2020 D5 Mock Draft - 60 Picks!
May 17, 2020 17:13:51 GMT
Ian Noble, Walt Frazier, and 16 more like this
Post by George Gervin on May 17, 2020 17:13:51 GMT
That's right my fellow GMs and AGMs, a compilation I've been working on over the course of the last 20 games of the season as the standings came into clearer focus is complete! This isn't your half-ass, just the selections only mock-- each team has a breakdown for their 1st round selections (or in the case of the Nets, Pacers, and Clippers, their first selection in Round 2 in lieu of 1st round picks they don't have), and it's reflective of final season standings and current pick ownership to date.
Some interesting facts on this mock as it stands:
As you read this, if you hate a pick...guess what, it's a mock. I'm not gonna be Chad Ford here and retroactively change my mocks after the drafts to make it look like I'm Nostradamus with selections, but I did genuinely consider team needs and BPA going through this.
Without further adieu, here's the mock:
Round 1:
1. Detroit Pistons (via Clippers): Anthony Edwards (SG), University of Georgia. Chauncey Billups and the Pistons, despite moving their own 1st round pick, secure top odds along with Utah and Miami. Their need is still clear for an elite wing scorer to add to their young trio of Sabonis, Ayton, and White, which Edwards should fit the bill. There is no prospect in this draft that combines his age, athletic prowess and powerful build, and potential; for all those reasons, he makes the most sense as a Number 1 overall selection in a murky draft class.
2. Miami Heat (via Pistons): James Wiseman (C), University of Memphis. All the player movement and positioning by the Heat and Shaquille O'Neal has left them tied with Detroit and Utah for top odds for the 1st pick. In this scenario, they land the second pick, and have a decision to make. With a clear eye towards OSFA, do they take a player with flash in Ball, but with well-publicized off-court baggage (LaVar, anyone?), to draw in a FA looking for playmaking? Or do they go for a greater positional need in Wiseman, who can step in Day 1 upfront and at the very least should be the kind of defensive and rebounding anchor needed in today’s NBA.
3. Utah Jazz: Onyeka Okongwu (PF), University of Southern California. In a late season GM swap, out goes former GM Elton Brand and in comes Tim Duncan , the former Assistant GM of the Spurs. With a roster full of young talent at multiple positions, the Jazz could go a number of directions. Their new GM could decide that the last two top 10 selections by the Jazz – Colin Sexton and Jarrett Culver – won’t cut it, and new backcourt blood is needed in LaMelo Ball or Killian Hayes. Or they could go for the best big left after Wiseman in Okongwu, who at the very least serves as a hedge (and replacement) for either Zach Collins or Marvin Bagley if their injuries persist.
4. Los Angeles Lakers: Killian Hayes (PG), France. Mark Price and the Lakers finish at #4 with their own pick (more on the others later), and their roster at the moment does not feature a ton of young talent you’d feel confident in. One could argue their best player under 25 is one they acquired this season (Dillon Brooks), as Kevin Porter Jr. showed flashes but still is a ways away, and Zhaire Smith needs bubble wrap to stay healthy. They opt for the American by way of France and Germany PG in Killian Hayes, who may end up being the best player from this draft when it’s all said and done. He’s got the stepbacks, hesitations, and offensive creativity as a playmaker to be a PG in today’s NBA. He is still 18, though, so patience will be key, but for the Lakers, this is the kind of player to roll the dice on. Plus, I’d think the Lakers would want to avoid another Ball experiment in the lottery (especially with OSFA on the horizon and intentions clear they want “in” on the max types).
5. Oklahoma City Thunder: LaMelo Ball (PG), Illawara Hawks (NBL - Australia). Kevin Hollis and the Thunder fail to land top odds after spending much of the season mired in the bottom three of the overall standings. Whether it was sabotage by the Heat with Stockwatches late, or random wins at the worst time, the Thunder still walk away with a player considered a consensus top 4 prospect. Ball has lots of style, but his substance still is a question mark: is he a playmaking guard like his brother, or is he a scorer who can create very well in the Russell Westbrook/Steve Francis mold? Regardless of his outcome, he’s worlds better than the Thunder’s current backcourt options, and offers tremendous upside to bet on at #5.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves: Obi Toppin (PF), Dayton University. At #6, we have Walt Frazier and the Timberwolves, who managed to lose enough down the stretch to beat out the Pelicans for this spot. Outside of Golden State, no team was ravaged more by injuries to their stars—John Wall did not play at all, whereas Blake Griffin and Clint Capela went down quickly. With Griffin up for free agency and sporting an injury list a mile long, the Timberwolves go for the ready-made PF who can step in to play immediately in Obi Toppin. The best way to describe Toppin is a human pogo stick: the man can get off the floor in a hurry, and offensively is a dynamo. Defensively he is awkwardly stuck between being too short to defend centers, but with realistically too high center of gravity and too heavy footed to keep forwards in front of him. He is arguably the most ready player in this draft, and he’s a worthwhile pick at #6 for the Timberwolves as insurance for Griffin.
7. New Orleans Pelicans: Tyrese Haliburton (PG), Iowa State University. Brian Scalabrine and the Pelicans check in at #7. The Timberwolves ended up passing them in the standings, but their selection remains the same from previous mock selections in Haliburton. Haliburton checks many boxes both analytically and raw stats wise at the PG position, and as a big PG (6’5”, 7’0” wingspan) he could feasibly play next to Trae Young in multi-PG settings. He’s a pretty safe bet to be a productive player, and for the Pelicans, he’s a solid selection in this draft full of question marks.
8. Washington Wizards: Deni Avdija (SF/PF), Maccabi Tel Aviv (Israel). Moving up in the lottery--albeit not from activity but pure poor healthy roster talent outside of Bam and DLo -- are the Wizards and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar . This is another team that is a lottery staple with a change in player selection, as Avdija is moving up the board here to the Wizards. This is less to do with Avdija being a better fit here (his shooting probably doesn't fit with Isaac) and more to do with RJ Hampton this high would be a mistake based on his play. Avdija would fill, perhaps, the SF role long-term for the Wizards, but at this stage in the draft, some of these picks could become shots in the dark.
