3.1). This is due to TJ Warren actually being a positive defender (Opp Off Rating drops -0.4 when Warren is on the court) versus Brown being one of the worst defenders in the league (Opp Off Rating increases +6.3 when Brown is on the court). Both players play very similar roles (2nd/3rd option type guys) on very similar teams (tier 2 competitive in the East). TJ Warren has also been putting up these stats for 3 seasons now, whereas Brown has done it for 3 months.

In his defense, Brown does average slightly more points and rebounds, but he also has a higher usage rate.

So yea, I'm probably being petty, or at least pointing out the absurdity of some of these ratings increases, but most GMs rated Brown an 84 or 85, so Warren should get that too (if not higher).

Proposed Rating: 85

[George Gervin]

85

[Jerry West]

81, it hurts my brain how people value some young players over older established guys like Lowry or CP3, especially while they are still playing well this year. Ingram, Warren or Brown don't contribute more to winning than any of them.

Is Warren even close to their level? Is he better than guys like Middleton? Or Zach LaVine? Klay Thompson is an 85. I think we are overreacting young guys a lot this year. Imo if I'm a GM I might even take a guy like Ingles over TJ Warren for this season only.

Edit: For whatever that's worth, and 2K20 isn't really that great, TJ Warren is an 80 in 2K, do we really believe he is at that fringe All-Star level? A guy with -0.2 BPM. And a 16.0 PER (Worst PER in his last 3 years). We are voting for the 5th best player on the Pacers to be an 85.

[Brian Scalabrine]

This is a perfect example of the wrong way to use on-off numbers.

The sample sizes you listed are extremely small. Borderline unusable. They are also greatly affected by the lineups each player plays with.

Anyone who's watched Tj and jaylen play knows that jaylen is a vastly superior defender. One of Warren's flaws as a player is that he is a below average defender. Meanwhile Jaylen is extremely impactful on that end of the floor.

82 is more than fine for TJ

[Kevin Hollis]

82

[Josh Barber]

Jan 3, 2020 16:13:52 GMT Jerry West said:

81, it hurts my brain how people value some young players over older established guys like Lowry or CP3, especially while they are still playing well this year. Ingram, Warren or Brown don't contribute more to winning than any of them.

I 100% agree, but how did you vote Brown an 85 then? How is he 4 points better than Warren?

[Larry Bird]

82

[Jerry West]

Jan 3, 2020 16:43:32 GMT Josh Barber said:

Jan 3, 2020 16:13:52 GMT Jerry West said:

81, it hurts my brain how people value some young players over older established guys like Lowry or CP3, especially while they are still playing well this year. Ingram, Warren or Brown don't contribute more to winning than any of them.

I 100% agree, but how did you vote Brown an 85 then? How is he 4 points better than Warren?

To me Brown is at that fringe All-Star Level, I've seen him play in a good team and contributing to wins and him being impactful on a deep playoff run. BPM, VORP, PER, WS, ORTG, DRTG, RPM, RAPTOR, there is not a single advanced stat that Warren is better, if 2 players are close in level of contribution Warren would at least lead in 2 or 3 stats there.

So based of stats and contributions alone I think Brown is 3 points ahead of Warren. Maybe 4 is a strech but Warren playing on a horrible Phoenix team so far and now being on the 6th seed in the bad East (on a team where is the 5th best player) doesn't do much for me. All subjective obviously, but I can say (In my personal opinion) that right now there is still a considerable gap between Warren and Jaylen. Maybe things would be different if Brown was drafted by the Suns and Warren by the Celtics.

[Larry Bird]

Agreed.

[Amare Stoudemire]

82

[Mark Price]

84. I'm glad I dont have to get worked up for the TJ Warren stock watch anymore. You have to be a wing on the Celtics/Lakers to get a good rating.

*not a shot at anyone here. More repeating the national sentiment.

[Ian Noble]

At risk of entering into a Jaylen/Ingram/Warren shitstorm that I don't have the time/energy to defend at length...

81

It's not just about stats.

[Josh Barber]

Jan 7, 2020 20:01:16 GMT Ian Noble said:

At risk of entering into a Jaylen/Ingram/Warren shitstorm that I don't have the time/energy to defend at length...

