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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Apr 24, 2014 4:36:43 GMT
88 James Harden Suggested rating: 86 (all offense) Seriously the worst perimeter defender in the league, which is surprising given that Brandon Jennings and Kyrie Irving play in the same league. Evidence They have to hide him on the other teams worst offensive player. It's his fault Dwight gets into so much foul trouble trying to help on Harden's man. He is a mercurial offensive player, I'll give him that. Even if it is mostly on stupid head fake touch foul calls which don't get called in the playoffs. There has to be some sort of off-ball defense stat, or defensive awareness stat and whichever stat that is they both need to be down among the lowest in the league. This came to a head when he gives up a cherry pick with 30 seconds left in a playoff game. Could a player give less of a damn about defense? Irving sucks at D but at least he's paying attention. From Zach Lowe: Houston ranks 20th in points allowed per possession, and their perimeter defense has been leaky all season. Harden has emerged as the worst offender, not a surprise given that lots of guys regress on defense when asked to assume more responsibility on offense. Harden has several bad habits, including reaching when he should slide; jumping himself out of position very early against pick-and-rolls; and gambling for steals when he recovers toward his man after dropping down toward the foul line to help on penetration. The Rockets have even hidden Harden now and then on the weakest opposing perimeter player, forcing Carlos Delfino and Chandler Parsons — another serial gambler — into assignments above their respective pay grades. This isn’t quite a crisis, but Harden needs to find a better balance to his game.
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Post by Ian Noble on Apr 24, 2014 20:51:09 GMT
I'm not a fan of Harden, but the decrease bandwagon is coming as a result of his disastrous 1st round play so far and it's getting too much attention. Let's hold off on changing him is my opinion.
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Post by Ian Noble on Apr 24, 2014 20:51:30 GMT
I'm not a fan of Harden, but the decrease bandwagon is coming as a result of his disastrous 1st round play so far and it's getting too much attention. Let's hold off on changing him is my opinion.
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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Apr 24, 2014 21:05:52 GMT
I agree with Ian
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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Apr 24, 2014 21:06:09 GMT
I agree with Ian
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Post by Charles Barkley on Apr 24, 2014 22:22:19 GMT
Playoffs make a player, or in this case destroy one. Harden was fine on the Thunder because Russell is so athletic and can actually play defense when he wants to. I am of the school that the playoffs are the money games. I mean, Jonas will likely get an increase based off of his stellar performances and so will Aldridge.
It isn't like Harden all of a sudden forgot how to play defense. He has had this problem his whole career. The tape doesn't lie.
86, still keeps him as an All-Star, lower his defensive awareness.
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Post by Charles Barkley on Apr 24, 2014 22:22:31 GMT
Playoffs make a player, or in this case destroy one. Harden was fine on the Thunder because Russell is so athletic and can actually play defense when he wants to. I am of the school that the playoffs are the money games. I mean, Jonas will likely get an increase based off of his stellar performances and so will Aldridge.
It isn't like Harden all of a sudden forgot how to play defense. He has had this problem his whole career. The tape doesn't lie.
86, still keeps him as an All-Star, lower his defensive awareness.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Apr 25, 2014 0:03:47 GMT
I'm not a fan of Harden, but the decrease bandwagon is coming as a result of his disastrous 1st round play so far and it's getting too much attention. Let's hold off on changing him is my opinion. The evidence video is from this whole season. The Zach Lowe quote is from December.
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Post by Alex English on Apr 25, 2014 0:52:38 GMT
This thread is garbage. If anything Harden deserves an increase. He is the third best wing player in the league behind Lebron and Durant and has one of the best offensive games in the league. A youtube video is shit evidence. You could literally make any player look bad by stringing together their worst plays over the course of an 82 game season. Just watch Shaqtin a Fool, Lebron has made multiple appearances on that show.
I'm not at all saying that he's a good defender, because he isn't, but he not a liability, just mediocre. His defensive rating is 107, higher than teammates Chandler Parsons (108), Patrick Beverley (108), Jeremy Lin (109), and unsurprisingly he has the highest offensive rating on the Rockets team.
Also unlike a few other guys around the league like Melo or Love, Harden is the number one player on a successful team. He doesn't just pad his stats, his team actually wins games.
