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Post by Ian Noble on Oct 10, 2019 12:14:28 GMT
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Post by George Gervin on Oct 10, 2019 12:51:56 GMT
Just to confirm, for any of the teams above on this list who would hardcapped, in order to retain any of their draft picks, they’re required to get below that $139 MM HC line before the ACTUAL NBA draft starts, correct?
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Post by Ian Noble on Oct 10, 2019 13:25:20 GMT
Just to confirm, for any of the teams above on this list who would hardcapped, in order to retain any of their draft picks, they’re required to get below that $139 MM HC line before the ACTUAL NBA draft starts, correct? Correct. On the day the Rookie Draft starts, if your team is projected to be over the Hard Cap when salaries progress on the following July 1st (usually less than a week later), you lose all your picks in that Draft.
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Post by Ian Noble on Oct 10, 2019 13:27:32 GMT
D5 rules around contracts and salary cap evolved every year and I was looking forward to some stability on that front, but now we've got this situation throwing us a curveball
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Post by George Gervin on Oct 10, 2019 13:40:25 GMT
Shameless plug here, but the Spurs have about $96 MM in expiring deals to work with and some of these teams in the HC zone have some elite guys I’d bet they want to retain next summer...we’re open for business
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Amare Stoudemire
Sacramento Kings
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Posts: 2,416
Apr 14, 2024 11:04:23 GMT
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Post by Amare Stoudemire on Oct 10, 2019 15:24:41 GMT
So would this not affect the paul george opt in Ian Noble? Also is their a mid level in this league?
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Post by Ian Noble on Oct 10, 2019 16:52:29 GMT
So would this not affect the paul george opt in Ian Noble? Also is their a mid level in this league? Thankfully the Paul George Opt-In is already done Yes the MLE is here.
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Post by Alex English on Oct 10, 2019 16:59:06 GMT
Lets not get ahead of ourselves. This is not a realistic situation imo. It's not the NBA head office altering their cap projections, it's individual teams, who I assume plan for a wide range of possibilities all of varying degrees of realism. To me this is like a doomsday scenario being looked at by some teams because they don't want to be caught blindsided by anything even remotely possible.
Also, it's not a projected drop of 10-15% of the current cap, it's of the current projection for next year, which is 116 million. So the absolute worst case here would be that the cap would be around 100 million.
I'd be surprised if the cap drops at all though. They're currently projecting a 7 mil increase. I find it hard to believe that China is such a large part of the NBAs business that not only would the growth be wiped out, but the league would also go into decline.
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Post by Alex English on Oct 10, 2019 17:01:58 GMT
Actually no. This is crazy. Everybody panic! Don't spend any money this offseason! You'll all live to regret it.
Now can I re-sign Siakam for the league minimum?
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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Oct 10, 2019 17:10:52 GMT
NBA China was valued at $5 Billion by Business Insider. A major disruption will undoubtedly have a meaningful affect on the salary cap.
Maybe not a 15% decrease but it will be significant
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Post by Alex English on Oct 10, 2019 22:50:08 GMT
NBA China was valued at $5 Billion by Business Insider. A major disruption will undoubtedly have a meaningful affect on the salary cap. Maybe not a 15% decrease but it will be significant That's definitely more than I would've guessed. How much of that business goes into basketball related income though? Only related revenue gets included in the salary cap calculations. I doubt more than a few million could be knocked off the cap from China related nonsense.