9. Phoenix Suns: Isaac Okoro (SF), University of Auburn. Jared Montini and the Suns, like the Heat and TWolves, did some recent purging and have gone all-in on bottoming out to increase their odds. They finished the season at #9—probably not as high as they’d like, but they do have two lottery selections in their own pick plus Cleveland’s. At #9 they grab Okoro, who slides a bit from previous mock draft iterations but would be snatched in a heartbeat this low. He should immediately be the Suns best defender, and he’s someone who has been a winner at every level in basketball that’d be a welcome addition to the Suns roster.
10. New York Knicks: Cole Anthony (PG), UNC. Billy King tried to suck, and was so bad at it that teams passed him (Timberwolves, Suns) and kept him stranded at #10 for each mock. Their mock still has a PG -- one who should be a fan favorite in Greg Anthony's son and local NYC product Cole Anthony -- to usher the Rubio era to a close, but the Knicks probably hope for lottery favor and a jump up in the lottery with a shot at one of the elite prospects. At the very least Anthony can sell tickets and drum up fan interest.
11. Toronto Raptors: Isaiah Stewart (PF/C), University of Washington. Landing at #11 are the Raptors and Bryan Colangelo . Their biggest trade since the last mock was with Phoenix, as they added Norman Powell and lots of salary, effectively removing them from the 2020 OSFA max contract bonanza. Their selection has shifted to a different big – one who had a tremendous freshman year at Washington, and on the strength of his age (still 18), production, and strong character, is rocketing up draft boards – in Isaiah Stewart. Stewart figures to be a player who just figures it out despite his limitations, as he’s got the best hands of any big in this class and plays within himself. For the Raptors, he could be a long-term answer at center to go with their young wings and guards.
12. Phoenix Suns (via Cavaliers): Tyrese Maxey (SG), University of Kentucky. Sporting now the #9 and #12 picks are Jared Montini and the Suns. Hanamichi Sakuragi and the Cavs have been trying all season in vain to make the playoffs in the stacked Eastern Conference, but were unable to make that push a reality. The Suns selection remains unchanged from previous mock draft iterations for their second pick in Maxey, who figures to offer stability as a combo guard off the bench at minimum and perhaps a starter down the road.
13. Los Angeles Lakers (via Pacers): Devin Vassell (SG), Florida State University. At #13 we have Mark Price and the Lakers again, who have this pick from the Dinwiddie trade early on in the season. At #4, they drafted the PG of the future in Hayes who figures to offer playmaking and scoring. At #13, they take a fast rising prospect in Vassell, who has 3 and D tattooed on his forehead. He is one of the best team defenders in this draft, and with his size (6'7", 195 lbs), length (6'9" wingspan) and all around play (averaged at 12.7 PPG with 5.1 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.0 BPG, and 1.4 SPG on 49/42/74 splits), he should be able to provide early minutes and not be fazed by the challenge.
14. Miami Heat: Saddiq Bey (SF), Villanova University. With the last lottery selection, the Heat and Shaquille O'Neal select another high rising prospect in Bey. As a prospect, he's a lights out shooter (48% FG, 45% from 3 on 5.5 attempts per game) and a very good defender to the point that Nova built their defense around his team defense skills this past season. He's also a player coming from a program that has churned out good NBA players in the last few seasons (DiVincenzo, Brunson, Hart, Paschall), and Bey figures to be the next in line to make an impact. He should be able to step in and be a strong bench player to start, and may even push for a starting role next season depending on how OSFA shakes out for Miami’s projected $72 MM in cap space.
15. Golden State Warriors: Aleksej Pokusevski (PF), Serbia. With four picks in Round 1, the Warriors and Chris Mullin can afford to take swings on upside and fill out their bench at multiple positions. Pokusevski is the draft’s mystery man—if you scour the basketball message boards and YouTube for highlights, they look like they were shot on a VHS titled “Next Dirk??”, but don’t be fooled – Pokusevski may have the highest ceiling of any player, even that of high lottery guys. Players this big (7’0”) with the kind of fluidity and passing skill he possesses are incredibly rare. He’s also the draft’s youngest player, as he won’t be 19 till the last week in December. For the Warriors, who sport multiple 1st round picks, this is a moonshot selection that could be an incredible long-term pick that doesn’t hurt their overall hunt for cheap bench depth.
16. San Antonio Spurs: Aaron Nesmith (SF), Vanderbilt University. The Spurs and George Gervin have just one selection this draft, after making eight over the last two drafts. In the mid-round, they roll the dice on the draft’s premier shooter, Aaron Nesmith. Prior to a season-ending injury, Nesmith was shooting an eye-opening 52% from 3 PT range to go with 51% FG and 83% FT. Defensively he has a ways to go, but there isn’t a better shooter in the draft than Nesmith. He should be able to add to the Spurs bench as a sniper on the wings, and provide even more floor spacing for Doncic and SGA to operate.
17. Portland Trailblazers (via Rockets): Tyler Bey (SF), University of Colorado. The Trailblazers and Jerry West swung a late season deal to acquire their first rounder back, and with one young defender in Terrence Davis on the wings, they add another in Tyler Bey. At Colorado, Bey played PF and was a tenacious rebounder to go with his defensive instincts. At 6’7”, though, he’s probably best suited for SF in the NBA, and as one of the more seasoned (three year player) and older (22) prospects, he should be able to contribute immediately to the Blazers.
18. Portland Trailblazers: Theo Maledon (PG), France. With their second pick in Round 1, Jerry West and the Blazers roll the dice on the “other” French PG in this draft, Theo Maledon. With Kyle Lowry getting long in the tooth, and no heir apparent on the roster as a floor general, Maledon could serve as a useful understudy before taking over. Maledon has been compared to a bargain version of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, as he gets by on his craft, basketball IQ, and length as opposed to athleticism. His shooting still needs some tweaking, and his defensive positioning could use work, but he has basketball maturity and understanding that is beyond his years, and he could end up being a player that does better than many drafted in front of him.
19. New Orleans Pelicans (via Mavericks): Tyrell Terry (PG), Stanford University. Brian Scalabrine and the Pelicans, with nine draft selections, have the luxury to go for BPA as opposed to fit. This may seem high for Terry, but when you look into his play and numbers, his impact might portend a player who should go higher. A lithe player at 6’2”, 165 lbs, he doesn’t have a lot of favorable historical success points in NBA history. However, Terry has Trae Young-lite shooting range, with a lightning quick release, elite shooting percentages (45/41/89 splits), and surprising rebound rate (4.5 RPG) for such a small player. Like Young, though, Terry is a defensive turnstile, and likely will always be a liability on that end. For the Pelicans, he can be another sniper in the backcourt to ensure regardless if Young is on the floor or not, his shooting gravity is always felt.
