5 Brutal Big Downs - Probably will inspire new stockwatch
Apr 17, 2018 3:43:19 GMT
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Apr 17, 2018 3:43:19 GMT
Anyone can spin their way out of an NBA rotation by being spectacularly terrible (fine, not anyone; 534 men played in the NBA this season, and they’re all miles better at basketball than anyone who will read this), but it takes a special kind of awful to soak up minutes all season while stinking up the joint.
Two simple rules limit our options. First, no rookies allowed. They’re not supposed to be good yet, and it’s no fun ragging on 19-year-olds. Second, we’re instating a 1500-minute minimum. That’s 60 games of 25 minutes, so it means guys who are playing starter or heavy bench minutes. Everyone else is fair game.
The All-NBA Terrible Team:
1. Point Guard - Point guard — Jarrett Jack, Knicks (Mudiay)
Jack barely makes the 1500-minute cut-off, but he’s started 56 of his 60 games with New York. And the sad thing is, he probably deserves to. Jack is a Knicks point guard pupu platter representative. This spot actually goes to him, Frank Ntilikina, and Emmanuel Mudiay, an unholy triumverate of awful for the Knickerbockers. Together the trio combined to play 3641 minutes of terrible, horrible, no good, very bad basketball.
Jack is at 49% true shooting and under 30% from deep, and he’s been cut by the talent-starved Nets, Hawks, and Pelicans in the last two years alone. He also had the league’s most hilariously unexpected triple-double this January in a loss against the Bulls, which I suppose is only really unexpected if you haven’t watched Chicago defend point guards this season.
Somehow, Mudiay and Ntilikina have been worse. Ntilikina is a rookie, so we won’t dog him too much. And that’s good, because his 88 offensive rating, 36% field goal percentage, and 43% true shooting all rank dead last among qualified players at every position.
Mudiay has more offensive rebounds then threes, and he almost has as many turnovers as free throw attempts. He sports a 90 offensive rating and takes 21 shots per 100 possessions despite an abysmal 43% true shooting percentage and under 20% from downtown. He’s -15 per 100 possessions and a shocking -12.5 on/off, stunningly awful considering the guys are taking his place. And that’s not even counting the 18 minutes a game Mudiay played off the bench in 42 Nuggets games, possibly costing them the playoffs.
Mudiay began his professional career in China. Hope he still has their number.
Dishonorable mention: Tyler Ulis, Kris Dunn
2. Shooting guard — Avery Bradley, Pistons & Clippers
This section is going to hurt. Bradley has always been a personal darling, one of my absolute favorite non-stars to watch. But numbers don’t lie, and the numbers say Bradley was awful this year.
Technically Bradley missed the minutes cut-off at 1433, but he averaged 31 minutes a game while healthy enough to play, so we’re giving him the spot. On the surface, Bradley looked decent. He averaged 14 points a game, made 37% of his threes, and was a pesky on-ball defender as always.
Dig a little deeper, and it’s not so pretty. Bradley made just 44% of his twos, leading to 41% field goal percentage and under 50% true shooting. After last season’s anomaly when he led the Celtics in rebounds, he went back to not rebounding at all. AB had just 4.5 rebounds and assists per game combined.
Still, all of that could’ve left Bradley as a solid 3-and-D role player — if he’d have just accepted that role. Instead, Bradley played like he was the star, chucking with a career-high usage rate, and that led to his worst turnover rate since his sophomore season. And despite all that usage, he still had just a 9.6 PER, worst in the entire NBA for players with 20 or more field goal attempts per 100 possessions. He was the worst volume player in the league, with a worse PER than names like Derrick Rose, Isaiah Thomas, and Emmanuel Mudiay.
But the defense though!!
Bradley had a 110 defensive rating, worst of his career. He was -6.2 on/off for Detroit per 100 possessions, and he lost the trust of his teammates and coaching staff. For all Bradley’s pesky on-ball skills that can drive Steph Curry crazy, he’s just not a very good team defender. He gambles and gets out of position and doesn’t switch well. Maybe it was the injury, but Bradley played this season like it was five simultaneous games of 1-on-1.
Basically, Avery Bradley was Josh Jackson:
That’s… not good. The numbers are astonishingly close, other than the massive rebounding advantage in Jackson’s favor. Bradley is a far better shooter, but even that gap is narrowed by free throw rate. It’s not great for a two-time All-Defensive veteran to put up the same numbers as a 20-year-old rookie wing not named Jayson Tatum, especially one second to last in the entire NBA in win shares.
Maybe Bradley was a product of the Boston system. Maybe he was just never whole this year with all the injuries. But he’s a free agent now, and he better hope someone still believes in him.
