Post by George Gervin on Dec 10, 2021 19:23:50 GMT
Welcome, my fellow GMs, to this year's iteration D5 Mock Draft Series! Given the response and interest to last year's version, it seems I have found my D5PN Media Center corner in the GM community. Same rules as last year -- there will be a pre-season version that is picks 1-14, a post-ASG version that is 1-30, a post-season finish version that includes teams with no 1sts who have 2nds in the 2022 draft, and finally a post-D5 lottery version.
For any new GMs who have taken over since last year's was released, there's only one rule on the first iteration pre-season: I am making no projections about record. This order was derived from the final season standings from last year, just to make it easier for this first projection. The second update takes into account progress to date, so some teams will DEFINITELY move up the mock ladder given some of these contending types who stripped down their rosters this offseason.
All that said, here is the 2022 D5 mock lottery! Stay tuned for the post-ASG update in mid-spring 2022.
For any new GMs who have taken over since last year's was released, there's only one rule on the first iteration pre-season: I am making no projections about record. This order was derived from the final season standings from last year, just to make it easier for this first projection. The second update takes into account progress to date, so some teams will DEFINITELY move up the mock ladder given some of these contending types who stripped down their rosters this offseason.
All that said, here is the 2022 D5 mock lottery! Stay tuned for the post-ASG update in mid-spring 2022.
- Phoenix Suns - Paolo Banchero (PF), Duke University. At #1 in the pre-season mock are Brad Stevens and the Suns. Featuring a new GM after Jared Montini stepped down post 2021 draft, the Suns wasted no time revamping their roster. Out the door were many of the recent draftees going back to 2018's selection of Mo Bamba in the top 4, and into the Valley of the Sun strode new core trio of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Mikal Bridges, and rookie bigman Alperen Sengun. While I don't expect the Suns to remain at the top of this mock by the post-ASG version, in this version, they go for the most ready made prospect in this draft in Paolo Banchero. A smooth offensive player on the wings and on the block, Banchero can get wherever he wants and displays surprising range for a freshman. He's already a powerfully built player at his age, though he absolutely needs to improve his conditioning (gets winded far too often for Duke) if he hopes to play the kind of minutes he projects at the NBA level. Profile wise, he's not someone who I expect to be a 1st option type at the NBA level, with his best outcome likely as a high-level 2nd option on a playoff contender. For the Suns, he'd represent an interesting frontcourt pairing with Sengun, where defense would be lacking but offensive creativity and versatility would be in spades. Most importantly, he is the safest bet to hit his highest outcome as a player of the projected top 5 players in this class; with SGA and Bridges showing more 'win-now' tendencies, going for a higher floor prospect would behoove the Suns to further accelerate their ascent in the Western Conference.
- New York Knicks - Jabari Smith (F), University of Auburn. With the #2 pick, we have Arvydas Sabonis and the Knicks. Thus far, their drafting record in the last two years under their GM has been sterling to put it mildly. Tyrese Halliburton in the back half of the lottery looks to be a steal, and Evan Mobley has come into the NBA as a gangbuster defensively and offensively a pleasant surprise. With two spots secured in the Knicks future starting five between those two cornerstones, the Knicks go for this draft's most complete wing in Jabari Smith. As a prospect, there's a ton to like with Smith on the wing. Shooting capability? Check -- form is pristine, release is quick, and at 6'10" he can get it off versus anyone. Defense? Check -- regularly at the top of the 1-3-1 zone used by Auburn and defensively this season the Tigers have been amazing with Smith the primary reason. BBIQ and passion? Check -- the guy is an energizer bunny on the court and is always going 110% effort. If there is a concern with Smith, it's his need to further refine his ball handling and playmaking, as right now he projects more as taller Klay Thompson than say a Paul George level two way player. However, with the Knicks having nailed their last two selections, they can afford to go all-in on a guy who not only fills a need on the wing, but also projects as the highest floor prospect outside of Banchero in this whole class. The Knicks would have a pretty envious young trio to pitch to prospective free agents in the 2022 offseason with Smith in tow.