20. Los Angeles Lakers (via Bulls): Jalen Smith (PF), University of Maryland. With their first two picks in the lottery, Mark Price and the Lakers shored up their backcourt. To kick off the back ten picks of Round 1, the Lakers go for a big that had an explosive sophomore campaign for the Terps. From his freshman year to his sophomore year, Smith improved in every statistical category, and even began to show real shooting potential from distance (37% from 3 PT) to go with averaging a double-double and 2.4 BPG. His advanced stats are all very favorable as well, with the big knock on Smith being his tunnel vision when he has the ball and inactive hands on defense when he’s not going for the block. For the Lakers, he’s a solid gamble late to be a productive rotation player.
21. Milwaukee Bucks (via Hawks): Patrick Williams (PF), Florida State University. Glenn Robinson and the Bucks, having this selection from the Lauri Markkenen trade last draft, go for an intriguing combo forward in Patrick Williams. Statistically speaking, Williams doesn’t have eye opening stat lines, and more often than not, he posted mostly single digit lines. However, he is one of this draft’s youngest players, and as an archetype, he fits the new age mold of a floor spacing, defensive forward. For the Bucks, he could be a good long term investment to develop. At worst, he’s a rotation big that can offer quality minutes. At best, he could be a sneaky underrated starter that is the ultimate glue forward.
22. Orlando Magic: Precious Achiuwa (PF), University of Memphis. The biggest standings riser since the ASB has been the Magic, who went scorched Earth after hiring Steve Nash as GM and rose from the early lottery in the initial mock draft all the way to back third of Round 1. They have paraded a rotation of players at the PF spot this season – starting with Paul Millsap, followed by Derrick Favors and now trying Otto Porter as a floor spacing 4. Achiuwa isn’t going to do a ton offensively; he tends to have the “bull in a China shop” approach when he gets the ball in the halfcourt, and it’s not clear he possesses the basketball IQ on offense to be anything more than a player who finishes based on hustle, energy, and creation by others. What he is, though, is one of the drafts premier defenders, and as an athletic freak who can defend, he could tandem with Rudy Gobert to give the Magic D5’s stingiest interior defense.
23. Philadelphia 76ers: Nico Mannion (PG), University of Arizona. The 76ers and Allen Iverson had a huge rise in the standings from the last few drafts, where they were selecting in the mid lottery, and this draft they’re in the back third of selections. They may have what seems to be five million guards on their roster, but this far down, Mannion is too good of value to pass up. He doesn’t come without risks, given his physical limitations, defensive shortcomings, and questions about whether he is starter material, but as a floor general, he has few peers in this draft class. He understands how to set up and run an offense, and at minimum he’s a good long term pick for the 76ers as they decide what to do with their guard contingent in the future.
24. Memphis Grizzlies: Paul Reed (PF), DePaul University. The Grizzlies and Jeremiah Hill went for broke this season, as they dealt two young players and two future picks for Bojan Bogandovic to add to their existing star trio of Mitchell, Jokic, and KAT. With few selections in coming seasons, and a successful team leading to picks further down the board, getting the pick right is paramount. To that end, Paul Reed is a sleeper who could be the late round gem of this draft in the Siakim/Green/Hart/Kuzma mold. For DePaul, he was a defensive menace, as he is one of the few players in the last decade (along with Nerlens Noel and Matisse Thybulle) to average at least 2.5 BPG and 2.0 SPG. Unlike those two, though, Reed can score, as he averaged 15 PPG and 10.7 RPG to go with his defensive stats. His one big issue is shooting, as his stroke is inconsistent and likely needs a complete rework before defenses will cover him in the NBA from beyond the paint. However, this far down, he has a single elite skill (defense) that should earn him minutes, and he could grow into a sneaky good two-way player in time.
25. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Nets): Kira Lewis (PG), University of Alabama. The Cavaliers and Hanamichi Sakuragi tried their best to make the playoffs and avoid giving the Suns a lottery selection. Alas, they were unsuccessful, but not without a first round pick this year. At #25, they take a long term successor to Mike Conley at PG. Enter Kira Lewis, who defensively was a solid player for Alabama and offensively got to the rim at will. Lewis is a younger sophomore at 19, but having played under an NBA coach in Avery Johnson, he improved and matured as a player to the point that he should carve out a long career in the NBA. He also, statistically speaking, was far better than other PGs in the class of the same age—particularly the higher pedigree Anthony and Mannion at UNC and Arizona respectively. For the Cavs, he’d be a nice bench player that ensures at least one roster spot is locked up long-term on a cheap rate, and if he continues to ascend, he could be a really nice find this far down.
26. Denver Nuggets: Leandro Bolmaro (SG), Argentina. At #26 we have Alex English and the Nuggets, who seem to end up snagging some draft steal at least once a year, and this year is no different. Bolmaro currently plays for FC Barcelona in Spain, and while he does have some issues (shooting percentages are not good, very turnover and foul prone, doesn’t show a lot of verticality), he shows a veteran craft to his game that belies his age. His steals and assist rate in just 17 MPG are off the charts, and he makes a lot of smart basketball plays. He’s the kind of player winning teams want, and at just 19, he still has lots of time to grow and iron out his deficiencies.
27. Golden State Warriors (via Hornets): Josh Green (SG), University of Arizona. With their second of four selections, Chris Mullin and the Warriors continue to add to their backcourt with Josh Green. An athletic freak, Green will probably earn his early reps from his activity on defense, ability to run the floor, and hustle. Offensively, he lacks structure, as his shot selection could be better, and his efficiency on that end in the half-court leaves a lot to be desired. Like Pokusevki though, Green could be brought along slowly and be a low cost, high value bench option for the Warriors down the road.
