D5 OS Analytics (Top WAR) - Part Five - Flash Gordon
Sept 11, 2019 12:43:23 GMT
Jeremiah Hill, Brian Scalabrine, and 1 more like this
Post by George Gervin on Sept 11, 2019 12:43:23 GMT
Here is Part Five of the D5 Future WAR Analytics! This batch includes teams, as the title of this part hints, with their own Flash Gordon (or multiple Flashs), savior of their D5 universe, on the roster. I will caveat that teams 3 through 6 are very close together on this list, and the top two teams have clear separation from every other team in D5. Without further ado, here is the conclusion to the Offseason WAR Series.
6. Cleveland Cavaliers: Top 3 WAR Score: 57.7. GM: Hanamichi Sakuragi Leading off Part Five and the top group is the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs fortunes on this list could’ve been very different were it not for their lottery win in 2019 and the selection of Zion Williamson, who at nearly 30 projected WAR over the next five years is the most valuable rookie (no surprise) from the 2019 class. Checking in at #2 for the Cavs in projected value is not Zach LaVine, the scoring pogo stick in the backcourt, but Derrick White, who projects to be a quality starter for years to come based on his WAR projections. The rest of the Cavs young players project to provide decent value, though the CARMELO engine is not thrilled with the future for the Cavs other 2019 lottery pick, Bol Bol, who is projected to offer essentially average NBA replacement player value over the next five years.
5. Atlanta Hawks: Top 3 WAR Score: 57.9. GM: Jay Z At #5, we have the Atlanta Hawks. Famously derided for their Facebook philanthropic ways earlier this offseason, the Hawks made two big trades to add Jimmy Butler and the third best young player on their roster, Lauri Markkanen. Hilariously – or quizzically, take your pick – the second best young player on the Hawks roster is Kevon Looney, who the CARMELO engine projects to be a good starter over the next five seasons. Their precocious point guard, DeAron Fox, leads the way in the WAR rankings for Atlanta, but he’s certainly not alone in the Hawks pursuit of the playoffs in the future.
4. San Antonio Spurs: Top 3 WAR Score: 59.6. GM: George Gervin Right outside the top 3 are the Spurs, who owe their position in the top 5 for WAR rankings to two 2018 draftees: Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Slovenian Wonder Kid projects to offer over 40 WAR in the next five seasons, which puts him firmly in the top 10 for players under 25 based on overall WAR. SGA isn’t too shabby either, with good starter level projection at 17.7 WAR over the next five seasons. The rest of the Spurs roster of young players leaves much to be desired, as many right now project to be no better than replacement over the next five seasons. The Spurs have two great pieces, but it’s unclear if the third piece is currently on the roster for them as they continue their rebuild.
3. Brooklyn Nets: Top 3 WAR Score: 66.1. GM: Andrei Kirilenko Coming in at #3, we have the Brooklyn Nets. Like Atlanta at #5, the Nets bucked their tanking ways in favor of a big time move to bring in a star. The Nets added mercurial point guard Kyrie Irving, and he joins a team that is the first on this list with three young players projected to each offer at least 20 WAR over the next five seasons. The three players are not a surprise, as the Nets acquired all through trade and parted with much to get them: Devin Booker, Kristaps Porzingis, and John Collins. After those three, there is a steep drop-off for the Nets young players, but the two players at #4 (Derrick Jones Jr.) and #5 (Danuel House) are pleasant surprises as low risk, in season free agent signings who project to offer positive value over the next five seasons.
2. Memphis Grizzlies: Top 3 WAR Score: 104.6. GM: Jeremiah Hill At #2 – and well out in front of the distant Nets at #3 on this list – are the Memphis Grizzlies. They are the first team in these rankings to crack triple digits for their top 3 players WAR score, which is incredible. The Grizzlies top three is comprised of players drafted all over the board: one was a prodigy, #1 overall pick (Karl Anthony-Towns), another was a late lottery find (Donovan Mitchell), and the last was a second round gem (Nikola Jokic). Jokic and KAT are both in the top 10 of all players under age-25 based on projected WAR, and while Mitchell’s WAR looks low compared to his first two years of production, he likely stands to continue to improve and blossom into an elite guard. On top of the elite young three the Grizzlies have, their other young players all project to offer positive WAR over the next five seasons, from borderline good starter level (Marcus Smart), to decent bench options (Dzan Musa and Jonah Bolden). The Grizzlies, absent injuries, figure to be in the discussion for the Western Conference crown for years to come, and they’re in striking distance of the top team on this list for the brightest future in D5.
1. Boston Celtics: Top 3 WAR Score: 116.9. GM: Ian Noble At #1 in the D5 Future WAR rankings is the Boston Celtics. This is a team that not only features two players with projected WAR above 40 each in the next five seasons, but also six players that project to offer at least 10 or more WAR. The Celtics are rich in top end young talent, as well as quality depth amongst their young talent. The top of their roster is Ben Simmons, the prodigal “Is he a Point Guard or Power Forward, and where is his jump shot?” Australian who has been a whirlwind at the NBA level. Cracking the 40 WAR or more club with Simmons is Joel Embiid, the animated big from Cameroon who, if healthy, has proven to be a dominant post player in the NBA. The rest of the Celtics double digit players are some former high lottery selections (Jamaal Murray, Jaylen Brown, and Brandon Ingram) paired with one bargain selection (Montrezl Harrell) to give the Celtics the brightest future in all of D5. The only concerns jeopardizing this team’s spot atop the rankings would be injuries, as two of their top six have dealt with serious injury problems in the their young careers, and money, as their top six players come up for contracts over the next three seasons and could seriously hamstring the cap sheet for the Celtics. There may be tough choices ahead for this squad, but overall the Celtics are in an envious position as the only team with two players cracking 40 WAR and with cap space to potentially retain most of this young, promising core.
