D5 OS Analytics (Top WAR) - Part Four - Born to be Wild
Sept 10, 2019 13:35:00 GMT
Andrei Kirilenko, Chris Mullin, and 4 more like this
Post by George Gervin on Sept 10, 2019 13:35:00 GMT
Here is Part Four of the D5 Future WAR Analytics! This batch includes teams with various approaches to ascending into the top half of the future rankings, with some having MVP level prospects, whereas others have sheer volume of quality prospects buoying their future.
12. New York Knicks: Top 3 WAR Score: 43.2. GM: Billy King Kicking off Part Four of the Future WAR series is the New York Knicks. The Knicks have quietly stockpiled a sneaky good group of young players (amazingly, Aaron Gordon is still just 24 and eligible for this analysis) that comprise the majority of their roster. The players are up and down the position ladder, with some bigs (Nurkic, Hayes), wings (Gordon, Luke Kennard, Lonnie Walker) and guards (Dennis Smith Jr.), which bodes well for the Knicks to fill future roster holes with talent waiting in the wings. However, like other teams on this list, the Knicks have tough choices this upcoming offseason, as their top two WAR performers are both free agents who surely will garner offers from other teams.
11. Washington Wizards: Top 3 WAR Score: 43.8. GM: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Checking in just outside the top ten is the Washington Wizards. As a team, the majority of their roster was eligible for this analysis, as they have 12 players who met the sub-age 25 criteria. Their overall WAR score has been pushed on the cusp of top 10 status on the strength of three players: D’Angelo Russell, Bam Adebayo, and Jonathan Isaac, all projected to offer approximately 10 WAR or more, at minimum, over the next five seasons. Their most recent draftee, Luka Samanic, checks in at #4 on the WAR list for the Wizards, and the remaining gaggle of young guys offer some, but nothing to be really excited about, value over the next five seasons based on WAR projections. As owners of all their own firsts, plus the Spurs 2021 1st, in the next few years, they stand to add more options to the pile over the next few years.
10. Utah Jazz: Top 3 WAR Score: 44.2. GM: Elton Brand We have reached the top 10, and the countdown to the top team has begun! At #10 is the Utah Jazz, who not only have plenty of young players (12 in total under the age of 25), but also two that project to be very good pieces over the next five years. Surprisingly, though, neither of those two players is Marvin Bagley (4.3 WAR), Zach Collins (3.5 WAR), or last year’s lottery pick, Collin Sexton (-7.1 WAR…yikes). At #1 on the Jazz rankings is no surprise – it’s Jayson Tatum, who is the second highest rated player by WAR on this list so far behind only Lonzo Ball. At #2 is Jarrett Culver, who projected as one of the best two way players in the 2019 draft class and analytics project him to be a good player over the next five years relative to replacement level. The Jazz stand to move higher on this list if one of the aforementioned players, such as Bagley, Collins, or Sexton, make a leap in the next few years to join Culver and Tatum as centerpieces of the future.
9. Golden State Warriors: Top 3 WAR Score: 46.8. GM: Chris Mullin The first team in the single digit rankings is the Golden State Warriors. A perennial title contender, the Warriors have managed to work within the confines of drafting late to find very good value, as they have four players projected to provide positive value over the next five seasons. Two players – Mitchell Robinson and Josh Richardson – project to be good starters, and Thomas Bryant is not far behind (8.2 WAR) as a solid bench piece. The Warriors window may be slowly closing, but the young players in the ranks are propping the door open while their superstar core remains viable.
8. New Orleans Pelicans: Top 3 WAR Score: 48.5. GM: Brian Scalabrine Coming in at #8 is the New Orleans Pelicans, the team that dominated the 2019 D5 draft with five 1st round selections to add to their existing young core. Similar to other teams on this list, their roster is comprised mostly of players under the age of 25. At the top of the list is Triple J, the unicorn big who could be the next star stretch Center. Essentially tied for #2 are two point guards: Trae Young and Tyus Jones. Like other instances in this analysis, WAR as a projection does not think favorably of Young, as he’s projected to add less than half the value of a Lonzo Ball or Jayson Tatum in the same five year period. Of the recent Pelicans draftees from 2019, it’s the injury redshirt Okeke who projects to add the most value, and not lottery selected analytics darling Brandon Clarke. The Pelicans, though, have their own picks and still control multiple quality 1st round picks (2020 Mavericks, 2021 Heat) in future years to add talent to their promising roster.
7. Houston Rockets: Top 3 WAR Score: 48.9. GM: Charles Barkley Coming in at #7, and the last team before the top six in the future WAR series, is the Houston Rockets. They are, by far, the most unique team on this list, as their position in the top 10 is on the back of the player with the highest projected five year WAR by the CARMELO engine outside of James Harden: Giannis Antetokounmpo. On his own, the Greek Freak is projected to provide a staggering 52.9 WAR over the next five seasons. Not only is he well clear of the second closest player in the sub-age 25 pool (Ben Simmons at 49.8), but also he has single handled taken the Rockets from what would’ve been the only team with negative projected WAR from its young players to the team with arguably the best building block in D5. Only injuries can realistically stop the Greek Freak, and Houston is in the envious position of having the most dominant projected young player over the next five years.