28. Golden State Warriors (via Kings): Grant Riller (PG), College of Charleston. With their first two selections this round, Chris Mullin and the Warriors went moonshot at #15 for their frontcourt and followed that up with a smaller swing at #27 for their wing. At #28, they go the opposite direction, taking arguably the draft’s most easily projectable three level scorer at guard in Grant Riller. What he makes up for by playing at a small school is ridiculous production—over 132 career games, he averaged 18.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.8 APG, and 1.3 SPG, with 59/36/80 shooting splits. Beyond the raw numbers is an efficiency machine – particularly offensively – and a player who should make an immediate impact, regardless of the amount of minutes. For the Warriors, he’s a player who could be a really good bench PG that, at 23, will be able to step in immediately and contribute to a contending team.
29. Boston Celtics: Devon Dotson (PG), University of Kansas. At #29 we have Ian Noble and the Boston Celtics, who after making the season’s biggest name trade in acquiring LeBron James for Brandon Ingram, Trez Harrell, Jabari Parker, and some prospects, they sit in the “win-now” mode—especially with contract extensions coming for draftees in 2021. Enter Devon Dotson, Kansas’s ball of fury PG who defensively was one of college basketball’s best on ball defenders regardless of position. While there are huge question marks on Dotson’s ability to score given his size, he’s got tremendous character and has been in pressure cooker environments playing for a premier program in Kansas. At the very least, he’s a reliable backup for Boston who can assure they have at least one cheap contract on what will become a very expensive roster in a years’ time.
30. Golden State Warriors (via Bucks): Xavier Tillman (C), Michigan State University. With the last of their four selections – and the last pick in the first round – Chris Mullin and the Warriors go frontcourt again. This time, they take Xavier Tillman, who if you put his stats side by side with Draymond Green’s at MSU, they look eerily similar. Like Green, Tillman has a knack for passing (3.0 APG) to go with stat stuffing on all fronts. From scoring (13.7 PPG), rebounding (10.3 RPG), steals (1.2 SPG), and blocks (2.1 BPG), Tillman can do it all, and he is the classic prospect who would be overlooked because of one major flaw: lack of athleticism. Tillman’s impact comes much more from his basketball IQ and timing than it does elite athletic traits, and as a smaller center (6’8”, 245 lbs), he could get snuffed out by the athletic monsters upfront in the NBA. With his skillset, though, it’s hard to believe he won’t be, at worse, a rotation big who in the right system (Houston Rockets, anyone?) could be an absolute force. The Dubs will gladly scoop him up at the end of Round 1 to add to their bench haul.
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Round 2:
32. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Pistons): Zeke Nnaji (C), University of Arizona.
33. New Orleans Pelicans (via Jazz): Amar Sylla (PF), Senegal.
34. New Orleans Pelicans (via Lakers): Killian Tillie (PF), Gonzaga University.
35. Los Angeles Clippers (via Thunder): Reggie Perry (PF), Mississippi State University. The Clippers and Mike Krzyzewski are watching again as their own lottery pick is conveyed to another team again, but with three picks in the first 12 of Round 2, it’s not all doom and gloom. At #35 they snag Reggie Perry, a prospect who could easily rise up the boards with his huge size (6’10”, 250 lbs) at the 4 and his sneaky underrated playmaking ability at the position. Perry is a bit stuck defensively, as he’s got the size of a center but is more suited to play power forward despite slow feet, but for the Clippers, he’s talent, which is what they need to start adding around RJ Barrett.
36. Minnesota Timberwolves: Cassius Stanley (SG), Duke University.
37. New Orleans Pelicans: Malachi Flynn (PG), San Diego State University.
38. Indiana Pacers (via Wizards): Tre Jones (PG), Duke University
Poor Larry Bird -- he's been on the wrong end of a PG trade dealing a lottery pick to get them in two of the last three years now. With their first in the hands of the Lakers, the Pacers don't make a selection until deep in the draft. At this stage, they grab a developmental PG in Tre Jones. While he's likely not as good as his brother Tyus, he's still a solid PG who comes with similar strengths (basketball IQ, passing, all around effort) and same deficiencies (he's a worse shooter than his brother). For the Pacers, though, with lots of players hitting FA-- including Fred Van Vleet, who figures to be an attractive candidate for many teams -- adding a quality bench guy at a position of need isn't the worst thing in the world.
39. Los Angeles Clippers (via Suns): Desmond Bane (SG), Texas Christian University.
40. New York Knicks: Jordan Nwora (SF), University of Louisville.
41. Golden State Warriors: Tres Tinkle (SF), Oregon State University
42. New Orleans Pelicans (via Raptors): Ashton Haggans (PG), University of Kentucky.
43. Los Angeles Clippers (via Spurs): Daniel Oturu (C), University of Minnesota
44. New York Knicks (via Cavaliers): Isaiah Joe (SG), University of Arkansas.
45. Dallas Mavericks (via Pacers): Robert Woodard II (SF), Mississippi State University.
46. Miami Heat: Joel Ayayi (PG), Gonzaga University.
47. Brooklyn Nets (via Trailblazers): Cassius Winston (PG), Michigan State University. Andrei Kirilenko and the wheeler-dealer Nets are without their first round pick again, though that hasn’t stopped them from accumulating an envious roster of talent that is all 27 or younger. With no real starting needs, the Nets can go BPA, most ready at this spot in Round 2, and in this iteration they snag Winston from MSU. The heart and soul of this team – and a Coach Izzo favorite – Winston has a lot of offensive talent, and is a savvy player. He should have no problem contributing offensively in the NBA. The biggest issues with Winston are his size (maybe 6’1”, 180 lbs) and defense (routinely got torched throughout his four years). He’s a player you’d hope isn’t a starter, as it’s basically 4 v 5 on the defensive end, but for the Nets, he’s a nice offensive option and could injury insurance in the event the mercurial Irving goes down again and Derrick Rose walks this offseason.
48. Los Angeles Lakers (via Rockets): Trendon Watford (SF), Louisiana State University.
49. Golden State Warriors (via Mavericks): Borisa Simanic (PF), Serbia.
50. New Orleans Pelicans (via Bulls): Paul Eboua (PF), Cameroon
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51. Phoenix Suns (via Hawks): Jay Scrubb (SG), John A. Logan CC.
52. Orlando Magic: Neemias Queta (C), Utah State University.
53. Indiana Pacers (via 76ers): Trevelin Queen (SG), New Mexico State University.
54. Toronto Raptors (via Grizzlies): Charles Bassey (C), University of Western Kentucky.
55. Dallas Mavericks (via Nets): Jared Butler (PG), Baylor University.
56. Indiana Pacers (via Nuggets): Makur Maker (PF), Australia.
57. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Hornets): Malcolm Cazalon (SG), France.
