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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Jan 12, 2019 15:41:26 GMT
Look, you're going to get to the bottom of this and see that I'm asking for a high rating. I'll admit that up front and hopefully it doesn't surprise anyone. You all already know that Sabonis has amazing advanced stats and tremendous impact, even though I'll tell it all to you again. You also already know that Sabonis comes off of the bench and only plays about 26 minutes per game, and it is lingering in the back of your mind that a 22 year-old non-starter can't possibly deserve too much of a boost. I know that is the obstacle I have to overcome, and I hope my analysis can do just that. Before I get into the numbers, I just want to say something about the comparisons I am going to do. Every single player I include in the comparison is rated higher than what I am suggesting for Domas. I've tried not to cherry-pick any particular players who probably deserve decreases, and I've really only avoided comparisons to one guy (Anthony Davis). Lastly, I want to point out that I've removed any stats that depend on minutes played. So you aren't going to see points per game, total win shares, etc. You can all google this stuff, he averages about 15/10. But, I also want to say that the stats I am presenting aren't some type of small sample size. Domantas has played 25 minutes per game for 40 games this season. These stats aren't a quick fluke that are going to be lower at the end of the season. They represent his true capability and talent. There is a lot to dig into here, and I hope the numbers can sway you.  Now, let me break this down a bit. Shooting:Sabonis is top 5 in the league among qualified players in FG%. He is better than all of these comparable players. Sabonis is #2 in the league (behind DeAndre Jordan) in True Shooting %. He is better than all of these comparable players. Sabonis has shot 5/7 from three on the season, but he isn't really a three point shooter so I have not highlighted any stats there. Rebounding:
Sabonis is much better than all comparable players in offensive rebounding %. He pulls down 12% of all misses. Sabonis is equal to Joel Embiid for total rebounding, but Sabonis' feels a bit better since Embiid feasts on defensive rebounds only. Sabonis is #8 in the league in total rebounding %. Passing:
This is my favorite part of his game. He is bested by only Blake Griffin among the comparables in the passing department. If you watch him play, Sabonis just seems like he always knows where everyone is and has a ridiculous basketball IQ. He always seems to make the right play. Defense:
This is his strong suit. While not racking up a ton of blocks, Sabonis' insane basketball IQ and positioning has helped him become one of the best defenders in the league. He gets more steals than anyone on the list. Sabonis is #9 in the league in defensive rating. This is better than guys like DeAndre Jordan, Steven Adams, and Marc Gasol. The other guys in my comparable players above are not even in the top 20. Offense:
Sabonis is #13 in the league in offensive rating. Yes, he is literally top 13 in both offense and defense. This is better than any of the comparable players above. Win Shares per 48:
Sabonis is #4 in the league in WS/48. He is behind only Anthony Davis, Giannis, and Rudy Gobert. The players directly after him are Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, and Nikola Jokic. Pretty good company to be in. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Look, I understand there is a lot of information there to digest. His stats literally suggest that he is a top 10 player in the league, but I also acknowledge that he is not the starter for a reason. In today's modern league, Myles Turner gives the Pacers blocking and three point shooting, which is exactly what most teams are looking for. Domantas, on the other hand, does not just slide into any lineup but rather needs to be the focal point. The offense runs through Sabonis, and the defense is anchored by Sabonis. He is the best player on the Pacers, who are the 3rd best team in the East. If you don't think that's true, then look at Oladipo's impact. When Sabonis is on the floor, the Pacers outscore opponents by 19 points every 100 possessions. When Oladipo is on the floor, the Pacers outscore opponents by only 2 points every 100 possessions. I guess I am trying to reiterate here that none of my stats above are exaggerated and Sabonis is seriously that impactful when he is on the floor. His impact is much greater than even any of the comparable players listed, some of whom are rated in the 90s. Sabonis is flat out good, and he is leading the Pacers to new frontiers. I hope you take some time to read my analysis and really consider giving Sabonis a fair rating. Suggested rating: 86 |
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Post by George Gervin on Jan 12, 2019 15:53:32 GMT
Sabonis has been really, really good this year and probably makes most Pacers fans cringe that Turner is on a near max deal for the next four years.
84
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Larry Bird
 Indiana Pacers
Starter
Posts: 1,672
Mar 5, 2024 13:29:26 GMT
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Post by Larry Bird on Jan 12, 2019 16:09:19 GMT
Or every Magic fan cringe for trading off Sabonis and Oladipo.
