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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Jul 11, 2015 19:52:09 GMT
Intro Note: I spend a lot of time (probably way too much time) thinking about D5 and about different aspects of the league, and I thought I would start to share some of my thoughts in a mini-series that I have titled the Brooklyn Bulletin. These short articles are just going to be one or two paragraphs each, but they are going to cover anything I think worth sharing, from my zero-sum theorem you'll see below, to the process of engineering the controversial Lance Stephenson signing. I would expect most of the initial bulletins to be about OSFA, but there may be some random ones included as well. Hope you enjoy.
The Brooklyn Bulletin #1 - Zero-Sum Basketball
Off-Season Free Agency (OSFA) is perhaps the most interesting time-period in our league. What makes OSFA so intriguing, in my opinion, is that it is your only opportunity as a General Manager (GM) to escape the zero-sum game. What I mean by this is as follows:
The D5 Zero-Sum Theorem
There are three ways to acquire value in this league; 1) Trading, 2) Rookie Draft, and 3) Free Agency. In a trade, you must give up value to get value in return. Trading is theoretically zero-sum, as the Trade Committee is in place to ensure that the value you give up is relatively similar to the value you receive. In a completely rational market, trading is logically zero-sum. The Rookie Draft is inherently zero-sum. Some may argue that a draft pick itself has more value than the player who is chosen with that pick (i.e. late first rounders), or even vice-versa. But, the rookie draft is inherently zero-sum, as you must relinquish your draft pick in order to acquire the player. Therefore, the two are inherently of the same value, making the rookie draft zero-sum. Free agency, however, is not zero-sum. Free agency is your one shot to acquire value without losing value. It is a truly unique time-period in the league that has historically seen very high activity rates, and very high levels of emotion, as teams are gaining and losing value in a non-zero-sum situation.
In simple words, OSFA is theoretically the only time where you can gain/lose value without getting a similar loss/gain of value in return.
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Post by Blake Bowman on Jul 11, 2015 19:57:41 GMT
Solid read. Can't wait for number two!
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2015 18:25:10 GMT
And this obvious point is why I signed mirotic.
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Spike Lee
Former Knicks GM
Sophomore
Posts: 366 
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Post by Spike Lee on Jul 12, 2015 21:03:16 GMT
And this obvious point is why I signed mirotic. it's not 'free value' when most other GMs don't think the contract matches a player's worth... |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2015 21:04:01 GMT
And this obvious point is why I signed mirotic. it's not 'free value' when most other GMs don't think the contract matches a player's worth... Yea because that's how you define value lol |
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Spike Lee
Former Knicks GM
Sophomore
Posts: 366
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Post by Spike Lee on Jul 12, 2015 21:05:33 GMT
it's not 'free value' when most other GMs don't think the contract matches a player's worth... Yea because that's how you define value lol yes, its exactly how you should define value. if no GM wants to take on a 18M/year contract for a bench player, you obtained zero value by signing this player in free agency. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2015 21:06:51 GMT
Yea because that's how you define value lol yes, its exactly how you should define value. if no GM wants to take on a 18M/year contract for a bench player, you obtained zero value by signing this player in free agency. Because having 17 million in cap space is worth...? |
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Spike Lee
Former Knicks GM
Sophomore
Posts: 366
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Post by Spike Lee on Jul 12, 2015 21:08:52 GMT
yes, its exactly how you should define value. if no GM wants to take on a 18M/year contract for a bench player, you obtained zero value by signing this player in free agency. Because having 17 million in cap space is worth...? im not saying you made the wrong move for your team. my point was that you didn't really add much value to your team by signing mirotic to a ridiculous contract. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2015 21:11:18 GMT
Because having 17 million in cap space is worth...? im not saying you made the wrong move for your team. my point was that you didn't really add much value to your team by signing mirotic to a ridiculous contract. If you dont think someone like Denver or miami would take mirotic for any amount of value then you're dumb. |
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Post by Alex English on Jul 12, 2015 22:05:30 GMT
If you dont think someone like Denver or miami would take mirotic for any amount of value then you're dumb. I'm flattered you sign good young players with the idea of trading them to me. Should I send you a PM? Let's get this deal done. |
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Jul 12, 2015 22:11:21 GMT
im not saying you made the wrong move for your team. my point was that you didn't really add much value to your team by signing mirotic to a ridiculous contract. If you dont think someone like Denver or miami would take mirotic for any amount of value then you're dumb. When he underperforms and you trade him for garbage to Miami or the Clippers this season to get rid of the contract then we can all review whether you actually gained any value. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2015 22:39:24 GMT
Even a 2nd would be gained value
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Spike Lee
Former Knicks GM
Sophomore
Posts: 366
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Post by Spike Lee on Jul 12, 2015 23:50:28 GMT
Even a 2nd would be gained value by the team that you would pay to mirotic to take over his shitty contract? |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2015 23:51:09 GMT
Even a 2nd would be gained value by the team that you would pay to mirotic to take over his shitty contract? Lol you guys just have no fucking clue. You do know the cap is going to be like 200 million in a few years right? |
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Post by Jay Z on Jul 13, 2015 5:40:10 GMT
This hurts my soul, I was one of the people that bid him up (highest offer he got in the first round of bidding), and he'll always have a home in ATL if he gets moved. Surprised so many people are down on him regardless of the contract he got.
