2019 Draft - Stay Away Prospects
Mar 17, 2019 14:32:06 GMT
Ian Noble, Andrei Kirilenko, and 5 more like this
Post by George Gervin on Mar 17, 2019 14:32:06 GMT
Similar to the top 6 value chart I made a few weeks back, this is a also a top 6...of players to stay away from and, arguably, draft at your own risk. I base this on purely looking at the traditional counting stats, advanced stats, as well as body type and draft projection. Without further ado, the six players to stay away from are:
- Cam Reddish, Duke: Reddish, the perpetual third wheel to the Zion and RJ show at Duke, is routinely mocked by multiple draft sites and outlets as a top 5 pick. You’ll see comps thrown out of Rudy Gay, Paul George, Dale Ellis, and even early shades of Kawhi. However, Reddish has shown through this year he is far away from being any of those players. His projection right now based on stats — traditional and advanced— is more of a taller Ben McLemore, or a college version of Mario Hezonja. Reddish struggles to maintain efficiency when driving or shooting, he avoids contact like the plague, his demeanor on the court is poor a lot of the time, and his defense— which some point out his decent steals rate and defensive BPM as positive signs reaffirming his stock— is vastly overrated when compared to the two real defensive studs on Duke, Zion Williamson and Tre Jones. In short, a guy projected by almost every outlet as a top 5 pick who in reality should be more like a pick 20-30 draftee at best is going to disappoint someone big time.
- Bol Bol, Oregon: On paper, Bol should be a top three prospect in this draft. When he was playing, at 7’2” with a 7’8” wingspan, he was on pace to average for the whole season 55% FG with 56% from 3 and almost 3 bpg. He would’ve been the definition of a stretch 5 unicorn that teams crave in this switchable, shooting era. However, Bol as a prospect has two major red flags: the first is his frame, the second is his attitude. Bol is not a 7’2” who figures to pack on muscle and end up something like Joel Embiid or Rudy Gilbert with a real three point shot; he has narrow shoulders, hips, and doesn’t project to carry much more weight beyond his currently listed 225 lbs. Add in the fact he suffered a foot fracture early on this season and had injury trouble in HS as well, he doesn’t strike someone as a player who will stay healthy. With respect to his attitude, like Reddish he has been routinely criticized for floating too much and not imposing his will on opponents despite his gifts. A team looking to spend a lotto pick on a guy should not want a tall version of Andrew Wiggins or JR Smith from a mentality standpoint. Bol is all over the board on projections, but all the factors mentioned point to a late 1st rounder at best.
- Darius Garland, Vanderbilt: I will preface with I thought he was going to show stats and traits worthy of being the top PG in this class and a guy who would end up as the next big time PG. After five games, though, Garland blew out his knee and a hallmark of his game— sneaky athleticism— now had a huge anvil hanging over it till draft prep. More concerning, though, was Garland’s projections on the defensive end of the floor. He’s not a small PG at 6’4” 180 lbs, but he played like one to the tune of a 0.0 defensive BPM, a 106.3 defensive rating, and effort that was disappointing. No one doubts his offensive skill set and shooting prowess, but in this league you can’t be considered a high end player without being at least league average on the end of the floor that isn’t your calling card. The small sample size means caution should be taken here with Garland, but he feels like a massive gamble based on his top 10 projection.
- Kevin Porter Jr., USC: Another one and done to draft at your own risk, Porter earlier in the season before conference play was seen as a top 10 pick. He has a smooth game and plays solid defense, with scouts hoping he’d continue that in conference play. The big red flags with Porter though began to crystallize during conference season. First, he wa suspended by USC for detrimental conduct. As a 5* star recruit, you have to screw up badly to warrant that kind of treatment from your school, and immediately it casts doubt on the character of Porter Jr. to mesh within a team environment. Second, his game fell off a cliff, so much so that outside of his meager 9 ppg and 4 rpg in 23 mpg, he offers nothing else by way of counting stats and is a terrible (51%) FT shooter implying poor projections to expand his range at the next level. The PAC 12 is also, by far, the weakest Power 5 conference in basketball, and if Porter can’t instill his will now on guys who are athletically not on his level, why should anyone believe he can in the pros?
- Nassir Little, UNC: Similar to Garland, I had high hopes for Little as he was one of the few guys based on HS play who had dominated Barrett and held his own vs. Zion. He got to Chapel-Hill, and started off the bench, which I chalked up to the Roy Williams, hide the one and done 5* in hopes that he stays special, but as the season ground on, it became obvious...Little doesn’t know how to play. His lack of offensive and defensive awareness is remarkable, and he is far too robotic in his movements and reactions to demonstrate he is a guy capable of giving quality minutes in his rookie contract. He is young and physically gifted, but for a guy billed early on as a top 5 talent and still is hanging around the late lotto/mid first based on projections, if you’re expecting a guy who will contribute to your team in the next 2-3 years, I’d say don’t bet on it.
- Tyler Herro, Kentucky: This is a guy who has worked his way up the board compared to the first five on this list who have dropped down. However, Herro is now getting the Huerter effect and is rising up on the strength of very good to elite shooting splits (47/37/94), but...proceed with caution. Herro, unlike Huerter, is not 6’7” with a near 7’ wingspan to get off shots at ease; he’s 6’4” with a T-Rex wingspan (6’3.5”) to match. With longer, more athletic, and frankly more physical defenders at the next level, I have real doubts he can maintain his shooting splits— despite the extra spacing and actions in the NBA— with his frame being so small and his game being built on shooting. He won’t offer you defense, passing, rebounding, or even really court awareness— he is a sniper, but one who is on the smaller side and not a guy like Huerter that he’s being compared to.