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Post by Alex English on Apr 25, 2014 1:40:52 GMT
Alex, I'm sorry but, third best wing player in the league? Hahaha Yup. Actually I might take Wade over Harden right now if he's actually healthy, but considering that he's 32 years old and is very injury prone, if I'm the GM of a team, I take Harden who is 8 years younger and doesn't have the same injury history. I'd take Harden over Melo though, and I'd take him over Kobe. Who else is there?
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Apr 25, 2014 1:53:05 GMT
This thread is garbage. If anything Harden deserves an increase. He is the third best wing player in the league behind Lebron and Durant and has one of the best offensive games in the league. A youtube video is shit evidence. You could literally make any player look bad by stringing together their worst plays over the course of an 82 game season. Just watch Shaqtin a Fool, Lebron has made multiple appearances on that show. I'm not at all saying that he's a good defender, because he isn't, but he not a liability, just mediocre. His defensive rating is 107, higher than teammates Chandler Parsons (108), Patrick Beverley (108), Jeremy Lin (109), and unsurprisingly he has the highest offensive rating on the Rockets team. Also unlike a few other guys around the league like Melo or Love, Harden is the number one player on a successful team. He doesn't just pad his stats, his team actually wins games. His team actually wins games because they have a decent supporting cast and good role players unlike Melo or Love. Second, you don't think that slightly better defensive rating than his team mates has anything at all to do with the fact that he gets hidden on the opposing team's worst offensive guard? Also defensive rating is heavily factored into how good your big man is at defense and he has had good defensive bigs on his team his whole career. He has the same 108 drtg as Kyrie Irving who is bad at defense and DOESN'T even have the luxury of a great defensive player behind him to bail him out. James Harden is awful at defense, he's a great offensive player but even though points get allstar votes it doesn't mean you are a great player. Chris Paul is a great player, LeBron James is a great player. There is a difference between not giving full effort on D because it's a regular season match up against say the Pistons or some crap. But it's another thing to just be so completely disinterested that it directly leads to your team losing it's most important game of the season. HALF of being good at defense is just effort and paying attention.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Apr 25, 2014 2:02:01 GMT
You can keep him at an 88 but I think whatever defensive stats other than steals (his ridiculous gambling should stay realistic) should be lowered and you just increase some more offensive stuff to make it the same.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2014 16:01:41 GMT
I can't find the video I want but I agree with Hill for once. With that said, however, I think he is overlooking his best piece of evidence. In game 1, Portland came out and posted up Wesley Matthews on Harden and it worked very well. To be honest, it doesn't look Harden even tries on defense which makes me raise my eyebrows. No elite players should get abused like that on defense and I think it should be taken into consideration in his rating since we are raising and lowering guys based on a small sample size, right Detroit? I also disagree with Ian's argument about "waiting" because the playoffs are really the most important thing in the grand scheme of things and should be taken into consideration more so than the regular season. Then again, Bosh should get lowered for his shitty post defense against Indiana in the playoffs last year. Therefore, my vote will be an 88 for now but it wouldn't take much to convince me to go down to an 86.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2014 17:26:48 GMT
I can't find the video I want but I agree with Hill for once. With that said, however, I think he is overlooking his best piece of evidence. In game 1, Portland came out and posted up Wesley Matthews on Harden and it worked very well. To be honest, it doesn't look Harden even tries on defense which makes me raise my eyebrows. No elite players should get abused like that on defense and I think it should be taken into consideration in his rating since we are raising and lowering guys based on a small sample size, right Detroit? I also disagree with Ian's argument about "waiting" because the playoffs are really the most important thing in the grand scheme of things and should be taken into consideration more so than the regular season. Then again, Bosh should get lowered for his shitty post defense against Indiana in the playoffs last year. Therefore, my vote will be an 88 for now but it wouldn't take much to convince me to go down to an 86. Yes Harden plays very little D, but he Can be a scoring machine. I agree with Ian about waiting. Mostly because the playoffs are not over and Houston is not eliminated yet. What if they win the series and make it to the Finals or ECF. What if he blows up and amazes us in other series. We can and should judge players off the playoffs. But we should wait until a players team is officially eliminated. And to be fair to all other player's I'm the playoffs we should just wait until after the finals. Then adjusting those players around the same time to our league would be fair to the gms in our league. Just my opinion.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2014 17:42:39 GMT
