Andrew Wiggins

[Brian Scalabrine]

Stats per game: (Rankings out of all G-F, F-G, Fs playing at least 30 MPG) 

17.7 PPG (16/33)
4.2 RPG (28/33)
1.8 APG (26/33)
1.7 Turnovers per game (21/33)
31.6% 3P (28/33)
63.4% FT (30/33)
48.2% EFG (32/33)
50.5% True Shooting (33/33)
13.0 PER (29/33)
-2.8 Box Plus Minus (32/33)
-0.5 VORP (32/33)
.03 WS/48 (33/33)
101 Offensive Rating (33/33)
113 Defensive Rating (31/33)

538 article identifying Andrew Wiggins as the worst defensive player in the NBA last season: fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nba-haters-ball/

Andrew Wiggins is in the bottom half of all players in his position at literally every statistic.
In every shooting efficiency stat he is in the bottom 5. 
In every advanced stat he is in the bottom 4.

In other words: Andrew Wiggins is a bad, inefficient scorer. He cannot shoot 3's. He cannot shoot free throws. He is a bad rebounder. He cannot pass. He is a horrendous defender. 

Every minute Andrew is on the floor he hurts his team. He is a below average player right now. 

Current Rating: 82

Suggested Rating: 77

And that is being quite generous. 

[Deleted]

shots fired

[Chauncey Billups]

Odd timing. 82

[Jeremiah Hill]

Been saying this since we started him out so damned high from the beginning.

77

[Andrei Kirilenko]

Wiggins FG% is down overall... but his 2p% is almost a career high. The issue is he is shooting more threes this year compared to last year. Because Butler and KAT take up the lane and Thibs tells Wiggins to stand in the corner. Actually Wiggins is near a career high for eFG%.

He is playing the best defense of his career with DBPM. He has the highest defensive rebounding rate of his career. Highest steal % of career. Highest block % of career. Lowest turnover % of career.

So what's the difference? Look at his usage. he has gone from almost 30% usage to only 23%. Obviously his stats will be down. But he is on a winning team now, and plays the most minutes on that team. His +/- is career high. He is learning under Butler. He has all the athletic tools, and is going to be an absolute star IMO. He is a surefire allstar and perhaps even a superstar.

People look at his PPG and say he is having a bad year. Honestly his shot selection is different and it is hurting him, but he isn't a worse player than last year. Thats silly. The kid is 22 and is putting in significant minutes on a playoff team. Rating him below an 80 is just silly. 82 is fine for Wiggins.

[Andrei Kirilenko]

I also encourage everyone to take Brian’s post with a grain of salt. You include all guards or forwards who play over 30 minutes a game, which means you are drawing from a pool of the best players at 4 different positions (because the best players will theoretically play the most minutes) and then you conclude that Wiggins is at the bottom half of those players... so all you’ve really concluded is that he is not a top 15 guard or forward in the NBA, which isn’t really any shocking conclusion at all for a 22 year old.

[Brian Scalabrine]

Feb 15, 2018 20:44:05 GMT Andrei Kirilenko said:

Actually Wiggins is near a career high for eFG%. 

So he is at a career high in EFG% but he ranks 32nd of out 33 forwards in that stat? That's terrible. 

    

Andrei Kirilenko said:

He is playing the best defense of his career with DBPM.

 
Yet his DBPM is still 28th out of 33 forwards. That's still terrible. His ESPN Defensive Real Plus Minus is -1.30. That is 130th in the NBA among SFs (ESPN wouldn't let me restrict by minutes so thats out of everyone who's played this season). But for context that's worse than Michael Beasley. 

    

Andrei Kirilenko said:

He has the highest defensive rebounding rate of his career. Highest steal % of career. Highest block % of career.Lowest turnover % of career..

He ranks 31st out of 33 forwards in defensive rebounding rate. That's terrible.
He ranks 19th of out 33 forwards in steal rate, not as bad as his other stats but still far below average. 
He ranks 12th out of 33 forwards in block rate. That is slightly above average. 
He ranks 63rd out of all SFs in assist to turnover ratio. I couldn't restrict the data set because he isn't on pace for 200 assists and does not qualify. This number is lower than Corey Brewer, Thabo Sefolosha and rookie Dillon Brooks. 