Sent from my HTC One M9 using proboards
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Post by Hanamichi Sakuragi on Jul 13, 2015 6:40:05 GMT
I thought I am at at the Nikola Mirotic signing thread.
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Post by Jay Z on Jul 13, 2015 6:44:44 GMT
I thought I am at at the Nikola Mirotic signing thread. It'll spill over everywhere eventually. No thread is safe. Sent from my HTC One M9 using proboards |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2015 13:40:23 GMT
If you dont think someone like Denver or miami would take mirotic for any amount of value then you're dumb. When he underperforms and you trade him for garbage to Miami or the Clippers this season to get rid of the contract then we can all review whether you actually gained any value. This reminds me of when you tried to "save" me from signing whiteside. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2015 17:18:13 GMT
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Post by Charles Barkley on Jul 13, 2015 23:44:12 GMT
I thought I am at at the Nikola Mirotic signing thread. It'll spill over everywhere eventually. No thread is safe. Sent from my HTC One M9 using proboards Yo, Jay, we get it. You have a better phone than I do a laptop..quit rubbin it all in my face. Your avatar is sick. Now trade me Mario. |
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Post by Charles Barkley on Jul 13, 2015 23:45:15 GMT
If other GMs in the league do not realize what Josh said, you need to go to your local library and read an economics book.
And then read Bill James. It may be a different sport and this may be a 9 year old sim engine, but it still applies.
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Post by Jay Z on Jul 14, 2015 0:14:27 GMT
It'll spill over everywhere eventually. No thread is safe. Sent from my HTC One M9 using proboards Yo, Jay, we get it. You have a better phone than I do a laptop..quit rubbin it all in my face. Your avatar is sick. Now trade me Mario. Mario is the love of my life and we will be happy together, if i have to i will make this weirder then the adam/whiteside romance Sent from my phone so fuck you Charles using proboards |
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Post by Charles Barkley on Jul 14, 2015 0:20:11 GMT
Yo, Jay, we get it. You have a better phone than I do a laptop..quit rubbin it all in my face. Your avatar is sick. Now trade me Mario. Mario is the love of my life and we will be happy together, if i have to i will make this weirder then the adam/whiteside romance Sent from my phone so fuck you Charles using proboards I had sex with Mario in Croatia. We had a romance. It was serious. So looks like I've got 2 years on you since we were in love when he was 16 on Barca |
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Post by Hanamichi Sakuragi on Jul 14, 2015 0:39:30 GMT
Stop it the two of you!
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Post by James Kay on Jul 29, 2015 19:53:21 GMT
You know, this is how I used to view free agency. While I agree with its general principles, I now have to disagree with the idea of free agency being a ‘zero sum’ transaction. You do in fact, give something up in exchange for a free agent – cap space. Cap space is valuable. You can trade it for picks, or prospects. Cap space also represents the potential for future free agent signings. The reason I bring this up is because I see a long period of stagnation in the league coming with the new cap space increase. I’m not exactly sure how we would combat it, though. I just see about 1/3 of the league in full rebuilding mode. IRL the 76ers are really the only team employing this bottoming out method. Here, with no fans or owners to account for, we’re all doing it. The thing is, the Sixers have been able to leverage this asset (cap space) to their advantage to gain picks and other assets. But when 1/3 of the league is doing it and with the new upcoming TV deal, this asset is going to be depreciated significantly. I just feel like a lot of these bottoming out teams see their cap space as an advantage over the 1/3 of the league that is contending, when in reality, (as proved this off-season) cap space is not in demand. In fact, outside of the bottom 1/3 of the league, about 15 more teams will have cap space, most around ~20 million if the 88 cap prediction is correct. Only the Bucks, Clippers, Nuggets, and Warriors will be above the cap. Basically my point is, free agency isn’t a zero sum game. You give up an asset. That asset is cap space. IRL bottoming out teams (basically only the sixers) have used this cap space to an advantage to gain assets. They’ve drafted pretty well and it STILL hasn’t worked. We have 1/3 of the teams in this league trying to do the same thing. Except they don’t have this asset. In fact, they REALLY don’t have this asset because of the explosion of the cap with the new TV deal. They’re not gonna be able to bid FAs to come to them over established teams. So they’re essentially stuck unless they strike gold, which, as we know, is fairly rare. So I guess my final point is, FA isn’t supposed to be a zero-sum game, because you’re giving up cap space. But cap space is basically worthless for most teams, so for them it is zero-sum. But if you’re one of those middling teams that have a chance to pull a big fish in FA, cap space might be a pretty important asset.
