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Post by Walt Frazier on Apr 1, 2018 3:04:30 GMT
Current: 84
Bledsoe probably deserved the decrease he got last year, if for no other reason than playing on the Suns was not conducive to his ratings. Very bad team, they didn't even like playing him b/c he was honestly a bit too good, made them a little too good, couldn't tank as well. Such a weird relationship they had there, for whatever reason.
With the Bucks this year, 65 games
31:30mpg, 17.7p, 3.9r, 4.9a, 2.1s!, .6b
46.9! / 34.1 / 78.2
So, the big things that pop out to me are, after seeing his steals really dip down to 1.4 last year, he's at a career high 2.1 this year. 4 boards is nice for a PG, and 5 assists on a team with Giannis shows his playmaking is as good as it's been, even though his career high assists were more like 6.1-3 apg (in a few more mpg too though). Shooting 47% from the field is also great for him, and likely a result of not being the focal point / lead player on the team like he was in PHX.
Not looking for a huge increase but it's been a bit since he was decreased and he's a different player now than he was when he got decreased. If nothing else he'd need a look, but I think his stats (basically 18 - 4 - 5 - 2 steals, avg 3pt & ft with above average fg) and athleticism (maybe not what it once was but he's still an above-average all-around athlete for a PG) gets him to an 86.
Suggested: 86
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Post by Jared Montini on Apr 1, 2018 3:15:04 GMT
84
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Post by Walt Frazier on Apr 1, 2018 4:05:00 GMT
Just keep in mind if nothing else...he's 3rd in the league in steals, 2nd on a per minute basis out of the leaders.
He needs almost 2 full points just to accurately rate his Steal rating. If we want to account for increased efficiency from 3 and especially from the field compared to last year when he got docked down to an 84, we reaaaaaaally need those 2 (or even more) points.
Just don't ignore the steals. If he stays the same on this vote he's going to get unfairly beat up somewhere else if we can't account for those steal points somehow.
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Kevin Hollis
Former Thunder GM for 7 years
All Star
Posts: 2,838
Dec 16, 2022 11:27:40 GMT
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Post by Kevin Hollis on Apr 1, 2018 6:21:34 GMT
84
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Post by Charles Barkley on Apr 1, 2018 6:25:59 GMT
Yes but this year to last year he has lost 3.5 Points per game, a full rebound per game, and 1.4 assists per game.And he is shooting 77.8 % from the FT line compared to 84.7 % last season.
His box plus minus is a full 1.5 less this year to last. His offensive win shares are down, total win shares are down, by big numbers -- 1.7 OWS less this year, and 0.7 WS overall less this year.
While his steal percentage has increased by only 1.3 %
And the argument that his time in Phoenix this season decreased his stats can't be made since he played 3 games for a total of 83 minutes.
Bledsoe is in a weird spot. He is on a new team where he is a second, and most of the times, third option. It is expected his numbers would decrease.
I think an 84 is fine.
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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Apr 1, 2018 7:04:15 GMT
Idk I think he's actually been worse than I thought this year.
83
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Post by Ian Noble on Apr 1, 2018 7:59:12 GMT
Sorry mate I don't see it, I've been watching plenty of Bucks games too.
84
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Glenn Robinson
Milwaukee Bucks
Starter
Posts: 1,226
Mar 2, 2024 5:20:47 GMT
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Post by Glenn Robinson on Apr 1, 2018 14:11:02 GMT
83
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Apr 1, 2018 14:42:35 GMT
Bledsoe is weird to me. I don’t think he actually had any sort of positive impact on the Bucks. In fact, the Bucks actually have a net negative 107 ORtg versus 108 DRtg with Bledsoe on the floor. As Walt said, his shooting is up, but he is being assisted on shots at an insanely higher percentage (28% vs 12% for twos, 80% vs 50% for threes).
We need to be careful not to cherrypick stats as well. His assists are down but he still averages 3 TOs per game. I guess I just need to see an actual positive impact before bumping up the rating. The Bucks are 41-35 which is not that great in the weak East.
I’ll go 83 as well.
