2020 D5 Lottery Mock Draft
Feb 6, 2020 18:20:40 GMT
Ian Noble, Mike Krzyzewski, and 11 more like this
Post by George Gervin on Feb 6, 2020 18:20:40 GMT
As we round the corner towards the halfway point in games played this D5 season, it feels like a good time for a crack at a very early mock draft. Let's be honest, it's never too early to do a mock draft, especially in a year like 2020 where prospect rankings may be in the eye of the GM beholder, not necessarily consensus opinion. With that being said, here's a first attempt for a lottery mock draft with brief explanations for each team. Draft order was derived from the January 2 standings:
- Detroit Pistons (via Clippers): Anthony Edwards (SG), University of Georgia. Enter the first of a parade of One and Done, teenage prospects in this draft class with Anthony Edwards. For those who don't know much about Edwards, he is a physically imposing 18 year old SG at 6'4", 225 lbs but not the Dion Waiters thicc type that would give you concern this high up. You'll see draft sites throw out two popular player comps for Edwards: D Wade lite or Oladipo 2.0. Personally I'm not a fan of either comparison, as Edwards isn't the defensive player those two guys were even in college. What you will get in Edwards is an attacking SG with elite athleticism and solid handles who should have no problem settling into a top 2 scoring option role in the NBA. For the Pistons and Chauncey Billups, they badly need another high upside perimeter scoring option, so Edwards is an easy choice as not only a solid prospect but one of the draft's youngest players to boot.
- Detroit Pistons: James Wiseman (C), University of Memphis. The Pistons not only currently have the best odds for the first pick, but also the best odds for the second pick based on current standings. At #1 in this mock, they selected the guy who they hope is their SG of the next decade. At #2, in a perfect world there would be an elite caliber SF or PF for Detroit. However, in this draft, the talents that wouldn't be considered a reach this high tend to be PGs, Edwards, and Wiseman. With Coby White already on the roster as the defacto PG of the future, it'd be a slap in the face to add another PG this high up. What makes greater roster sense is to snatch Wiseman, a super bouncy 7 footer who likes to dabble beyond 18 ft to pair with Ayton in a gigantic and athletic frontline. Wiseman doesn't come without risk-- he's been dogged for years by questions about his commitment, and he tends to fall in love a little too much with the jumper-- but he is arguably the highest ceiling player in this draft not named Edwards or Ball. Pistons, swing away this high up!
- Oklahoma City Thunder: LaMelo Ball (PG), Illawara Hawks (NBL - Australia). We finally have gotten to the non-Pistons portion of the lottery, and it starts with the Thunder barely edging out the Magic based on win percentage for the third pick. The Thunder and Kevin Hollis are in a weird spot, with an aging Al Horford they probably wish to get something for, some young guys in Wendell Carter and Aaron Holiday who, when healthy (big IF for both thus far), have shown real promise, and then some sunk cost young players in Kevin Knox and Josh Jackson who serve little more than a roster space at the moment. The Thunder need a player with some juice and flair-- enter the youngest of the Ball brothers, who has grown to a gigantic 6'8' and inherited a lot of Lonzo's traits. He can pass, run the break, and his size makes him a valuable PnR partner. However, he is really, really bad defensively, and probably needs a hard line coach to get the best out of him. For OKC, he'd represent a massive upside play that in this draft, may prove to be the best pick with how wide open the NBA is now for pace, spacing, etc.
- Orlando Magic: Onyeka Okongwu (PF), University of Southern California. At #4 we have the Magic, who in my "Race to the Bottom" post is our strangest lottery team in that, all things being equal, their starting 5 plus Fournier as the 6th man should power them to a consistent playoff berth. Injuries and lack of quality depth have ravaged Blake Bowman's squad, but it's not all bad-- it sets them up for a ready made, rim running replacement for Paul Millsap as he falls off in the form of Onyeka Okongwu. Okongwu was a 5* prospect out of HS, so it's not like he's an unknown commodity. However, his play at USC-- particularly defensively as a switching big and offensively demonstrating great PnR awareness as a roll man-- has him rocketing up boards. He is on the small side if he plays center full time, but as we've seen with Bam Adebayo for Miami, if you've got the requisite athletic traits and BB IQ, you don't have to be gigantic to man the middle. For the Magic, this is an easy pick as a guy who can contribute off the bench and take over in a year assuming Millsap opts in to his $35 MM 2020-21 player option.
