2020 Playoffs Matchup Preview
May 17, 2020 13:52:23 GMT
Ian Noble, Mike Krzyzewski, and 7 more like this
Post by Andrei Kirilenko on May 17, 2020 13:52:23 GMT
2020 Playoffs Matchup Preview
1. Boston Celtics
65 wins, +12.5 differential, 48.3% FG, 444 lineup rating (436 if Simmons is out)
8. Chicago Bulls
42 wins, +1.9 differential, 43.2% FG, 421 lineup rating
The Bulls have a solid lineup, but suffer from extreme inefficiency, with Green (34.0%), Waiters (37.6%), and Dedmon (41.4%) all contributing to the starting lineup. The Celtics, on the other hand, boast the league's most efficient offense and have been dominant with LeBron James.
Prediction: Non-competitive Celtics win
4. Brooklyn Nets
55 wins, +6.2 differential, 47.0% FG, 420 lineup rating
5. Philadelphia 76ers
48 wins, -1.5 differential, 44.0% FG, 404 lineup rating
Both teams are perhaps overachieving, but the Nets have done it in a much more understandable way. The 76ers inexplicably have been outscored by opponents this season (worst differential in the entire playoff field), despite putting up 48 wins. The Nets, on the other hand, boast the league's 2nd most efficient offense, and will present some matchup nightmares for the guard-heavy 76ers.
Prediction: Semi-competitive Nets win
3. Charlotte Hornets
59 wins, +11.9 differential, 45.6% FG, 441 lineup rating
6. Orlando Magic
46 wins, +1.6 differential, 46.4% FG, 414 lineup rating
The Magic have been extremely strong ever since Oladipo returned, and are probably a much better team than the stats above show. If they matched up against the Nets or 76ers, I think it would be very competitive. Unfortunately, the Magic are running into an brick wall in a powerhouse Hornets team that finished the season very tough themselves, and who potentially boast the league's best lineup ratings-wise if Simmons is out for the playoffs.
Prediction: Non-competitive Hornets win
2. Milwaukee Bucks
63 wins, +11.0 differential, 44.6% FG, 425 lineup rating
7. Atlanta Hawks
44 wins, +3.8 differential, 45.3% FG, 413 lineup rating
Similar to the Magic, the Hawks have been streaking late in the season after the return of Jusuf Nurkic (17.5/9.2/1.9/1.5, woah). Also similar to the Magic, however, the Hawks did not find a favorable first round matchup. The defending champion Bucks have the league's best defense, allowing just 91.3 points per game. Perhaps one question mark is their performance down the stretch, however, as the Bucks stumbled to the finish line and gave up the 1 seed to the Celtics.
Prediction: Semi-competitive Bucks win
1. Sacramento Kings
59 wins, +8.0 differential, 46.3% FG, 423 lineup rating
8. Golden State Warriors
39 wins, +0.9 differential, 44.0% FG, 393 lineup rating
The Kings are very well-constructed with 3 starters shooting above 48%, and boast the league's best bench by far (394 rating, which is better than the Warriors' starters). Steph Curry and the Warriors have put up a strong fight all season, but the odds are going to be heavily stacked against them here.
Prediction: Non-competitive Kings win
4. Portland Trail Blazers
42 wins, +0.6 differential, 43.4% FG, 402 lineup rating
5. Houston Rockets
42 wins, +1.5 differential, 44.6% FG, 430 lineup rating
On paper, the Rockets have the advantage, but their achilles heel continues to be poor efficiency from Kemba Walker (39.6%) and getting players to stop jacking up threes (Giannis 30% on 305 attempts, Walker 33.8% on 604 attempts). Similarly, the Blazers need Kyle Lowry (38.3%) to step up his shooting in order to alleviate some pressure from Harrison Barnes.
Prediction: Competitive Rockets win
3. Memphis Grizzlies
54 wins, +6.9 differential, 44.6% FG, 417 lineup rating
6. Dallas Mavericks
42 wins, -0.6 differential, 41.4% FG, 398 lineup rating
The Mavericks are actually similar to the tanking teams in terms of offensive efficiency and have one of the weaker lineups in the playoffs. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, have been streaking to end the season, rattling off 7 straight wins to lock in the 3 seed. Memphis will miss KAT later on in the playoffs, but Jokic should have no trouble making quick work of Ja Morant and co.
Prediction: Non-competitive Grizzlies win
2. Denver Nuggets
57 wins, +10.0 differential, 45.6% FG, 433 lineup rating
7. San Antonio Spurs
40 wins, -0.7 differential, 43.7% FG, 412 lineup rating
The Spurs have been sneakily solid ever since acquiring Gallinari, but the team lacks talented post players and their efficiency suffers for it. The Nuggets themselves are not without their issues, with James Harden shooting only 42.8% from the floor (46.8% last year), likely due to his burden of playing point guard this season. The Nuggets do have the advantage statistically, but with 2 of the top 3 scorers in the league squaring off, we could be in for a wild ride.
Prediction: Non-competitive Nuggets win