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Oct 11, 2019 0:40:23 GMT
NBA China was valued at $5 Billion by Business Insider. A major disruption will undoubtedly have a meaningful affect on the salary cap. Maybe not a 15% decrease but it will be significant That's definitely more than I would've guessed. How much of that business goes into basketball related income though? Only related revenue gets included in the salary cap calculations. I doubt more than a few million could be knocked off the cap from China related nonsense. Well we know broadcasting rights hit BRI and we know Tencent has a $1.5b/5 year streaming deal with the NBA. I'm sure the math is a bit funky, but if you assume $300m revenue per year from Tencent, divided by 30 teams, thats approximately $10m per year per team. And then the cap impact of BRI is 51%, which means just on the Tencent contract alone we see a ~%5.1m hit to the salary cap. Other BRI that China impacts would mainly be smaller things like merchandise sales. Decreasing by $10m is probably a stretch, but the cap could definitely decrease by somewhere in the $7-8m range which puts it right back around $100m.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Oct 11, 2019 5:15:25 GMT
Fuck China. Don't care if it affects me. *secretly prepares for all possible situations*
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Post by Ian Noble on Oct 11, 2019 11:06:12 GMT
I wonder what would happen if Daryl Morey called out the United States instead for (1) extraordinary rendition and torture or (2) foreign policy, particularly Israel's. I guess it's credit to the USA that it wouldn't shit-can the entire Houston Rockets team, but it'd likely have the same effect on Morey's career, which I assume will be quietly sidelined and let go when his contract next expires. edit: reminds of Dwight Howard's Palestine tweet
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Post by George Gervin on Oct 11, 2019 11:53:14 GMT
I wonder what would happen if Daryl Morey called out the United States instead for (1) extraordinary rendition and torture or (2) foreign policy, particularly Israel's. I guess it's credit to the USA that it wouldn't shit-can the entire Houston Rockets team, but it'd likely have the same effect on Morey's career, which I assume will be quietly sidelined and let go when his contract next expires. edit: reminds of Dwight Howard's Palestine tweetI don’t think Morey will be devastated if he’s not brought back; he’s probably the one GM who with his background could just as easily make a killing for a Hedge Fund/PE, or join an analytics heavy baseball team (hello Houston Astros?). Unlike a guy like Mitch Kupchak, or another old school type GM, he doesn’t need the NBA in order to be successful/have a career.
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Chris Mullin
Golden State Warriors
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Posts: 1,303
Feb 19, 2024 21:58:28 GMT
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Post by Chris Mullin on Oct 11, 2019 14:21:25 GMT
Ian Noble you listed my team as a team that would be over the Hard Cap. If this scenario is potentially for the 2020-21 season then we would not be over the $139M mark listed above. We would be over it for the 2019-20 season that is about to begin though. So which season are you basing your projections for teams that would be over the Hard Cap? If it's next season we wouldn't be over and there would be several other teams not listed above that would be over potentially. I'm a little confused about this whole thing, so if someone could clarify for me, I would greatly appreciate it!
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Post by Ian Noble on Oct 11, 2019 15:48:59 GMT
Chris Mullin - I was just listing it for the current time, not a 2020 projection
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Post by Shaquille O'Neal on Feb 7, 2020 9:30:04 GMT
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Larry Bird
Indiana Pacers
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Posts: 1,672
Mar 5, 2024 13:29:26 GMT
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Post by Larry Bird on Feb 7, 2020 10:44:09 GMT
Maximum contracts, which are a specific percentage of the cap based on years of NBA service, will having the following starting salaries:
0-6 years (25% of the cap): $28,750,000 7-9 years (30% of the cap): $34,500,000 10-plus years (35% of the cap): $40,250,000
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Feb 7, 2020 15:01:24 GMT
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Post by James Kay on Feb 7, 2020 15:31:23 GMT
? What's this about? I read that the cap is still projected to increase as previously predicted
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Post by George Gervin on Feb 7, 2020 15:50:09 GMT
? What's this about? I read that the cap is still projected to increase as previously predicted The latest figures from the NBA is a slight under from that $116 MM figure to about $114 MM
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Post by Tom Izzo on Feb 7, 2020 20:55:31 GMT
If you read the article it's expected to be $115M
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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Mar 13, 2020 0:03:34 GMT
If the China stuff didn't impact the 2021-22 cap, the suspension/cancelation definitely will.