- Utah Jazz: Cole Anthony (PG), University of North Carolina. It wouldn't be a mock draft without giving Elton Brand an undersized PG who loves to shoot, score, and not play a traditional PG role. Anthony should be markedly better than Collin Sexton -- though the fact Anthony hasn't helped UNC's slide with his return probably doesn't bode well -- just by virtue of his pedigree as the son of a former NBA player and strong rebound rate for a PG, which should translate to more grab and go opportunities on offense. Anthony certainly has his warts-- that 36% FG being a massive red flag coupled with his 71% FT as a small guard-- which should give any team real pause if he is starting PG on a good team material, or merely an elite 6th man type for a contender. At this stage in this particular draft class, though, it really is going to come down to GM preference, but on Anthony's background and at least some verifiable translation points (rebounding tends to always track well), he's worth the trigger pull at #5.
- Los Angeles Lakers: Nico Mannion (PG), University of Arizona. At #6 is the Lakers, and what Mark Price needs is one word: talent, talent, talent. Their roster is a bit barren of guys you'd call "foundation builders"; Kevin Porter Jr. is a question mark as it's way too early to judge him (especially with how much of a cluster fuck the Cavs are IRL), and Zhaire Smith can't touch anything without contracting an injury. Enter Nico Mannion, who is a funky PG prospect from Zona. What Mannion really does well is run a team the way a PG should; he is the classic floor general, with an understanding of tempo, angles to deliver the ball, and a high BB IQ on the offensive end. Offensively, he should be a stabilizer, and he is a really good FT shooter (85%) and solid 3PT shooter (35%) that portends, as he gets older and stronger, the ability to easily stretch his range. Where Mannion falls short is his measureables (he's a negative wingspan guy like Cody "T-Rex Arms" Zeller") and defensively he doesn't project well beyond being a single position defender. However, the Lakers just need talent, and at this point -- as with the Jazz above -- it's going to come down to GM preference.
- Golden State Warriors: Isaac Okoro (SF), University of Auburn. At #7 is our other strange team in the lottery in the Warriors. Like Orlando, they've been decimated by injuries, losing three elite level talents for the year and having to run with Josh Richardson as a first option. Unlike Orlando, they actually have a decent set of role players-- such as Richaun Holmes, Joe Harris, and Rudy Gay-- that are doing their best to stay semi-competitive. However, the Warriors and Chris Mullin have an upcoming OSFA with some choices to make; Curry is due for a massive extension, Joe Harris and Thomas Bryant are attractive options for teams who miss out on big name FAs, and the Warriors may need to figure out if Richardson's $17.5 MM salary should be moved for other pieces. Therefore, what seems to make sense for the Warriors is Best Player Available, and to me that's Isaac Okoro. What this man does is defend like his life depends on it-- he's an athletically twitchy, archetype profile for a defensive minded wing that knows his role isn't to be a top option. He does have one massive hole in his game-- shooting -- that hampers a bit, for now, what his projectable ceiling is. For the Warriors, though, who are taking this hiatus year to recharge, grabbing a guy who could be a lockdown defender and fit a role makes sense.