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Post by Walt Frazier on Jan 12, 2019 17:47:29 GMT
I really appreciate the amount of insight in the first post. But I think there's an element we do need to factor in, which is that total impact on the game. Someone playing 25 mpg just isn't deserving of the impact they will have on our sim if they are rated at an 86. I think he's playing really well, but that's still a little too high of an impact-rating for a 25mpg guy.
83.5 for me. Do it longer, go higher. Get more minutes and keep up similar rates, definitely go up higher.
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Jan 12, 2019 17:57:23 GMT
I really appreciate the amount of insight in the first post. But I think there's an element we do need to factor in, which is that total impact on the game. Someone playing 25 mpg just isn't deserving of the impact they will have on our sim if they are rated at an 86. I think he's playing really well, but that's still a little too high of an impact-rating for a 25mpg guy. 83.5 for me. Do it longer, go higher. Get more minutes and keep up similar rates, definitely go up higher. I understand your point, but I also would like to point out that Sabonis has 5.0 win shares on the season. The next highest Pacer has 3.6 win shares. He only plays 25 minutes per game, but his impact is significantly greater than all of his teammates who play 30+ minutes. And the Pacers are third in the East. |
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Post by Walt Frazier on Jan 12, 2019 19:10:34 GMT
I really appreciate the amount of insight in the first post. But I think there's an element we do need to factor in, which is that total impact on the game. Someone playing 25 mpg just isn't deserving of the impact they will have on our sim if they are rated at an 86. I think he's playing really well, but that's still a little too high of an impact-rating for a 25mpg guy. 83.5 for me. Do it longer, go higher. Get more minutes and keep up similar rates, definitely go up higher. I understand your point, but I also would like to point out that Sabonis has 5.0 win shares on the season. The next highest Pacer has 3.6 win shares. He only plays 25 minutes per game, but his impact is significantly greater than all of his teammates who play 30+ minutes. And the Pacers are third in the East. The point is valid and very well made. I just think NBA Live isn't sophisticated enough to figure it out, tbh. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's where I'm coming from. |
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Post by Jerry West on Jan 12, 2019 22:46:39 GMT
There's a reason he doesn't play more minutes. 82 imo
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Post by Jared Montini on Jan 12, 2019 23:43:52 GMT
82 needs more pt to earn a mid 80 rating
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Post by Hanamichi Sakuragi on Jan 13, 2019 8:56:25 GMT
86
attributes represent skills. If a player is "a little bit" skilled, we should give him what he deserves.
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Post by Jerry West on Jan 13, 2019 9:22:20 GMT
86 attributes represent skills. If a player is "a little bit" skilled, we should give him what he deserves. Again, if he was that "skilled" he would be playing more. The Pacers are trying to win the East, why would they have their 2nd best player play only 25 minutes? We acting like Kuzma defense is bad but he is a God next to Sabonis. |
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Jan 13, 2019 9:40:02 GMT
86 attributes represent skills. If a player is "a little bit" skilled, we should give him what he deserves. Again, if he was that "skilled" he would be playing more. The Pacers are trying to win the East, why would they have their 2nd best player play only 25 minutes? We acting like Kuzma defense is bad but he is a God next to Sabonis. Sabonis is one of the best team defenders in the league. He doesn’t rack up blocks but he has an insane impact when he is on the court. And the Pacers have found a rotation that works for them and are having great success. As I stated above, he has a bigger impact than any player playing 30+ minutes on the team. He is legitimately their best player. |
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Post by Hanamichi Sakuragi on Jan 13, 2019 9:56:15 GMT
86 attributes represent skills. If a player is "a little bit" skilled, we should give him what he deserves. Again, if he was that "skilled" he would be playing more. The Pacers are trying to win the East, why would they have their 2nd best player play only 25 minutes?We acting like Kuzma defense is bad but he is a God next to Sabonis. Because they are winning. Basketball is not a simple mathematic formula wherein the players who are playing the most have the most impact to winning. If you want to discuss his impact much deeper, we have numbers to deduce. But if you are one of those who will fight for what they believe in without any statistical basis, then I will stop here. |
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Post by Jerry West on Jan 13, 2019 11:33:43 GMT
Winning? Last time I checked they aren't first in their conference. Maybe the Lakers will have more sucess if LeBron only plays 20 minutes.
And saying he is their best player is such a disrespect to Oladipo. Sabonis is garbage on defense, watch the games. Oladipo is an All-Defensive type of player, not to meantion he is also better on offense and one of the clutchest players in the league. I can't even believe I'm arguing about this.