Andrei Kirilenko said:

I also encourage everyone to take Brian’s post with a grain of salt. You include all guards or forwards who play over 30 minutes a game, which means you are drawing from a pool of the best players at 4 different positions

Here is the complete list of the players who qualified just to show there is no bias. Basketball Ref doesn't sort by SF so this was the only way I could do it. 

Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Giannis, Lebron, Ben Simmons, Jayson Tatum, Taj Gibson, Carmelo Anthony, Robert Covington, Aaron Gordon, Brandon Ingram, Otto Porter, TJ Warren, Wilson Chandler, Paul George, Klay Thompson, Thaddeus Young, Jaylen Brown, Jimmy Butler, Tyreke Evans, Danilo Gallinari, Nicolas Batum, Blake Griffin, Tobias Harris, Dario Saric, DeMar Derozan, Evan Fournier, Harrison Barnes, Joe Ingles, Khris Middleton, Trevor Airza and Bogdan Bogdanovic. 

Wiggins is currently rated higher than Ingram, Tatum, Gibson, Covington, Gordon, Porter, Warren, Chandler, Young, Brown, Gallinari, Harris, Saric, Fournier, Barnes, Ingles, Ariza and Bogdanovic despite being behind most all these players in pretty much all forms of statistics both advanced and traditional. 

Try to explain away what you want but the statistics don't lie. Wiggins is rated higher than players that he is clearly worse than. 

Everyone should take a look at the stats and come to their own conclusion. I am only here to provide information. 

[Hanamichi Sakuragi]

77 is around 90 points decrease. What attributes are you going to decrease, Brian? His physicals should never be touch!

Show it.

[Kevin Hollis]

80

[Walt Frazier]

Feb 16, 2018 0:14:42 GMT Hanamichi Sakuragi said:

77 is around 90 points decrease. What attributes are you going to decrease, Brian? His physicals should never be touch!

Show it.

Just for fun, I started to try to take him down to a 77. I think we kind of can't, really. I mean we can, but there'd be a few things that are too unfair. We could do about a 4-point decrease (although my first pass only took him down about 50 points, which is 3.3333 OVR points). So, I could see him going down 60 points, or 4 OVR. Here's what that would look like, ish.

Old Rating: 82
New Rating: 78

60 Point Decrease

Rt - Category

82 - Overall Rating - 78
1262 - Total Value - 1192
70 - FG Shoot - 60
76 - 3Pt Shoot - 64
76 - FT Shoot - 63
89 - Dunking - 89
50 - In Scoring - 60
33 - O Rebound - 28
90 - Jumping - 90
67 - Strength - 67
90 - Quickness - 90
85 - Speed - 85
31 - Passing - 26
71 - Dribbling - 71
75 - O Aware - 75
45 - D Rebound - 40
55 - Stealing - 45
28 - Blocking - 33
76 - D Aware - 61
90 - Stamina - 90
70 - Hardiness - 70

25 - Range - 23
18 - % of 3Pt - 27
7 - Score Area - 7

[Walt Frazier]

I vote...below

[Alex English]

82. That's really not that high of a rating. There are plenty of questions with Wiggins, and he's nearing the time where possibilities and opportunities start to become unrealized potential, but I still think he's earned an 80+ overall.

[Allen Iverson]

77.5

[Andrei Kirilenko]

Feb 16, 2018 2:02:24 GMT Walt Frazier said:

I vote 78.

Just to confirm, you are voting Andrew Wiggins the same as you voted Jae Crowder? This whole thread feels like a witch hunt.

[Andrei Kirilenko]

He averages 24/4/2 last year on 45% shooting, gets a brand new team with a lot of players he has to adjust to, and instead of thinking that he is just adjusting to a new team you all conclude that a 22 year old has gotten 4 or 5 ratings worse this year?

This thread is a joke.

[Charles Barkley]

ATHLETIC WINGS NEED MORE POINTS

Please stop looking at the OVR as an indicator into how good they are, and begin looking at it to just how many point they have in their player build.

Is Wiggins overrated? Yes. But is he properly rated here? Yes.

Wings, in general, need to be 2 or 3 more points higher than a guard or big, generally with some exceptions, obviously

I am for a system where instead of an 82 next to his name, you see just slider bars and categories.