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Post by Walt Frazier on Apr 1, 2018 16:34:06 GMT
Yes but this year to last year he has lost 3.5 Points per game, a full rebound per game, and 1.4 assists per game.And he is shooting 77.8 % from the FT line compared to 84.7 % last season. As a minor factor, he is playing 1.5 minutes less per game. And, Giannis is the Bucks. Of course Bledsoe is going to have less assists and he is on a better team than the Suns and being used differently. You know as well as anyone, his FT% decrease is about half of an overall point. The rebound might take away about half or 3/4 point. The assists might be another one, max. So, we're down about 2.5 points.
The FG% matters.
Right now he's at 30 for Inside. He shoots 67% at the rim. He needs to be about a 75. That's 3 OVR points. We could take about 1.5 points off of his Dunk since we know that doesn't affect things as much.
He's a 70 for FG, which is about right. Just looking at the numbers and impact and # of shots he takes a game, a player like him should probably be a 75, which is close to adding that half an ovr point back in. And, 3pt could take about 3 points so that's the rest of that half point. So, FG/3PT/Inside/dunk update stuff, we're up 2 there, down .5 overall.His box plus minus is a full 1.5 less this year to last. His offensive win shares are down, total win shares are down, by big numbers -- 1.7 OWS less this year, and 0.7 WS overall less this year. We don't really have a way of representing most of this stuff in our actual ratings, but I know people use it to vote. OK. Does this mean he's basically a smaller reason for his team winning this year than he was last year? Wouldn't that make a ton of sense when you go from a putrid team where you're probably the best overall player at that point to a team with freaking Giannis on it? I dunno. I really haven't bought into some of the advanced statistics if I"m honest, so I probably don't "understand" it as well as some of you, b/c some if it seems overly analytical to me, and I like stats.While his steal percentage has increased by only 1.3 % This one just seems silly to me because we've never used it to base our ratings. Bledsoe went from 1.38 spg in 33mpg to 2.04 spg in 31.5mpg. He's 3rd in the NBA in spg at 2.04. His steal per 48 is 3.13 which is 2nd in the NBA. His st/to is at .69 this year, and st/pf is at .83. Last year all of those #'s were 1.38/g, 2.01/48m, .41 st/to & .55 st/pf. Sure looks like he's improved a lot in the Steals department. And if you still believe he hasn't, then you have to at least admit we took him down too far. To keep with my rating point argument, he's at a 60, but is 3rd in the league or 2nd in the league per 48. He needs to be literally damn close to a 90. That's 2 OVR points. All told, we're about +1.5 right now.And the argument that his time in Phoenix this season decreased his stats can't be made since he played 3 games for a total of 83 minutes. Yea, I'm not really making this argument.Bledsoe is in a weird spot. He is on a new team where he is a second, and most of the times, third option. It is expected his numbers would decrease. Agreed. I'm trying to say he's not built correctly right now, and the things that need fixed, all told, require at least a 1 point increase if not 2.I think an 84 is fine.
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Post by James Kay on Apr 1, 2018 16:53:43 GMT
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Post by Walt Frazier on Apr 1, 2018 16:58:50 GMT
Bledsoe is weird to me. I don’t think he actually had any sort of positive impact on the Bucks. In fact, the Bucks actually have a net negative 107 ORtg versus 108 DRtg with Bledsoe on the floor. As Walt said, his shooting is up, but he is being assisted on shots at an insanely higher percentage (28% vs 12% for twos, 80% vs 50% for threes). I don't know that this is a good or bad thing, but the result is that his %'s have shot up significantly and as I explained in the post where I quoted Charles, his ratings need fixed, if nothing else the Inside is way off (too low) and the Dunk needs to come down some. FG & 3pt could use modest bumps. FT needs to come down. eFG in PHX last year was 48.5 and it's up to 53.1 this year. TS% from .563 to .575. Improved one way or another,no matter how we look at it.We need to be careful not to cherrypick stats as well. This, from you, literally makes me LOL. Maybe you've gotten better at it but you were the king of posting Stockwatch threads for a while with only Points, Reb, Ast in them. Leaving out defensive stats and/or %'s. Anyway, moving on from that...His assists are down but he still averages 3 TOs per game. Yes, 3.0 this year, 3.4 last year. Granted, the rate between Ast/TO is worse but he decreased both, so if you want to call attention to the TO, at least acknowledge he decreased TO's too. I guess I just need to see an actual positive impact before bumping up the rating. The Bucks are 41-35 which is not that great in the weak East. I’ll go 83 as well. I laid out some rating specific arguments, dropping him a point is a bit insane but you're not alone. I think y'all are looking at some things in a pretty weird way if you truly think he deserves a decrease. But, we all have different opinions of course. I just can't see past the ratings he has, and the ones he's "deserved" (I've even laid out areas for decreases). He deserves about a 1.5 increase OVR in my opinion.
