D5 OS Analytics (Top WAR) - Part Two - No Man's Land
Sept 8, 2019 13:00:08 GMT
Danny Longley, Shane Battier, and 1 more like this
Post by George Gervin on Sept 8, 2019 13:00:08 GMT
Here is Part Two of the D5 Future WAR Analytics! This batch includes teams with improving prospects compared to our first group, but they still have a ways to go to hope to field a strong team in the future.
24. Sacramento Kings: Top 3 WAR Score: 17.3. GM: Ghazny Dimalen Checking in at #24, and the bottom of Part Two, is the Kings. This roster has had a lot of turnover in the last year, as longterm staple Damian Lillard was shipped to the Bulls and a more balanced starting five is now in place for the Kings. As far as young players go, the Kings can hang their hat on two guys: Fred VanVleet and Dario Saric. Beyond those two, none of the other eligible players project to offer much, if any, value above a replacement level veteran. The Kings have a lot of depth, but if we’re talking young players, they are sorely lacking in quality future depth.
23. Chicago Bulls: Top 3 WAR Score: 18.2. GM: Shane Battier Right above the Kings in the rankings are their Lillard trade counterpart, the Bulls. Similar to the Hornets in Part One, most of us would probably take the star studded duo of Lillard and Kawhi Leonard as the core of our roster. However, that hasn’t stopped the Bulls from adding two solid young wings over the last two drafts: Josh Okogie and Tyler Herro. While they may have fewer players than other teams thus far in this analysis, they have the highest quality so far based on future projections, and at the very least can expect good contributions from their young wings down the road.
22. Toronto Raptors: Top 3 WAR Score: 21.4. GM: Bryan Colangelo The Raptors young players are a prime example of the Math vs. “Eye test” analysis when assessing players analytically. Despite our universal annoyance in D5 with Andrew Wiggins leaving potential greatness on the table to “chill”, he is at least on the court, unlike Markelle Fultz, who is tops on the Raptors young WAR pile. Wiggins, in fact, is not projected to add much more “value” than Bruno Caboclo over the next five seasons, who was famously described at his draft night by an analyst as “two years away…from being two years away.” The Raptors dealt Kyrie Irving this offseason to the Nets, and at least they were able to add some more young players to their core in Hunter, Reddish, and Kabengele.
21. Philadelphia 76ers: Top 3 WAR Score: 23.6. GM: Allen Iverson Checking in at #21 is the 76ers, who have an interesting cohort of young players on their roster. At the top of the WAR pile is Jakob Poeltl, who I admit is more famous to me for the Game of Zones name corrections in the Kawhi-DeMar trade episode than anything I can recall on the basketball court. Right behind him is Josh Hart, who projects as a solid bench guard or spot starter for a team. With other young players on the roster, such as TJ Leaf, Michael Porter Jr., and their two 2019 draftees, Goga Bitadze and PJ Washington, the 76ers could end up higher than these initial projections when future seasons roll around.
20. Miami Heat: Top 3 WAR Score: 24.3. GM: Shaquille O'Neal Rounding out the bottom ten teams is the Miami Heat. Similar to the Magic, the Heat have a starting unit chock full of highly paid veterans and a solid sixth man to ensure a competitive top half of the roster. At the top of the WAR heap for the Heat is not Domantas Sabonis, the key return in the John Collins trade, but Kevin Huerter, one of the analytics community’s favorite players. Huerter showed quite a bit for the Hawks in his first year in the league, bucking what was an underwhelming college career at Maryland to show promise in the Hawks “Warriors Lite” experiment. Sabonis was half of the PG-13 to OKC trade, and showed in his time with the Pacers he’s more than capable of starting in the NBA. Outside of those two, however, the Heat don’t have much in young talent that expects to provide anything but replacement value. Time will tell if Huerter and Sabonis end up carrying the torch as the Heat’s future core.
19. Dallas Mavericks: Top 3 WAR Score: 26.7. GM: Danny Longley Finishing up Part Two is the Dallas Mavericks. With sim god Dirk Nowitzki retired and headed home to Germany, the Mavericks are firmly in their rebuilding, youth future. Ironically, it’s the Mavericks most recent draftees – Ja Morant and Darius Bazley – who project to be the cornerstones of the future squad, not older draftees Malik Monk, or young additions via trade or free agency in Ivan Rabb and Cheick Diallo. Morant himself is the highest rated individual player thus far in these rankings by WAR, so if there’s something Dallas can hang its hat on, it’s that they have the best prospect in the bottom two tiers by analytics projections.