58. Miami Heat (via Kings): Corey Kispert (SF), Gonzaga University.
59. Milwaukee Bucks: Markus Howard (PG), Marquette University
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60. New Orleans Pelicans (via Celtics): Ayo Dosunmu (SG), University of Illinois.
Some interesting facts on this mock as it stands:
- Brian Scalabrine and Chris Mullin control one quarter (you read that right) of all selections between the two of them. GSW has 6 (including four in Round 1), and NOP has a whopping 9 picks.
- Mark Price and Jared Montini control nearly a third of the lottery with two selections each (4 and 13 followed by 8 and 12 respectively)
- Steve Nash and the Magic made the biggest rise from the first mock draft iteration I did back in February, going from #4 in that mock to #22
As you read this, if you hate a pick...guess what, it's a mock. I'm not gonna be Chad Ford here and retroactively change my mocks after the drafts to make it look like I'm Nostradamus with selections, but I did genuinely consider team needs and BPA going through this.
Without further adieu, here's the mock:
Round 1:
2. Miami Heat (via Pistons): James Wiseman (C), University of Memphis. All the player movement and positioning by the Heat and Shaquille O'Neal has left them tied with Detroit and Utah for top odds for the 1st pick. In this scenario, they land the second pick, and have a decision to make. With a clear eye towards OSFA, do they take a player with flash in Ball, but with well-publicized off-court baggage (LaVar, anyone?), to draw in a FA looking for playmaking? Or do they go for a greater positional need in Wiseman, who can step in Day 1 upfront and at the very least should be the kind of defensive and rebounding anchor needed in today’s NBA.
3. Utah Jazz: Onyeka Okongwu (PF), University of Southern California. In a late season GM swap, out goes former GM Elton Brand and in comes Tim Duncan , the former Assistant GM of the Spurs. With a roster full of young talent at multiple positions, the Jazz could go a number of directions. Their new GM could decide that the last two top 10 selections by the Jazz – Colin Sexton and Jarrett Culver – won’t cut it, and new backcourt blood is needed in LaMelo Ball or Killian Hayes. Or they could go for the best big left after Wiseman in Okongwu, who at the very least serves as a hedge (and replacement) for either Zach Collins or Marvin Bagley if their injuries persist.
4. Los Angeles Lakers: Killian Hayes (PG), France. Mark Price and the Lakers finish at #4 with their own pick (more on the others later), and their roster at the moment does not feature a ton of young talent you’d feel confident in. One could argue their best player under 25 is one they acquired this season (Dillon Brooks), as Kevin Porter Jr. showed flashes but still is a ways away, and Zhaire Smith needs bubble wrap to stay healthy. They opt for the American by way of France and Germany PG in Killian Hayes, who may end up being the best player from this draft when it’s all said and done. He’s got the stepbacks, hesitations, and offensive creativity as a playmaker to be a PG in today’s NBA. He is still 18, though, so patience will be key, but for the Lakers, this is the kind of player to roll the dice on. Plus, I’d think the Lakers would want to avoid another Ball experiment in the lottery (especially with OSFA on the horizon and intentions clear they want “in” on the max types).
5. Oklahoma City Thunder: LaMelo Ball (PG), Illawara Hawks (NBL - Australia). Kevin Hollis and the Thunder fail to land top odds after spending much of the season mired in the bottom three of the overall standings. Whether it was sabotage by the Heat with Stockwatches late, or random wins at the worst time, the Thunder still walk away with a player considered a consensus top 4 prospect. Ball has lots of style, but his substance still is a question mark: is he a playmaking guard like his brother, or is he a scorer who can create very well in the Russell Westbrook/Steve Francis mold? Regardless of his outcome, he’s worlds better than the Thunder’s current backcourt options, and offers tremendous upside to bet on at #5.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves: Obi Toppin (PF), Dayton University. At #6, we have Walt Frazier and the Timberwolves, who managed to lose enough down the stretch to beat out the Pelicans for this spot. Outside of Golden State, no team was ravaged more by injuries to their stars—John Wall did not play at all, whereas Blake Griffin and Clint Capela went down quickly. With Griffin up for free agency and sporting an injury list a mile long, the Timberwolves go for the ready-made PF who can step in to play immediately in Obi Toppin. The best way to describe Toppin is a human pogo stick: the man can get off the floor in a hurry, and offensively is a dynamo. Defensively he is awkwardly stuck between being too short to defend centers, but with realistically too high center of gravity and too heavy footed to keep forwards in front of him. He is arguably the most ready player in this draft, and he’s a worthwhile pick at #6 for the Timberwolves as insurance for Griffin.
7. New Orleans Pelicans: Tyrese Haliburton (PG), Iowa State University. Brian Scalabrine and the Pelicans check in at #7. The Timberwolves ended up passing them in the standings, but their selection remains the same from previous mock selections in Haliburton. Haliburton checks many boxes both analytically and raw stats wise at the PG position, and as a big PG (6’5”, 7’0” wingspan) he could feasibly play next to Trae Young in multi-PG settings. He’s a pretty safe bet to be a productive player, and for the Pelicans, he’s a solid selection in this draft full of question marks.
8. Washington Wizards: Deni Avdija (SF/PF), Maccabi Tel Aviv (Israel). Moving up in the lottery--albeit not from activity but pure poor healthy roster talent outside of Bam and DLo -- are the Wizards and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar . This is another team that is a lottery staple with a change in player selection, as Avdija is moving up the board here to the Wizards. This is less to do with Avdija being a better fit here (his shooting probably doesn't fit with Isaac) and more to do with RJ Hampton this high would be a mistake based on his play. Avdija would fill, perhaps, the SF role long-term for the Wizards, but at this stage in the draft, some of these picks could become shots in the dark.
9. Phoenix Suns: Isaac Okoro (SF), University of Auburn. Jared Montini and the Suns, like the Heat and TWolves, did some recent purging and have gone all-in on bottoming out to increase their odds. They finished the season at #9—probably not as high as they’d like, but they do have two lottery selections in their own pick plus Cleveland’s. At #9 they grab Okoro, who slides a bit from previous mock draft iterations but would be snatched in a heartbeat this low. He should immediately be the Suns best defender, and he’s someone who has been a winner at every level in basketball that’d be a welcome addition to the Suns roster.