I can't find the video I want but I agree with Hill for once. With that said, however, I think he is overlooking his best piece of evidence. In game 1, Portland came out and posted up Wesley Matthews on Harden and it worked very well. To be honest, it doesn't look Harden even tries on defense which makes me raise my eyebrows. No elite players should get abused like that on defense and I think it should be taken into consideration in his rating since we are raising and lowering guys based on a small sample size, right Detroit? I also disagree with Ian's argument about "waiting" because the playoffs are really the most important thing in the grand scheme of things and should be taken into consideration more so than the regular season. Then again, Bosh should get lowered for his shitty post defense against Indiana in the playoffs last year. Therefore, my vote will be an 88 for now but it wouldn't take much to convince me to go down to an 86. Yes Harden plays very little D, but he Can be a scoring machine. I agree with Ian about waiting. Mostly because the playoffs are not over and Houston is not eliminated yet. What if they win the series and make it to the Finals or ECF. What if he blows up and amazes us in other series. We can and should judge players off the playoffs. But we should wait until a players team is officially eliminated. And to be fair to all other player's I'm the playoffs we should just wait until after the finals. Then adjusting those players around the same time to our league would be fair to the gms in our league. Just my opinion. Who cares if they win or lose? Honestly, I think Mchale should be blamed if they lose, not Harden, because his decision to make Dwight the focal point of the offense out of the blue threw the Rocket's rhythm off. With that said, Harden better man up on defense or we should decrease him.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2014 17:51:20 GMT
I agree. But it's not fair to decrease one player before others. Why Waste time changing a rating that may Change again before the season's over IRL. There are just times we should wait on making changes. Just like making changes midseason. Just a bad idea in my opinion. But I'm one opinion and we are a league so we just need more opinions and then you must talk Ian into it..
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2014 18:06:56 GMT
I agree. But it's not fair to decrease one player before others. Why Waste time changing a rating that may Change again before the season's over IRL. There are just times we should wait on making changes. Just like making changes midseason. Just a bad idea in my opinion. But I'm one opinion and we are a league so we just need more opinions and then you must talk Ian into it.. I agree with you on the timing of the ratings but Ian doesn't get paid to do this. Therefore, he does them when he can and that's the way it's going to be.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2014 18:36:19 GMT
I agree but I don't think Ian will do much with ratings of those in the playoffs until later. I think that's a good move. What we need done is those I've mentioned before decreased. .ASAP...NASH, ETC..
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Magic Johnson
Former Lakers GM
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Post by Magic Johnson on Apr 26, 2014 16:01:29 GMT
You guys keep talking about Harden and his terrible defense, what about his mindless chucking on offense. since 2012 NBA finals THE MIGHTY JAMES Harden has averaged (whom Skip Bayless loves to death) PPG: 21.571 FG: 0.3673 or 36 percent from the field 3PT: 0.3125 or 31 percent from 3 he took 245 shots and only made 90 of them since then. he took 96 3's and only made 30 of them. and so far he has only had 2 great games which was Game 2 against Miami and Game 5 against his former team OKC. And it's funny Alex saying Harden deserves a increase, if you look at his starters and the way they have been performing as of late, you'd think each guy deserves couple of points decrease instead of increase so I don't know where this HARDEN DESERVES INCREASE comes from. prntscr.com/3dmriaprntscr.com/3dmsy2prntscr.com/3dmu6mPosting the calcs here too so if anyone wants to add them up they can.
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Apr 26, 2014 16:23:11 GMT
Honestly, it wouldn't be a stretch to say Harden is the worst defensive SG in the league. You could make an argument about a couple other guys, but Harden is at least bottom 5, and probably bottom 3.
As others have pointed out, this is mainly due to a sheer lack of effort. Harden just doesn't care on the defensive end. I don't know if this is a lack of maturity or what, but it definitely separates him from other "stars" in the league.
If you watch Houston games, Harden is either a hero or the reason for a loss. He has poor ball movement, is greedy on the court, and lacks basketball IQ. His shot selection is decent just because he drives so much, but at times he often shoots the Rockets out of games.