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Post by Walt Frazier on Apr 1, 2018 17:19:27 GMT
I could see Middleton higher than an 84, I was actually looking at him for another reason recently. That said, from our rating-category standpoint... ORB% (Bledsoe 2.6 vs KMidd 1.7) DRB% (Bledsoe 11.7 vs KMidd 15.0) TRB% (Bledsoe 7.2 vs KMidd 8.4) All told, Bledsoe gets a small OReb%, MIddleton the DReb advantage, with Middleton's overall Reb Categories probably about one OVR point higher. AST% (Bledsoe 25.1 vs KMidd 17.5) Bledsoe has the advantage pretty big. All told, Bledsoe would have about one OVR point higher. STL% (Bledsoe 3.3 vs KMidd 2.0) Bledsoe gets 2 a game in 31mpg, KMidd 1.4 a game in 36.5+ mpg. Bledsoe gets about 2 OVR points here. BLK% (Bledsoe 1.6 vs KMidd 0.6) Bledsoe probably gets about one OVR point here, maybe slightly more. TOV% (Bledsoe 16.2 vs KMidd 11.8) This usually sits somewhere in the Pass/Handle/OAware. It's a little less defined but would even out some of the pass advantage Bledsoe just gained, and among other stats could even out or give Middleton an advantage in OAware or help balance out the normally-perceived advantage a player like Bledsoe might have in Handle, etc. OWS (Bledsoe 2.3 vs KMidd 4.4) OAware to Middleton again DWS (Bledsoe 2.3 vs KMidd 2.1) DAware to Bledsoe OBPM (2.0 Bledsoe vs 1.7 KMidd) Hmm, OAware to Bledsoe here though DBPM (-.3 Bledsoe vs -1.3 to KMidd) More DAware to Bledsoe VORP (2.0 Bledsoe vs 1.7 KMidd) 3pt% KMidd gets about half an OVR point. FT% KMidd gets about half an OVR point (88ish vs 78ish). Just over half an OVR. 2/3 point basically. FG (2pt% is adv Bledsoe (53.9 vs 52.1) and efg is about equal (52.8 vs 53.0)...TS% is Middleton's but just by a bit (58.2 vs 57.2). Anyway, I think both guys could probably be 85-86. I still think those giving Bledsoe an 83 or even the stay-the-same 84 are being unfair to the Steals/game and the improvements he's made from the FG/Inside (or at least, what we need to fix in his ratings compared to his last change.
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Kevin Hollis
Former Thunder GM for 7 years
All Star
Posts: 2,838
Dec 16, 2022 11:27:40 GMT
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Post by Kevin Hollis on Apr 1, 2018 17:59:51 GMT
No offense Walt, but "those people" is everyone but yourself. I think an 84 is a pretty solid rating for Bledsoe. Getting to an 86 seems really high for him. Weird position on his rating. I feel I am pretty fair on ratings for the most part too. I think another capella thread would have been a better idea.
