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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Mar 13, 2020 14:17:09 GMT
If the salary cap is $90m, our hard cap would be $135m. So as you are sitting now, you would not only lose Kuzma, but you'd also lose your picks
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Post by Jerry West on Mar 13, 2020 14:18:07 GMT
If the salary cap is $90m, our hard cap would be $135m. So as you are sitting now, you would not only lose Kuzma, but you'd also lose your picks Doesnt this affect only the 2021 off season and not the 2020 off season?
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Post by Jerry West on Mar 13, 2020 14:18:49 GMT
Those players should opt out, because now they wont get paid as much the following year if they opt in. The cap for this off season is set, why wait another year and risk injury to get paid less? Ask Paul George If the cap really does shrink a lot, his decision to opt-in last season is going to look disastrous Yeah I believe he should have opted out specially with his shoulder injury
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Mar 13, 2020 14:25:50 GMT
Doesnt this affect only the 2021 off season and not the 2020 off season? Nope, the cap for 2020/21 will be set in June by the league based on some math involving basketball related income for the 2019/20 season. So the Morey/China thing, plus this coronavirus outbreak, are both going to factor into that #. In D5 we take that cap figure and implement it on July 1, which impacts OSFA and is also the figure we use to decide if teams are over the hard cap and lose draft picks.
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Post by George Gervin on Mar 13, 2020 14:52:46 GMT
The teams who will be most helped by a potential cap shrinkage are those with rookies signing their first extension— the likelihood that several teams in D5 get the GSW IRL version of Steph’s 4/$44 MM is pretty good then.
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Post by James Kay on Mar 13, 2020 15:39:39 GMT
Those players should opt out, because now they wont get paid as much the following year if they opt in. The cap for this off season is set, why wait another year and risk injury to get paid less? Ask Paul George If the cap really does shrink a lot, his decision to opt-in last season is going to look disastrous Should’ve predicted a global pandemic
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Post by Jerry West on Mar 13, 2020 16:04:31 GMT
Ask Paul George If the cap really does shrink a lot, his decision to opt-in last season is going to look disastrous Should’ve predicted a global pandemic That's what separates good from great agents
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Post by George Gervin on Mar 13, 2020 16:24:45 GMT
To put max salary levels in perspective, if the cap is $90 MM, here’s the new max salary levels: - 6 yrs or fewer service time: $22.5 MM
- 7-9 yrs: $27 MM
- 10 yrs: $31.5 MM
By contrast to the assumed $116 MM cap, that’s roughly $6.5-9 MM a season shaved off a max deal for those players.
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Post by Ian Noble on Mar 13, 2020 16:34:47 GMT
So we have the biggest crop of free agents ever to hit D5 at a time when top free agents are going to cost lower than ever.
I wonder what the mentality will be around signing just one year deals?
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Post by Tom Izzo on Mar 13, 2020 16:37:11 GMT
To put max salary levels in perspective, if the cap is $90 MM, here’s the new max salary levels: - 6 yrs or fewer service time: $22.5 MM
- 7-9 yrs: $27 MM
- 10 yrs: $31.5 MM
By contrast to the assumed $116 MM cap, that’s roughly $6.5-9 MM a season shaved off a max deal for those players. Which is why it would make little sense for a lot of max players to opt out. They can wait it out one year and see, potentially, a much larger salary the following season. I'd imagine the cap dips just this year and then spikes back to normal next year?
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Post by George Gervin on Mar 13, 2020 16:43:16 GMT
To put max salary levels in perspective, if the cap is $90 MM, here’s the new max salary levels: - 6 yrs or fewer service time: $22.5 MM
- 7-9 yrs: $27 MM
- 10 yrs: $31.5 MM
By contrast to the assumed $116 MM cap, that’s roughly $6.5-9 MM a season shaved off a max deal for those players. Which is why it would make little sense for a lot of max players to opt out. They can wait it out one year and see, potentially, a much larger salary the following season. I'd imagine the cap dips just this year and then spikes back to normal next year? I’m not entirely sure if it’d jump right back up— the NBA had that with the new TV deal that led to KD to the Warriors and lot of mediocre guys (looking at you, Evan Turner and Allen Crabbe) being paid stupid ass money. They may try to get the NBAPA to agree to a cap smoothing. I think bigger than the opt out decisions are guys like Steph and PG who will be FAs regardless— they are going to make potentially $40-60 MM less over the life of a deal depending on the length of contract they sign. It’s going to be tough for PAs since both those guys have injury histories and probably wouldn’t risk a 1+1, but some teams will get relative bargains on those guys based on production.