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Jan 13, 2019 13:46:56 GMT
Winning? Last time I checked they aren't first in their conference. Maybe the Lakers will have more sucess if LeBron only plays 20 minutes. And saying he is their best player is such a disrespect to Oladipo. Sabonis is garbage on defense, watch the games. Oladipo is an All-Defensive type of player, not to meantion he is also better on offense and one of the clutchest players in the league. I can't even believe I'm arguing about this. The Pacers literally have the same record as the Warriors. I'd call that winning lol. Saying he is garbage on defense is a tremendous exaggeration and is straight up #fakenews. Sabonis is literally 9th in the league in defensive rating. And to be clear, defensive rating is points allowed per 100 possessions, so the Pacers' slower pace does definitely help Sabonis crack the top 10. But Oladipo, who you claim is better, is 17th in the league in defensive rating. So the Pacers have a better defense with Sabonis on the floor than with Oladipo on the floor. And Sabonis is #10 in offensive rating today. Just to clarify again what that means... When Sabonis is on the floor, you can expect a top 10 in-the-league points per 100 possession. AND When Sabonis is on the floor, you can expect a top 10 in-the-league points allowed per 100 possessions. And again, even playing only 26 minutes per game, Sabonis has significant more win shares than anyone else on the Pacers. Even if you want to claim he shouldnt be 85+ due to his playtime, his 15/10/3 on incredible shooting and great defense alone deserves an 83. It's when you start looking at the advanced stats and impact that he gets up to an 86 IMO. By the way, if you haven't noticed, Oladipo sucks this year. |
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Post by George Gervin on Jan 13, 2019 14:50:34 GMT
Winning? Last time I checked they aren't first in their conference. Maybe the Lakers will have more sucess if LeBron only plays 20 minutes. And saying he is their best player is such a disrespect to Oladipo. Sabonis is garbage on defense, watch the games. Oladipo is an All-Defensive type of player, not to meantion he is also better on offense and one of the clutchest players in the league. I can't even believe I'm arguing about this. The Pacers top FIVE best defensive lineup combinations according to NBA Advanced Stats all include Sabonis in the middle, and they are significantly better than the best defensive lineup where Turner is swapped in for Sabonis (98 defensive rating vs. 96 for the worst of the five with Sabonis, whereas the other 4 lineups have defensive ratings around 90). The only two reasons Turner starts over Sabonis is, to one point Andrei Kirilenko already mentioned, one he didn’t, is Turner shoots from three at much greater volume and efficiency than Sabonis, and for Indiana to start Sabonis over Turner signals to fans and others they made a mistake giving Turner a near max contract this past summer |
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Post by Ian Noble on Jan 13, 2019 14:50:54 GMT
81 Sorry Josh, I think giving an 85 or 86 to a player who averages 22.9 25.5 minutes per game is a really bad idea. Instead of comparing some legends of the game to Sabonis's cherry-picked stats, let's compare Montrezl Harrell, who just got upgraded to an 80 OVR rating:  On balance Sabonis is not better than Montrezl, based on the stats you chose. |
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Jan 13, 2019 15:25:37 GMT
81 Sorry Josh, I think giving an 85 or 86 to a player who averages 22.9 minutes per game is a really bad idea. Instead of comparing some legends of the game to Sabonis's cherry-picked stats, let's compare Montrezl Harrell, who just got upgraded to an 80 OVR rating: On balance Sabonis is not better than Montrezl, based on the stats you chose. Huh? Sabonis averages 26 minutes a game. And most of his stats are better than Montrezl. Sabonis is better efficiency, rebounding, assists, win shares, defensive rating. They are similar in scoring, Montrezl gets more steals and blocks. Both are +19 net rating. And you rated Montrezl an 82  |
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Jan 13, 2019 15:33:35 GMT
I guess I’ll just say that I don’t think Sabonis and Montrezl are even close skill-wise. Sabonis rebounds and passes and runs the team. Montrezl unfortunately is a roleplayer at best.