These numbers are trash

[Ian Noble]

Feb 16, 2018 4:51:10 GMT Andrei Kirilenko said:

He averages 24/4/2 last year on 45% shooting, gets a brand new team with a lot of players he has to adjust to, and instead of thinking that he is just adjusting to a new team you all conclude that a 22 year old has gotten 4 or 5 ratings worse this year?

This thread is a joke.

This is why I vote for no change. This is one of the most extreme knee-jerk reactions to a player's recent performances I can remember seeing. As a floor I see Wiggins as Rudy Gay, except last year he averaged more PPG than Rudy Gay ever has and he did it at age 21.

82

I also agree with Josh this does seem like some weird witch hunt because you're all butthurt about not getting Kristaps or something, when that deal would be fair even if Wiggins wasn't included, I sure as hell wouldn't have pulled the trigger anyway.

[Walt Frazier]

Feb 16, 2018 4:48:19 GMT Andrei Kirilenko said:

Feb 16, 2018 2:02:24 GMT Walt Frazier said:

I vote 78.

Just to confirm, you are voting Andrew Wiggins the same as you voted Jae Crowder? This whole thread feels like a witch hunt.

That's a super awkward and poor player comparison tbh. Jae, on a down year after growing his game and proving his game over two full seasons, is still shooting the FT at I think 84% and 3pt at around 34%. Wiggins is at 63 or 64 % ft and 31% 3pt? That is a difference of 2 OVR points there, which you can throw onto Athletic stats for Wiggins to even them out a bit.

That being said, I got caught up in my post to try to take Wiggins down to a 77 and as I said that was a quick look over. I'll change my vote but I truly am not a fan of Wiggins, never really have been.

I'll go 80 and throw more points on his athletic stats and Dunk.

[Walt Frazier]

Feb 16, 2018 4:51:10 GMT Andrei Kirilenko said:

He averages 24/4/2 last year on 45% shooting, gets a brand new team with a lot of players he has to adjust to, and instead of thinking that he is just adjusting to a new team you all conclude that a 22 year old has gotten 4 or 5 ratings worse this year?

This thread is a joke.

Btw, kind of a similar thing happened in the Jae Crowder thread. In a very short time away from the poisonous Cavs of earlier this year, Jae looks like his old self immediately. He's also not at an age when players typically fall off quickly.

[Walt Frazier]

Feb 16, 2018 6:51:06 GMT Charles Barkley said:

ATHLETIC WINGS NEED MORE POINTS

Please stop looking at the OVR as an indicator into how good they are, and begin looking at it to just how many point they have in their player build.

Is Wiggins overrated? Yes. But is he properly rated here? Yes.

Wings, in general, need to be 2 or 3 more points higher than a guard or big, generally with some exceptions, obviously

I am for a system where instead of an 82 next to his name, you see just slider bars and categories.

These numbers are trash

Charles, you know I agree with you generally, but Wiggins happens to not rebound or pass or shoot all that well. Even steals are just below average for a wing, and while he blocks well for a wing, it's still not a massive number that gets a ton of points. Doesn't play defense too well either.

He's athletic and can dunk. He feasted last year on a much worse overall team. He's just not that skilled of a player imo.

He has time to change that but it's no guarantee he will.

I'll gladly vote him up when he develops more skills.

[Jared Montini]

You guys said wings need more points so imma go 80.25. He's not good yet but since he's so athletic I'll vote him above an 80

[Alex English]

I kind of agree with Josh, things sometimes turn into a circlejerk around here, and Wiggins has long been a very unpopular player with the people in D5. Even if we forget about his past seasons, how many GMs have a player on their team averaging 17+ ppg that they don't think is an 80+ player? I think people sometimes lose a broader perspective when in the middle of hating on a guy.

[Deleted]

Feb 16, 2018 15:30:20 GMT Alex English said:

I kind of agree with Josh, things sometimes turn into a circlejerk around here, and Wiggins has long been a very unpopular player with the people in D5. Even if we forget about his past seasons, how many GMs have a player on their team averaging 17+ ppg that they don't think is an 80+ player? I think people sometimes lose a broader perspective when in the middle of hating on a guy.

Did you think okafor was a 80+ player his rookie year cause he averaged 17ppg. His advanced stats and the eye test told a different story though, as they also do with wiggins.

78

[Chauncey Billups]

No way he's below an 80, especially if these wings need a few extra points. Edited my vote above to an 82, no change.