Dishonorable mention: J.R. Smith, Garrett Temple
3. Small forward — Andrew Wiggins, Timberwolves
Where do we even start?
Wiggins is averaging 18 and 8… if you combine rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. He has horrible 44/33/64 shooting splits, career worsts in field goal and free throw percentage, and a career worst 51% true shooting. One of the few truly valuable parts of his game, free throws, have all but disappeared. After hitting 76% of his freebies in each of his first three seasons, Wiggins is down to 64% and barely attempting half as many free throws as last season.
Wiggins is completing his fourth season. What exactly has he improved at?
Remarkable consistency, really. Andrew Wiggins is the Tim Duncan of overpriced mediocrity.
Let’s try to find some positives. Wiggins has missed one game in four seasons, especially impressive durability considering his coach. He’s shooting more threes and the fewest twos of his career, so that’s a step in the right direction. His 33% shot from deep is, sadly, an improvement on his career percentage. And his 113 defensive rating is technically a career best. Yay?
Wiggins leads Minnesota in field goal attempts. Minnesota has Karl-Anthony Towns and Jimmy Butler. Maybe you’ve heard of them? Every time Wiggins takes his 16 shots a game, that’s 16 shots KAT and Butler aren’t taking. The Wolves have the fourth best offensive rating in the league, but don’t credit Wiggins for that. His 101 offensive rating is bottom 20 among qualified players and dead last among guys with 2500 minutes, edging out Harrison Barnes and Carmelo Anthony. He continues to log a massive minutes load, but Wiggins is basically like having two Garrett Temples but on a max contract.
Oh right, that max contract. Technically it hasn’t kicked in yet, but all that means is that Minnesota is still on the hook for $147 million more over the next five years, pre-committing to an extension no one else could’ve come within tens of millions of dollars this summer even if they wanted to.
A list of NBA players currently owed more guaranteed money than Andrew Wiggins: Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, John Wall, end of list. Three MVPs, John Wall, and Andrew Wiggins. Woof.
Andrew Wiggins is not good. His 13.1 PER is below league average. He shoots more mid-range jumpers than anything else and makes 34% of his attempts there. Brandon Ingram isn’t good either. But Ingram is already better at literally everything than Andrew Wiggins:
Is Andrew Wiggins the worst starting small forward in the NBA?
No, probably not. But considering what Wiggins costs and what he contributes and takes away from a team with two top 20 players, he gets the benefit of the doubt. Basketball Reference does player similarity scores, and Wiggins’s best comp in NBA history is Red Mamba. At 98% similarity, Andrew Wiggins is Matt Bonner. Which, honestly, just feels mean to Bonner.
Twenty-eight NBA players have played at least 2500 minutes this season. Wiggins ranks dead last among them in win shares, and the closest guy to him has literally twice as many.
Comically, Wiggins actually sat on that extension offer last summer, and now he apparently wants out of Minnesota.
Free Andrew Wiggins.
That’s not a plea, that’s his price. He’s free. Please. Take him.
Dishonorable mention: Stanley Johnson, Wesley Johnson
4. Power forward — Dragan Bender, Suns
It wouldn’t be right to make a Worst Team All-NBA and not pick anyone from the actual worst team.
Bender has the worst offensive rating of any qualified non-rookie at 95. He also sports the worst defensive rating of any 2000-minute player at 114. He’s 7'1". Bender averages only six rebounds per 36 minutes. He’s 7'1". He’s made only 41% of his twos and dunked only eight times, just once every 254 minutes. And, lest you forget, he’s 7'1".
Dragan Bender has a 6.8 PER. He has a higher turnover rate than defensive rebounding or usage rate. He tends to float around the perimeter on offense and wait for a chance to catch and shoot, but he shoots an abysmal 15% from mid-range.
This isn’t totally fair to Bender. He’s only 20, and no one actually thought he’d be good yet. But, oh boy, is he ever not good yet.
Dishonorable mention: Jarell Martin, Zach Randolph
5. Center — Bismack Biyombo, Magic
Biyombo’s at 1466 minutes but should cross the 1500 minute threshold in the final two games. We’re sneaking him in because there just aren’t a ton of options at center — only 23 qualified big men, fewer than one per team. In 2018, if you’re an awful center, you aren’t getting 1500 minutes.
Biyombo is not horrible, just regular bad, but on a $17 million contract. He still fouls and turns the ball over at crazy rates, and he’s -11.5 on/off per 100 possessions even though the Magic are giving minutes to human beings named Khem Birch, Rodney Purvis, and Jamel Artis. Biyombo shoots a horrible 30% outside of three feet, but he takes 47% of his shots there.
If Biyombo just stuck to rim running, defending, and crashing the boards, he’d be useful. Alas. He’ll always have that Raptors playoff series against the Cavs.