- Minnesota Timberwolves - Chet Holmgren (C), Gonzaga University. Full disclosure, and a 4th wall break here, from me: I hate a lot about Chet as a prospect, chiefly the frame and strength issues coupled with some real athleticism gaps (especially vertically) that is readily apparent on tape. However, I cannot ignore the fact that defensively he is an absolute game changer, and for Walt Frazier and the Timberwolves, this is a bit of a dream scenario should Smith and Banchero go top 2. Beyond the need to add a big up front next to 2021 OSFA signee Richaun Holmes, Chet is a nice compliment on paper to the TWolves main pieces. Holmgren's elite traits are all on the defensive end: in the last 12 college seasons, there's only three prospects who have posted a defensive BPM in the same stratosphere as Holmgren: Anthony Davis, Zion Williamson, and Evan Mobley. The moonlighting Saints Left Tackle in the middle of that group aside, that's pretty solid company to be in if you're projecting translation to the NBA level defensively. With Cade Cunningham running the offense, and an elite spacer in Gary Trent Jr and a solid offensive center in Holmes, Holmgren can be asked to focus on his best traits and come along slowly on offense. Plus, being early into a rebuild, the TWolves have time on their side to wait on Chet's upside to hopefully materialize. An additional bonus: as a Twin Cities kid, this should be a boon for the TWolves ticket sales.
- Detroit Pistons (via LAC) - Patrick Baldwin Jr (F), University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. With the #4 selection, the Detroit Pistons check in as a result of the James Bouknight draft night deal with the Clippers. Chauncey Billups and the Pistons had an eventful offseason, as they fended off suitors for Sabonis to retain him next to Deandre Ayton and managed to thieve Dejounte Murray from the Bucks in one of the biggest signings this past offseason. With a pretty solid starting five already in place, the Pistons can go Best Player Available that also acknowledges they have their frontcourt essentially locked up for the next 4-5 seasons. A prospect like Jalen Duren, who is #4 on my Big Board, doesn't make sense for the Pistons. However, like the Knicks at #2, the Pistons with this selection go for the two way wing in Patrick Baldwin Jr from UW-Milwaukee. PBJ brings a lot to table as a prospect that screams 'elite 3 and D'. While his shooting stats haven't quite reflected it, he has arguably one of the best looking shots of any prospect to come out in the last five years. It's tight, compact, minimal effort, and at 6'9", he can get it off on 95% of defenders. His release is also very quick as well. Where PBJ and Jabari Smith diverge as prospects on the wing is the 'D' part of the wing arsenal. Smith is a very, very good defender for Auburn and has shown that with real results. PBJ, on the other hand, is a more theoretical quality defender than one who has actually backed it up. He will need some work to get to even above average on that end at the NBA level, but his shooting profile on the move and spacing threat will be super desirable to franchises in the lottery. Additionally, he hasn't shown playmaking chops which doesn't portend well that he can do that consistently at the NBA level. For the Pistons, he's a guy who, in time, could make Keldon Johnson expendable as their roster becomes very expensive in a few seasons or be a very interchangeable playoff chess piece as they look to continue their rise up the D5 Eastern Conference standings.
- Oklahoma City Thunder - Jaden Ivey (G), Purdue University. Checking in at the 5th selection is D5's newest GM Bill Walton and the Thunder. Assuming the Thunder right before the outset of free agency, the Thunder's biggest moves in the offseason were offloading Wendell Carter Jr. for Josh Primo, retaining Malik Beasley on a solid contract, and not giving into the urge to dump James Wiseman or Kevin Knox in a hard reset of the roster. All that said, save for Jonathan Kuminga, there isn't a player on this roster who I would look at and confidently say they're a future guaranteed starter on this team. The Thunder are also lacking a quality guard prospect, as Primo is nice but incredibly far away from contributing and Aaron Holiday is buried amongst the Wizards rotation player bloat. Enter Jaden Ivey, who has had displayed an enormous second year leap with the Boilermakers and has quickly shot up draft boards. A high energy, very athletic and long guard, Ivey should be able to be a defensive menace at the NBA level with the improved shooting profile to be respectable offensively. I'm still not sure if he's a true second, let alone first, option at his career apex, but for the Thunder, they need to start swinging on talent with high ceilings and there's few guys who have shown the time of development curve that Ivey possesses. At the very least, he's a worthwhile gamble based on his athletic traits and energy alone.
