2020 Playoffs - Conference Finals Preview
May 31, 2020 15:12:51 GMT
Ian Noble, Walt Frazier, and 5 more like this
Post by Andrei Kirilenko on May 31, 2020 15:12:51 GMT
2020 Playoffs - Conference Finals Preview
1. Boston Celtics
8-2, +7.5 differential, 48.7% FG, 444 lineup rating
3. Charlotte Hornets
8-4, +4.1 differential, 46.4% FG, 441 lineup rating
After a 25 point game 1 embarrassment, the Boston Celtics once again rattled off 4 straight victories to advance to the next round. The Celtics were led by Joel Embiid, who absolutely dominated the series against the Nets (including a 43 point, 18/23 shooting game) and is now averaging 24/10 on 51% shooting for the playoffs. The Celtics did show some weak spots, however, particularly on the defensive end, as the Nets were able to score at will and keep every game competitive. The offense outside of Embiid and LeBron has also stagnated, with only 1 game from any other player on the entire roster (Jamal Murray - 22 points in game 4) scoring above 20 points. Boston will have to find some other contributors if they hope to make it past Charlotte.
As for the Hornets, we thought they were walking into a brawl against Milwakuee and we were not disappointed, with a back-and-forth 7 game series where the road team won every game. Charlotte continues to be led by their dynamic duo of Russell Westbrook (21/8 on 50% shooting) and Paul George (24/10 on 46% shooting), with Middleton and Ingram picking up the slack where needed. Perhaps most impressive in the series was the Hornets defense, holding Round 1 hot hand Bradley Beal (29.0 ppg) to just 19 ppg on the series. If there is a weak spot for the Hornets, we haven't seen it yet, as the Hornets have been firing on all cylinders on both ends of the court.
This series pits the top 2 rated lineups in D5 against each other, with 4 players rated in the 90s participating in the series. The Celtics will hope to continue to have big games from Joel Embiid and LeBron James, but Boston will need a third player to step up in order to hope to advance. The roleplayers for Charlotte (Middleton, Ingram) are much more offensive-minded than the Celtics roleplayers (Simmons, Brown), who are only averaging a combined 22 ppg in the playoffs. This will be the first series where the Celtics face off against a team with similar ratings power, and I think the team build of Boston will finally succumb to a Hornets team that was assembled with more purpose.
Prediction: Competitive Hornets win
1. Sacramento Kings
8-3, +8.2 differential, 47.1% FG, 423 lineup rating
2. Denver Nuggets
8-3, +12.3 differential, 47.5% FG, 434 lineup rating
Similar to the Celtics, the Kings dropped game 1 before relatively smooth sailing into 4 straight victories. The success of Sacramento seems to rest on the shoulders of DeMar DeRozan, who is averaging 21/8/6 on 55% shooting in the playoffs. The defense of the Kings was exposed a bit against Portland, as Jonas Valanciunas put up 21 ppg himself with relative ease against the Kings' frontcourt. It is no secret that Sacramento has had the easiest path to the conference finals, with the their first two opponents have a combined record of just 81-83. Sacramento will need DeRozan to continue to shine, and perhaps better contributions from JJ Redick and Andre Drummond if they want to make it past an elite Nuggets team.
Denver's series against a depleted Memphis team had a little flair, with the Grizzlies threatening to climb out of a 3-0 deficit, but eventually was wrapped up with relative ease for the Nuggets. Perhaps the biggest storyline of the entire playoffs is the contributions that Denver is getting from players not named James Harden. The Nuggets' best player has been Pascal Siakam, who is averaging 27/7 on 57% shooting. Also contributing heavily is Tobias Harris, who is putting up 22 ppg on an unheard-of 61% shooting. Vucevic is even adding 16 ppg on 51% shooting. Can this team be stopped? It seems like the only person standing in Denver's way of another finals appearance is James Harden, who is shooting just 36% from the floor and taking 23 shots per game.
This is a revenge series for some of the Kings players, as Aldridge and CP3 were both discarded recently for younger, shinier players by the Nuggets. This is also going to be the first real test for 1-seeded Sacramento, who have thus far only faced teams that would not have even made the playoffs in the East. Stocked with a higher rated lineup, an MVP caliber player, and an powerful plethora of roleplayers, I expect this Nuggets team to put the Kings down in a similar fashion to the Grizzlies. Any hope for Sacramento is going to require monster games from DeMar DeRozan, but that hope does not seem sustainable over a 7 game series.
Prediction: Semi-competitive Nuggets win