That concludes the final part of the WAR projection series! Thanks for tuning in to read these analyses, and it’ll be interesting to see how future seasons shake out for teams based on where the WAR projections believe players will add value.
6. Cleveland Cavaliers: Top 3 WAR Score: 57.7. GM: Hanamichi Sakuragi Leading off Part Five and the top group is the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs fortunes on this list could’ve been very different were it not for their lottery win in 2019 and the selection of Zion Williamson, who at nearly 30 projected WAR over the next five years is the most valuable rookie (no surprise) from the 2019 class. Checking in at #2 for the Cavs in projected value is not Zach LaVine, the scoring pogo stick in the backcourt, but Derrick White, who projects to be a quality starter for years to come based on his WAR projections. The rest of the Cavs young players project to provide decent value, though the CARMELO engine is not thrilled with the future for the Cavs other 2019 lottery pick, Bol Bol, who is projected to offer essentially average NBA replacement player value over the next five years.
5. Atlanta Hawks: Top 3 WAR Score: 57.9. GM: Jay Z At #5, we have the Atlanta Hawks. Famously derided for their Facebook philanthropic ways earlier this offseason, the Hawks made two big trades to add Jimmy Butler and the third best young player on their roster, Lauri Markkanen. Hilariously – or quizzically, take your pick – the second best young player on the Hawks roster is Kevon Looney, who the CARMELO engine projects to be a good starter over the next five seasons. Their precocious point guard, DeAron Fox, leads the way in the WAR rankings for Atlanta, but he’s certainly not alone in the Hawks pursuit of the playoffs in the future.
4. San Antonio Spurs: Top 3 WAR Score: 59.6. GM: George Gervin Right outside the top 3 are the Spurs, who owe their position in the top 5 for WAR rankings to two 2018 draftees: Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Slovenian Wonder Kid projects to offer over 40 WAR in the next five seasons, which puts him firmly in the top 10 for players under 25 based on overall WAR. SGA isn’t too shabby either, with good starter level projection at 17.7 WAR over the next five seasons. The rest of the Spurs roster of young players leaves much to be desired, as many right now project to be no better than replacement over the next five seasons. The Spurs have two great pieces, but it’s unclear if the third piece is currently on the roster for them as they continue their rebuild.
3. Brooklyn Nets: Top 3 WAR Score: 66.1. GM: Andrei Kirilenko Coming in at #3, we have the Brooklyn Nets. Like Atlanta at #5, the Nets bucked their tanking ways in favor of a big time move to bring in a star. The Nets added mercurial point guard Kyrie Irving, and he joins a team that is the first on this list with three young players projected to each offer at least 20 WAR over the next five seasons. The three players are not a surprise, as the Nets acquired all through trade and parted with much to get them: Devin Booker, Kristaps Porzingis, and John Collins. After those three, there is a steep drop-off for the Nets young players, but the two players at #4 (Derrick Jones Jr.) and #5 (Danuel House) are pleasant surprises as low risk, in season free agent signings who project to offer positive value over the next five seasons.
2. Memphis Grizzlies: Top 3 WAR Score: 104.6. GM: Jeremiah Hill At #2 – and well out in front of the distant Nets at #3 on this list – are the Memphis Grizzlies. They are the first team in these rankings to crack triple digits for their top 3 players WAR score, which is incredible. The Grizzlies top three is comprised of players drafted all over the board: one was a prodigy, #1 overall pick (Karl Anthony-Towns), another was a late lottery find (Donovan Mitchell), and the last was a second round gem (Nikola Jokic). Jokic and KAT are both in the top 10 of all players under age-25 based on projected WAR, and while Mitchell’s WAR looks low compared to his first two years of production, he likely stands to continue to improve and blossom into an elite guard. On top of the elite young three the Grizzlies have, their other young players all project to offer positive WAR over the next five seasons, from borderline good starter level (Marcus Smart), to decent bench options (Dzan Musa and Jonah Bolden). The Grizzlies, absent injuries, figure to be in the discussion for the Western Conference crown for years to come, and they’re in striking distance of the top team on this list for the brightest future in D5.
1. Boston Celtics: Top 3 WAR Score: 116.9. GM: Ian Noble At #1 in the D5 Future WAR rankings is the Boston Celtics. This is a team that not only features two players with projected WAR above 40 each in the next five seasons, but also six players that project to offer at least 10 or more WAR. The Celtics are rich in top end young talent, as well as quality depth amongst their young talent. The top of their roster is Ben Simmons, the prodigal “Is he a Point Guard or Power Forward, and where is his jump shot?” Australian who has been a whirlwind at the NBA level. Cracking the 40 WAR or more club with Simmons is Joel Embiid, the animated big from Cameroon who, if healthy, has proven to be a dominant post player in the NBA. The rest of the Celtics double digit players are some former high lottery selections (Jamaal Murray, Jaylen Brown, and Brandon Ingram) paired with one bargain selection (Montrezl Harrell) to give the Celtics the brightest future in all of D5. The only concerns jeopardizing this team’s spot atop the rankings would be injuries, as two of their top six have dealt with serious injury problems in the their young careers, and money, as their top six players come up for contracts over the next three seasons and could seriously hamstring the cap sheet for the Celtics. There may be tough choices ahead for this squad, but overall the Celtics are in an envious position as the only team with two players cracking 40 WAR and with cap space to potentially retain most of this young, promising core.
That concludes the final part of the WAR projection series! Thanks for tuning in to read these analyses, and it’ll be interesting to see how future seasons shake out for teams based on where the WAR projections believe players will add value.