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Post by Walt Frazier on Apr 1, 2018 18:54:56 GMT
No offense Walt, but "those people" is everyone but yourself. I think an 84 is a pretty solid rating for Bledsoe. Getting to an 86 seems really high for him. Weird position on his rating. I feel I am pretty fair on ratings for the most part too. I think another capella thread would have been a better idea. I don't take offense. We all put up threads that don't get traction sometimes. I feel like I've actually been super transparent in my thought process and backed it up as well as I can. I just haven't seen an argument that made me say "oh, hmm. That's a good point" yet. Especially not the 83's. End of the day, Bledsoe at the very least needs re-worked, I just happen to have looked at every rating individually and feel he could use about a 1.5 point increase. I decided to vote 86, others could vote 85, some at 84...83's make me scratch my head. I'm often higher on my own players than others are, this is why I'm the one that ended up with these players, IMO. Anyway, not holding anything against anyone I just am not looking forward to lowering him if that happens, as I dislike poor rating changes (ones that make a player look like something he's not). It has happened before though and will continue happening, not much I can do except explain my POV like I've done here, but I don't expect everyone to just vote like I'm saying they should. I just really don't get the 83's. Anyway, at the very end of the day, I'll do whatever the league says for his rating just like every other player that comes through here.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Apr 3, 2018 1:33:19 GMT
Victim of expectations. When the Bucks got Bledsoe I expected them to run roughshod over the East. They couldn't even make headway when the Cavs were playing absolutely terrible basketball.
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Post by James Kay on Apr 6, 2018 21:57:07 GMT
Lol. It would be funny if Bledsoe ends up lower because of this thread. I think Bledsoe has the potential to be fantastic. The Bucks NEED to get some actual coaching, and any sort of serviceable big man. I think a lot of their players like Bledsoe, Middleton, Snell, even Giannis are really suffering from a lack of modern coaching.
I'm gonna go with an 84.5 for now, but I think if the Bucks organization gets their shit together the pieces will all shine brighter, including Bledsoe.
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Post by Alex English on Apr 6, 2018 22:53:10 GMT
84 is fine for him, and he's closer to needing a decrease than an increase imo. He's not deserving of a high 80s rating.
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Post by Hanamichi Sakuragi on Apr 7, 2018 23:18:38 GMT
85
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Post by JR Wiles on Apr 8, 2018 1:29:44 GMT
Bledsoe is not better than IT so I'll go...
82..
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Post by Walt Frazier on Apr 8, 2018 2:31:03 GMT
Bledsoe is not better than IT so I'll go... 82.. ....why do I let you suck me in? 15.6p / 2.1r / 5.0a / 3.2to / 0.4s / 0.1b - 38.3 / 32.7 / 92.1 vs 17.9p / 3.8r / 5.0a / 2.9to / 2.1s / 0.6b - 47.3 / 34.6 / 79.0 IT2 up top Bledsoe below btw, those are IT2 Lakers #'s only, and Bledsoe Bucks #'s only. Please, explain. I'd actually have a pretty damn argument that if IT2 is an 82 from the league, we're criminally underrating Bledsoe at an 84. IT2 gets basically one OVR point advantage with FT (13 points) Bledsoe gets... 6 for 3pt 25-30 for block 65 ish for steal slightly better dribble or oaware based on TO's equal assists/pass probably one OVR point (15 points) for rebound. If you want to get into athletic stats I'm pretty sure Bledsoe will still win those too but I won't even go that far...if you want to get into DAware Bledsoe would get probably at least 2 OVR points there too. So, Bledsoe should be around 9-10 OVR points better than what IT2 has been this year. Please tell me how it's unfair to rate him 2 better? Y'all don't make any damn sense. 2.1 steals is elite. He's shooting 47.3% as a guard, that's pretty damn good. 0.6 blocks for a guard is very good. Anyway.....what the fuck.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Apr 8, 2018 3:53:57 GMT
Bledsoe is not better than IT so I'll go... 82.. Celtics IT yeah. This year. No fucking way.
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Post by Chauncey Billups on Apr 8, 2018 6:08:39 GMT
I'd rather see IT lowered than Bledsoe raised
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Post by Walt Frazier on Apr 8, 2018 12:28:26 GMT
FTR, yes that particular comparison the bigger problem is IT2 is too high. I don't think Bledsoe needs to be 10 points higher than IT2s 82 lol.
