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Post by Ian Noble on Jun 8, 2017 22:51:58 GMT
looks like I'll be up all night so here's the thread
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Post by Ian Noble on Jun 8, 2017 23:05:29 GMT
Background info:
Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party are the UK's Bernie Sanders.
Theresa May's Conservative Party are doing their best to balance in between Trump extremism and traditional Establishment far-right policies.
Theresa May called the election merely to extend her Conservative Party lead but it's look more and more like she will lose seats this election.
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Post by Alex English on Jun 8, 2017 23:16:02 GMT
It 6-1 for Labour on the BBC stream I'm watching. What's the deal with early results going for Labour?
The exit polls vs results though still imply a large minority or small majority government for the Conservatives though.
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Post by Ian Noble on Jun 8, 2017 23:28:23 GMT
It 6-1 for Labour on the BBC stream I'm watching. What's the deal with early results going for Labour? The exit polls vs results though still imply a large minority or small majority government for the Conservatives though. They are all safe-seats for Labour ever since Margaret Thatcher pulled the rug from under the North East and allowed press gangs and police to brutalise the striking populace. Also the one seat for the Cons was expected as well. Two safe seats for the Cons as I type this, It's the swing-seats that matter the most.
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Post by Ian Noble on Jun 8, 2017 23:31:58 GMT
The "Exit Poll" is usually a good indicator, and that was very positive for Labour, but the reality so far is not as positive
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Post by Alex English on Jun 8, 2017 23:36:39 GMT
They are all safe-seats for Labour ever since Margaret Thatcher pulled the rug from under the North East and allowed press gangs and police to brutalise the striking populace. Also the one seat for the Cons was expected as well. Two safe seats for the Cons as I type this, It's the swing-seats that matter the most. Yea, it's just that all things being random, you'd expect the early sample to favour the Conservatives given that the total results are expected to favour them. 8 is hardly a sample size at all though. I'm wondering because in Canada we have huge geographical differences with multiple time zones where we know the left wing parties will get out to an early lead before the Alberta and other prairie results hit and we get a huge surge for the conservatives. The UK is all on one time zone though. Also do they only report final results in the UK? In Canada we get partial results as the counting is ongoing so we see the number of seats held rise and fall among the parties. It makes it more exciting than just final results being given out.
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Post by Ian Noble on Jun 8, 2017 23:45:21 GMT
They are all safe-seats for Labour ever since Margaret Thatcher pulled the rug from under the North East and allowed press gangs and police to brutalise the striking populace. Also the one seat for the Cons was expected as well. Two safe seats for the Cons as I type this, It's the swing-seats that matter the most. Yea, it's just that all things being random, you'd expect the early sample to favour the Conservatives given that the total results are expected to favour them. 8 is hardly a sample size at all though. I'm wondering because in Canada we have huge geographical differences with multiple time zones where we know the left wing parties will get out to an early lead before the Alberta and other prairie results hit and we get a huge surge for the conservatives. The UK is all on one time zone though. Also do they only report final results in the UK? In Canada we get partial results as the counting is ongoing so we see the number of seats held rise and fall among the parties. It makes it more exciting than just final results being given out. Yeah if you're following the BBC feed that's got an ongoing tally. Currently 6/4 to Lab. Throughout the night it will swing back towards the Cons. It's 99% certain they will still be the most popular party, despite wanting to push people in wheelchairs down flights of stairs. What lefties like us are hoping for is a "hung parliament" where the Cons fall short of a majority of 323/326 seats (depending upon whether eternally (and rightly) pissed off Northern Irish representatives Sinn Fein will take their seats for the first time), that would be a massive loss for the Cons and Labour and the "Scottish National Party" might make a coalition and take power.
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Post by Alex English on Jun 8, 2017 23:56:35 GMT
The "Exit Poll" is usually a good indicator, and that was very positive for Labour, but the reality so far is not as positive Hey these BBC people keep going on about Labour's confidence in swing seats they might win and things like that. The vote swing in Con wins has also swung a lot to Labour, so maybe it's not off of the exit pole in favour of the Conservatives after all.
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Post by Ian Noble on Jun 9, 2017 0:05:08 GMT
The "Exit Poll" is usually a good indicator, and that was very positive for Labour, but the reality so far is not as positive Hey these BBC people keep going on about Labour's confidence in swing seats they might win and things like that. The vote swing in Con wins has also swung a lot to Labour, so maybe it's not off of the exit pole in favour of the Conservatives after all. So far this is the best guy for breaking it all down and it seems more positive than I realized: twitter.com/LFDodds
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Post by Ian Noble on Jun 9, 2017 0:05:34 GMT
Love this;
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Post by Ian Noble on Jun 9, 2017 0:16:11 GMT
If Jeremy Corbyn wins it will mean the end of a USA/UK "special relationship" of sorts, at least until the extreme-far-right-wingers in America fuck off, so this has interesting international implications.