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Post by Tom Izzo on Mar 13, 2020 16:47:26 GMT
Which is why it would make little sense for a lot of max players to opt out. They can wait it out one year and see, potentially, a much larger salary the following season. I'd imagine the cap dips just this year and then spikes back to normal next year? I’m not entirely sure if it’d jump right back up— the NBA had that with the new TV deal that led to KD to the Warriors and lot of mediocre guys (looking at you, Evan Turner and Allen Crabbe) being paid stupid ass money. They may try to get the NBAPA to agree to a cap smoothing. I think bigger than the opt out decisions are guys like Steph and PG who will be FAs regardless— they are going to make potentially $40-60 MM less over the life of a deal depending on the length of contract they sign. It’s going to be tough for PAs since both those guys have injury histories and probably wouldn’t risk a 1+1, but some teams will get relative bargains on those guys based on production. I imagine signing a one year deal would be beneficial if the cap drops that low. Players of that caliber will get maxed regardless, I imagine. The real problem are teams looking to resign those players that are now over the hard cap and will be unable to. Golden State is the biggest example
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Post by George Gervin on Mar 13, 2020 16:52:15 GMT
I imagine signing a one year deal would be beneficial if the cap drops that low. Players of that caliber will get maxed regardless, I imagine. The real problem are teams looking to resign those players that are now over the hard cap and will be unable to. Golden State is the biggest example Steph is 32 though and this hand injury also caused nerve damage— would a team really max him in 2021 at 33? Not sure that’s wise, and PG has an injury list that looks like a con’s rap sheet between his shoulders and legs. Agreed on cap— which means teams with space are probably going to circle the wagons trying to take guys off those team’s hands for nothing to give them room to sign those max types.
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Post by James Kay on Mar 13, 2020 18:39:03 GMT
You guys are crazy if you think the salary cap is going to shrink lol. Worst (and most likely) is that it will remain the same.
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Post by Ian Noble on Mar 15, 2020 17:43:03 GMT
If the Salary Cap shrinks to $100m that will mean any team projected to be above $150m in salaries will be over the Hard Cap, meaning they lose their draft picks (!) for one thing. That would mean these teams: Chicago Bulls Cleveland Cavaliers Denver Nuggets Houston Rockets Orlando Magic (for the second year running) Sacramento KingsLooking at the news reports though, even with Morey's tweets taken into account the salary cap is marked to increase to $115m. Losing the projected $8m or $9m off that figure puts us at $106m at worst.
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Post by George Gervin on Mar 15, 2020 17:59:08 GMT
If the Salary Cap shrinks to $100m that will mean any team projected to be above $150m in salaries will be over the Hard Cap, meaning they lose their draft picks (!) for one thing. That would mean these teams: Chicago Bulls Cleveland Cavaliers Denver Nuggets Houston Rockets Orlando Magic (for the second year running) Sacramento KingsLooking at the news reports though, even with Morey's tweets taken into account the salary cap is marked to increase to $115m. Losing the projected $8m or $9m off that figure puts us at $106m at worst. Would these teams also not be able to exercise Team Options as well? I know Player Options is its own dicey proposition, but Team Options seem clear from last offseason’s decisions
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Post by Jerry West on Mar 15, 2020 18:02:34 GMT
If the Salary Cap shrinks to $100m that will mean any team projected to be above $150m in salaries will be over the Hard Cap, meaning they lose their draft picks (!) for one thing. That would mean these teams: Chicago Bulls Cleveland Cavaliers Denver Nuggets Houston Rockets Orlando Magic (for the second year running) Sacramento KingsLooking at the news reports though, even with Morey's tweets taken into account the salary cap is marked to increase to $115m. Losing the projected $8m or $9m off that figure puts us at $106m at worst. So Denver, Orlando and Sacramento. And SAC and ORL can still trade it. Denver can only potentially trade with Toronto.