I still maintain Bledsoe could use an 85-86, but IT2's game (especially when it's not clicking and not efficient) does not show up in our ratings very well.he should be mid to high 70s right now.
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Apr 8, 2018 13:31:54 GMT
Walt 86 Hanamichi 85 James 84.5 Jared 84 Kevin 84 Charles 84 Ian 84 Alex 84 Josh 83 Brian 83 Glenn 83
JR 82
Average = 83.85
12 votes and appears to be heading towards no change.
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Post by JR Wiles on Apr 8, 2018 14:03:33 GMT
More and more you guys want to rate players with updates when in all honesty certain situations etc should always be factored in beforehand.
I don't think its fair to lower a guy in a season he returns from a major injury. Not only that but the guy was traded twice, going to a young team that is more about their core young guys and improving rather than winning. IT is still a NBA starter and AllStar guy. His stats are so messed up that you don't see the truth. Yeah he's had to get back to the game. I'm sure it's been tough. Add in 2 new teams and trying to get into rotations within what a team is doing and you get a small sample of IT. Given starter minutes and getting the trust back in your game is vital.
You guys give up on guys as much as you hope rookies are good as advertised.
ITs rating should not change until at least a full season. Next season he will get raised and it will be an I told you so situation. I guess until then I'll just sit back and wait because the season is a failure anyways.
We do need to put in considerations when updating ratings after major injuries and time away from the court.
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Post by Walt Frazier on Apr 8, 2018 14:40:14 GMT
Walt 86Hanamichi 85 James 84.5 Jared 84 Kevin 84 Charles 84 Ian 84 Alex 84 Josh 83 Brian 83 Glenn 83 JR 82Average = 83.85 12 votes and appears to be heading towards no change. FTR, I've been treating these like "ReWorks", just so no one thinks I'm only doing it for Bledsoe.
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Post by Walt Frazier on Apr 8, 2018 14:41:28 GMT
More and more you guys want to rate players with updates when in all honesty certain situations etc should always be factored in beforehand. I don't think its fair to lower a guy in a season he returns from a major injury. Not only that but the guy was traded twice, going to a young team that is more about their core young guys and improving rather than winning. IT is still a NBA starter and AllStar guy. His stats are so messed up that you don't see the truth. Yeah he's had to get back to the game. I'm sure it's been tough. Add in 2 new teams and trying to get into rotations within what a team is doing and you get a small sample of IT. Given starter minutes and getting the trust back in your game is vital. You guys give up on guys as much as you hope rookies are good as advertised. ITs rating should not change until at least a full season. Next season he will get raised and it will be an I told you so situation. I guess until then I'll just sit back and wait because the season is a failure anyways. We do need to put in considerations when updating ratings after major injuries and time away from the court. For me, it's not about giving up on IT2. It's making his D5 version more representative of the RL version. He can get a bump just as quickly if he turns back into 2016-17 IT2 next season.
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Post by JR Wiles on Apr 8, 2018 16:34:29 GMT
Still updating ratings now and before the playoffs is a personal issue.
That's the point as well.
There needs to be a deadline for rating changes as well.
My opinion on how to keep things fair. I mean adjusting ratings too late just ruins things. A team can be a playoff team...then ratings get updated at a late season time and the team responds badly and the gm may not have enough time to adjust or make the needed moves before the real games begin.
Again though..my opinion.
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Post by Chauncey Billups on Apr 8, 2018 17:29:52 GMT
Still updating ratings now and before the playoffs is a personal issue. That's the point as well. There needs to be a deadline for rating changes as well. My opinion on how to keep things fair. I mean adjusting ratings too late just ruins things. A team can be a playoff team...then ratings get updated at a late season time and the team responds badly and the gm may not have enough time to adjust or make the needed moves before the real games begin. Again though..my opinion. I think the point of the changes is so that they reflect the players current level of play. It needs to be a reflection of reality, and the reality is, IT has been playing pretty bad for an entire season. If you ask me, he should have been lowered again. If he rebounds, he'll be raised. But currently, his rating doesn't reflect his current level of play, and I think that's a problem. Thread got a little off topic. Since I'm here, I'll vote 84 for Bledsoe
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