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Post by Ian Noble on Jan 13, 2019 15:42:13 GMT
Huh? Sabonis averages 26 minutes a game. And most of his stats are better than Montrezl. Sabonis is better efficiency, rebounding, assists, win shares, defensive rating. They are similar in scoring, Montrezl gets more steals and blocks. Both are +19 net rating. So this season Sabonis is on 25.5 minutes per game, I read his career number of 22.9. Not much different anyway, and all the other stats on that chart are correct. Comparing Sabonis's Per100 and Adv stats to five of the best bigs in the game today doesn't hold up when you also include another low-minutes, high-production guy like Montrezl. And fair enough, Montrezl should probably be an 80, but Sabonis shouldn't be much higher, certainly not 5 or 6 OVR that's nuts. |
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Jan 13, 2019 15:51:50 GMT
Huh? Sabonis averages 26 minutes a game. And most of his stats are better than Montrezl. Sabonis is better efficiency, rebounding, assists, win shares, defensive rating. They are similar in scoring, Montrezl gets more steals and blocks. Both are +19 net rating. So this season Sabonis is on 25.5 minutes per game, I read his career number of 22.9. Not much different anyway, and all the other stats on that chart are correct. Comparing Sabonis's Per100 and Adv stats to five of the best bigs in the game today doesn't hold up when you also include another low-minutes, high-production guy like Montrezl. And fair enough, Montrezl should probably be an 80, but Sabonis shouldn't be much higher, certainly not 5 or 6 OVR that's nuts. Idk man, they are extremely different players. The only comparison I can see is that they are both efficient and are super impactful? I personally don’t think Montrezl is even in the same ballpark as Sabonis skill-wise, but that’s why we vote on these things. |
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Post by Alex English on Jan 13, 2019 16:32:32 GMT
I think Josh himself knows there's no way Sabonis is getting an 86. His first post basically says that. It's especially interesting since he tends to skew towards to lower end of things in the rest of the stock watch section. That said, I really do like Sabonis, even back to when he was at Gonzaga. D5 has always been pretty cautious with young up and coming players though, we usually make them prove it over a full season at least.
I'll vote 83. I think that's generous enough at this point.
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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Jan 13, 2019 16:58:17 GMT
18.5 assist rate is awesome for a center but his 16.9 tov rate is really concerning (I might be missing someone but I think that's tops among centers).
Obviously insanely efficient this year, though he doesn't shoot 3s and is just good on fts, not lights out. Very good rebounder as well.
Defensively he does not protect the rim or get a ton of steals, he's a little below average.
Defensive rating at this point in the season is borderline useless. His defensive real plus minus is below Kelly Olynk and just above Zach Collins and Ersan Ilyasvoa.
82
If he keeps up the efficiency through the season I'd be willing to go a couple points higher. Same if he cuts down the turnovers
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Kevin Hollis
Former Thunder GM for 7 years
All Star
Posts: 2,838 
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Post by Kevin Hollis on Jan 13, 2019 17:42:26 GMT
83
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Post by Mark Price on Jan 13, 2019 18:09:19 GMT
82
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Jan 15, 2019 5:39:34 GMT
I like him. I actually like him alot. 82 would be an 81 but that's the best stock watch I've ever seen lol.
That said unless he starts or plays starter minutes like Lou Will he's gonna get screwed on rating.
He's facing a similar situation as Tyreke Evans is for my team. Just a shit load of sorta equally talented players in the front court rotation. Turner/Sabonis is a hell of a 1-2 at the center spot and in another era they'd be playing PF and C. It's just not gonna happen when they have to match up against small ball teams.
Honestly I don't think enough people are talking about the Pacers as a team that could make a big splash on the trade market.
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Post by George Gervin on Jan 17, 2019 18:02:06 GMT
I like him. I actually like him alot. 82 would be an 81 but that's the best stock watch I've ever seen lol. That said unless he starts or plays starter minutes like Lou Will he's gonna get screwed on rating. He's facing a similar situation as Tyreke Evans is for my team. Just a shit load of sorta equally talented players in the front court rotation. Turner/Sabonis is a hell of a 1-2 at the center spot and in another era they'd be playing PF and C. It's just not gonna happen when they have to match up against small ball teams. Honestly I don't think enough people are talking about the Pacers as a team that could make a big splash on the trade market. They have so many expiring contracts and I agree they are on the cusp of making the JV conference even more interesting. I like the idea of them bringing home another Indiana guy in Mike Conley to play next to Dipo |
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Post by James Kay on Jan 17, 2019 18:14:59 GMT
83.5
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Jan 19, 2019 16:58:06 GMT
Thread closed after 13 votes. New rating = 83
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Post by Shaquille O'Neal on Feb 7, 2019 14:23:20 GMT
i changed my mind to 86
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Kevin Hollis
Former Thunder GM for 7 years
All Star
Posts: 2,838
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Post by Kevin Hollis on Feb 7, 2019 14:30:26 GMT
lol
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