10. New York Knicks: Cole Anthony (PG), UNC. Billy King tried to suck, and was so bad at it that teams passed him (Timberwolves, Suns) and kept him stranded at #10 for each mock. Their mock still has a PG -- one who should be a fan favorite in Greg Anthony's son and local NYC product Cole Anthony -- to usher the Rubio era to a close, but the Knicks probably hope for lottery favor and a jump up in the lottery with a shot at one of the elite prospects. At the very least Anthony can sell tickets and drum up fan interest.
11. Toronto Raptors: Isaiah Stewart (PF/C), University of Washington. Landing at #11 are the Raptors and Bryan Colangelo . Their biggest trade since the last mock was with Phoenix, as they added Norman Powell and lots of salary, effectively removing them from the 2020 OSFA max contract bonanza. Their selection has shifted to a different big – one who had a tremendous freshman year at Washington, and on the strength of his age (still 18), production, and strong character, is rocketing up draft boards – in Isaiah Stewart. Stewart figures to be a player who just figures it out despite his limitations, as he’s got the best hands of any big in this class and plays within himself. For the Raptors, he could be a long-term answer at center to go with their young wings and guards.
12. Phoenix Suns (via Cavaliers): Tyrese Maxey (SG), University of Kentucky. Sporting now the #9 and #12 picks are Jared Montini and the Suns. Hanamichi Sakuragi and the Cavs have been trying all season in vain to make the playoffs in the stacked Eastern Conference, but were unable to make that push a reality. The Suns selection remains unchanged from previous mock draft iterations for their second pick in Maxey, who figures to offer stability as a combo guard off the bench at minimum and perhaps a starter down the road.
13. Los Angeles Lakers (via Pacers): Devin Vassell (SG), Florida State University. At #13 we have Mark Price and the Lakers again, who have this pick from the Dinwiddie trade early on in the season. At #4, they drafted the PG of the future in Hayes who figures to offer playmaking and scoring. At #13, they take a fast rising prospect in Vassell, who has 3 and D tattooed on his forehead. He is one of the best team defenders in this draft, and with his size (6'7", 195 lbs), length (6'9" wingspan) and all around play (averaged at 12.7 PPG with 5.1 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.0 BPG, and 1.4 SPG on 49/42/74 splits), he should be able to provide early minutes and not be fazed by the challenge.
14. Miami Heat: Saddiq Bey (SF), Villanova University. With the last lottery selection, the Heat and Shaquille O'Neal select another high rising prospect in Bey. As a prospect, he's a lights out shooter (48% FG, 45% from 3 on 5.5 attempts per game) and a very good defender to the point that Nova built their defense around his team defense skills this past season. He's also a player coming from a program that has churned out good NBA players in the last few seasons (DiVincenzo, Brunson, Hart, Paschall), and Bey figures to be the next in line to make an impact. He should be able to step in and be a strong bench player to start, and may even push for a starting role next season depending on how OSFA shakes out for Miami’s projected $72 MM in cap space.
15. Golden State Warriors: Aleksej Pokusevski (PF), Serbia. With four picks in Round 1, the Warriors and Chris Mullin can afford to take swings on upside and fill out their bench at multiple positions. Pokusevski is the draft’s mystery man—if you scour the basketball message boards and YouTube for highlights, they look like they were shot on a VHS titled “Next Dirk??”, but don’t be fooled – Pokusevski may have the highest ceiling of any player, even that of high lottery guys. Players this big (7’0”) with the kind of fluidity and passing skill he possesses are incredibly rare. He’s also the draft’s youngest player, as he won’t be 19 till the last week in December. For the Warriors, who sport multiple 1st round picks, this is a moonshot selection that could be an incredible long-term pick that doesn’t hurt their overall hunt for cheap bench depth.
16. San Antonio Spurs: Aaron Nesmith (SF), Vanderbilt University. The Spurs and George Gervin have just one selection this draft, after making eight over the last two drafts. In the mid-round, they roll the dice on the draft’s premier shooter, Aaron Nesmith. Prior to a season-ending injury, Nesmith was shooting an eye-opening 52% from 3 PT range to go with 51% FG and 83% FT. Defensively he has a ways to go, but there isn’t a better shooter in the draft than Nesmith. He should be able to add to the Spurs bench as a sniper on the wings, and provide even more floor spacing for Doncic and SGA to operate.
17. Portland Trailblazers (via Rockets): Tyler Bey (SF), University of Colorado. The Trailblazers and Jerry West swung a late season deal to acquire their first rounder back, and with one young defender in Terrence Davis on the wings, they add another in Tyler Bey. At Colorado, Bey played PF and was a tenacious rebounder to go with his defensive instincts. At 6’7”, though, he’s probably best suited for SF in the NBA, and as one of the more seasoned (three year player) and older (22) prospects, he should be able to contribute immediately to the Blazers.
18. Portland Trailblazers: Theo Maledon (PG), France. With their second pick in Round 1, Jerry West and the Blazers roll the dice on the “other” French PG in this draft, Theo Maledon. With Kyle Lowry getting long in the tooth, and no heir apparent on the roster as a floor general, Maledon could serve as a useful understudy before taking over. Maledon has been compared to a bargain version of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, as he gets by on his craft, basketball IQ, and length as opposed to athleticism. His shooting still needs some tweaking, and his defensive positioning could use work, but he has basketball maturity and understanding that is beyond his years, and he could end up being a player that does better than many drafted in front of him.
19. New Orleans Pelicans (via Mavericks): Tyrell Terry (PG), Stanford University. Brian Scalabrine and the Pelicans, with nine draft selections, have the luxury to go for BPA as opposed to fit. This may seem high for Terry, but when you look into his play and numbers, his impact might portend a player who should go higher. A lithe player at 6’2”, 165 lbs, he doesn’t have a lot of favorable historical success points in NBA history. However, Terry has Trae Young-lite shooting range, with a lightning quick release, elite shooting percentages (45/41/89 splits), and surprising rebound rate (4.5 RPG) for such a small player. Like Young, though, Terry is a defensive turnstile, and likely will always be a liability on that end. For the Pelicans, he can be another sniper in the backcourt to ensure regardless if Young is on the floor or not, his shooting gravity is always felt.