Biyombo makes $17 million again next season, then has a $17 million player option the year after. I’m guessing he’s gonna pick that up.
Dishonorable mention: The Lopez Twins, Jusuf Nurkic
Two simple rules limit our options. First, no rookies allowed. They’re not supposed to be good yet, and it’s no fun ragging on 19-year-olds. Second, we’re instating a 1500-minute minimum. That’s 60 games of 25 minutes, so it means guys who are playing starter or heavy bench minutes. Everyone else is fair game.
The All-NBA Terrible Team:
1. Point Guard - Point guard — Jarrett Jack, Knicks (Mudiay)
Jack barely makes the 1500-minute cut-off, but he’s started 56 of his 60 games with New York. And the sad thing is, he probably deserves to. Jack is a Knicks point guard pupu platter representative. This spot actually goes to him, Frank Ntilikina, and Emmanuel Mudiay, an unholy triumverate of awful for the Knickerbockers. Together the trio combined to play 3641 minutes of terrible, horrible, no good, very bad basketball.
Jack is at 49% true shooting and under 30% from deep, and he’s been cut by the talent-starved Nets, Hawks, and Pelicans in the last two years alone. He also had the league’s most hilariously unexpected triple-double this January in a loss against the Bulls, which I suppose is only really unexpected if you haven’t watched Chicago defend point guards this season.
Somehow, Mudiay and Ntilikina have been worse. Ntilikina is a rookie, so we won’t dog him too much. And that’s good, because his 88 offensive rating, 36% field goal percentage, and 43% true shooting all rank dead last among qualified players at every position.
Mudiay has more offensive rebounds then threes, and he almost has as many turnovers as free throw attempts. He sports a 90 offensive rating and takes 21 shots per 100 possessions despite an abysmal 43% true shooting percentage and under 20% from downtown. He’s -15 per 100 possessions and a shocking -12.5 on/off, stunningly awful considering the guys are taking his place. And that’s not even counting the 18 minutes a game Mudiay played off the bench in 42 Nuggets games, possibly costing them the playoffs.
Mudiay began his professional career in China. Hope he still has their number.
Dishonorable mention: Tyler Ulis, Kris Dunn
2. Shooting guard — Avery Bradley, Pistons & Clippers
This section is going to hurt. Bradley has always been a personal darling, one of my absolute favorite non-stars to watch. But numbers don’t lie, and the numbers say Bradley was awful this year.
Technically Bradley missed the minutes cut-off at 1433, but he averaged 31 minutes a game while healthy enough to play, so we’re giving him the spot. On the surface, Bradley looked decent. He averaged 14 points a game, made 37% of his threes, and was a pesky on-ball defender as always.
Dig a little deeper, and it’s not so pretty. Bradley made just 44% of his twos, leading to 41% field goal percentage and under 50% true shooting. After last season’s anomaly when he led the Celtics in rebounds, he went back to not rebounding at all. AB had just 4.5 rebounds and assists per game combined.
Still, all of that could’ve left Bradley as a solid 3-and-D role player — if he’d have just accepted that role. Instead, Bradley played like he was the star, chucking with a career-high usage rate, and that led to his worst turnover rate since his sophomore season. And despite all that usage, he still had just a 9.6 PER, worst in the entire NBA for players with 20 or more field goal attempts per 100 possessions. He was the worst volume player in the league, with a worse PER than names like Derrick Rose, Isaiah Thomas, and Emmanuel Mudiay.
But the defense though!!
Bradley had a 110 defensive rating, worst of his career. He was -6.2 on/off for Detroit per 100 possessions, and he lost the trust of his teammates and coaching staff. For all Bradley’s pesky on-ball skills that can drive Steph Curry crazy, he’s just not a very good team defender. He gambles and gets out of position and doesn’t switch well. Maybe it was the injury, but Bradley played this season like it was five simultaneous games of 1-on-1.
Basically, Avery Bradley was Josh Jackson:
That’s… not good. The numbers are astonishingly close, other than the massive rebounding advantage in Jackson’s favor. Bradley is a far better shooter, but even that gap is narrowed by free throw rate. It’s not great for a two-time All-Defensive veteran to put up the same numbers as a 20-year-old rookie wing not named Jayson Tatum, especially one second to last in the entire NBA in win shares.
Maybe Bradley was a product of the Boston system. Maybe he was just never whole this year with all the injuries. But he’s a free agent now, and he better hope someone still believes in him.
Dishonorable mention: J.R. Smith, Garrett Temple
3. Small forward — Andrew Wiggins, Timberwolves
Where do we even start?