That concludes Part Two of the WAR projection series! Tune in for the release of Parts Three through Five, and the team standing on top of the D5 future pile, over the next few days.
24. Sacramento Kings: Top 3 WAR Score: 17.3. GM: Ghazny Dimalen Checking in at #24, and the bottom of Part Two, is the Kings. This roster has had a lot of turnover in the last year, as longterm staple Damian Lillard was shipped to the Bulls and a more balanced starting five is now in place for the Kings. As far as young players go, the Kings can hang their hat on two guys: Fred VanVleet and Dario Saric. Beyond those two, none of the other eligible players project to offer much, if any, value above a replacement level veteran. The Kings have a lot of depth, but if we’re talking young players, they are sorely lacking in quality future depth.
23. Chicago Bulls: Top 3 WAR Score: 18.2. GM: Shane Battier Right above the Kings in the rankings are their Lillard trade counterpart, the Bulls. Similar to the Hornets in Part One, most of us would probably take the star studded duo of Lillard and Kawhi Leonard as the core of our roster. However, that hasn’t stopped the Bulls from adding two solid young wings over the last two drafts: Josh Okogie and Tyler Herro. While they may have fewer players than other teams thus far in this analysis, they have the highest quality so far based on future projections, and at the very least can expect good contributions from their young wings down the road.
22. Toronto Raptors: Top 3 WAR Score: 21.4. GM: Bryan Colangelo The Raptors young players are a prime example of the Math vs. “Eye test” analysis when assessing players analytically. Despite our universal annoyance in D5 with Andrew Wiggins leaving potential greatness on the table to “chill”, he is at least on the court, unlike Markelle Fultz, who is tops on the Raptors young WAR pile. Wiggins, in fact, is not projected to add much more “value” than Bruno Caboclo over the next five seasons, who was famously described at his draft night by an analyst as “two years away…from being two years away.” The Raptors dealt Kyrie Irving this offseason to the Nets, and at least they were able to add some more young players to their core in Hunter, Reddish, and Kabengele.
21. Philadelphia 76ers: Top 3 WAR Score: 23.6. GM: Allen Iverson Checking in at #21 is the 76ers, who have an interesting cohort of young players on their roster. At the top of the WAR pile is Jakob Poeltl, who I admit is more famous to me for the Game of Zones name corrections in the Kawhi-DeMar trade episode than anything I can recall on the basketball court. Right behind him is Josh Hart, who projects as a solid bench guard or spot starter for a team. With other young players on the roster, such as TJ Leaf, Michael Porter Jr., and their two 2019 draftees, Goga Bitadze and PJ Washington, the 76ers could end up higher than these initial projections when future seasons roll around.
20. Miami Heat: Top 3 WAR Score: 24.3. GM: Shaquille O'Neal Rounding out the bottom ten teams is the Miami Heat. Similar to the Magic, the Heat have a starting unit chock full of highly paid veterans and a solid sixth man to ensure a competitive top half of the roster. At the top of the WAR heap for the Heat is not Domantas Sabonis, the key return in the John Collins trade, but Kevin Huerter, one of the analytics community’s favorite players. Huerter showed quite a bit for the Hawks in his first year in the league, bucking what was an underwhelming college career at Maryland to show promise in the Hawks “Warriors Lite” experiment. Sabonis was half of the PG-13 to OKC trade, and showed in his time with the Pacers he’s more than capable of starting in the NBA. Outside of those two, however, the Heat don’t have much in young talent that expects to provide anything but replacement value. Time will tell if Huerter and Sabonis end up carrying the torch as the Heat’s future core.
19. Dallas Mavericks: Top 3 WAR Score: 26.7. GM: Danny Longley Finishing up Part Two is the Dallas Mavericks. With sim god Dirk Nowitzki retired and headed home to Germany, the Mavericks are firmly in their rebuilding, youth future. Ironically, it’s the Mavericks most recent draftees – Ja Morant and Darius Bazley – who project to be the cornerstones of the future squad, not older draftees Malik Monk, or young additions via trade or free agency in Ivan Rabb and Cheick Diallo. Morant himself is the highest rated individual player thus far in these rankings by WAR, so if there’s something Dallas can hang its hat on, it’s that they have the best prospect in the bottom two tiers by analytics projections.
That concludes Part Two of the WAR projection series! Tune in for the release of Parts Three through Five, and the team standing on top of the D5 future pile, over the next few days.