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Post by Ian Noble on Jun 9, 2017 0:23:20 GMT
It's difficult to get excited but my beloved lefties, Labour, are absolutely dominating early on (compared to expectations)
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Post by Alex English on Jun 9, 2017 0:47:04 GMT
Well it's currently 27 Lab, 14 Con, etc. and things look... interesting. There are some big swings for Labour coming in.
Also, the Welsh language is complete gibberish. It's beyond incomprehensible compared to other foreign languages. Which is funny to say I guess, given that my family heritage is Welsh.
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Post by Ian Noble on Jun 9, 2017 0:48:46 GMT
Well it's currently 27 Lab, 14 Con, etc. and things look... interesting. There are some big swings for Labour coming in. Also, the Welsh language is complete gibberish. It's beyond incomprehensible compared to other foreign languages. Which is funny to say I guess, given that my family heritage is Welsh. So far it's vastly, vastly better than was expected for Labour and the Left. Elvish tengwar from LOTRings was based on Welsh You try driving through it! All the signs are in Welsh! Where are your family from in Wales do you know?
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Post by Alex English on Jun 9, 2017 0:57:18 GMT
So far it's vastly, vastly better than was expected for Labour and the Left. Elvish tengwar from LOTRings was based on Welsh You try driving through it! All the signs are in Welsh! Where are your family from in Wales do you know? I have driven through it! Well my parents have. I went there as a kid visiting relatives and seeing the country. I want to go back to England/Wales on my own in the future. My grandpa was from Cwmfelinfach, a little north of Cardiff/Newport.
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Post by Ian Noble on Jun 9, 2017 1:05:20 GMT
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Post by Alex English on Jun 9, 2017 1:09:13 GMT
Yea the Conservative come back hasn't happened yet. It's 52 Lab, Con 29, etc. right now with a couple direct flips from Con to Lab.
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Post by Ian Noble on Jun 9, 2017 4:10:16 GMT
2 hours sleep and I'm back in the game
So far it's looking very rosy
Scotland, of all places, letting us down
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Post by Alex English on Jun 9, 2017 4:34:16 GMT
In my highly informed and expert opinion, I'd say it looks like a Conservative + DUP government.
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Post by Ian Noble on Jun 9, 2017 5:01:28 GMT
In my highly informed and expert opinion, I'd say it looks like a Conservative + DUP government. Possibly The fact that the Cons have been backed into this corner is amazing
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Post by Ian Noble on Jun 9, 2017 14:26:22 GMT
The fact is: intelligent people rarely vote right wing. To maintain power Theresa May, like Donald Trump, has today become a parody of How To Be The Worst Politician Imaginable. After ridiculously accusing Jeremy Corbyn of being a terrorist sympathiser (because he was involved in trying to broker peace between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah) she has teamed up with the "DUP" party, who are a handful of politicans who used to paint murals like these during the Northern Ireland Troubles: The DUP enjoy focusing on important issues like: Ensuring raped women should not get abortions.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Jun 9, 2017 15:58:40 GMT
The fact is: intelligent people rarely vote right wing. To maintain power Theresa May, like Donald Trump, has today become a parody of How To Be The Worst Politician Imaginable. After ridiculously accusing Jeremy Corbyn of being a terrorist sympathiser (because he was involved in trying to broker peace between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah) she has teamed up with the "DUP" party, who are a handful of politicans who used to paint murals like these during the Northern Ireland Troubles: The DUP enjoy focusing on important issues like: Ensuring raped women should not get abortions. ------------------------------------------------------- Intelligent people vote conservative all the time, to say there are no intelligent people on the conservative side means that the left is basically losing to retards left and right in which case we should all give up because if our asses get handed to us time and time again by a bunch of morons then its not them that the problem. I find it entirely interesting that the conservatives make up much of your rural areas like here in the US and are brought to arms by threats of terrorism when in all likelyhood the terrorism ISN'T going to affect them. It's like here "We need to secure our borders because of terrorism" I reply "You live in Orwell Ohio with a population of 1600 people, on what planet does terror even become a concern of yours?". I find it wildly interesting that the Republican party is able to convince these people that terrorism is a valid threat to them. Terror and Guns, I at least understand the guns thing. I think if Democrats dropped gun control completely for a few cycles they'd win 70% of congress relatively easily. My brother has the National Rifle Association calling all the time telling him about how the Democrats are going to steal his guns and the cover of each magazine comes with a warning about liberals. He just wanted to have a magazine and now he's regretting it because he doesn't give a shit about politics.
