2021 Playoffs: First Round Matchup Preview
Jul 1, 2021 12:16:32 GMT
Ian Noble, Walt Frazier, and 6 more like this
Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Jul 1, 2021 12:16:32 GMT
2021 Playoffs Matchup Preview
1. Boston Celtics
61 wins, +7.8 differential, 48.8% FG, 430 lineup rating
8. Cleveland Cavaliers
50 wins, +6.0 differential, 45.5% FG, 418 lineup rating
The Celtics are probably not quite as good as their statistics and record shows, with recent injuries and trades skewing their strength. The Cavs are also probably the strongest 8 seed in D5 history, with 50 wins, a highly rated lineup, and a great point differential. Boston has the best 2 players in this series, however, and its hard to imagine LeBron and Embiid not making it through.
Prediction: Celtics in 6
4. Orlando Magic
53 wins, +8.2 differential, 46.5% FG, 411 lineup rating
5. Milwaukee Bucks
53 wins, +5.9 differential, 44.5% FG, 423 lineup rating
While the Magic should be favored here based on all statistical categories, and also have home court advantage, they are actually the lowest rated team in the East playoffs. The Bucks have found success in recent years with Anthony Davis and will have the 2 best players in this series. We've seen AD carry the Bucks deep into the playoffs before, and I ultimately don't think Orlando has the firepower to win this series.
Prediction: Bucks in 7
3. Atlanta Hawks
54 wins, +5.3 differential, 45.6% FG, 413 lineup rating
6. Charlotte Hornets
51 wins, +7.4 differential, 46.4% FG, 431 lineup rating
The Hawks are rewarded for their successful season by drawing the 6-seeded Hornets, who are definitely stronger than their record shows (and are actually the 2nd best team in the entire playoffs by my analysis). Charlotte is favored here in all statistical categories, and boasts a lineup rated 18 points higher than the Hawks.
Prediction: Hornets in 6
2. Brooklyn Nets
58 wins, +9.7 differential, 48.3% FG, 447 lineup rating
7. Chicago Bulls
44 wins, +3.8 differential, 42.8% FG, 421 lineup rating
The Bulls are hot right now and present an interesting challenge to Brookyln with 91 rated Lillard and 87 rated Vucevic, but a healthy Nets team is likely the favorite in the East right now, boasting the highest rated lineup in D5 playoffs history. Chicago will put up a fight against Kawhi's new team, but will likely run into a brick wall with their draw here.
Prediction: Nets in 6
Golden State Warriors
57 wins, +7.8 differential, 45.5% FG, 423 lineup rating
8. LA Lakers
37 wins, -2.0 differential, 42.0% FG, 410 lineup rating
The Lakers find themselves back in the playoffs after a strong finish to the season, but might be BBQ chicken in this matchup. The Warriors are a serious title contender with 2 of the top 5 players in the league, and won't be fazed by a sub-.500 team in the first round.
Prediction: Warriors in 4
4. San Antonio Spurs
45 wins, +1.2 differential, 44.8% FG, 417 lineup rating
5. Sacramento Kings
43 wins, +0.3 differential, 44.4% FG, 420 lineup rating
This is perhaps the most even matchup in the entire first round, with extremely similar statistics and lineup ratings for each team. The Spurs will have the best player in the series in Doncic, and will also have home court advantage, which I think makes them the favorites.
Prediction: Spurs in 7
3. Utah Jazz
47 wins, +3.2 differential, 45.3% FG, 406 lineup rating
6. New Orleans Pelicans
42 wins, +0.5 differential, 43.0% FG, 413 lineup rating
The 3 seeded Jazz surprisingly boast the lowest rated lineup in the entire playoffs, but will have the best player in this series in Jayson Tatum. The combination of Tatum and Capela is likely enough to squeeze by the Pelicans here, who are the least efficient team in the field, but I don't think either of these teams stand a chance to make a deep playoff run.
Prediction: Jazz in 6
2. Houston Rockets
52 wins, +7.5 differential, 45.6% FG, 436 lineup rating
7. Memphis Grizzlies
41 wins, +1.5 differential, 46.5% FG, 417 lineup rating
I don't think there is as much upset potential here as has been hyped. The Rockets are the better team with the ratings and point differential to show it. The Grizzlies will win a few games, but I don't see them advancing with guys in the starting lineup rated 72 and 75. Houston has to feel great about their path to the WCF.
Prediction: Rockets in 6