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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Apr 12, 2017 14:01:16 GMT
Current Rating: 79 Suggested Rating: 82
Post all-star break averages: 24.6 ppg, 4.1 apg, 4.2 rpg, 1.05 spg
I think he has proven himself to at least be as good as an 82. His stats suggest a much higher rating (85+), but I'll be the first to admit that every young player on the Suns got an unfair boost in the second half of the season due to playing time and usage rates. Anyway, just asking for a modest increase to an 82 for now, and then we can re-assess once we get some more data next season.
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Deleted
Posts: 0
Apr 24, 2024 1:31:22 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2017 17:00:22 GMT
82
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Post by James Kay on Apr 12, 2017 17:20:28 GMT
Honest question – what makes Devin that different than a Lou Will or Eric Gordon or Nick Young besides potential? Seems like his main skill is scoring. He averages .3 more assists than turnovers.
That being said, he’s been forced to shoulder a large load and seems pretty capable. I’ll go 80-81.
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Post by Walt Frazier on Apr 12, 2017 17:31:28 GMT
What were his pre all star break averages?
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Apr 12, 2017 17:35:34 GMT
Honest question – what makes Devin that different than a Lou Will or Eric Gordon or Nick Young besides potential? Seems like his main skill is scoring. He averages .3 more assists than turnovers. That being said, he’s been forced to shoulder a large load and seems pretty capable. I’ll go 80-81. What makes any player better than any other player? What makes Serge Ibaka better than Domantas Sabonis? What makes Goran Dragic better than Austin Rivers? What makes Khris Middleton better than KJ McDaniels?
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Apr 12, 2017 17:36:40 GMT
What were his pre all star break averages? I think 80 or 81 is fine for now 21.1 ppg, 3.2 apg, 2.8 rpg, 0.9 spg.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Apr 12, 2017 18:35:30 GMT
Honest question – what makes Devin that different than a Lou Will or Eric Gordon or Nick Young besides potential? Seems like his main skill is scoring. He averages .3 more assists than turnovers. That being said, he’s been forced to shoulder a large load and seems pretty capable. I’ll go 80-81. What makes any player better than any other player? What makes Serge Ibaka better than Domantas Sabonis? What makes Goran Dragic better than Austin Rivers? What makes Khris Middleton better than KJ McDaniels? Serge/Sabonis: Serge has elite athleticism and weak side defense. The record OKC would have if he was still in town are the primary differences. Goran/Austin: Dragic is actually good and Rivers is barely NBA caliber. Khris/KJ: One was the difference maker pushing his team over the lotto hump and into the playoffs, KJ I'm not even sure is still on a team.
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Apr 12, 2017 19:07:56 GMT
What makes any player better than any other player? What makes Serge Ibaka better than Domantas Sabonis? What makes Goran Dragic better than Austin Rivers? What makes Khris Middleton better than KJ McDaniels? Serge/Sabonis: Serge has elite athleticism and weak side defense. The record OKC would have if he was still in town are the primary differences. Goran/Austin: Dragic is actually good and Rivers is barely NBA caliber. Khris/KJ: One was the difference maker pushing his team over the lotto hump and into the playoffs, KJ I'm not even sure is still on a team. Ibaka/Sabonis:Might have bought it if you had mentioned offense. Sabonis is actually a pretty elite defender, both on-ball and off-ball. He ranks higher than Serge is almost every statistical defensive category except blocks (this is the same fallacy that a lot of people who don't understand basketball look to when trying to assess big man defense. Your mistake is the same reason non-basketball people think guys like Andre Drummond are good on defense when in reality he is absolute trash). www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM/position/6Goran/Austin:Might be true, but you can't just say one player is better, that is the entire point of this discussion. I could have responded to James that Booker is actually good and Nick Young is barely NBA caliber (also true). Khris/KJ:Decent argument but unfortunately we do not really rank players based on win shares in this league (see: all players on real-life Timberwolves).
