Post by Brian Scalabrine on Jan 27, 2015 20:44:56 GMT
With the cap projected to jump to around $90 million in 2 years this crop of free agents has the unfortunate scenario of signing long term deals while not being able to cash in on the big money of the next TV deal. Still D5 teams are flush with cap space and there are some franchise changing free agents this summer. These are my predictions of where free agents will go based on what I think their value is. If I predict one player signs with a team then I adjust their cap projection and ability to sign other FA accordingly.
1. Lebron James - Sacramento Kings
While the market size isn't ideal and he has no hometown connection to this city like in cleveland, this is no doubt the team the King will choose if he wants to win championships. With Westbrook, Lillard and only $34 million in cap space committed for next season, Lebron can be the King of kings, sorry Jesus, while still having enough cap space to pursue perhaps 2 other max free agents over the next 2 years. This isn't a conventional choice but this team could potentially have Westbrook-Lillard-Lebron-Max free agent-Max free agent as a starting lineup. I can't see how LBJ can pass that up.
2. Demarcus Cousins - Oklahoma City Thunder
Not as exciting as my last prediction but Cousins would be a fool to leave Kevin Durant. They are the league's best 1-2 punch, the both occupy totally different areas of the floor and Durant is the rare superstar who doesn't demand tons of touches, allowing Demarcus to dominate in the post. The thunder haven't been shy in shaking things up and with Demarcus and Kevin will continue to contend for championships
3. John Wall - Portland Trailblazers
He has everything in Portland, a fellow superstar pick and roll big in Lamarcus Aldridge, two veteran winners from whom he can and has already learned how to be a winner, and a team that has already proven it can win a championship. With bird rights and proven success in the past the Blazers are all but locks to re-sign Wall. If they miss the playoffs as we saw with Blake Griffin it shouldn't have a impact on his return.
4. Paul George - Denver Nuggets
Broken Leg and all, PG is still a top 10 two way player when he is healthy and Denver has his bird rights, Kyrie Irving and James Harden and has shown a willingness to spend. I don't think PG can pass up a chance to form the next great Big 3 with his 2 fellow stars. Unfortunately for everyone else, this Denver team looks like a powerhouse that no one can stop.
5. Lamarcus Aldridge - Portland Trailblazers
LA is the Portland Trailblazers. He has stayed with the franchise since he was drafted and they have rewarded him with the championship they got last season. Like I said in the John Wall post this seems to be an easy decision as the team has stayed loyal to him, established success int eh past and looks primed to succeed in the future.
6. Carmelo Anthony - Houston Rockets
I have no information on Charles Barkley's feelings about Melo but if he wanted him this is the place for Melo to go. With Rudy Gay coming off the books this summer and a team that has so far looked only a step behind the best in the west, Melo propel the Rockets to new heights. Derrick Rose and Kevin Love would still be on the team next year and with young talent nearly everywhere this team could make a trade to secure another superstar center or shooting guard. Melo only has a few years left of superstardom and he needs a team that can pay him his money but also win now. With Melo, Rose, Love and maybe another superstar by trade this team could very well be one of the favorites for the championship next season.
7. Marc Gasol - Sacramento Kings
This should be one of the next 2 max free agents to join Lebron, Westbrook and Lillard over the next 2 years. The kings showed a commitment to Marc by trading for him and with LBJ, Lillard and Russ they have great perimeter players that need an anchor down low. With LBJ getting around $23 million, The kings should have enough space to give Marc the $17 million or so he deserves. Even though the Kings may have to trade some role players to clear out cap space I can't see Marc passing on the opportunity to join what would be one of the all time greatest teams.