[Alex English]

Feb 16, 2018 15:36:33 GMT @riogho said:

Did you think okafor was a 80+ player his rookie year cause he averaged 17ppg. His advanced stats and the eye test told a different story though, as they also do with wiggins.

78

17 points on one of the worst teams in the history of the NBA is very different from 17 points on a team winning almost 60% of their games.

Even still, I bet if we were to rewind, the GM who owned Okafor in his rookie year probably thought they had a great prospect and a potential future star. Turns out he can't do a god damned thing well except low post offense.

[James Kay]

81

[Brian Scalabrine]

At the risk of being labeled as obsessive, here are Wiggins stats for the 2016-17 season, before Jimmy Butler arrived. I used G-F, F and F-G positions again on basketball ref as that is the only way to do it.

Make of this what you will. 

23.6 PPG (7/35)
4.0 RPG (33/35)
2.3 APG (19/35)
2.3 Turnovers per game (28/35)
35.6% 3P (18/35)
76% FT (27/35)
48.4% EFG (29/35)
53.4% TS (29/35)
16.5 PER (20/35)
-2.7 Box Plus Minus (34/35)
-0.6 VORP (35/35)
.066 WS/48 (33/35)
107 Offensive rating (26/35)
115 Defensive Rating (35/35)
1.56 ESPN Real Offensive Plus Minus (11th among all SFs)
-3.16 ESPN Real Defensive Plus Minus (69th among all SFs)

[Jeremiah Hill]

Feb 16, 2018 9:25:48 GMT Ian Noble said:

Feb 16, 2018 4:51:10 GMT Andrei Kirilenko said:

He averages 24/4/2 last year on 45% shooting, gets a brand new team with a lot of players he has to adjust to, and instead of thinking that he is just adjusting to a new team you all conclude that a 22 year old has gotten 4 or 5 ratings worse this year?

This thread is a joke.

This is why I vote for no change. This is one of the most extreme knee-jerk reactions to a player's recent performances I can remember seeing. As a floor I see Wiggins as Rudy Gay, except last year he averaged more PPG than Rudy Gay ever has and he did it at age 21.

82

I also agree with Josh this does seem like some weird witch hunt because you're all butthurt about not getting Kristaps or something, when that deal would be fair even if Wiggins wasn't included, I sure as hell wouldn't have pulled the trigger anyway.

Its not a knee jerk reaction its putting him where he should have been rated coming into the league. I said he was overrated then and he's overrated now.

He's terrible, he can jump high whoopty fuckin dooo. There is thing thing where you have raw athleticism and then you have to transfer that into game use athleticism.

Wiggins does not do that at all. He should have much higher rebound numbers but since all he can do is jump and otherwise is rather weak he can't do that.

Whens the last time you've seen him sky over someone for any basketball related play, dunk or rebound? I'm sure he has a poster or two but with as athletic as everyone says he is its really not that common is it? If he's so athletic why does he get blown by on defense so consistently?

These were valid concerns when he was drafted and he's done nothing to shed them.

On a per minute basis hes not as good at literally everything other than turnovers (though he still turns it over for every assist he gets) and rebounds than he had been in previous years.

A change of role doesn't make your free throw percentage drop 13%.

[Walt Frazier]

Really, really agree with Jeremiah. And, if Wiggins ever does develop more actual skill, great. Give him a boost in those areas. But I think he's woefully short on actual basketball skills.

My 80 vote is simply because he does have athletic attributes and dunk ability that can be accounted for, but aside from that, he's unimpressive pretty much everywhere. Average at best in some categories, below average-to-poor in others.

[Hanamichi Sakuragi]

82

His 2FG% is actually better. TO per 36 is better, his defense has improved! DBPM can prove that. His FG% in 0-3 feet is up to 70.5 and the 3-10 is up to 43.6%.

And let me bring this very logical point.. How can a 22 years old player, loss 4 points worth of skills?

And how easy was it for you to not even put value to what he showed last season, when he did that for 82 games! A player who went for 23.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 45.2% FG, 35.6% 3FG, JUST LAST SEASON should loss 4 overall points now.

WOW. JUST WOW. That was his production, when he was the main backcourt guy for a GOOD coach. And now that his production is down, WHICH COINCIDES with the addition of an alpha player and a PG who needs to shoot, you think he is worth 4 points down?

JUST WOW.