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Post by Walt Frazier on Apr 12, 2017 19:08:35 GMT
What were his pre all star break averages? I think 80 or 81 is fine for now 21.1 ppg, 3.2 apg, 2.8 rpg, 0.9 spg. Just a question broheim. Thanks.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Apr 12, 2017 19:56:52 GMT
Outside of being a smart ass I decided to dig a little deeper. I looked into the players that James mentioned, as well as Evan Fournier and Andrew Wiggins two SGs at 79-80 who are on bad teams. In all fairness I think it's fair to comp them as they are in similar situations.
So in total we have Devin Booker, Evan Fournier, Eric Gordon, Andrew Wiggins, Lou Williams and Nick Young.
In terms of FG% he's 2nd to last in this group, Wiggins is first. Eric Gordon takes almost 9 shots a game from behind the arc @ 37% so that accounts for it, BUT he's been in the very low 40s since arriving in NOP and it hasn't changed in Houston.
3pt % he fairs a little better coming in at 4th out of 6 at a pedestrian 36% shooting, Nick Young leads the pack at 40% which surprised me because he's the lowest rated of the bunch (but he was at 33% last season so we know why that is). Fournier is last after shooting over 37% his first few years and is at 35.4%.
Of the two, Wiggins and Devin Booker at the only ones taking more than 14 shots a game.
eFG% Devin Booker is in last place, Wiggins is 5th just ahead of him. Nick Young is quite frankly wasting the best year of his life on the Lakers and is averaging 56% efg. Everyone besides Wiggins and Booker is over 50%.
Booker isn't especially adept at drawing contact. Despite having the ball almost as much as Wiggins, he draws the same amount of FTs as Lou Williams.
FT% He's 4th at 83.2% which is nothing crazy special but the best player we're comping is at 87.9% Wiggins is last in this category.
Devin Booker is 2nd in rebounding right after Wiggins 3.2 to 4.0 This kind of surprised me because Wiggins is much more athletic than Booker but isn't really blowing him out of the water considering his size and athletic advantages I don't know if it's an effort or positioning issue, perhaps a bball IQ issue. BUT its not out of the average for a SG so lets not harp on it.
I'm not trying to dump on Wiggins, but he's an 80 ovr. He's the highest rated player in this comp so I'm point out the differences. With that said:
In terms of assists Booker leads at 3.4 but it really doesn't tell the whole story. His assist to turnover ratio isn't that great. He's at 1.09 assists to 1.00 turnover. good for 2nd worst. Just better than Wiggins at 1.0 to 1.0. Wiggins and Booker simply aren't great parts of a moving offense. Which was my biggest gripe about Wiggins in general, Booker shares that gripe. The best of the group is Eric Gordon at 1.56 to 1. Either way both Wiggins and Booker were handily beat by Evan, Lou and Eric.
As for steals. Wiggins is tied with Evan Fournier and Lou Williams at one, both who play at least 5 minutes less than him. Kind of extremely underwhelming. Booker is at .9. So non of them except Lou Williams is an exceptional ball hawk.
As for blocks Booker is at .3. Tied with Lou Williams at .3 tied with Wiggins and Eric Gordon is winning the category at .5 bpg.
Lou averages 12.7 minutes less than Wiggins. When you comp them with the per36 in order to normalize the comparison (the real reason it exists lol) Lou Williams should be rated at an 81 or 82 to be honest. He wipes the floor with Wiggins in several very important categories. The ones he's losing its not by that much.
Of the advanced stats only one player has a BPM that isn't negative, that's Williams. None of them have a DBPM in the positives. Devin Booker and Wiggins OBPM as 5th and 6th of the group. Underwhelming to say the least.
Only two players post a negative VORP thats Booker and Wiggins. And for DRtg Wiggins is 4th and Booker is tied for 5&6th. But they are only separated by 1. Also Booker fouls too much.
Conclusions: You can put up gaudy scoring number and have people think that you're really good while still being completely useless when it comes to winning basketball games. Wiggins WAS/IS overrated to start him out in D5 despite how athletic everyone thinks he is. He's not that athletic with the ball IMO. Booker is a bit overrated at 79. They are both young. For being as young as they are and accomplishing what they've done that is great. But they are pretty average. Several of the guys we're comparing them to have been in the league for 5 years or more. Be patient.
