2022 Playoffs Matchup Preview - First Round
May 23, 2022 18:08:24 GMT
Ian Noble, Walt Frazier, and 7 more like this
Post by Andrei Kirilenko on May 23, 2022 18:08:24 GMT
2022 Playoffs Matchup Preview - First Round
1. Boston Celtics
64 wins, +10.8 differential, 48.2% FG, 439 lineup rating
8. TBD
4. Charlotte Hornets
50 wins, +5.5 differential, 45.0% FG, 435 lineup rating
5. Brooklyn Nets
47 wins, +2.5 differential, 48.1% FG, 434 lineup rating
Neither team will be happy about this matchup, and for good reason. The Hornets and the Nets boast the 2nd and 3rd best lineups in the East, respectively, and contain 4 of the highest 7 rated players in the conference. Not to mention the prize for winning this matchup is a second round date with the Boston Celtics, where 2 of the other 7 highest rated players await. Still, this series looks to be extremely even in terms of lineup strength and will likely be a toss-up. The Nets have serious questionmarks after a poor regular season performance, but will have the best player in the series in Nikola Jokic. The Hornets similarly underperformed in the regular season, but landed with home court advantage. This series may come down to the secondary stars; can Booker and Kyrie outperform Middleton and Kristaps? Or will the Hornets find a way to take advantage of home court and knock out the reigning Eastern Conference Champions in the first round?
Prediction: Hornets in 7
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
50 wins, +5.3 differential, 43.7% FG, 412 lineup rating
6. Miami Heat
45 wins, +2.0 differential, 43.0% FG, 397 lineup rating
I don't want to claim that Bismack Biyombo is broken in the sim, but he does have 87 DAwr, 83 Block, 84 OffReb, and 80 DReb; and the Heat have been dominant since slotting him into the starting lineup. The Cavs, on the other hand, struggled down the stretch after a Mike Conley ratings decrease, and have serious questionmarks surrounding their team. The Cavs have the best player in the series in Zach LaVine, but with just a 15 point lineup differential (and Biyombo's dominance), it's too close to call this series a sure-thing for the Cavs (plus, simply moving Lopez to the starting lineup makes the Heat 5 points closer). Still, after factoring in home-court advantage and Cleveland's previous success in the regular season, this may be Cleveland's chance to advance past Round One for the first time since 2014.
Prediction: Cavaliers in 6
2. Detroit Pistons
55 wins, +5.2 differential, 47.1% FG, 432 lineup rating
7. Indiana Pacers
42 wins, +3.0 differential, 44.1% FG, 410 lineup rating
The Pistons punched above their weight all season, ending with the 3rd best record in D5. But now, after acquiring Chris Paul, the lineup fits the record, and Chauncey has to feel great about his path to the ECF. The uniqueness of this team is its success with a non-shooting lineup: the Pistons took less 3s this season than any other team in D5, but also held opponents to fewer points than any other team in D5. The formula changes now with CP3 and Mitchell in the lineup, but Detroit will be looking to capitalize on its advantageous seeding. On the other hand, the Pacers make for an intriguing 7 seed; the lineup boasts 5 players with 80+ ratings and a +3.0 differential on the season. This is a team that could win a few game, but likely lacks the star power to make a deep run. I think Detroit should feel OK about this matchup, but not spectacular, as there are teams much worse than the Pacers that could have landed in this slot.
Prediction: Pistons in 6
1. Golden State Warriors
67 wins, +12.5 differential, 46.4% FG, 433 lineup rating
8. TBD
4. Houston Rockets
48 wins, +3.2 differential, 46.0% FG, 438 lineup rating
5. Memphis Grizzlies
45 wins, +3.5 differential, 45.6% FG, 416 lineup rating
The Rockets revamped their roster this season, and they now find themselves as the highest rated team in the West. The results did not follow, however, as the team underperformed after acquiring Jrue Holiday. The Grizzlies also have a revamped roster, but are missing their best player in Kawhi Leonard. Memphis' strength is in its depth, as they have numerous 80 rated players on the bench, but will find it hard to win a series where the best 2 players are on the other team. There are intriguing matchups here with Gobert and Bam guarding Giannis, but ultimately I think this series will be a chance for Houston to flex its muscles, even if the prize is a second round matchup with the reigning champions.
Prediction: Rockets in 6
3. Sacramento Kings
50 wins, +3.1 differential, 45.3% FG, 399 lineup rating
6. San Antonio Spurs
44 wins, +1.5 differential, 45.5% FG, 433 lineup rating
Despite having 2 of their 3 stars miss significant amounts of time this season due to injury, the Spurs find themselves in an extremely favorable position going into the playoffs. Not only is the team healthy, but their first-round matchup is a Kings team that inexplicably decided to blow up the roster with just a few weeks left in the season. And not only that, but the Spurs have also completely avoided the 3 highest rated teams in the West (other than themselves) until the conference finals. They will, of course, have to win each series on the road, but Gervin and the Spurs have to feel great about a deep playoff run with three 92+ rated players.
Prediction: Spurs in 5
2. New Orleans Pelicans
51 wins, +5.2 differential, 43.4% FG, 411 lineup rating
Portland Trail Blazers
42 wins, -0.3 differential, 45.6% FG, 400 lineup rating
The Pelicans outperformed their lineup rating more than any other team this season, which has resulted in them finding themselves in a 2 vs 7 matchup that is actually the 2nd-most even matchup on paper in the entire first round (behind only CHA-BKN). The Blazers could actually start Bojan to make the lineups 5 points closer, which means this series is more-or-less a toss-up. The Pelicans have home-court advantage and the best player in the series, which should be enough to get them through; but don't discount Jerry playing some funky lineups and making the Pelicans sweat as they try to get past a well-balanced Blazers attack.
Prediction: Pelicans in 7