8. Eric Bledsoe - Dallas Mavericks
Bledsoe is a little bit of an awkward fit on the Hornets given that Wiggins is a natural SG,Conley looks like he is there to be the long term solution at the point and Reggie Jackson is competition off the bench. He is a menace, sometimes compared to Westbrook-lite and really would do best on a team that could pay him the money, something he showed was a priority IRL while giving him no competition for minutes, which doesn't seem to suit him in Phoenix IRL. The Mavs give him that. With a likely to re-sign Rondo, see next, and a proven winner in Dirk who is the ultimate unselfish superstar, the Mavs have a team that just needs a maniac at the SG to contend. He would be the only SG once Evan turner leaves, has veteran leadership in Dirk and Pierce and after re-signing Rondo this team still has enough cap space to give him a contract in the $17 million range he wanted.
9. Rajon Rondo - Dallas Mavericks
Rondo is an interesting personality, often taking slights at things done by the organization and he always likes doing things his own way. He is also at his best when he has talent around him. He may not have prime Perce KG and Ray anymore but Dirk, the truth and gobbles of cap space to bring in another star should do just fine. The Mavs went all in trading for Rondo two years ago and that type of commitment to him should and will matter. He and Bledsoe will may yet another long term contender in the west, ugh.
10. Dwayne Wade - Miami Heat
There isn't a whole lot to say here. Wade is a pillar of the Miami community and when people think of the Heat they will always think of Wade. I don't see any situation that he signs elsewhere.
11. Rudy Gay - Milwaukee Bucks
Surprisingly still only 28, this once laughing stock of the analytics crowd has turned himself into a really efficient scorer who, as seen in Sacramento IRL, just needs a presence down low to keep him at his best. With Anthony Davis and Andre Drummond this bucks team has the best bigs in D5. An efficent wing slasher in Rudy Gay, a perfect defensive, low usage PG in Jrue Holiday, a stretch the court shooter in Bradley Beal with the two monsters down low will leave this team the clear cut favorites in the East but one of the 3 best in all D5.
12. DeAndre Jordan - L.A. Clippers
I may have the Clippers losing Melo, but with Tony Parker and Blake Griffin, this team is still formidable. Deandre forms one of the deadliest front court combos with his lob partner Blake and the clippers can offer him the most money as they have his bird rights and have shown a commitment to him that shouldn't go unnoticed, as he has no competition for minutes. TP, Blake and Deandre should still form a strong playoff team in the west.
13. Zach Randolph - Brooklyn Nets
With Nikola Vucevic looking likely to take his starting spot and Andrew Bogut there for the long haul, Zbo is going to have to look elsewhere is he wants major playing time. The Brooklyn Nets are that team. He has virtually not competition for minuts in the front court and with talent at PG and SG in MCW and Lance this team has the upside to make major noise in the weak Eastern conference. A place where Zbo gets playing time, a shot at the playoffs almost every year and a chance to completely turn around a team, and become a legend should be too good to pass up.
14. Greg Monroe - Utah Jazz
Having suffered on a middling Detroit team for his whole career, Greg will be looking toward a team that has upside and playing time. With Jabari and Jeff Teague the sky is the limit for this Utah team. Thaddeus young provides a stretch four for Greg who can slide down to center and have the low post all to himself. Greg will be going to a real up and comer in the West and with other players around his age in Jabari, Teague and even Thaddeus Young he and this team could grow into something special.
15. Gordon Hayward - New Orleans Pelicans
This is defiantly homerism mixed in with some wishful thinking, but the Pelicans have shown Gordon they are committed to him and committed to making the team around him better. With Kenneth Faried, Brandon Knight and Darren Collison in tow this tam has young pieces to build around him that don't overlap with his natural spot at SF. We say last season IRL that Gordon needs someone to create for him and with Knight and Collison hopefully we have shown him we have what it takes for him to succeed.
16. Tyson Chandler - Brooklyn Nets
After signing Zbo this team needs a good defensive center to anchor the defense and while Tyson didn't have the best run in NY the first time, he can be part of a playoff contending team. With offensive creators around him, a big man to take on post up duties and the bright lights of the city that lured him to NY in free agency IRL last time around, Tyson is a likely bet to return the Nets to relevance.
