D5 OS Analytics (Top WAR) - Part Three - Born to Run
Sept 9, 2019 19:02:09 GMT
Walt Frazier, Andrei Kirilenko, and 2 more like this
Post by George Gervin on Sept 9, 2019 19:02:09 GMT
Here is Part Three of the D5 Future WAR Analytics! This batch are teams all over the D5 spectrum, with some having talent trending in the "elite" direction, whereas others have collected several solid prospects all while remaining competitive.
18. Denver Nuggets: Top 3 WAR Score: 30.2. GM: Alex English Starting off Part Three of the D5 Future Series is the Denver Nuggets. As a team that has been on the precipice of winning the title, they have a starting group that is part veteran (Harden, CP3, Harris), part ascending young guys (Siakim, WCS), as well as a couple of nice bench players. Siakim and WCS lead the way for the future squad in WAR, followed by Anunoby and newly minted Nugget Dylan Windler. Overall, the Nuggets have demonstrated not only an ability to remain competitive for a title, but also identify talent that projects to add value well above the average NBA player.
17. Oklahoma City Thunder: Top 3 WAR Score: 32.2. GM: Kevin Hollis Checking in at #17 is the OKC Thunder. With 75% of their roster comprised of players age 25 or younger, they are built to quickly pivot from pseudo-contention to reloading on the fly when players like Al Horford and Serge Ibaka move on. Four players stand out for OKC – Gary Harris, Monte Morris, Julius Randle, and Terry Rozier –as projected value solidly above replacement. Young guns like Wendell Carter Jr., Aaron Holiday, and Josh Jackson also project to be above the average NBA player in value over the next five years. OKC, though, faces tough choices this summer, as two of their top three future guys by WAR are pending free agents, and there’s the potential OKC could be further down the list after the offseason is over. OKC also earns the distinction of having the worst rated player by WAR on this entire list in Kevin Knox, who is sporting a -11.1 WAR over the next five years…ouch.
16. Minnesota Timberwolves: Top 3 WAR Score: 33.1. GM: Walt Frazier Almost at the middle of the D5 league pack is the Minnesota Timberwolves. Surprisingly, like OKC at #17, Minnesota has 75% of their active roster at age 25 or younger. The majority of the core players are above that cut line, but it is clear Minnesota has strived to maintain youth despite the veteran starting five. Minnesota is another example where the math doesn’t necessarily match up with the eye test. Case in point: Lonzo Ball, based on WAR, is seen as not only as the most valuable young guy for Minnesota, but more valuable than any other player thus far in these rankings. I’m sure Minnesota, having recently acquired Ball, would be thrilled if he reaches the WAR projections, but the eye test says he hasn’t produced anywhere near that value.
15. Indiana Pacers: Top 3 WAR Score: 34.8. GM: Larry Bird Right smack in the middle is the Indiana Pacers. At the beginning of the 2018-19 season, the Pacers would’ve been much further down the rankings with not nearly the volume of sub-age 25 players as they have now. However, through a series of trades, the Pacers have ended up with a boatload of projected cap space for the 2020 offseason and a decent group of young guys. Standing at the top of the Pacers rankings is Landry Shamet, who WAR projects to offer more value than Pascal Siakim over the next five seasons. Jarrett Allen is another nice piece, and four more young players are clustered around the 4 to 5 WAR level for the Pacers. The Pacers are set up nicely to pivot in the future in a number of directions, with two solid pieces in Allen and Shamet, and few others who could pop better than projections down the road.
14. Detroit Pistons: Top 3 WAR Score: 35.5. GM: Chauncey Billups The first team in the top half of these rankings is the Detroit Pistons. As the team that has danced near the top of the lottery rankings for the last few seasons, they have a couple of really promising players, starting with DeAndre Ayton. Thus far in these rankings, he is the highest rated bigman, and the third highest rated young player by WAR after Ball and Morant. A trio of guards – Coby White, Bruce Brown, and Jalen Brunson – follow Ayton in the WAR rankings for the Pistons, and each projects to be a solid contributor the next five years. The rest of the youth on this roster – which is heavily concentrated in sub-age 25 players – are players who could be more or less replaced by the average player in the NBA, and don’t project to offer much incremental value the next five seasons. With the Clippers’ 2020 1st round pick, plus their own, the Pistons stand to add impact youth players to their core very soon.
13. Milwaukee Bucks: Top 3 WAR Score: 37.3. GM: Glenn Robinson The last team in Part Three of our series – and at #13 overall – are the reigning D5 champions, the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks nearly had their top player, Anthony Davis, make the cut line, but he just turned 26 and therefore wasn’t eligible. Nevertheless, they still have plenty of quality young talent to hang their hat on as they move forward in their title defense. Four players are clustered in the 9 to 13 WAR range, with three of them either rising or established young guys in Myles Turner, Dejounte Murray, and Mikal Bridges, and the last being newly minted rookie Darius Garland. Given those four guys all play different roles for a team, the Bucks not only have solid young talent but also talent that’s not duplicative in value they bring to the team, and therefore offers a promising group on the way to help Davis and Bradley Beal defend the D5 mantle.