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Post by Ian Noble on Jun 10, 2017 8:58:36 GMT
The fact is: intelligent people rarely vote right wing. To maintain power Theresa May, like Donald Trump, has today become a parody of How To Be The Worst Politician Imaginable. After ridiculously accusing Jeremy Corbyn of being a terrorist sympathiser (because he was involved in trying to broker peace between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah) she has teamed up with the "DUP" party, who are a handful of politicans who used to paint murals like these during the Northern Ireland Troubles: The DUP enjoy focusing on important issues like: Ensuring raped women should not get abortions. ------------------------------------------------------- Intelligent people vote conservative all the time, to say there are no intelligent people on the conservative side means that the left is basically losing to retards left and right in which case we should all give up because if our asses get handed to us time and time again by a bunch of morons then its not them that the problem. I said "ring wing" not "conservative". Multiple academic studies prove that people are more likely to have lower cognitive ability if they support right wing authoritarian government. I've looked and there's not a single study that proves otherwise and I find it also resonates with my personal experience: if you back a right winger into a corner with facts and historical perspectives they simply switch-off mentally, refuse to engage and/or become violent/angry. I'm a big fan of the quote "stupid people are sure of themselves", so I'm hesitant to be sure of something myself, but I'm someone who spends a significant amount of my time objectively studying and trying to decide what's best for society before I adopt a point of view. I don't simply want what is best for myself personally because I know I'll be fine either way, I'm not some coward who's afraid of a different social system because I personally might be left out in the cold - because I know I will not be left out in the cold. Therefore I support a socio-economic model more aligned with the Nordic Model because it not only produces the most advanced, efficient and powerful economies it also provides the best social/humanitarian indicators in world history. On the other hand multiple studies like the one I linked to above show that "low-effort thinking" promotes right-wing beliefs. 1) The Conservatives (who aren't conservative, it's just their party name) here in the UK, in the past year, have been under several investigations for counts of "major fraud", their response has been to begin the dissolution of the independent office for investigations into major fraud and to instead allow their own political party to run this job. It seems fairly obvious to me that's because the Conservatives are going to now commit major fraud. 2) The Conservatives in the past year have also changed the law so that, instead of an independent Board of Governors at the BBC, their own people staff the Board of Governors. Complaints about BBC bias have never been higher. It seems fairly obvious to me that's because the Conservatives now control the BBC. What I'm trying to get across to you is that not only do most right-wingers not even know about these points, because they do not put the effort into finding out, but they also do not care about those two points. In my opinion they then forfeit their right to be taken seriously. I understand the need to be accommodating to other points of view but after over a decade of almost daily experience of this, and watching objectively how every institution in my democracy and others is being corrupted by the greed of the 1%, watching easily-persuaded low-effort thinkers parroting what they're told to believe by agenda-ridden billionaire media owners. Frankly I'm tired of being polite about it.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Jun 11, 2017 6:17:11 GMT
------------------------------------------------------- Intelligent people vote conservative all the time, to say there are no intelligent people on the conservative side means that the left is basically losing to retards left and right in which case we should all give up because if our asses get handed to us time and time again by a bunch of morons then its not them that the problem. I said "ring wing" not "conservative". Multiple academic studies prove that people are more likely to have lower cognitive ability if they support right wing authoritarian government. I've looked and there's not a single study that proves otherwise and I find it also resonates with my personal experience: if you back a right winger into a corner with facts and historical perspectives they simply switch-off mentally, refuse to engage and/or become violent/angry. I'm a big fan of the quote "stupid people are sure of themselves", so I'm hesitant to be sure of something myself, but I'm someone who spends a significant amount of my time objectively studying and trying to decide what's best for society before I adopt a point of view. I don't simply want what is best for myself personally because I know I'll be fine either way, I'm not some coward who's afraid of a different social system because I personally might be left out in the cold - because I know I will not be left out in the cold. Therefore I support a socio-economic model more aligned with the Nordic Model because it not only produces the most advanced, efficient and powerful economies it also provides the best social/humanitarian indicators in world history. On the other hand multiple studies like the one I linked to above show that "low-effort thinking" promotes right-wing beliefs. 1) The Conservatives (who aren't conservative, it's just their party name) here in the UK, in the past year, have been under several investigations for counts of "major fraud", their response has been to begin the dissolution of the independent office for investigations into major fraud and to instead allow their own political party to run this job. It seems fairly obvious to me that's because the Conservatives are going to now commit major fraud. 2) The Conservatives in the past year have also changed the law so that, instead of an independent Board of Governors at the BBC, their own people staff the Board of Governors. Complaints about BBC bias have never been higher. It seems fairly obvious to me that's because the Conservatives now control the BBC. What I'm trying to get across to you is that not only do most right-wingers not even know about these points, because they do not put the effort into finding out, but they also do not care about those two points. In my opinion they then forfeit their right to be taken seriously. I understand the need to be accommodating to other points of view but after over a decade of almost daily experience of this, and watching objectively how every institution in my democracy and others is being corrupted by the greed of the 1%, watching easily-persuaded low-effort thinkers parroting what they're told to believe by agenda-ridden billionaire media owners. Frankly I'm tired of being polite about it. ------- Interesting, seriously.
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Post by Ian Noble on Jun 16, 2017 17:43:31 GMT
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