- Portland Trailblazers - Jalen Duren (F/C), University of Memphis. At #6, we have Jerry West and the Trailblazers. Offseason wise, they had a mixed bag; while they secured the apple of their draft eye in Josh Giddey, who has looked every bit the passer he was in the NBL in the NBA for OKC, and retained Jonas Valanciunus on what appears to be a bargain extension, they lost a bidding war to the Bucks to keep Terrance Mann as a starting wing of the future. With two recent draftees appearing to be future cornerstones in Tyrese Maxey and Josh Giddey, the Blazers could go a number of directions. In a polar opposite to their current frontcourt featuring either plodding players like JV and Hartenstein or a twig like Poku, the Blazers grab an athletic and physical freak in Jalen Duren out of Memphis. As a defender, Duren has been very impressive serving as a real backline deterrent (and doing his best volleyball spike cameo) for the Tigers defense. Physically built like a brickhouse for a freshman, he should have no problem walking into the League and handling its physical rigors right away. Where Duren should give pause is offensively-- namely, he appears very raw and his processing of the game isn't where it should be at this stage. Now, not to give Duren a pass, but he did graduate a year early from High School and is navigating a big jump in competition -- not to mention a big step in coaching quality too with Memphis featuring Penny, Larry Brown, and Sheed Wallace on the bench. There were going to be lumps along the way for him. For Portland, they have young guys (as well as vets) who are real passers and playmakers that should help reduce the need for Duren to create for himself or execute complicated reads-- instead, he can focus on what he's good at, which is elite finishing and being a defensive monster covering for the Blazers backcourt, and develop into what would hopefully be Portland's center of the future.
- Denver Nuggets - Kendall Brown (F), Baylor University. With the 7th pick, we have Alex English and the Nuggets, who feel a bit like the guy who plays Monopoly to just acquire as many properties as they can and hope someone lands on a property with a lot of Hotels given their rampant player acquisition. Some acquisitions in the last year or so have panned out for the Nuggets -- Franz Wagner looks like a legit starter, Bones Hyland is a very fun player to watch, and Okongwu (when healthy) showed real promise up front for the Hawks. Others -- looking at you, Jaxson Hayes and Mason Jones -- not so much, but with so many chances to make selections, the Nuggets can afford to take risks. In the 2022 draft, they grab one of my favorite prospects in Kendall Brown from Baylor. What makes Brown so tantalizing is his impact without the ball -- he's one of the best athletes in this class who has real defensive chops that plays within the flow of the game. He does an excellent job of not forcing the issue and letting both offense and defense come to him in a 6'9" package. He's also got an underrated feel for the game, as he's regularly threading crosscourt passes to Baylor guards or wings in the corner and with his athletic gifts he can blow by most defenders. His NBA outcome will ultimately be decided by one thing: shooting. His shot does not look pretty, and because of that he doesn't demonstrate consistent rhythm or repeatability on his form. If he can get that resolved, he's got the makings of a winning NBA player who might even be a star level two way wing. At worst, there's a clear role for this guy as a plus defender, intelligent player who won't fuck up an offense, and an athlete that won't get left in the dust. For Denver, he'd be an amazing compliment to Wagner and makes their wing pair a Swiss Army knife duo that could terrorize the League in time.
- Washington Wizards - Bennedict Mathurin (F), University of Arizona. Checking in at #8 are a lottery staple in D5, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and the Wizards. This looks to finally be the year where the eight season lottery cycle is broken, as they had arguably D5's most active offseason. Almost every legacy Wizards player and draftee went out the door to bring in Russell Westbrook, Karl Anthony-Towns, and Andrew Wiggins as their new trio, with OSFA buffering those trades through Kevin Love and Lou Will signings. While I'm sure they'd have rather retained Gary Trent Jr over adding an aging Lou Will, that's water under the bridge at this point. To that end, with this selection they grab a wing with real shooting proficiency and defensive chops in Bennedict Mathurin out of Arizona via Montreal. Mathurin is a guy who shows real touch on his shot with an array of floaters, runners, and driving finesse -- all improved from his freshman season last year at Zona where he was a real 1st round prospect in a deep draft. He's also a wing who can defend well and does so in a smooth, almost graceful, manner. Where Mathurin needs to improve is his shot selection, as he doesn't always take the wisest (or easiest) shots. That may be more a function of being miscast as 'the Man' on the Wildcats this year versus his likely role as an offball high level role player in the NBA, but hopefully it does not portend a guy who could be a flow killer in an offense. For the Wizards, they've got their ball dominant guys already, and what they need are complimentary pieces who serve a role and can do it well; Mathurin as a 3 and D guy fits like a glove for this current Wizards roster.