81

It's not just about stats.

bro WUT

[Bryan Colangelo]

85

[James Kay]

I just got way too involved in trying to figure out where to rank all these wings. I wanted to compare the middling wings - not the bottom of the barrel players, but not the Durant, LBJ, Kawhi, Butler, PGs, etc, either.

Arbitrarily I decided that the following players were the top 25 non-star "wing" players, which I, also arbitrarily, determined were players that were mainly SG/SF, with the occasional exception for certain players who spend a little time at PF like Covington, or the Bridgeses.

I then compiled the per game box score data, as well as the advanced stats of PER, TS%, WS, WS/48, OBPM, DBPM, VORP, and RAPTOR rating. I then ranked how the players measured up in RBD, AST, STL, BLK, TO, PF, PTs, as well as the advanced stats, and gave them an average ranking. This is definitely flawed and very far from a perfect way to rank them but it was interesting to see how they performed against each other.

Here's a download link for the excel file if you want to check it out:
megaup.net/1u8v7/NBA_Wings_Comparison,_Values.xlsx


Based on their rankings in all these stats, I feel that, based on this season alone, with slight adjustments made for minutes played or outlier stats really swaying their position, these players can be ranked in the following 5 tiers of 5 players each.


Tier 1: Brandon Ingram, Khris Middleton, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Tobias Harris

Tier 2: Zach Lavine, Will Barton, Kelly Oubre, Joe Ingles, Jeremy Lamb

Tier 3: TJ Warren, O.G. Anunoby, Robert Covington, Danny Green, Evan Fournier

Tier 4: Tim Hardaway Jr., Buddy Hield, Luke Kennard, Andrew Wiggins, Mikal Bridges

Tier 5: Bogdan Bogdonavic, Josh Richardson, Gary Harris, Miles Bridges, DeAndre' Bembry

What I noticed: Tobias Harris is the highest rated at 86, which is somewhat strange, although he is definitely Tier 1. Will Barton appears to be at least slightly underrated with a D5 rating of 78, as well as Kelly Oubre (76), Joe Ingles (77), Luke Kennard (72), and Mikal Bridges (72). A 3-4 point ratings boost is probably appropriate for all of them.

However, just because I ranked them into tiers doesn't mean that each tier needs to be separated by a large ratings difference. These players are all wings and have arguably the widest skillsets of all NBA players so their ratings should reflect that. Tier 5 players are still deserving of probably 77-80 ratings based on their various skills.

---

In regard to TJ Warren specifically, he is very efficient - a fantastic FG%, low turnovers, and a pretty solid 3P% (especially for someone who did not always have that in his arsenal) - but these need to be viewed in context of his reluctance to shoot many threes (bottom 3) and his abysmal playmaking (bottom 3). Advanced stats rate his defense as decidedly below average, and he is a fairly weak rebounder, actually.

I think remaining at 82 is appropriate for him.

[Jerry West]

Joe Ingles is in the 2nd tier and a proved vet and it's not even gonna get an 80 rating

[Jared Montini]

82

[Jay Z]

Tier 1: Brandon Ingram (80 > 84.89), Khris Middleton (84), Jaylen Brown (80 > 84.38), Jayson Tatum (82), Tobias Harris
(86)


Tier 2: Zach Lavine (81), Will Barton (78), Kelly Oubre (76 > 79.09), Joe Ingles (77 > 79.53), Jeremy Lamb
(78)


Tier 3: TJ Warren (82 > 82.56), O.G. Anunoby (75 > 78.5), Robert Covington (80), Danny Green (79), Evan Fournier
(79)


Tier 4: Tim Hardaway Jr. (78), Buddy Hield (81), Luke Kennard (72), Andrew Wiggins (82), Mikal Bridges
(72)


Tier 5: Bogdan Bogdonavic (80), Josh Richardson (79), Gary Harris (80), Miles Bridges (73), DeAndre' Bembry
(69)


I was more or less in agreement with James' tiers here so I took a look at ratings/current submissions since I was kind of disappointed in Oubre not breaking into the 80's mark in his current stock watch.  Green is the "current rating" > "new rating if voting ended right now".  Should be the correct #'s with the highest and lowest score dropping off.

[Walt Frazier]

I would vote 82 or 83, likely 82. something or other.

No matter what I would have voted in that range, he would have been raised to an 83, just barely.

Will be raised to an 83.

THREAD CLOSED - Ian Noble