D5 Draft Analytics: 2019-20 Season Edition
Nov 2, 2020 3:17:45 GMT
Ian Noble, Walt Frazier, and 9 more like this
Post by Alex English on Nov 2, 2020 3:17:45 GMT
D5 Draft Analytics: 2019-20 Season Edition
Last season I did a big thing analyzing D5 draft picks. Based on that, assuming you care about what this model has to say, we learned that Chris Mullin is the best GM in D5 at drafting. I'm not going to write a multi-part series like last time, I'll just post all the results and you guys can take them for what they are.
First things first though, I made one big change to the model. Most of the best picks were determined to be second rounders because their expectations are so low that if one of them makes it they had huge multiples relative to their expected value. That part hasn't changed, but instead of just taking the percentage values as they are, I've normalized all of the results based on their percentile rank. So each pick now gets a grade between 0 and 100.
With this change good second round picks don't have double or triple the value of good first round picks. This does change the rankings though because now a resume of consistency is valued more than one of boom/bust. I think this is an improvement for judging individual picks, but I'll leave it up for debate whether or not this is better for judging our total resumes. I think it's a matter of opinion. If you make ten picks, would you rather have a bunch of good players, but no superstars? Or one superstar and the rest be busts? Which of the two gives a better sense for skill at drafting?
Anyway, here are the results, counting down from worst to best:
#36 – Clyde Drexler (N/A) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 19%
#35 – Elton Brand (UTA) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 27%
#34 – Bryan Colangelo (TOR) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 31%
#33 – Kevin Hollis (OKC) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 33%
#32 – Mark Price (LAL) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 35%
#31 – Mike Krzyzewski (LAC) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 36%
#30 – Jeremiah Hill (MEM) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 39%
#29 – Hanamichi Sakuragi (CLE) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 40%
#28 – Shaquille O’Neal (MIA) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 40%
#27 – Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (WAS) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 40%
#26 – Magic Johnson (N/A) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 41%
#25 – Billy King (NYK) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 42%
#24 – Jared Montini (PHX) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 43%
#23 – JR Wiles (N/A) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 45%
#22 – Charles Barkley (N/A) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 48%
#21 – Danny Longley (DAL) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 48%
#20 – Alex English (DEN) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 48%
#19 – Blake Bowman (N/A) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 50%
#18 – Allen Iverson (PHI) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 52%
#17 – Walt Frazier (MIN) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 52%
#16 – George Gervin (SAS) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 53%
#15 – Ian Noble (BOS) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 55%
#14 – Spike Lee (N/A) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 55%
#13 – Brian Scalabrine (NOP) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 55%
#12 – James Kay (CHA) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 56%
#11 – Jay-Z (ATL) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 57%
#10 – Jerry West (POR) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 57%
#9 – Josh Barber (BKN) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 57%
#8 – Glenn Robinson (MIL) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 62%
#7 – Shane Battier (CHI) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 63%
#6 – Vlade Divac (N/A) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 63%
#5 – Chauncey Billups (DET) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 64%
#4 – Larry Bird (IND) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 64%
#3 – Ghazny Dimalen (SAC) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 74%
#2 – Brandon Roy (N/A) – Average Draft Pick Value: 75%
#1 – Chris Mullin (GSW) – Average Draft Pick Grade: 83%
Overall Ranking