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Post by Jerry West on Mar 15, 2020 18:15:49 GMT
This also sucks for whoever gets drafted this year since they will get less money over the 5 year period
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Post by Ian Noble on Mar 15, 2020 18:34:51 GMT
If the Salary Cap shrinks to $100m that will mean any team projected to be above $150m in salaries will be over the Hard Cap, meaning they lose their draft picks (!) for one thing. That would mean these teams: Chicago Bulls Cleveland Cavaliers Denver Nuggets Houston Rockets Orlando Magic (for the second year running) Sacramento KingsLooking at the news reports though, even with Morey's tweets taken into account the salary cap is marked to increase to $115m. Losing the projected $8m or $9m off that figure puts us at $106m at worst. Would these teams also not be able to exercise Team Options as well? I know Player Options is its own dicey proposition, but Team Options seem clear from last offseason’s decisions Yeah you can't pick up a TO if you're over the hard cap.
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Post by Steve Nash on Mar 15, 2020 18:44:09 GMT
When are Player Options decided? Millsap and Fournier change my projection pretty significantly
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Post by Jerry West on Mar 15, 2020 18:55:36 GMT
When are Player Options decided? Millsap and Fournier change my projection pretty significantly I'll let you in on a secret. Milsap is opting in
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Post by Ian Noble on Mar 15, 2020 19:19:45 GMT
When are Player Options decided? Millsap and Fournier change my projection pretty significantly Player Options are decided by the Trade Committee and are announced in the time between the Playoffs ending (late June) and the 1st July (when salaries progress and Off Season Free Agency starts).
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Post by George Gervin on Mar 17, 2020 16:35:54 GMT
Doing some math cause coronavirus quarantine and working from home has left me with more downtime, and using the NBA’s estimates of $1.2 MM in gate revenue per regular season game and $2 MM per playoff game from last season, I’ve roughed out the potential cap contraction. I understand this is SUPER simplistic, but it’s the best I could do with what’s public on the cap calculations: - Lost revenue per team (assuming each one has 16 games remaining, understanding some have more, others less): $19.2 MM
- Total lost regular season gate revenue: $576 MM
- Total lost playoff gate revenue (assuming $2 MM per, and that guaranteed two home games per team per round per matchup): $120 MM
- Total lost gate revenue (this doesn’t include TV revenue..): $696 MM
- Total cap contraction (from current $109 MM): $11.6 MM, or new 2020 cap of $97.4 MM with a new hard cap of $146.1 MM
In short, if the season is cancelled and the revenue just assessed as a sunk cost, NOT factoring in TV revenue, the cap could go down A LOT. In addition, if the NBAPA and League doesn’t agree to a form of cap smoothing to lessen the impact, it could be a 2014/2015 situation all over again, where one FA class is fucked on salaries compared to the subsequent class getting a huge bump.
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Post by Tom Izzo on Mar 17, 2020 16:53:17 GMT
It would be in no one's best interest to not agree to a smoothing situation
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Post by George Gervin on Mar 17, 2020 16:54:43 GMT
It would be in no one's best interest to not agree to a smoothing situation That’s the same argument made by many pre-KD to the Warriors and the NBAPA STILL wouldn’t agree to it
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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Mar 17, 2020 16:58:02 GMT
Zero chance owners agree to cap smoothing.
Rich people like money above all else. No way they agree to pay more than they have to.
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Post by George Gervin on Mar 17, 2020 17:33:17 GMT
Zero chance owners agree to cap smoothing. Rich people like money above all else. No way they agree to pay more than they have to. I actually think in this instance they would be more inclined to, mainly cause of the 2021 FA class. If you’re the Bucks owners, and you could get Giannis on a max deal for significantly less under a “smoothing” situation vs. a SnapBack to previous increases, that’s the better reason for the smoothing. Same could be said for Ballmer on PG and Kawhi.
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Post by Tom Izzo on Mar 17, 2020 17:52:28 GMT
I guess I figured it would be in everyone's best interest to smooth things out to prevent a potential KD situation next year and also some teams from going into the luxury tax this year with a lower cap. People plan for increases, not decreases. Who would be in the luxury tax next season with a sharp decrease? And of those teams, why would they not be in favor of smoothing?
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Post by James Kay on Mar 17, 2020 21:35:07 GMT
The salary cap is not going to shrink. Like I said previously, the worst that will happen is that it will remain the same.
The salary cap isn't based on the BRI of the previous season, so unless the lost revenue is found to impact the next season it shouldn't lower the projected BRI.
Not to mention that a lower BRI would cripple so many teams by pushing them above the luxury tax threshold.
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Post by James Kay on Mar 17, 2020 21:36:24 GMT
Zero chance owners agree to cap smoothing. Rich people like money above all else. No way they agree to pay more than they have to. Exactly. And shrinking salary cap because of lower BRI also = lower luxury tax threshold = rich people paying more money.
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