17. Draymond Green - Charlotte Hornets
18. Derrick Favors - Minnesota Timberwolves
19. Wes Matthews - Cleveland Cavaliers
20. Chandler Parsons - Cleveland Cavaliers
Edit: Took ZBO off pacers since they still have west as the trade was cancelled and switched Monroe to Jazz and Zbo to Nets.
1. Lebron James - Sacramento Kings
While the market size isn't ideal and he has no hometown connection to this city like in cleveland, this is no doubt the team the King will choose if he wants to win championships. With Westbrook, Lillard and only $34 million in cap space committed for next season, Lebron can be the King of kings, sorry Jesus, while still having enough cap space to pursue perhaps 2 other max free agents over the next 2 years. This isn't a conventional choice but this team could potentially have Westbrook-Lillard-Lebron-Max free agent-Max free agent as a starting lineup. I can't see how LBJ can pass that up.
2. Demarcus Cousins - Oklahoma City Thunder
Not as exciting as my last prediction but Cousins would be a fool to leave Kevin Durant. They are the league's best 1-2 punch, the both occupy totally different areas of the floor and Durant is the rare superstar who doesn't demand tons of touches, allowing Demarcus to dominate in the post. The thunder haven't been shy in shaking things up and with Demarcus and Kevin will continue to contend for championships
3. John Wall - Portland Trailblazers
He has everything in Portland, a fellow superstar pick and roll big in Lamarcus Aldridge, two veteran winners from whom he can and has already learned how to be a winner, and a team that has already proven it can win a championship. With bird rights and proven success in the past the Blazers are all but locks to re-sign Wall. If they miss the playoffs as we saw with Blake Griffin it shouldn't have a impact on his return.
4. Paul George - Denver Nuggets
Broken Leg and all, PG is still a top 10 two way player when he is healthy and Denver has his bird rights, Kyrie Irving and James Harden and has shown a willingness to spend. I don't think PG can pass up a chance to form the next great Big 3 with his 2 fellow stars. Unfortunately for everyone else, this Denver team looks like a powerhouse that no one can stop.
5. Lamarcus Aldridge - Portland Trailblazers
LA is the Portland Trailblazers. He has stayed with the franchise since he was drafted and they have rewarded him with the championship they got last season. Like I said in the John Wall post this seems to be an easy decision as the team has stayed loyal to him, established success int eh past and looks primed to succeed in the future.
6. Carmelo Anthony - Houston Rockets
I have no information on Charles Barkley's feelings about Melo but if he wanted him this is the place for Melo to go. With Rudy Gay coming off the books this summer and a team that has so far looked only a step behind the best in the west, Melo propel the Rockets to new heights. Derrick Rose and Kevin Love would still be on the team next year and with young talent nearly everywhere this team could make a trade to secure another superstar center or shooting guard. Melo only has a few years left of superstardom and he needs a team that can pay him his money but also win now. With Melo, Rose, Love and maybe another superstar by trade this team could very well be one of the favorites for the championship next season.
7. Marc Gasol - Sacramento Kings
This should be one of the next 2 max free agents to join Lebron, Westbrook and Lillard over the next 2 years. The kings showed a commitment to Marc by trading for him and with LBJ, Lillard and Russ they have great perimeter players that need an anchor down low. With LBJ getting around $23 million, The kings should have enough space to give Marc the $17 million or so he deserves. Even though the Kings may have to trade some role players to clear out cap space I can't see Marc passing on the opportunity to join what would be one of the all time greatest teams.
8. Eric Bledsoe - Dallas Mavericks
Bledsoe is a little bit of an awkward fit on the Hornets given that Wiggins is a natural SG,Conley looks like he is there to be the long term solution at the point and Reggie Jackson is competition off the bench. He is a menace, sometimes compared to Westbrook-lite and really would do best on a team that could pay him the money, something he showed was a priority IRL while giving him no competition for minutes, which doesn't seem to suit him in Phoenix IRL. The Mavs give him that. With a likely to re-sign Rondo, see next, and a proven winner in Dirk who is the ultimate unselfish superstar, the Mavs have a team that just needs a maniac at the SG to contend. He would be the only SG once Evan turner leaves, has veteran leadership in Dirk and Pierce and after re-signing Rondo this team still has enough cap space to give him a contract in the $17 million range he wanted.