Nick Young bouncing back after that REALLY crappy year he had gives me a lot of faith in Luke Walton in terms of cultivating personalities and perhaps even talent. He needs a raise thread back up to 78 or so.
Lou Williams is the minute for minute king of 6th manning.
Fournier was supposed to take a leap and I'm secretly glad he decided to not sign with me.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Apr 12, 2017 19:57:39 GMT
21.1 ppg, 3.2 apg, 2.8 rpg, 0.9 spg. Just a question broheim. Thanks. I'll go a firm 81 Slow down a sec. Read my post then reevaluate.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Apr 12, 2017 20:07:24 GMT
Serge/Sabonis: Serge has elite athleticism and weak side defense. The record OKC would have if he was still in town are the primary differences. Goran/Austin: Dragic is actually good and Rivers is barely NBA caliber. Khris/KJ: One was the difference maker pushing his team over the lotto hump and into the playoffs, KJ I'm not even sure is still on a team. Ibaka/Sabonis:Might have bought it if you had mentioned offense. Sabonis is actually a pretty elite defender, both on-ball and off-ball. He ranks higher than Serge is almost every statistical defensive category except blocks (this is the same fallacy that a lot of people who don't understand basketball look to when trying to assess big man defense. Your mistake is the same reason non-basketball people think guys like Andre Drummond are good on defense when in reality he is absolute trash). www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM/position/6Simply not true. Sabonis isn't even as good on defense as Kanter. If he was he'd be playing starting minutes. Ibaka's defensive stats are suppressed this season due to switching teams a bunch. He's not an otherworldly defender but he's so far and away better than Sabonis as a complete player its almost a joke you mentioned this as a comp. DPM Goran/Austin:Might be true, but you can't just say one player is better, that is the entire point of this discussion. I could have responded to James that Booker is actually good and Nick Young is barely NBA caliber (also true). It's 100% true. Goran wipes his ass with Austin Rivers every time they play because Austin Rivers is just not that good. It's why the Clips will get boosted in the 1st round again. This was the dumbest of your comps. Khris/KJ:Decent argument but unfortunately we do not really rank players based on win shares in this league (see: all players on real-life Timberwolves). But we do rank them based on stats and KJ McDaniels scores 4 ppg. And I'm comping them this season where Khris is coming off a major injury. Even if we do per36 which can sometimes inflate the stats of a low minute player like KJ he's still blown out of the water.
Check my overall reply because in addition to comparing these players I actually compared players that are relevant to the conversation.
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Post by James Kay on Apr 12, 2017 20:15:31 GMT
Serge/Sabonis: Serge has elite athleticism and weak side defense. The record OKC would have if he was still in town are the primary differences. Goran/Austin: Dragic is actually good and Rivers is barely NBA caliber. Khris/KJ: One was the difference maker pushing his team over the lotto hump and into the playoffs, KJ I'm not even sure is still on a team. Ibaka/Sabonis:Might have bought it if you had mentioned offense. Sabonis is actually a pretty elite defender, both on-ball and off-ball. He ranks higher than Serge is almost every statistical defensive category except blocks (this is the same fallacy that a lot of people who don't understand basketball look to when trying to assess big man defense. Your mistake is the same reason non-basketball people think guys like Andre Drummond are good on defense when in reality he is absolute trash). www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM/position/6Goran/Austin:Might be true, but you can't just say one player is better, that is the entire point of this discussion. I could have responded to James that Booker is actually good and Nick Young is barely NBA caliber (also true). Khris/KJ:Decent argument but unfortunately we do not really rank players based on win shares in this league (see: all players on real-life Timberwolves). Lol, wow, didn’t even realize that you actually had all these players on your roster – I just thought they were random bad players you brought up. Why are you so spiteful? I asked a genuine question and I get responded to by bringing up all my players. As Jeremiah showed, the comparisons I put forward weren’t that crazy. And as for your response to Ibaka, the guy has been an elite rim protector for years. He has an established reputation. You can’t rely on DRPM (a questionable stat) in a year where he gets shipped off to a bottoming team like the Magic after playing for a contender his whole career. Since he’s been in Toronto they’ve held teams to under 100 ppg, whereas they were allowing 104.5 beforehand. They’ve also gone 17-7, and a lot of that without Lowry. But that’s not rely relevant to this thread anyway.