- Philadelphia 76ers - Nikola Jovic (F), Mega (Seribia). With the 9th pick, the luckiest lottery team of last season, Allen Iverson and the 76ers, check in as the lottery winds down. Moving up all the way to the 4th pick, they ended up grabbing Jalen Suggs from Gonzaga and will bank on him developing with the Magic into a powerful, downhill guard in a future backcourt pairing. They also executed arguably last season's craziest trade in sending away chronically injured Michael Porter Jr. for Ben "whiny baby" Simmons and Jerami Grant; several months later, incredibly Grant appears to be the jewel of that deal, as MPJ has gone under the knife a third time on his back before age 23 and Ben Simmons is working real hard on his Major League Gaming career versus trying to come back to the court. All that aside, the 76ers roster is an amalgam of weird talent fits, featuring funky wings (Kuzma, Grant, PJ Washington), clear cut role players (Steven Adams, Desmond Bane, Alex Caruso) and a giant hole at 1st option (will a mature Ben Simmons please stand up??) offensively. With this selection, they grab the first international player off the board (though technically Mathurin as a Canadian has that title in this mock) in Nikola Jovic of Serbia. Not to be confused with the reigning MVP, Jovic profiles as a stretch forward who can shoot with volume and touch. He does display some playmaking and passing chops, which is a pleasant surprise given his young age (just barely 19) and playing for a significant team in Europe in Mega. Where he will likely struggle at the NBA level is with the physicality and pace of the game, but in a situation like Philadelphia where there are many wings in front of him, he won't be asked to contribute immediately. He could be a nice stash pick for the 76ers that, if he improves, should ease a potential cap crunch down the line trying to retain all this talent.
- Los Angeles Lakers - TyTy Washington (G), University of Kentucky. As we round the corner towards the last few selections in the lottery, the Lakers and Mark Price are on the clock. Their offseason was spent big game hunting, as they were in on many free agents but left free agency with not a ton to show for it. Featuring a weird mix of aging talent, like CP3 and Al Horford, blended with young guys like RJ Barrett and Kevin Porter Jr, they're at a bit of a crossroads stuck between playoff competitor and potential bottom out candidate. With this selection, they grab a guy who could be a major piece moving forward in TyTy Washington of Kentucky. TyTy figures to be the latest in a line of Kentucky guards that do several things very well: attack the rim, break down guys off the dribble, and not show as much at the college level under Calipari as they probably will in the NBA. I'm not as high on TyTy showing out as I was on past Kentucky guard predecessors like SGA, Booker, or Maxey (Herro was a miss...blame the gator arms bias from me), but it's undeniable the level of talent he possess in a powerful guard package. For the Lakers, being able to learn under CP3 potentially (assuming he's retained) before taking over the reins in the backcourt would do wonders for his development. Completely unrelated, but TyTy also fits the LA lifestyle -- the dude, by far, did the best to date of any college athlete under the new Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) rules by going out to secure the bag from Louisville Porsche. Total hand and glove fit with the glitz of LA, and serves a real need going forward for this Lakers franchise.
- Miami Heat - Dyson Daniels (G), G League Ignite. At #11 are Shaquille O'Neal and the Miami Heat who, not unlike the Lakers at #10, are at their own roster crossroads. Miles Bridges has broken out, and Kevin Huerter has been impressive as well, but both are well behind Jrue Holiday on the career timeline and while they align better with Brandon Ingram, the fit is a bit clunky as all are wings. Right now, there isn't a long term guard prospect on this roster who would be an heir apparent to Holiday or replace Oladipo in the next two seasons. Enter Dyson Daniels, who may be a surprise to some as the first G League Ignite guy off the board ahead of the more heralded Jaden Hardy (more on him in a bit); however, if you watch his play, you walk away more comfortable with his projection and fit at the NBA level than Hardy right now. As a bigger guard (6'6", 200 LBs) with a high level feel for the game offensively and defensively, there's a lot to like in such a young player (won't turn 19 until 3 months before the draft) playing against pros in the G League. While the shooting hasn't really shown up, his shot isn't totally broken, and what is very encouraging is his well rounded play, as he displays solid to above average abilities on the boards, passing, and defensively. The biggest thing for Daniels will be patience for any team that drafts him -- he's super young, as already stated, and if you're looking for a guy to contribute right away, he isn't it. The Heat don't need Dyson to do that immediately, and they have the benefit of grabbing him now, letting him learn behind Holiday and hope he matures into a high level starter down the line.