- New York Knicks: Killian Hayes (PG), France. At last we have our first true international prospect (Ball doesn't count), and he's going to the Knicks. Billy King's goal since becoming the Knicks GM seems to have been two fold based on his actions: try to suck ass (failed attempts to whack Rubio and Morris) for a better pick, and ensure Hassan Whiteside is in his D5 life at all times. Well he gets the first part this season, coming in the top 10 for the lottery. What sucks this year is it's a draft that has a large group of talent where, really, it could go any direction after the top 2. Hayes is a fast rising prospect as an 18 yr old PG who is making very good progress in Germany professionally. What Hayes does strikingly well is pass and shoot, averaging 5 APG and shooting 50% FG/33% 3PT/88% FT in just 23 MPG for his professional team, which are two traits that high caliber PGs need in today's league. Where this man falls short is two things that, frankly, you can chalk up to age and maturity: he is a foul machine who makes Mitch Rob look disciplined, and he turns the ball over (3 per game) at a stupid high rate. With time, he may prove to be the best guy in this draft. For the Knicks, who clearly want to tell Rubio to take a hike out of town, bringing in the future PG probably makes the most sense.
- New Orleans Pelicans: Tyrese Haliburton (PG), Iowa State University. At #9 we have the man who has had a plethora of selections in the last two drafts, Brian Scalabrine. The Pelicans don't really need anything except a time machine to progress the young talent they have, which is up and down the roster at all positions. What they could use, though, is a change of pace PG from Trae Young, and Haliburton fits that like a glove. Haliburton is probably the analytics darling of this draft class, with a stat stuffing, 50/40/80 shooting split game that translates to a high floor guy in the league. Where he should give a team pause is a two fold, cause and effect problem: his light frame despite being 6'5" translating into a pretty appalling FT attempt rate for a guy with his skill. What he needs is a year in a weight room to unleash his full potential, and it may be perplexing why he's mocked here at #9 and not higher, but he is a guy who will be just shy of 21 at the start of his rookie year, and there are likely higher upside guys in this draft. The Pelicans I'm sure will gladly add a guy who probably will be a great bench player at minimum, likely solid starter down the road.
- Phoenix Suns: Obi Toppin (PF), University of Dayton. Finishing off the top 10 is Jared Montini, who may have had the worst luck of any GM not named Mike Krzyzewski in the last two drafts. In 2018, with high odds to land a top 3 pick and a chance at one of Luka, Ayton, JJJ, he comes in at #4 and takes the highlight video, super long Mo Bamba, who has been so-so thus far for the Magic IRL. Then last year, he has to watch Cleveland and Hanamichi Sakuragi land the #1 pick and a generational prospect in Zion with his 2019 pick. Enter Obi Toppin, who I'd consider the adult of the lottery prospects at 22 years old and an upperclassman. Toppin has been a rock for Dayton this year, with great FG% as a #1 option, solid all around play, and some sneaky good playmaking from the PF spot based on his traditional and advanced stats from an assists standpoint. What you're not getting with him is projectable upside, as at 22 he is who he is as a basketball player essentially, but for Phoenix he'd be a wise hedge against a team in OSFA offering Kyle Kuzma a stupid contract that would be punitive for the Suns to match. Again, in this draft it really becomes a crapshoot after Edwards, Wiseman, and maybe Ball, but on paper this is an easy plug and play for the Suns.
- Washington Wizards: RJ Hampton (SG/PG), New Zealand Breakers (NBL - Australia). At #11 we have the Wizards and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Kareem has two really nice young guys that are healthy in D'Angelo Russell and Bam Adebayo, plus a third guy (albeit proving to be injury prone) in Johnathan Isaac that forms the core of a competent team. However, the rest of the roster seems like it could use an upgrade, as pieces either don't fit the timeline (Goran Dragic), are way overpaid compared to production (Larry Nance Jr., MKG), or probably won't amount to much (all the 2018 2nds from the Trae Young deal) in the long run. RJ Hampton would be a big swing as a high risk, high upside guard who is one of the youngest guys in the draft. He proved to be very raw when on the court with the Breakers, but what you have to appreciate is, as a guy who didn't have eligibility concerns, he took a hard path to test himself and-- with age taken into account -- didn't fall apart. He projects loosely to be a stat stuffing guard, but he is one that needs a strong shooting coach to rework his whole form if he wants to be more than a poor man's Lonzo Ball. For the Wizards, though, it's a worthwhile gamble at this stage on a guy like Hampton.