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Post by Walt Frazier on Apr 12, 2017 20:18:45 GMT
Just a question broheim. Thanks. I'll go a firm 81 Slow down a sec. Read my post then reevaluate. Dammit, I got lulled into the Barber trick where he rarely seems to post %'s or TO's or even things like blocks or 3pt made or anything other than the big stats that might support him. I don't know if it's done sneakily or not, I kind of want to give him the benefit of the doubt, he's kind of consistent about it, I think that's just his method of evaluating, but, yea, I usually try to get all the stats. Anyway, I like the in depth analysis. I personally think someone like Wiggins is a little underrated just b/c "athleticism" and those types of things, but I'd have to really look into his ratings to stand by that comment with a lot of gusto. As for Booker, I'm going to go 80, understanding I would currently put Wiggins 81 or 82.
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Apr 12, 2017 20:19:15 GMT
Just having fun and showing some of the absurdity of our comparisons. Only thing I legitimately disagree with is Ibaka being a better defender than Sabonis. It was literally the only reason Sabonis started for as long as he did.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Apr 12, 2017 21:58:45 GMT
Just having fun and showing some of the absurdity of our comparisons. Only thing I legitimately disagree with is Ibaka being a better defender than Sabonis. It was literally the only reason Sabonis started for as long as he did. He's alright. Ibaka definitely atrophied in Orlando. I think OKC Ibaka compared to Sabonis is not even comparable. Now I will say he's impressed me a lot. Not a lot of rookies can come in and contribute in a meaningful way to winning basketball. He gets tons of brownie points in my book. If he comes in next season with 5-10 more pounds of muscle and a more refined jump shot then he's got allstar and guy who everyone whiffed on written all over him. IDK if that'll happen. But you have a good prospect on your hands. Try and not trade him away all willy nilly.
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Post by Jared Montini on Apr 13, 2017 1:00:11 GMT
80
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Post by Ian Noble on Apr 13, 2017 8:52:02 GMT
81 after reading Jeremiah's dissertation
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Apr 13, 2017 18:50:57 GMT
81 after reading Jeremiah's dissertation I don't know how you got the conclusion that he was better than Wiggins from that.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Apr 13, 2017 18:51:09 GMT
My vote is 79.
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Apr 13, 2017 19:01:04 GMT
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Post by Ian Noble on Apr 13, 2017 19:14:35 GMT
81 after reading Jeremiah's dissertation I don't know how you got the conclusion that he was better than Wiggins from that. Wiggins should be 83 imho, level with Jabari.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Apr 13, 2017 21:29:13 GMT
Well considering Jokic almost lead a littery team to the playoffs contributes more than inefficient points. Yes I did rate him that.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Apr 13, 2017 21:29:58 GMT
78 he's clearly worse than Lou Williams and Eric Gordan in just about every conceivable way.
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Apr 13, 2017 21:37:59 GMT
Well considering Jokic almost lead a littery team to the playoffs contributes more than inefficient points. Yes I did rate him that. >> Leads a lottery team to the lottery >> 89
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Apr 14, 2017 0:35:39 GMT
Well considering Jokic almost lead a littery team to the playoffs contributes more than inefficient points. Yes I did rate him that. >> Leads a lottery team to the lottery >> 89 "Does more than only shoot 18 times a game"*
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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Apr 14, 2017 1:52:32 GMT
I'll go 80 for now but I anticipate another increase next season
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Apr 14, 2017 16:36:49 GMT
I'll go 80 for now but I anticipate another increase next season Wow.
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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Apr 14, 2017 17:37:34 GMT
I'll go 80 for now but I anticipate another increase next season Wow. 80 really isn't a crazy rating given that he is a good creator and good shooter stuck on a suns team that's just a few steps up from the D league. Just because he isn't efficient at those things yet doesn't mean he doesn't have those skills. You voted 78, 2 more rating points isn't that huge a deal imo
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Post by Alex English on Apr 14, 2017 18:10:48 GMT
I'll give him that 80, but without him adding more to his game and doing what he does for a Suns team that isn't terrible first, I'm not sure I can go much higher.
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