- Detroit Pistons - Ochai Agbaji (F), University of Kansas. At #12, we have Chauncey Billups and the Pistons again with their own selection. I don't think the Pistons will be lottery bound by season's end -- in all likelihood they're at worst a play-in team, and at best stealing the 5 or 6 seed in the East for a guaranteed playoff berth -- but in this version, they supplement their first wing selection of Patrick Baldwin Jr. with another wing pick in Ochai Agbaji of Kansas. Agbaji is a jack of all trades player, and as a Senior, he should be able to come in immediately and contribute to any team. Throughout his Kansas career, he's shown the type of steady improvement and adding stuff to his game that has produced a well rounded player. His 3P%, for example, went from a dithering 30% on 4 attempts as a Freshman to a blistering 46% on 6 attempts as a Senior. His FG% (57%), FT% (76%), and all counting stats have steadily improved even with increased exposure and defensive attention as Kansas's featured star. If there's any downside to Agbaji, right now he's cast in a leading role where at the NBA level, he will need to accept being a complimentary role player barring further playmaking development. He's not a bad passer, but he's much more palatable as a guy who keeps the offense going than an initiator. I think for team's looking for surefire producer in this draft, there are few players more guaranteed to deliver than Agbaji. For the Pistons, having secured their core, it's now about rounding out the roster and grabbing guys who can contribute in a way that exceeds a low cap figure.
- Indiana Pacers - Jaden Hardy (G), G League Ignite. At #13, we have Larry Bird and the Pacers who, like the Wizards, completely upended their roster over the offseason and now feature a group of guys firmly in the 'win-now' camp. DeMar DeRozan and Bradley Beal form a potent 1-2 punch, but with cap constraints looming post offseason, the Pacers are bound to lose some talent with those two and Bogdan Bogdanovic all hitting free agency at the same time. There's not enough starting spots -- or money -- to go around, and selecting a guy like Hardy should help soften the blow to a degree. My second 4th wall moment here with Hardy: realistically, what is the difference between his profile as a prospect from, say, Cam Thomas, Dwayne Bacon, or Malik Beasley as offensive sparkplugs? And guess what, none of those guys were lottery talents like Hardy is projected, so there's a disconnect to me, personally, on what Hardy is and where Hardy will land on draft night. His transition to the G League has been a bit rough, as he was this year's Jalen Green as the crown jewel addition but unlike Green, he's been pushed aside by both Scoot Henderson's emergence and Dyson Daniels stellar play on the same team. Hardy is powerfully built and can get to the rim at ease, but outside of the blueprint to be a three-level scorer at the NBA level, he leaves a lot to be desired. Defensively, it's just not there for him, and as a playmaker, you're left asking for more watching him. For the Pacers, it sounds like I'm shitting on this potential selection, but at some point talent needs to override some of those risk factors and one thing Hardy doesn't lack is elite talent. Hopefully in the right developmental bubble he can look more like the guy who was rated only behind Holmgren in his High School class and less like a guy who belongs at the back of Round 1. Indiana can take the swing and if it pans out, then it'll soften their likely free agent subtraction of one of their guards. If it doesn't...hey, not all lotto picks work out, and it wouldn't be for a bad reason given Hardy's prospects.
- Toronto Raptors - Max Christie (F), Michigan State University. Finishing off the lottery is Bryan Colangelo and the Raptors, who didn't have their 2021 selection due to the Siakam trade with Denver and what they ultimately need is a Witch Doctor to cure their key players. Between Fultz, Hunter, Siakam, Hayes, and even Reddish, they just seem to end up with bad luck on injuries despite having a wealth of talent at their disposal. However, talent has a price, and pretty soon a massive cap bill will come due to keep all these guys together. It wouldn't be a bad idea for the Raptors to start thinking ahead on selections, which is where Max Christie comes in. Pre-college season, the Christie hype got a bit out of control; some draft analysts had him as a guy who could challenge for a top 5 selection based on how he looked in practices as MSU and with the Spartans usual grueling schedule to showcase. In reality, he hasn't quite put on an impressive display, though the talent is clearly there with Christie. The offensive end has been nightmarish for Christie, but the outline of a scoring wing is there and flashes through. Where he has shown up is defensively for MSU, and to that end he'd fit the mold of the TOR wing that they have accumulated over the years, such as Reddish, Hunter, Anunoby, and Nasir Little. With those four guys staring at extensions over each of the next three offseasons, despite them being rookie scale extensions, one is bound to be dangled an overpay and starting role that would make it challenging for TOR to match. Rather than lose them for nothing, adding a guy like Christie is a smart hedge that could even prompt a future consolidation move of some of those wings for a star before the cap bill comes due.