20. Los Angeles Lakers (via Bulls): Jalen Smith (PF), University of Maryland. With their first two picks in the lottery, Mark Price and the Lakers shored up their backcourt. To kick off the back ten picks of Round 1, the Lakers go for a big that had an explosive sophomore campaign for the Terps. From his freshman year to his sophomore year, Smith improved in every statistical category, and even began to show real shooting potential from distance (37% from 3 PT) to go with averaging a double-double and 2.4 BPG. His advanced stats are all very favorable as well, with the big knock on Smith being his tunnel vision when he has the ball and inactive hands on defense when he’s not going for the block. For the Lakers, he’s a solid gamble late to be a productive rotation player.
21. Milwaukee Bucks (via Hawks): Patrick Williams (PF), Florida State University. Glenn Robinson and the Bucks, having this selection from the Lauri Markkenen trade last draft, go for an intriguing combo forward in Patrick Williams. Statistically speaking, Williams doesn’t have eye opening stat lines, and more often than not, he posted mostly single digit lines. However, he is one of this draft’s youngest players, and as an archetype, he fits the new age mold of a floor spacing, defensive forward. For the Bucks, he could be a good long term investment to develop. At worst, he’s a rotation big that can offer quality minutes. At best, he could be a sneaky underrated starter that is the ultimate glue forward.
22. Orlando Magic: Precious Achiuwa (PF), University of Memphis. The biggest standings riser since the ASB has been the Magic, who went scorched Earth after hiring Steve Nash as GM and rose from the early lottery in the initial mock draft all the way to back third of Round 1. They have paraded a rotation of players at the PF spot this season – starting with Paul Millsap, followed by Derrick Favors and now trying Otto Porter as a floor spacing 4. Achiuwa isn’t going to do a ton offensively; he tends to have the “bull in a China shop” approach when he gets the ball in the halfcourt, and it’s not clear he possesses the basketball IQ on offense to be anything more than a player who finishes based on hustle, energy, and creation by others. What he is, though, is one of the drafts premier defenders, and as an athletic freak who can defend, he could tandem with Rudy Gobert to give the Magic D5’s stingiest interior defense.
23. Philadelphia 76ers: Nico Mannion (PG), University of Arizona. The 76ers and Allen Iverson had a huge rise in the standings from the last few drafts, where they were selecting in the mid lottery, and this draft they’re in the back third of selections. They may have what seems to be five million guards on their roster, but this far down, Mannion is too good of value to pass up. He doesn’t come without risks, given his physical limitations, defensive shortcomings, and questions about whether he is starter material, but as a floor general, he has few peers in this draft class. He understands how to set up and run an offense, and at minimum he’s a good long term pick for the 76ers as they decide what to do with their guard contingent in the future.
24. Memphis Grizzlies: Paul Reed (PF), DePaul University. The Grizzlies and Jeremiah Hill went for broke this season, as they dealt two young players and two future picks for Bojan Bogandovic to add to their existing star trio of Mitchell, Jokic, and KAT. With few selections in coming seasons, and a successful team leading to picks further down the board, getting the pick right is paramount. To that end, Paul Reed is a sleeper who could be the late round gem of this draft in the Siakim/Green/Hart/Kuzma mold. For DePaul, he was a defensive menace, as he is one of the few players in the last decade (along with Nerlens Noel and Matisse Thybulle) to average at least 2.5 BPG and 2.0 SPG. Unlike those two, though, Reed can score, as he averaged 15 PPG and 10.7 RPG to go with his defensive stats. His one big issue is shooting, as his stroke is inconsistent and likely needs a complete rework before defenses will cover him in the NBA from beyond the paint. However, this far down, he has a single elite skill (defense) that should earn him minutes, and he could grow into a sneaky good two-way player in time.
25. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Nets): Kira Lewis (PG), University of Alabama. The Cavaliers and Hanamichi Sakuragi tried their best to make the playoffs and avoid giving the Suns a lottery selection. Alas, they were unsuccessful, but not without a first round pick this year. At #25, they take a long term successor to Mike Conley at PG. Enter Kira Lewis, who defensively was a solid player for Alabama and offensively got to the rim at will. Lewis is a younger sophomore at 19, but having played under an NBA coach in Avery Johnson, he improved and matured as a player to the point that he should carve out a long career in the NBA. He also, statistically speaking, was far better than other PGs in the class of the same age—particularly the higher pedigree Anthony and Mannion at UNC and Arizona respectively. For the Cavs, he’d be a nice bench player that ensures at least one roster spot is locked up long-term on a cheap rate, and if he continues to ascend, he could be a really nice find this far down.
26. Denver Nuggets: Leandro Bolmaro (SG), Argentina. At #26 we have Alex English and the Nuggets, who seem to end up snagging some draft steal at least once a year, and this year is no different. Bolmaro currently plays for FC Barcelona in Spain, and while he does have some issues (shooting percentages are not good, very turnover and foul prone, doesn’t show a lot of verticality), he shows a veteran craft to his game that belies his age. His steals and assist rate in just 17 MPG are off the charts, and he makes a lot of smart basketball plays. He’s the kind of player winning teams want, and at just 19, he still has lots of time to grow and iron out his deficiencies.
27. Golden State Warriors (via Hornets): Josh Green (SG), University of Arizona. With their second of four selections, Chris Mullin and the Warriors continue to add to their backcourt with Josh Green. An athletic freak, Green will probably earn his early reps from his activity on defense, ability to run the floor, and hustle. Offensively, he lacks structure, as his shot selection could be better, and his efficiency on that end in the half-court leaves a lot to be desired. Like Pokusevki though, Green could be brought along slowly and be a low cost, high value bench option for the Warriors down the road.
28. Golden State Warriors (via Kings): Grant Riller (PG), College of Charleston. With their first two selections this round, Chris Mullin and the Warriors went moonshot at #15 for their frontcourt and followed that up with a smaller swing at #27 for their wing. At #28, they go the opposite direction, taking arguably the draft’s most easily projectable three level scorer at guard in Grant Riller. What he makes up for by playing at a small school is ridiculous production—over 132 career games, he averaged 18.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.8 APG, and 1.3 SPG, with 59/36/80 shooting splits. Beyond the raw numbers is an efficiency machine – particularly offensively – and a player who should make an immediate impact, regardless of the amount of minutes. For the Warriors, he’s a player who could be a really good bench PG that, at 23, will be able to step in immediately and contribute to a contending team.