Wiggins is averaging 18 and 8… if you combine rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. He has horrible 44/33/64 shooting splits, career worsts in field goal and free throw percentage, and a career worst 51% true shooting. One of the few truly valuable parts of his game, free throws, have all but disappeared. After hitting 76% of his freebies in each of his first three seasons, Wiggins is down to 64% and barely attempting half as many free throws as last season.
Wiggins is completing his fourth season. What exactly has he improved at?
Remarkable consistency, really. Andrew Wiggins is the Tim Duncan of overpriced mediocrity.
Let’s try to find some positives. Wiggins has missed one game in four seasons, especially impressive durability considering his coach. He’s shooting more threes and the fewest twos of his career, so that’s a step in the right direction. His 33% shot from deep is, sadly, an improvement on his career percentage. And his 113 defensive rating is technically a career best. Yay?
Wiggins leads Minnesota in field goal attempts. Minnesota has Karl-Anthony Towns and Jimmy Butler. Maybe you’ve heard of them? Every time Wiggins takes his 16 shots a game, that’s 16 shots KAT and Butler aren’t taking. The Wolves have the fourth best offensive rating in the league, but don’t credit Wiggins for that. His 101 offensive rating is bottom 20 among qualified players and dead last among guys with 2500 minutes, edging out Harrison Barnes and Carmelo Anthony. He continues to log a massive minutes load, but Wiggins is basically like having two Garrett Temples but on a max contract.
Oh right, that max contract. Technically it hasn’t kicked in yet, but all that means is that Minnesota is still on the hook for $147 million more over the next five years, pre-committing to an extension no one else could’ve come within tens of millions of dollars this summer even if they wanted to.
A list of NBA players currently owed more guaranteed money than Andrew Wiggins: Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, John Wall, end of list. Three MVPs, John Wall, and Andrew Wiggins. Woof.
Andrew Wiggins is not good. His 13.1 PER is below league average. He shoots more mid-range jumpers than anything else and makes 34% of his attempts there. Brandon Ingram isn’t good either. But Ingram is already better at literally everything than Andrew Wiggins:
Is Andrew Wiggins the worst starting small forward in the NBA?
No, probably not. But considering what Wiggins costs and what he contributes and takes away from a team with two top 20 players, he gets the benefit of the doubt. Basketball Reference does player similarity scores, and Wiggins’s best comp in NBA history is Red Mamba. At 98% similarity, Andrew Wiggins is Matt Bonner. Which, honestly, just feels mean to Bonner.
Twenty-eight NBA players have played at least 2500 minutes this season. Wiggins ranks dead last among them in win shares, and the closest guy to him has literally twice as many.
Comically, Wiggins actually sat on that extension offer last summer, and now he apparently wants out of Minnesota.
Free Andrew Wiggins.
That’s not a plea, that’s his price. He’s free. Please. Take him.
Dishonorable mention: Stanley Johnson, Wesley Johnson
4. Power forward — Dragan Bender, Suns
It wouldn’t be right to make a Worst Team All-NBA and not pick anyone from the actual worst team.
Bender has the worst offensive rating of any qualified non-rookie at 95. He also sports the worst defensive rating of any 2000-minute player at 114. He’s 7'1". Bender averages only six rebounds per 36 minutes. He’s 7'1". He’s made only 41% of his twos and dunked only eight times, just once every 254 minutes. And, lest you forget, he’s 7'1".
Dragan Bender has a 6.8 PER. He has a higher turnover rate than defensive rebounding or usage rate. He tends to float around the perimeter on offense and wait for a chance to catch and shoot, but he shoots an abysmal 15% from mid-range.
This isn’t totally fair to Bender. He’s only 20, and no one actually thought he’d be good yet. But, oh boy, is he ever not good yet.
Dishonorable mention: Jarell Martin, Zach Randolph
5. Center — Bismack Biyombo, Magic
Biyombo’s at 1466 minutes but should cross the 1500 minute threshold in the final two games. We’re sneaking him in because there just aren’t a ton of options at center — only 23 qualified big men, fewer than one per team. In 2018, if you’re an awful center, you aren’t getting 1500 minutes.
Biyombo is not horrible, just regular bad, but on a $17 million contract. He still fouls and turns the ball over at crazy rates, and he’s -11.5 on/off per 100 possessions even though the Magic are giving minutes to human beings named Khem Birch, Rodney Purvis, and Jamel Artis. Biyombo shoots a horrible 30% outside of three feet, but he takes 47% of his shots there.
If Biyombo just stuck to rim running, defending, and crashing the boards, he’d be useful. Alas. He’ll always have that Raptors playoff series against the Cavs.
Biyombo makes $17 million again next season, then has a $17 million player option the year after. I’m guessing he’s gonna pick that up.
Dishonorable mention: The Lopez Twins, Jusuf Nurkic