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Post by Ian Noble on Jul 29, 2015 22:47:17 GMT
Wow that was a wall of text!
I agree though, and it's a pain in the ass for a rebuilding team like mine. My super-long-term-plan was based on having tons of cap space whilst also having enough developing talent to lure one or two big name free agents in the three or four year window before I had to re-sign my drafted rookies. Now that the cap is vastly increasing and 80% of the league has cap space I'm no longer anything special. It's a gigantic pain in the ass.
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Post by James Kay on Jul 29, 2015 23:28:36 GMT
Wow that was a wall of text! I agree though, and it's a pain in the ass for a rebuilding team like mine. My super-long-term-plan was based on having tons of cap space whilst also having enough developing talent to lure one or two big name free agents in the three or four year window before I had to re-sign my drafted rookies. Now that the cap is vastly increasing and 80% of the league has cap space I'm no longer anything special. It's a gigantic pain in the ass. Yeah sorry I kinda went on a rant haha. That's exactly my point, I feel bad for all these rebuilding teams because they have no assets that are moveable. They can't move their younger guys - that's the whole point of rebuilding! The only other asset they have is cap space and the ability to take on poor contracts. But why do other teams want to give up these poor contracts? To gain cap space to sign free agents - which the rebuilding teams will not be able to sign! It just has forced rebuilding teams to build strictly through the draft, and some of them don't even have their draft picks. I think a lot of it is the "blow-it-up" mentality that a lot of GMs have (not necessarily the current GMs of their teams) because they are not beholden to an owner or a fanbase. Why wait through years of mediocrity in a sim-league which you have no real investment in when you can just play the draft lotto? |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2015 2:56:13 GMT
Wow that was a wall of text! I agree though, and it's a pain in the ass for a rebuilding team like mine. My super-long-term-plan was based on having tons of cap space whilst also having enough developing talent to lure one or two big name free agents in the three or four year window before I had to re-sign my drafted rookies. Now that the cap is vastly increasing and 80% of the league has cap space I'm no longer anything special. It's a gigantic pain in the ass. Yeah sorry I kinda went on a rant haha. That's exactly my point, I feel bad for all these rebuilding teams because they have no assets that are moveable. They can't move their younger guys - that's the whole point of rebuilding! The only other asset they have is cap space and the ability to take on poor contracts. But why do other teams want to give up these poor contracts? To gain cap space to sign free agents - which the rebuilding teams will not be able to sign! It just has forced rebuilding teams to build strictly through the draft, and some of them don't even have their draft picks. I think a lot of it is the "blow-it-up" mentality that a lot of GMs have (not necessarily the current GMs of their teams) because they are not beholden to an owner or a fanbase. Why wait through years of mediocrity in a sim-league which you have no real investment in when you can just play the draft lotto? Blowing up and rebuilding the team is the only true show of skill. There is one thing to "plan" like 12 contracts a year so you can sign someone like Marc Gasol, than it is to collect draft picks, do hundreds of hours of personal scouting and hit on your draft picks. One takes like 3 hours and the ability to make a good pitch or already be lucky enough to have a good team, while the other shows actual basketball knowledge. Rebuilding is the only fun way to play. |
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Post by James Kay on Jul 30, 2015 4:00:26 GMT
Yeah sorry I kinda went on a rant haha. That's exactly my point, I feel bad for all these rebuilding teams because they have no assets that are moveable. They can't move their younger guys - that's the whole point of rebuilding! The only other asset they have is cap space and the ability to take on poor contracts. But why do other teams want to give up these poor contracts? To gain cap space to sign free agents - which the rebuilding teams will not be able to sign! It just has forced rebuilding teams to build strictly through the draft, and some of them don't even have their draft picks. I think a lot of it is the "blow-it-up" mentality that a lot of GMs have (not necessarily the current GMs of their teams) because they are not beholden to an owner or a fanbase. Why wait through years of mediocrity in a sim-league which you have no real investment in when you can just play the draft lotto? Blowing up and rebuilding the team is the only true show of skill. There is one thing to "plan" like 12 contracts a year so you can sign someone like Marc Gasol, than it is to collect draft picks, do hundreds of hours of personal scouting and hit on your draft picks. One takes like 3 hours and the ability to make a good pitch or already be lucky enough to have a good team, while the other shows actual basketball knowledge. Rebuilding is the only fun way to play. Sorry but I totally disagree. I can tell that is your perspective based on the way youve played so far, though. But hundreds of hours? Really? This is a sim league ... Plus that doesnt even make sense because the real-life team a player is drafted too has a ton of influence on their development. I guarantee you if T. Rob had been drafted by the Spurs he would not have been such a bust. All that scouting goes out the window if the real life Hornets pick your player. Plus this completely discounts trade negotiating, salary management, team composition, and many other aspects of the league I'm not going to bother to enumerate right now. Just disagree with the whole spirit of your post really. |
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Brooklyn Nets
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