I can't find where I posted this anywhere, but I remember thinking our initial boost of Harden up to 88 was completely reactionary. It actually really caught me off guard, the same way our Paul George boost did. I think we're often desperate to find the next big thing in the league, and some guys get labeled as "stars" by the media, but in reality they aren't really in the same class as actual stars.
Harden is a volume scorer, but not much more. He has a beard and is very marketable, which is why he's rated as high as he is.
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Post by Alex English on Apr 26, 2014 18:49:43 GMT
I made a little comparison with James Harden to show how good he is offensively. He isn't just a volume scorer he is actually very efficient and on a level that is only matched by Lebron, Durant and Wade if he is healthy. Here is how he stacks up with Carmelo and Kobe who both have much higher ratings. This comparison is of Harden's 2 seasons in Houston, Melo's 3 full seasons in New York, and the previous 5 seasons of Kobe before this year. The sample sizes are huge so there is none of this garbage where people try to draw conclusions off of only a few game. If you look at their raw stats all three of them are extremely similar. Harden averages 1 less point per game, we will come back to that though. He is unsurprisingly the worst rebounder and Melo is unsurprisingly the best. He averages the most assists, most steals, and they're all basically equal on blocks. The only real negative for Harden is that he gives up more turnovers than the other two. The only significant separation in their percentages is that Kobe is a worse three point shooter compared to the other two. With raw output alone Harden matches up with Kobe and Melo but when you look at the second set of stats though you see how good Harden really is. Kobe and Melo are shockingly similar while Harden is clearly the most efficient of the three. As mentioned before he averages 1 less point per game, but that comes from 4 less field goal attempts. He also gets to the line more than the other two and despite 4 less attempts per game he has the most three point attempts per game. When you calculate it you see that 38% of Harden's attempts are 3s compared to 21% for Kobe and 25% for Melo. His field goal percentage is already comparable before taking this into account and when you do you see with his True Shooting Percentage that he is a significantly more efficient scorer with his TS% at 60.9% compared to 55.1% for Kobe and 55.2% for Melo. The greater efficiency is probably why his WS/48 is so much higher despite all three PER ratings being essentially the same. His usage percentage further shows his greater efficiency which is 5% lower. Also despite all the ragging on his defense his D Rating is only 1 point lower, but this is more than made up for with his offense where his O Rating is 7 points higher. If you were to just go by stats then Harden should have a rating in the low/mid 90s. Obviously defense is important to consider though. Taking it into account though, I don't see how an 88 makes him overrated. His offensive skills are much better than an 88 rating but his defensive skills are much worse. He is similar to Nash when he was in Phoenix where he was always criticized for poor defense, but he more than made up for it with his offensive production. Even if you seriously want him lowered, then what do you propose lowering? It certainly can't be any of his offensive categories. Of course defensive awareness is the obvious one, but how do we know that and his other defensive categories aren't already lower than most players of similar talent? I think the only way to seriously consider lowering Harden is to get the player ratings database from Ian and discuss each of his categories individually.
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Apr 26, 2014 18:58:38 GMT
None of those stats mean anything until you take pace into account
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Apr 26, 2014 18:59:44 GMT
Plus, Kobe is/was an elite defender. Carmelo at least tries to play defense. Those guys aren't rated as high as they are just because of offense.
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Post by Alex English on Apr 26, 2014 19:24:25 GMT
None of those stats mean anything until you take pace into account It's pretty impressive you are able to completely dismiss everything I said with only one sentence. Especially since pace is actually already considered in many of the stats or it's just irrelevant for others. Pace is already accounted for in the calculations for PER and WS/48 minutes. Also for Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating which calculate points score for/against per 100 possessions. Pace is irrelevant for percentages since they are a per shot measurement. It's really just PPG, RPG, APG, SPG, BPG, and TPG which are affected by pace. Anyway here is the pace for each of them: Harden: 2013-14 - 96.3 2012-13 - 96.1 Average - 96.2 Bryant: 2012-13 - 94.4 2011-12 - 90.5 2010-11 - 90.7 2009-10 - 92.8 2008-09 - 94.3 Average - 92.5 Anthony: 2013-14 - 90.3 2012-13 - 89.8 2011-12 - 93.2 Average - 91.1
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Post by Alex English on Apr 26, 2014 19:28:19 GMT
Plus, Kobe is/was an elite defender. Carmelo at least tries to play defense. Those guys aren't rated as high as they are just because of offense. I talked about this, it's the conclusion of my argument. If you were to just go by stats then Harden should have a rating in the low/mid 90s. Obviously defense is important to consider though. Taking it into account though, I don't see how an 88 makes him overrated. His offensive skills are much better than an 88 rating but his defensive skills are much worse. He is similar to Nash when he was in Phoenix where he was always criticized for poor defense, but he more than made up for it with his offensive production. Even if you seriously want him lowered, then what do you propose lowering? It certainly can't be any of his offensive categories. Of course defensive awareness is the obvious one, but how do we know that and his other defensive categories aren't already lower than most players of similar talent? I think the only way to seriously consider lowering Harden is to get the player ratings database from Ian and discuss each of his categories individually.