29. Boston Celtics: Devon Dotson (PG), University of Kansas. At #29 we have Ian Noble and the Boston Celtics, who after making the season’s biggest name trade in acquiring LeBron James for Brandon Ingram, Trez Harrell, Jabari Parker, and some prospects, they sit in the “win-now” mode—especially with contract extensions coming for draftees in 2021. Enter Devon Dotson, Kansas’s ball of fury PG who defensively was one of college basketball’s best on ball defenders regardless of position. While there are huge question marks on Dotson’s ability to score given his size, he’s got tremendous character and has been in pressure cooker environments playing for a premier program in Kansas. At the very least, he’s a reliable backup for Boston who can assure they have at least one cheap contract on what will become a very expensive roster in a years’ time.
30. Golden State Warriors (via Bucks): Xavier Tillman (C), Michigan State University. With the last of their four selections – and the last pick in the first round – Chris Mullin and the Warriors go frontcourt again. This time, they take Xavier Tillman, who if you put his stats side by side with Draymond Green’s at MSU, they look eerily similar. Like Green, Tillman has a knack for passing (3.0 APG) to go with stat stuffing on all fronts. From scoring (13.7 PPG), rebounding (10.3 RPG), steals (1.2 SPG), and blocks (2.1 BPG), Tillman can do it all, and he is the classic prospect who would be overlooked because of one major flaw: lack of athleticism. Tillman’s impact comes much more from his basketball IQ and timing than it does elite athletic traits, and as a smaller center (6’8”, 245 lbs), he could get snuffed out by the athletic monsters upfront in the NBA. With his skillset, though, it’s hard to believe he won’t be, at worse, a rotation big who in the right system (Houston Rockets, anyone?) could be an absolute force. The Dubs will gladly scoop him up at the end of Round 1 to add to their bench haul.
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Round 2:
32. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Pistons): Zeke Nnaji (C), University of Arizona.
33. New Orleans Pelicans (via Jazz): Amar Sylla (PF), Senegal.
34. New Orleans Pelicans (via Lakers): Killian Tillie (PF), Gonzaga University.
35. Los Angeles Clippers (via Thunder): Reggie Perry (PF), Mississippi State University. The Clippers and Mike Krzyzewski are watching again as their own lottery pick is conveyed to another team again, but with three picks in the first 12 of Round 2, it’s not all doom and gloom. At #35 they snag Reggie Perry, a prospect who could easily rise up the boards with his huge size (6’10”, 250 lbs) at the 4 and his sneaky underrated playmaking ability at the position. Perry is a bit stuck defensively, as he’s got the size of a center but is more suited to play power forward despite slow feet, but for the Clippers, he’s talent, which is what they need to start adding around RJ Barrett.
36. Minnesota Timberwolves: Cassius Stanley (SG), Duke University.
37. New Orleans Pelicans: Malachi Flynn (PG), San Diego State University.
38. Indiana Pacers (via Wizards): Tre Jones (PG), Duke University
Poor Larry Bird -- he's been on the wrong end of a PG trade dealing a lottery pick to get them in two of the last three years now. With their first in the hands of the Lakers, the Pacers don't make a selection until deep in the draft. At this stage, they grab a developmental PG in Tre Jones. While he's likely not as good as his brother Tyus, he's still a solid PG who comes with similar strengths (basketball IQ, passing, all around effort) and same deficiencies (he's a worse shooter than his brother). For the Pacers, though, with lots of players hitting FA-- including Fred Van Vleet, who figures to be an attractive candidate for many teams -- adding a quality bench guy at a position of need isn't the worst thing in the world.
39. Los Angeles Clippers (via Suns): Desmond Bane (SG), Texas Christian University.
40. New York Knicks: Jordan Nwora (SF), University of Louisville.
41. Golden State Warriors: Tres Tinkle (SF), Oregon State University
42. New Orleans Pelicans (via Raptors): Ashton Haggans (PG), University of Kentucky.
43. Los Angeles Clippers (via Spurs): Daniel Oturu (C), University of Minnesota
44. New York Knicks (via Cavaliers): Isaiah Joe (SG), University of Arkansas.
45. Dallas Mavericks (via Pacers): Robert Woodard II (SF), Mississippi State University.
46. Miami Heat: Joel Ayayi (PG), Gonzaga University.
47. Brooklyn Nets (via Trailblazers): Cassius Winston (PG), Michigan State University. Andrei Kirilenko and the wheeler-dealer Nets are without their first round pick again, though that hasn’t stopped them from accumulating an envious roster of talent that is all 27 or younger. With no real starting needs, the Nets can go BPA, most ready at this spot in Round 2, and in this iteration they snag Winston from MSU. The heart and soul of this team – and a Coach Izzo favorite – Winston has a lot of offensive talent, and is a savvy player. He should have no problem contributing offensively in the NBA. The biggest issues with Winston are his size (maybe 6’1”, 180 lbs) and defense (routinely got torched throughout his four years). He’s a player you’d hope isn’t a starter, as it’s basically 4 v 5 on the defensive end, but for the Nets, he’s a nice offensive option and could injury insurance in the event the mercurial Irving goes down again and Derrick Rose walks this offseason.
48. Los Angeles Lakers (via Rockets): Trendon Watford (SF), Louisiana State University.
49. Golden State Warriors (via Mavericks): Borisa Simanic (PF), Serbia.
50. New Orleans Pelicans (via Bulls): Paul Eboua (PF), Cameroon
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51. Phoenix Suns (via Hawks): Jay Scrubb (SG), John A. Logan CC.
52. Orlando Magic: Neemias Queta (C), Utah State University.
53. Indiana Pacers (via 76ers): Trevelin Queen (SG), New Mexico State University.
54. Toronto Raptors (via Grizzlies): Charles Bassey (C), University of Western Kentucky.
55. Dallas Mavericks (via Nets): Jared Butler (PG), Baylor University.
56. Indiana Pacers (via Nuggets): Makur Maker (PF), Australia.
57. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Hornets): Malcolm Cazalon (SG), France.
58. Miami Heat (via Kings): Corey Kispert (SF), Gonzaga University.
59. Milwaukee Bucks: Markus Howard (PG), Marquette University
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60. New Orleans Pelicans (via Celtics): Ayo Dosunmu (SG), University of Illinois.