That concludes Part Four of the WAR projection series! Tune in for the final release, Part 5, and the team standing on top of the D5 future pile, over the next few days.
12. New York Knicks: Top 3 WAR Score: 43.2. GM: Billy King Kicking off Part Four of the Future WAR series is the New York Knicks. The Knicks have quietly stockpiled a sneaky good group of young players (amazingly, Aaron Gordon is still just 24 and eligible for this analysis) that comprise the majority of their roster. The players are up and down the position ladder, with some bigs (Nurkic, Hayes), wings (Gordon, Luke Kennard, Lonnie Walker) and guards (Dennis Smith Jr.), which bodes well for the Knicks to fill future roster holes with talent waiting in the wings. However, like other teams on this list, the Knicks have tough choices this upcoming offseason, as their top two WAR performers are both free agents who surely will garner offers from other teams.
11. Washington Wizards: Top 3 WAR Score: 43.8. GM: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Checking in just outside the top ten is the Washington Wizards. As a team, the majority of their roster was eligible for this analysis, as they have 12 players who met the sub-age 25 criteria. Their overall WAR score has been pushed on the cusp of top 10 status on the strength of three players: D’Angelo Russell, Bam Adebayo, and Jonathan Isaac, all projected to offer approximately 10 WAR or more, at minimum, over the next five seasons. Their most recent draftee, Luka Samanic, checks in at #4 on the WAR list for the Wizards, and the remaining gaggle of young guys offer some, but nothing to be really excited about, value over the next five seasons based on WAR projections. As owners of all their own firsts, plus the Spurs 2021 1st, in the next few years, they stand to add more options to the pile over the next few years.
10. Utah Jazz: Top 3 WAR Score: 44.2. GM: Elton Brand We have reached the top 10, and the countdown to the top team has begun! At #10 is the Utah Jazz, who not only have plenty of young players (12 in total under the age of 25), but also two that project to be very good pieces over the next five years. Surprisingly, though, neither of those two players is Marvin Bagley (4.3 WAR), Zach Collins (3.5 WAR), or last year’s lottery pick, Collin Sexton (-7.1 WAR…yikes). At #1 on the Jazz rankings is no surprise – it’s Jayson Tatum, who is the second highest rated player by WAR on this list so far behind only Lonzo Ball. At #2 is Jarrett Culver, who projected as one of the best two way players in the 2019 draft class and analytics project him to be a good player over the next five years relative to replacement level. The Jazz stand to move higher on this list if one of the aforementioned players, such as Bagley, Collins, or Sexton, make a leap in the next few years to join Culver and Tatum as centerpieces of the future.
9. Golden State Warriors: Top 3 WAR Score: 46.8. GM: Chris Mullin The first team in the single digit rankings is the Golden State Warriors. A perennial title contender, the Warriors have managed to work within the confines of drafting late to find very good value, as they have four players projected to provide positive value over the next five seasons. Two players – Mitchell Robinson and Josh Richardson – project to be good starters, and Thomas Bryant is not far behind (8.2 WAR) as a solid bench piece. The Warriors window may be slowly closing, but the young players in the ranks are propping the door open while their superstar core remains viable.
8. New Orleans Pelicans: Top 3 WAR Score: 48.5. GM: Brian Scalabrine Coming in at #8 is the New Orleans Pelicans, the team that dominated the 2019 D5 draft with five 1st round selections to add to their existing young core. Similar to other teams on this list, their roster is comprised mostly of players under the age of 25. At the top of the list is Triple J, the unicorn big who could be the next star stretch Center. Essentially tied for #2 are two point guards: Trae Young and Tyus Jones. Like other instances in this analysis, WAR as a projection does not think favorably of Young, as he’s projected to add less than half the value of a Lonzo Ball or Jayson Tatum in the same five year period. Of the recent Pelicans draftees from 2019, it’s the injury redshirt Okeke who projects to add the most value, and not lottery selected analytics darling Brandon Clarke. The Pelicans, though, have their own picks and still control multiple quality 1st round picks (2020 Mavericks, 2021 Heat) in future years to add talent to their promising roster.
7. Houston Rockets: Top 3 WAR Score: 48.9. GM: Charles Barkley Coming in at #7, and the last team before the top six in the future WAR series, is the Houston Rockets. They are, by far, the most unique team on this list, as their position in the top 10 is on the back of the player with the highest projected five year WAR by the CARMELO engine outside of James Harden: Giannis Antetokounmpo. On his own, the Greek Freak is projected to provide a staggering 52.9 WAR over the next five seasons. Not only is he well clear of the second closest player in the sub-age 25 pool (Ben Simmons at 49.8), but also he has single handled taken the Rockets from what would’ve been the only team with negative projected WAR from its young players to the team with arguably the best building block in D5. Only injuries can realistically stop the Greek Freak, and Houston is in the envious position of having the most dominant projected young player over the next five years.
That concludes Part Four of the WAR projection series! Tune in for the final release, Part 5, and the team standing on top of the D5 future pile, over the next few days.