That concludes Part Three of the WAR projection series! Tune in for the release of Parts Four and Five, and the team standing on top of the D5 future pile, over the next few days.
18. Denver Nuggets: Top 3 WAR Score: 30.2. GM: Alex English Starting off Part Three of the D5 Future Series is the Denver Nuggets. As a team that has been on the precipice of winning the title, they have a starting group that is part veteran (Harden, CP3, Harris), part ascending young guys (Siakim, WCS), as well as a couple of nice bench players. Siakim and WCS lead the way for the future squad in WAR, followed by Anunoby and newly minted Nugget Dylan Windler. Overall, the Nuggets have demonstrated not only an ability to remain competitive for a title, but also identify talent that projects to add value well above the average NBA player.
17. Oklahoma City Thunder: Top 3 WAR Score: 32.2. GM: Kevin Hollis Checking in at #17 is the OKC Thunder. With 75% of their roster comprised of players age 25 or younger, they are built to quickly pivot from pseudo-contention to reloading on the fly when players like Al Horford and Serge Ibaka move on. Four players stand out for OKC – Gary Harris, Monte Morris, Julius Randle, and Terry Rozier –as projected value solidly above replacement. Young guns like Wendell Carter Jr., Aaron Holiday, and Josh Jackson also project to be above the average NBA player in value over the next five years. OKC, though, faces tough choices this summer, as two of their top three future guys by WAR are pending free agents, and there’s the potential OKC could be further down the list after the offseason is over. OKC also earns the distinction of having the worst rated player by WAR on this entire list in Kevin Knox, who is sporting a -11.1 WAR over the next five years…ouch.
16. Minnesota Timberwolves: Top 3 WAR Score: 33.1. GM: Walt Frazier Almost at the middle of the D5 league pack is the Minnesota Timberwolves. Surprisingly, like OKC at #17, Minnesota has 75% of their active roster at age 25 or younger. The majority of the core players are above that cut line, but it is clear Minnesota has strived to maintain youth despite the veteran starting five. Minnesota is another example where the math doesn’t necessarily match up with the eye test. Case in point: Lonzo Ball, based on WAR, is seen as not only as the most valuable young guy for Minnesota, but more valuable than any other player thus far in these rankings. I’m sure Minnesota, having recently acquired Ball, would be thrilled if he reaches the WAR projections, but the eye test says he hasn’t produced anywhere near that value.
15. Indiana Pacers: Top 3 WAR Score: 34.8. GM: Larry Bird Right smack in the middle is the Indiana Pacers. At the beginning of the 2018-19 season, the Pacers would’ve been much further down the rankings with not nearly the volume of sub-age 25 players as they have now. However, through a series of trades, the Pacers have ended up with a boatload of projected cap space for the 2020 offseason and a decent group of young guys. Standing at the top of the Pacers rankings is Landry Shamet, who WAR projects to offer more value than Pascal Siakim over the next five seasons. Jarrett Allen is another nice piece, and four more young players are clustered around the 4 to 5 WAR level for the Pacers. The Pacers are set up nicely to pivot in the future in a number of directions, with two solid pieces in Allen and Shamet, and few others who could pop better than projections down the road.
14. Detroit Pistons: Top 3 WAR Score: 35.5. GM: Chauncey Billups The first team in the top half of these rankings is the Detroit Pistons. As the team that has danced near the top of the lottery rankings for the last few seasons, they have a couple of really promising players, starting with DeAndre Ayton. Thus far in these rankings, he is the highest rated bigman, and the third highest rated young player by WAR after Ball and Morant. A trio of guards – Coby White, Bruce Brown, and Jalen Brunson – follow Ayton in the WAR rankings for the Pistons, and each projects to be a solid contributor the next five years. The rest of the youth on this roster – which is heavily concentrated in sub-age 25 players – are players who could be more or less replaced by the average player in the NBA, and don’t project to offer much incremental value the next five seasons. With the Clippers’ 2020 1st round pick, plus their own, the Pistons stand to add impact youth players to their core very soon.
13. Milwaukee Bucks: Top 3 WAR Score: 37.3. GM: Glenn Robinson The last team in Part Three of our series – and at #13 overall – are the reigning D5 champions, the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks nearly had their top player, Anthony Davis, make the cut line, but he just turned 26 and therefore wasn’t eligible. Nevertheless, they still have plenty of quality young talent to hang their hat on as they move forward in their title defense. Four players are clustered in the 9 to 13 WAR range, with three of them either rising or established young guys in Myles Turner, Dejounte Murray, and Mikal Bridges, and the last being newly minted rookie Darius Garland. Given those four guys all play different roles for a team, the Bucks not only have solid young talent but also talent that’s not duplicative in value they bring to the team, and therefore offers a promising group on the way to help Davis and Bradley Beal defend the D5 mantle.
That concludes Part Three of the WAR projection series! Tune in for the release of Parts Four and Five, and the team standing on top of the D5 future pile, over the next few days.