9. Rajon Rondo - Dallas Mavericks
Rondo is an interesting personality, often taking slights at things done by the organization and he always likes doing things his own way. He is also at his best when he has talent around him. He may not have prime Perce KG and Ray anymore but Dirk, the truth and gobbles of cap space to bring in another star should do just fine. The Mavs went all in trading for Rondo two years ago and that type of commitment to him should and will matter. He and Bledsoe will may yet another long term contender in the west, ugh.
10. Dwayne Wade - Miami Heat
There isn't a whole lot to say here. Wade is a pillar of the Miami community and when people think of the Heat they will always think of Wade. I don't see any situation that he signs elsewhere.
11. Rudy Gay - Milwaukee Bucks
Surprisingly still only 28, this once laughing stock of the analytics crowd has turned himself into a really efficient scorer who, as seen in Sacramento IRL, just needs a presence down low to keep him at his best. With Anthony Davis and Andre Drummond this bucks team has the best bigs in D5. An efficent wing slasher in Rudy Gay, a perfect defensive, low usage PG in Jrue Holiday, a stretch the court shooter in Bradley Beal with the two monsters down low will leave this team the clear cut favorites in the East but one of the 3 best in all D5.
12. DeAndre Jordan - L.A. Clippers
I may have the Clippers losing Melo, but with Tony Parker and Blake Griffin, this team is still formidable. Deandre forms one of the deadliest front court combos with his lob partner Blake and the clippers can offer him the most money as they have his bird rights and have shown a commitment to him that shouldn't go unnoticed, as he has no competition for minutes. TP, Blake and Deandre should still form a strong playoff team in the west.
13. Zach Randolph - Brooklyn Nets
With Nikola Vucevic looking likely to take his starting spot and Andrew Bogut there for the long haul, Zbo is going to have to look elsewhere is he wants major playing time. The Brooklyn Nets are that team. He has virtually not competition for minuts in the front court and with talent at PG and SG in MCW and Lance this team has the upside to make major noise in the weak Eastern conference. A place where Zbo gets playing time, a shot at the playoffs almost every year and a chance to completely turn around a team, and become a legend should be too good to pass up.
14. Greg Monroe - Utah Jazz
Having suffered on a middling Detroit team for his whole career, Greg will be looking toward a team that has upside and playing time. With Jabari and Jeff Teague the sky is the limit for this Utah team. Thaddeus young provides a stretch four for Greg who can slide down to center and have the low post all to himself. Greg will be going to a real up and comer in the West and with other players around his age in Jabari, Teague and even Thaddeus Young he and this team could grow into something special.
15. Gordon Hayward - New Orleans Pelicans
This is defiantly homerism mixed in with some wishful thinking, but the Pelicans have shown Gordon they are committed to him and committed to making the team around him better. With Kenneth Faried, Brandon Knight and Darren Collison in tow this tam has young pieces to build around him that don't overlap with his natural spot at SF. We say last season IRL that Gordon needs someone to create for him and with Knight and Collison hopefully we have shown him we have what it takes for him to succeed.
16. Tyson Chandler - Brooklyn Nets
After signing Zbo this team needs a good defensive center to anchor the defense and while Tyson didn't have the best run in NY the first time, he can be part of a playoff contending team. With offensive creators around him, a big man to take on post up duties and the bright lights of the city that lured him to NY in free agency IRL last time around, Tyson is a likely bet to return the Nets to relevance.
17. Draymond Green - Charlotte Hornets
18. Derrick Favors - Minnesota Timberwolves
19. Wes Matthews - Cleveland Cavaliers
20. Chandler Parsons - Cleveland Cavaliers
Edit: Took ZBO off pacers since they still have west as the trade was cancelled and switched Monroe to Jazz and Zbo to Nets.