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Post by Alex English on Apr 26, 2014 19:30:21 GMT
Sorry to go off-topic, but what was the reasoning behind taking down the ratings database? I think it was just lost when the site automatically updated and Ian just never added it back for whatever reason. I'm not sure though.
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Apr 26, 2014 19:44:32 GMT
None of those stats mean anything until you take pace into account It's pretty impressive you are able to completely dismiss everything I said with only one sentence. Especially since pace is actually already considered in many of the stats or it's just irrelevant for others. Pace is already accounted for in the calculations for PER and WS/48 minutes. Also for Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating which calculate points score for/against per 100 possessions. Pace is irrelevant for percentages since they are a per shot measurement. It's really just PPG, RPG, APG, SPG, BPG, and TPG which are affected by pace. Anyway here is the pace for each of them: Harden: 2013-14 - 96.3 2012-13 - 96.1 Average - 96.2 Bryant: 2012-13 - 94.4 2011-12 - 90.5 2010-11 - 90.7 2009-10 - 92.8 2008-09 - 94.3 Average - 92.5 Anthony: 2013-14 - 90.3 2012-13 - 89.8 2011-12 - 93.2 Average - 91.1 Thanks, I didn't mean to be condescending, but just raw offensive numbers alone are quite useless without considering contextual factors (see: everyone on the 76ers or Timberwolves). I don't know exactly how pace is calculated into those ratings, but, my point is, I expect Harden's numbers are a bit inflated due to being on a team with higher pace.
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Apr 26, 2014 19:48:15 GMT
Like I said in my original post though, I'm not really doubting his offensive ability. I would disagree that he's as good as Kobe or Melo, but he's definitely a top 10 offensive wing, maybe even top 5. But, ratings have to take into account more than just offense.
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Post by Alex English on Apr 26, 2014 19:52:02 GMT
Thanks, I didn't mean to be condescending, but just raw offensive numbers alone are quite useless without considering contextual factors (see: everyone on the 76ers or Timberwolves). I don't know exactly how pace is calculated into those ratings, but, my point is, I expect Harden's numbers are a bit inflated due to being on a team with higher pace. I honestly don't know how much of an affect 4 or 5 more possessions has on per game numbers, but yes, you are right that Harden's raw stats will be slightly inflated. But adjusting for that would also make the 4 less field goal attempts per game an even larger gap, and it won't make him any less efficient.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Apr 26, 2014 22:28:53 GMT
Plus, Kobe is/was an elite defender. Carmelo at least tries to play defense. Those guys aren't rated as high as they are just because of offense. I talked about this, it's the conclusion of my argument. If you were to just go by stats then Harden should have a rating in the low/mid 90s. Obviously defense is important to consider though. Taking it into account though, I don't see how an 88 makes him overrated. His offensive skills are much better than an 88 rating but his defensive skills are much worse. He is similar to Nash when he was in Phoenix where he was always criticized for poor defense, but he more than made up for it with his offensive production. Even if you seriously want him lowered, then what do you propose lowering? It certainly can't be any of his offensive categories. Of course defensive awareness is the obvious one, but how do we know that and his other defensive categories aren't already lower than most players of similar talent? I think the only way to seriously consider lowering Harden is to get the player ratings database from Ian and discuss each of his categories individually. We don't know, I would like to.
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