- Cleveland Cavaliers: Tyrese Maxey (SG), University of Kentucky. At #12 we have the Cavs and Hanamichi Sakuragi, who made the most obvious #1 selection last year in Zion and now need to surround him and Zach LaVine with some pieces. LaVine oscillates between being an on ball guy vs. off ball traditional SG, and it probably makes sense to add another initiator for the Cavs beyond Zion and LaVine. Tyrese Maxey might not have stats that jump off the page, but when you watch him play, you see a guy with a strong BB IQ who gets the rim at will and relentlessly attacks. He's got a live dribble and should be a really good combo guard who can pester PGs defensively and put SGs on skates. With Maxey, the big concerns are the shooting splits (currently at 41% FG and 30% 3PT) despite very good (82% FT) shooting at the line a stroke that looks good coupled with he does force the issue a little more than you'd like. For the Cavs, though, he could be a nice long term option as a 6th man at minimum, and at best a really good third option on a contending squad.
- Milwaukee Bucks (via Atlanta): Deni Avdija (SF/PF), Maccabi Tel Aviv (Israel). At #13 is not the team with the record landing here -- Jay Z and the Atlanta Hawks -- but the defending D5 champion, Glenn Robinson and the Bucks. While that may seem bad for Atlanta, considering who was traded (the Finnisher) for this selection and Darius Garland, I'm sure he's okay with that tradeoff. For the Bucks, they could go in a number of directions. They've drafted some young backcourt types in Dejounte Murray and Garland in the last couple of seasons, and have a 23 yr old center in Myles Turner ready to be extended and step in for an aging Gasol as soon as next season, and have Bogdan Bogdanovic as a young-ish SG, but what they lack is an interchangeable wing with upside. Mikal Bridges is a nice prospect, but he's stuck with the incompetent Suns and may be a second stop type guy unfortunately before any progress is made. A guy like Deni Avdija could be a smart long term play for the Bucks. Avdija burst on the scene with is performance leading Israel in international play against deeper and better European nations in 2019, and he's got that mean streak, brashness to him that is a bit unusual in an international prospect. What he can do is make plays for himself and others, and despite being 18 he is holding his own professionally on a stacked Maccabi team that regularly gets NBA types. He does need a lot of patience from whoever drafts him, as he will take time to adjust and needs some shooting instruction (52% FT...yikes), but he could be a valuable combo forward in time, and the Bucks don't have pressing needs to address at this pick and could afford to swing big.
- Toronto Raptors: Jaden McDaniels (PF), University of Washington. With our last lottery pick is Bryan Colangelo and the Raptors, who are full on into the rebuild with a roster full of young players. I will preface with I don't really see what scouts see with McDaniels-- he comes across as a petulant guy with pretty poor awareness, and statistically he doesn't jump off the page-- but there is definitely some measureables coupled with movement skills that are reminiscent of the Isaac/Ingram, long SF types. What McDaniels can do is block shots with regularity from his SF spot, using his stupid long arms and athleticism to bother players consistently (when he's engaged in the play), and he does chip in on the boards at almost 7 per game for the Huskies. McDaniels, though, is woefully underpeforming in pretty much every other aspect. Shooting splits? 39/31/75, which is not great. Scoring? 12 PPG in 31 MPG, which also doesn't project well. Ball security? 3.3 TOs per game signals a guy way too careless with the ball. So why the lottery projection? Because at 6'10", 7'0" wingspan, and a frame that, while only at 185 lbs right now, looks like he could carry easily 40 lbs more without losing his freaky movement skills, means you may have a guy that is unique among prospects. Not many guys check off those physical boxes, but it would require a team to be very, very patient with him before expecting real returns. For Toronto, who is already on the fringe of the playoffs, taking a big swing isn't a bad idea, as he could push them higher down the road in the Eastern Conference if he pans out.