I bet next year's number will be significantly lower
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Mar 13, 2020 0:24:37 GMT
If the China stuff didn't impact the 2021-22 cap, the suspension/cancelation definitely will. I bet next year's number will be significantly lower I’ve read potentially up to 20-30% below projections, which would have insane implications for us in D5.
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Post by George Gervin on Mar 13, 2020 0:24:47 GMT
If the China stuff didn't impact the 2021-22 cap, the suspension/cancelation definitely will. I bet next year's number will be significantly lower Bob Myers the other day at a press conference said they were modeling it to come in “significantly under” the NBA’s $116 MM estimate. He didn’t specify a number, but I don’t think it’s out of line to expect a contraction to $95-$100 MM range
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Post by Tom Izzo on Mar 13, 2020 8:42:02 GMT
If the China stuff didn't impact the 2021-22 cap, the suspension/cancelation definitely will. I bet next year's number will be significantly lower Bob Myers the other day at a press conference said they were modeling it to come in “significantly under” the NBA’s $116 MM estimate. He didn’t specify a number, but I don’t think it’s out of line to expect a contraction to $95-$100 MM range This is about to have huge implications. Why would players like Kyrie and Kemba opt out to take a significant pay cut and miss out on the 10 year 35% contract the year after? Suddenly I can see them staying locked in. Golden State doesn't have the cap to resign Steph. Phoenix doesn't have the cap to resign Kuzma. If Kawhi opts out, Chicago will not have the cap to resign him. After resigning Paul George, Charlotte will very likely be unable to retain Montrezl Harrell. I can't see Westbrook opting out of his $42M. Why would LeBron opt out now? $41M on the contending Celtics. LeBron hasn't been the type to sign long deals as he knows he's always going to get paid. So opting out would mean a pay cut. Boston could retain him, but he'd be looking at a reduction in salary. Wouldn't make sense as he can wait one year for the cap to bounce back and get more money next summer. All in all, I see some of the players on player options who were previously opting out or on the bubble, opting in instead. And I see some teams will be unable to pay their stars, thus opening the door for other teams to poach.
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Post by Jared Montini on Mar 13, 2020 14:05:41 GMT
Bob Myers the other day at a press conference said they were modeling it to come in “significantly under” the NBA’s $116 MM estimate. He didn’t specify a number, but I don’t think it’s out of line to expect a contraction to $95-$100 MM range This is about to have huge implications. Why would players like Kyrie and Kemba opt out to take a significant pay cut and miss out on the 10 year 35% contract the year after? Suddenly I can see them staying locked in. Golden State doesn't have the cap to resign Steph. Phoenix doesn't have the cap to resign Kuzma. If Kawhi opts out, Chicago will not have the cap to resign him. After resigning Paul George, Charlotte will very likely be unable to retain Montrezl Harrell. I can't see Westbrook opting out of his $42M. Why would LeBron opt out now? $41M on the contending Celtics. LeBron hasn't been the type to sign long deals as he knows he's always going to get paid. So opting out would mean a pay cut. Boston could retain him, but he'd be looking at a reduction in salary. Wouldn't make sense as he can wait one year for the cap to bounce back and get more money next summer. All in all, I see some of the players on player options who were previously opting out or on the bubble, opting in instead. And I see some teams will be unable to pay their stars, thus opening the door for other teams to poach. Why can’t I resign kuzma
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Post by Jerry West on Mar 13, 2020 14:09:33 GMT
Those players should opt out, because now they wont get paid as much the following year if they opt in.
The cap for this off season is set, why wait another year and risk injury to get paid less?
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Mar 13, 2020 14:14:57 GMT
Those players should opt out, because now they wont get paid as much the following year if they opt in. The cap for this off season is set, why wait another year and risk injury to get paid less? Ask Paul George If the cap really does shrink a lot, his decision to opt-in last season is going to look disastrous
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